Sunday, December 30, 2018

2018 NFL Week 17 Picks

Well, that's not how I wanted to finish the season. My last minute flip flopping of a pick failed me as usual with the Raiders continuing this late season resurgence, so now I'm basically done in my picks pool. I also have a love/hate relationship with Week 17 since it's obviously exciting with playoff races and draft pick implications, but it's also difficult to make decisions not knowing exactly what players are going to be on the field. Thus, I'll keep this short since I hate taking this many favorites again when underdogs have covered 127 times to 112 based on the CBS Sports lines. Week 17 is wacky.

Last week: 5-11
Season total: 120-120

Road Favorites

Eagles -6.5 at Redskins

Apparently Nick Foles really does turn into Peyton Manning in the Winter, and with a chance at the playoffs still in play, he's facing the skeleton crew that remains in Washington.

Chargers -2.5 at Broncos

A lot of the lines are strange this week, and this is one that should be easy with Denver's implosion and Vance Joseph on the hot seat. LA can get the #1 seed if they win and KC loses, so there won't be any starters resting here.
An undermanned Denver offense is a prime opportunity for Derwin James to wrap up DROY.

Sunday, December 23, 2018

2018 NFL Week 16 Picks

Happy Holidays! I probably shouldn't have laid so many points with Tennessee in what was sure to be a low scoring game, but the pick I'm really mad at myself for switching is not taking the points with Baltimore +4.5...I don't like how many favorites I'm taking today, but maybe all of the upsets recently means they're due to have a big week.

Last week: 8-8
This week: 0-2
Season total: 115-111

Road Favorites

Vikings -5.5 at Lions

Per Rich Hribar, Detroit has the second lowest scoring rate in the league over their last eight games, and Minnesota still has the lowest touchdown rate allowed on the season.

Bears -3.5 at 49ers

I switched this to San Francisco briefly before coming to my senses because although they've been hot at home the last couple of games, they haven't faced a defense nearly of this caliber.

Chiefs -2.5 at Seahawks

I know, I know, night games in Seattle are among the toughest in the league, and Kansas City's unreliable defense somehow blew a two touchdown lead late last week. This is almost like a mini bye week for Andy Reid, though, so I have a feeling that they'll come out on fire to make up for that loss to try and regain control of the #1 seed. Having Eric Berry increase his snap count after sitting out the second half of that collapse should help this defense's road struggles, as well.

Saturday, December 15, 2018

2018 NFL Week 15 Picks

These 9-7 weeks might not win me my pick 'em pool, but as my favorite fantasy football podcast Living the Stream would say, you could do worse. I didn't get off to my usual start as the fishy line didn't hold up despite a 14 point lead late in the fourth quarter, but I feel pretty good about this slate of games.

This week: 0-1
Last week: 9-7
Season total: 107-102

Road Favorites

Texans -6.5 at Jets 

Per Rich Hribar, New York has allowed 183.3 rushing yards per game over their last four, the worst in the league. And guess what Houston likes to do? Run the ball.

Patriots -2.5 at Steelers

Another Hribar note is that New England has beaten Pittsburgh five straight times by an average of 12.8 points. After leaving points on the board in Miami before that ridiculous ending, I wouldn't want to be the team facing the Pats the following week.

Saints -6.5 at Panthers

Keeping up the theme of Hribar stats: New Orleans' +11.4 point differential in road games is the best in the league, an encouraging change for them. With Cam Newton not looking healthy for weeks, I'm finally going against Carolina, so hopefully it doesn't come back to cost me.

Saturday, December 8, 2018

2018 NFL Week 14 Picks

It wasn't a banner week for me, but I'll take a positive result overall every time. This will be another interesting one with so many road favorites, so I'll try not to overthink things.

This week: 1-0
Last week: 9-7
Season total: 99-94

Road Favorites

Panthers -1.5 at Browns

Cleveland has played well at home but proved last week that they're still a young team that can implode. Now with some changes on the defensive coaching staff, Carolina will end their losing streak at some point, right? Right!?

Lions -2.5 at Cardinals

This is going to be such an ugly game with undermanned offenses. Detroit has at least had games where they look mediocre compared to Arizona being mostly terrible, so I'll take the more experienced quarterback despite being on the road.

Steelers -11.5 at Raiders

Although this is a lot of points on a road between historic rivals, it's a great bounce back spot for Pittsburgh to let out their frustrations after a couple close losses. With James Conner out, they'll likely air it out even more than usual, increasing the blowout potential.

Sunday, December 2, 2018

2018 NFL Week 13 Picks

It was a rough end to last week for me, and if I hadn't ended up with the Ravens -10.5 after writing last week's post, it would've been even worse. This week is off to a better start after the first of many home 'dogs won outright, though, and it'll be interesting to see how all of these road favorites fare.

This week: 1-0
Last week: 7-8
Season total: 89-87

Road Favorites

Colts -3.5 at Jaguars

Hey maybe Cody Kessler taking over at quarterback will spark this underachieving Jacksonville squad! Or maybe it's just a last ditch desperation move after already firing their offensive coordinator. Either way, Andrew Luck and Indy should continue to roll after a slight hiccup resulted in last week's win being closer than expected.

Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers

One of these weeks Carolina will end their skid, and Jameis Winston might be due for a turnover or two after such a clean game last week. Tampa's defense plays much better at home than on the road (hard to do worse after all), but it's still not an intimidating obstacle in the way of Christian McCaffrey's hot streak.

Ravens -1.5 at Falcons

For what it's worth, this isn't a favorite anymore in Vegas as the line has swung towards the home team, and I actually thought Atlanta should've been favored at home from the start. Then I saw Rich Hribar's note about Baltimore averaging a league-low 4.7 yards per play compared to Atlanta's 6.3, which ranks 30th. Maybe Lamar Jackson won't have to match as many points as initially thought in his first road start.

Broncos -3.5 at Bengals

Another Hribar note is that Cincinnati has allowed opponents to score on 50.9% of their possessions, the worst in the league. Jeff Driskel had some exciting moments in relief of Andy Dalton, but now that Denver's resurgent defense has had a week to prepare for the fact that it'll be him at quarterback, I'm not too worried here.

Chiefs -15.5 at Raiders

Everyone knows how good Andy Reid is coming out of a bye by now, right?

Road Underdogs

Bills +5.5 at Dolphins

Let's hope that my first time picking Buffalo all season doesn't come back to haunt me, but this is too large of a spread between two mediocre division rivals. I'm expecting some ugly football, so give me the points.

Jets +9.5 at Titans

I really don't like with any AFC East team not named the Patriots, but again, this is too many points to lay with an inconsistent team. I have little doubt that Tennessee is the superior team, but their defense was shockingly disappointing last week after they had an early 10-0 lead.

Vikings +6.5 at Patriots

Per Hribar, Minnesota's opponents have scored a touchdown on just 16.1% of their drives, the lowest rate in the league, so I don't see New England them pulling away in this one. I hate picking against them at home, but the best game of the weekend should be a close contest.

Home Underdogs

Giants +4.5 versus Bears

I've gone back and forth on this one because it's another game that Chicago's defense could win by themselves like I said they would last week, but asking them to actually do that again is a tall order. Backup quarterbacks sometimes struggle in the following game after catching defenses by surprise in their first action, so I'll take the points against Chase Daniel this time.

Lions +9.5 versus Rams

LA keeps getting these large spreads on the road, and it's just too hard for me to trust their defense, even with Aqib Talib coming back from IR. I don't love this pick, but I'm basically counting on Snacks Harrison and this revamped run defense slowing down Todd Gurley enough to stay competitive.

Home Favorites

Texans -4.5 versus Browns

Since Week 4, only 16.7% of drives against Houston have resulted in touchdowns, the second best mark in the league, according to Hribar. Taking the points with this new Cleveland team was tempting, but facing this defense on the road is a tough task. It's hard to believe that Houston will win nine straight after that 0-3 start, yet here we are.

Packers -14.5 versus Cardinals

One more Hribar stat on defenses: Green Bay has allowed a touchdown on just 14% of opponents' drives at home this year, the best in the league. This line still seems inflated considering the state of things in what is likely Mike McCarthey's last year, but there's no way I'm taking Josh Rosen on the road against Aaron Rodgers.

Seahawks -10.5 versus 49ers

San Francisco played Seattle tough last year, but I don't see Nick Mullens being the quarterback to finally breakthrough against them in this difficult road environment. And given their lack of a consistent pass rush, we'll probably see Russell Wilson doing Russell Wilson things a lot.

Steelers -3.5 versus Chargers

Last week was the typical Pittsburgh letdown out of nowhere that seems to happen once a year on the road, so we'll see if they have their usual bounce back in a home prime time game. Melvin Gordon being out for a couple weeks certainly doesn't help LA either, and the Steelers defense should provide just a bit more resistance than the Cardinals did last week.

Eagles -6.5 versus Redskins

I was tempted to take the points against Philly's banged up secondary again, but I'm not sure Colt McCoy will really make them pay on the road. Add in the distraction of Washington claiming Reuben Foster on waivers, and I can't take the inferior team here.

Saturday, November 24, 2018

2018 NFL Week 12 Picks Part 2

I'd complain about Atlanta shooting themselves in the foot with all the fumbles in the red zone to miss covering by half a point, but I also got the Dallas pick right with the help of a missed extra point (after a Chiefs missed PAT resulted in a blown cover on MNF). So overall a 2-1 Thanksgiving day wasn't too shabby.

This week: 2-1
Last week: 6-7
Season total: 84-80

Road Favorites

Patriots -9.5 at Jets

Although New England has struggled on the road, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel should be healthier after their bye to provide a boost. And when we last saw New York, both their defense and Josh McCown were complete letdowns, so it's hard to see them staying competitive despite facing another division rival.

Jaguars -3.5 at Bills

Speaking of that New York-Buffalo game, it's still shocking that the Bills put up 41 points after combining for just 33 points in their previous four games combined, especially with Matt Barkley starting after just signing a couple weeks prior. That's not going to happen again with raw rookie Josh Allen returning this week against the tough Jacksonville defense.

Steelers -3.5 at Broncos

I'm almost wary of this line being surprisingly low, but Pittsburgh showed last week how hard it is to keep their offense down for a whole game. You need to be able to create explosive plays yourself, and I still don't think Denver can do that.
T.J. Watt and this pass rush has helped shut down big plays of late.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

2018 NFL Week 12 Picks Part 1

Happy Thanksgiving! With the short week before a fun day of football, here's a short post with my picks for the three turkey day games.

Bears -4.5 at Lions

Having to rely on career backup Chase Daniel gives me some pause, but I just have a hard time seeing Detroit scoring much on the league's best defense, especially with Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones injured. Kenny Golladay can do a lot of amazing things on the field, but stopping Chicago's defense from winning this by themselves may not be one of them.

I'm guessing we'll see a lot of Elliott's "eating" celebration before Thanksgiving dinner.
Cowboys -7.5 versus Redskins

Dallas has been remained stronger than expected on defense, especially at home, and Washington was already averaging the fewest points per game on the road even before that terrible Alex Smith injury. Rich Hribar also points out that the Redskins' run defense that had improved to start the year is now resorting back to their old ways from recent years, which obviously spells good news for Zeke Elliott. Colt McCoy may surprise them a bit at first, but in the end this shouldn't be a close one.

Falcons +13.5 at Saints

This might not be all that close either with the way New Orleans has been shredding teams, but two touchdowns in a divisional rematch of a game that went to overtime earlier this year is too much. Drew Brees will be without Terron Armstead, who has been the best tackle in the league according to Pro Football Focus, so maybe Atlanta's disappointing pass rush can get him out of rhythm a bit. Or at least, enough for their own, normally explosive offense, to keep things interesting.

Last week: 6-7
Season total: 82-79 

Saturday, November 17, 2018

2018 NFL Week 11 Picks

Things swung back in a big way last week with favorites only covering in 5 of 14 games in Week 10, but fortunately, I was on the right side of most of those. Since starting to be more deliberate with how many home and road favorites I was taking, I've gone 38-17 the last four weeks to put me in position to at least have a chance in my picks pool, so let's hope I don't screw things up now.

Last week: 10-4
Season total: 76-72

Road Favorites:

Texans -2.5 at Redskins

Right off the bat, it's a pick I'm not exactly confident in since Houston doesn't feel like a team that would win seven straight after starting 0-3. Washington's 6-3 feels like smoke and mirrors, though, and the incredible fact that there hasn't been a single lead change in any of their games feels like summary of Alex Smith as a quarterback. He won't lose the game for you, but he probably isn't going to lead comeback, either. Considering the state of his offensive line against this defensive front, that may be a problem.

Panthers -3.5 at Lions

Carolina ran into a buzzsaw in Pittsburgh on a short week, but they should bounce back on the road against a struggling Detroit side. With Golden Tate already traded and Marvin Jones now out this week, it'll be tough for the Lions to match the points that their struggling defense will surely give up to Cam Newtown and Christian McCaffrey, who suddenly has seven touchdowns in his last three games after only one in his first six.

Saturday, November 10, 2018

2018 NFL Week 10 Picks

Due to some personal matters and the Santa Cruz Warriors season starting, this will be an abridged version of my picks. Last week was another successful week at 9-4, and I would have actually gotten to .500 on the season had I not chickened out with my Patriots pick.

Road Favorites

Saints -4.5 at Bengals

New Orleans made their case that they're the best team in the league last week, and while I'm not ready to declare that just yet, getting this nice road win would go a long way. I don't fully trust them away from the Superdome, but I can't take Cincinnati without their best player, A.J. Green.

Falcons -4.5 at Browns

It's another dome team on the road, and I'm much more comfortable with this one considering the opponent. Gregg Williams' beaten down defense will have a tough time slowing down this surging Atlanta attack.

Chargers -9.5 at Raiders

This is a lot of points in a divisional road game, but Oakland has seemingly packed it in for this first year of the second Jon Gruden regime. Hopefully LA replacing Caleb Sturgis at kicker will make their games less stressful since they're looking like one of the best teams in the league.

Road Underdogs

Cardinals +16.5 at Chiefs

I already hate this pick, but it's just so many points against an Arizona team that might have signs of life with new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. I like Kansas City to have a big lead early (the -10 in the first half makes sense) but can already picture the garbage time touchdown.

Jaguars +3.5 at Colts

Both teams are coming off of a bye, and an interesting nugget from Fabian Sommer is that home teams after the off week are 67-82-2 against the spread since 2010. In what should be a tough divsional game, I'm taking the points with Jacksonville in what's seemingly a make or break game for their season.

Seahawks +10.5 at Rams

While I think LA will bounce back and win at home, I learned my lesson about laying too many points in this matchup when these teams first met.

Giants +3.5 at 49ers

I'm trying to stay levelheaded with the Mullens Mania since his impressive debut was against the Raiders, so while I'd lean towards San Francisco winning at home, I don't feel comfortable laying more than a field goal with them yet. After all, Odell Beckham Jr. could take over this game by himself against their inconsistent pass defense.

Home Underdogs

Titans +7.5 versus Patriots

Tennessee is too good of a team to be getting this many points at home, even if it is against New England, who haven't been as surgical on the road. With former Patriot Dion Lewis taking control of the backfield, this offense should be able to keep pace to at least cover.

Home Favorites

Steelers -3.5 versus Panthers

Turns out I didn't need to be as worried as I was.

Jets -7.5 versus Bills

Josh McCown filling in for an injured Sam Darnold might actually help New York given the rookie's recent struggles. In any case, you know I'm basically picking against Buffalo every week, especially on the road.

Bears -6.5 versus Lions

This almost feels too easy with how these teams are playing because Chicago's defense at home should give Detroit the same kind of trouble as Minnesota last week. Hopefully Allen Robinson can get back involved in the offense now that he seems to be back healthy.

Buccaneers -2.5 versus Redskins

I've made a season of picking against Tampa's defense, but this might be an unstoppable force versus an immovable object with Washington missing four offensive lineman. With the Washington corners getting burned most weeks, this should be a bounce back spot for Mike Evans.

Packers -9.5 versus Dolphins

Green Bay collapsed in the fourth quarter in Foxborough but are now back at home against a much less threatening AFC East team. I'll lay however many points it takes to have Aaron Rodgers against Brock Osweiler.

Eagles -6.5 versus Cowboys

I know I quoted that stat about home teams coming off a bye, but it doesn't mean that all three of Cincy, Indy, and Philly will fall short. In fact, with the Eagles getting healthier, I think this is when they start to pull away from the rest of the NFC (L)East.

Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia Instant Reaction


76ers get:
Jimmy Butler$20,445,779$19,841,627
Justin Patton$2,667,600

Timberwolves get:
Robert Covington$10,464,092$11,301,219$12,138,345$12,975,471
Jerryd Bayless$8,575,916
Dario Saric$2,526,840$3,481,986
2022 2nd round pick


This is fascinating stunner that seemingly came from out of nowhere. I will get into more detail once all of the final details come out, but here are my first thoughts:
  • It's a solid haul for Minnesota considering their circumstances since Butler's way of handling this didn't give them much leverage. Saric hasn't played as well as last year but is still a great young talent with two years left on his rookie deal while Covington is in the first year of his extension at a fair price.
  • Hopefully this roster reconfiguration gets Andrew Wiggins more time at shooting guard and brings out his potential on a more consistent basis.
  • Bringing in another ball dominant star will probably be tougher for Markelle Fultz's development, but Philadelphia has to do this trade for an established All-Star, especially if they're confident they can re-sign him this summer.
  • Fultz-Redick-Butler-Simmons-Embiid is a tantalizing potential starting five, and if a forward like Wilson Chandler can give them good minutes off the bench come playoff time, they'll be in good shape. A sleeper to keep an eye out for is Jonah Bolden as a versatile big.

Saturday, November 3, 2018

2018 NFL Week 9 Picks

A 9-5 showing was a slight step back from the previous week's 10-4, but it's still a heck of a lot better than some of my previous weeks. And if leads could've been held onto by Cincinnati, Kansas City, or San Francisco (even just on the 2 point conversion!) to cover the spreads, this would be a different conversation. The process feels like it's been pretty good, though, so hopefully it continues during this weekend with six teams on bye as we're somehow already in Week 9.

Road Favorites

Chiefs -8.5 at Browns

It finally happened: Hue Jackson was relieved of his duties after a 3-36-1 stint. And he still had the gall to try and pass off the blame this already about not getting the players he wanted "the first two years" as if he knew exactly which quarterbacks would work out. This, from the man who tried to trade 2nd AND 3rd round picks for A.J. freaking McCarron, who was in the last year of his rookie deal anyway. I'd say this team has nowhere to go but up now, but it's not exactly like they're in much better hands with Gregg Williams. Sorry if we don't take your word on this one, Gregg.

Bears -5.5 at Bills

The CBS Sports line being released before it was on the board in Vegas due to Derek Anderson's injury is fortuitous here, but let's be honest: there's zero percent chance I'd be taking Buffalo in this spot. No matter who is under center, they have no functional passing game, which is just a bit of a problem in the modern NFL. That's especially true against a Chicago defense that still haven't allowed a rushing touchdown.

Road Underdogs

Raiders +3.5 at 49ers

I continued my streak of having the wrong pick in San Francisco games as I underestimated just how little fight Oakland has left in it after losing so many of their best players. This game needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but there's no denying that Nick Mullens was impressive in his NFL debut with his confidence in distributing the ball to the receivers Kyle Shanahan schemes open. Given C.J. Beathard's lack of pocket presence and unwillingness to let it rip at times, things could get interesting as far as who Jimmy Garoppolo's backup will be in the future.

Falcons +1.5 at Redskins

Washington has quietly been on a roll and is at home against a team that doesn't tend to fare too well outdoors, so why am I picking against them? Atlanta's offense is just so much more explosive on offense, and hopefully their beleaguered defense can get just enough stops to pull out a win. It may also be telling that the home team isn't getting the typical field goal advantage, indicating that the Falcons are the better team in a vacuum.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

2018 NFL Week 8 Picks

Alright, last week's 10-4 is more like it, even with the close losses from Baltimore and especially Atlanta. Categorizing the picks to give me an idea of how many favorites and underdogs of each type I'm taking was helpful, and it's worth noting that favorites were 8-6 against the spread last week, fueled by all five road favorites covering to bring them to 16-17 on the season.

Road Favorites

Redskins -1.5 at Giants

Another week, another divisional game with Washington a slight favorite that I don't have much confidence in either way. While it may be too simple to just look at New York trading away two defensive starters this week as a reason to pick against them, they were already an unimposing unit before becoming shorthanded. Odell Beckham Jr. can always change a game, of course, but it's not like you can trust Eli Manning to consistently get him the ball.

Colts -3.5 at Raiders

On the one hand, Indy's dominant performance last week should be taken with a grain of salt since it was against Buffalo, but on the other, they get to face another one of the worst teams in the league this week. Now without both Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper, the Oakland offense that was already sputtering isn't likely to match points with a Colts team that is hitting its stride with a young offensive line coming together in front of Andrew Luck.
Marlon Mack suddenly has some running room for his big play ability.
Patriots -13.5 at Bills

Everyone knows that Rob Gronkowski dominates in his hometown, but if you want the full numbers, Rich Hribar has him with averages are 6.3 catches for 104.3 yards and a touchdown per game. The only real worry is that New England takes their foot off the gas with a big lead, especially since promising rookie Sony Michel likely won't be available to help bleed the clock. There's just no way I can take Derek Anderson against the Patriots, though.

Saturday, October 20, 2018

2018 NFL Week 7 Picks

Another week, another bad record for me. It's funny because when I guess what the spreads are going to be before they come out, I'm pretty accurate, so I fall into a false sense of security picking favorites to win by those amounts. The thing is, though, that so far this season the favorites (at least according to the lines in my CBS Sports pool) are only 44-49 against the spread, and I've especially been suffering from teams winning without covering recently. Thus, I'm changing things up this week by categorizing each of my picks so that I'll realize when I'm leaning a bit too far towards just the favorites. So without further ado, here are this week's picks to turn things around, with the usual assist from Rich Hribar's Worksheet on Rotoworld for some statistical nuggets.

Road Favorites

Broncos -2.5 at Cardinals

On the one hand, I'm stoked that I got this pick right and got 37 fantasy points from Denver's defense, but on the other, I'm kicking myself for switching to a different streamer in my main league...https://twitter.com/SF_DavidGio/status/1053084964055437312
Vikings -3.5 at Jets

These aren't directly related, but per Hribar, Vikings have the best third down defense in the league, and the Jets are the worst at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Those are signs of an elite defense and a not so great offense, and conversely, New York struggles covering the slot. I'm willing to bet that will continue given just how hot Adam Thielen has been to start the season.

Patriots -3.5 at Bears

I don't want to overreact to Chicago blowing last week's game with two long run after catch touchdowns for Albert Wilson before stupidly playing for a field goal that would be over 50 yards in OT, but it didn't inspire enough confidence to take the points here. New England's offense is finding its stride with Julian Edelman back and Josh Gordon more involved, so they should be able to cover more than a field goal, even on the road.

Lions -1.5 at Dolphins

Speaking of Wilson's long scores, these big play touchdowns can't be counted on each week, especially with Brock Osweiler at quarterback. And if Miami's defense cracks like it did against Trubisky, than Matthew Stafford and this receiving core should expose it.

Saturday, October 13, 2018

2018 NFL Week 6 Picks

The Sunday slate was back to being unkind to me with an overtime loss (thanks Michael Crabtree) and three teams that won their game without covering. If a couple of those close calls go the other way, then my 6-9 week would look a bit nicer, though. I feel pretty good about this week now that we've got something of a sample size with each team, so maybe this will finally be the start of a run.

Eagles -3.5 at Giants

I forgot to tweet out my pick this time because I was too busy tilting as a Odell Beckham fantasy owner facing what felt like the entire Philly team across a couple of leagues. Rooting for a team to win but its players to do poorly is not great, Bob.

Chargers -1.5 at Browns

I know this exact matchup was what gave Hue Jackson his only win in the two seasons before this one, but I also know that Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and other Chargers veterans remember that, as well. Cleveland is a better team now, but I don't think LA will let that slip up happen again, even with the early East Coast start.

Texans -7.5 versus Bills

Buffalo has been hanging in games thanks to turnovers, but that isn't sustainable, especially on the road against an explosive offense. And although Houston's backfield is a a little banged up, their defensive front can win this game on its own since the Bills best offense seems to just be Josh Allen runs.

Saturday, October 6, 2018

2018 NFL Week 5 Picks

Now that was more like it. As I somewhat joked would happen, my picks were 10-2 during the main Sunday slate after the Thursday night loss. Some of this week's spreads were a bit off from what I expected, but here's hoping for another big week to get me back over .500.

Patriots -10.5 versus Colts

I got off to a good start again despite a bit of a scare in the second with those "interceptions" that counted against Tom Brady after the ball popped out of his receivers' hands. Now comes the hard part with the rest of the games...

Titans -3.5 at Bills

Although Tennessee is on the road here, I thought that this line would be higher, and sure enough, it's move up to -5.5 in most places. The CBS Sports pick 'em doesn't change, though, so this is an easy choice for a Titans team that's on a roll. Their pass rush, reinvigorated by 2nd round steal Harold Landry, should feast on Josh Allen.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

2018 NFL Week 4 Picks

Well, that wasn't exactly the bounce back week I was hoping for, but it was double the amount of wins from my dreadful Week 2. That's what we can call progress. Who knows, maybe I'll double last week's total again and begin a hot streak like my midseason run last year.

Vikings +6.5 at Rams

This pick isn't the start I was looking for, but then again, I won the last two Thursday games before terrible Sundays. The optimistic view would suggest that Minnesota's stunning collapse means I'm due for a big weekend. Law of averages, or something like that.

Bengals +5.5 at Falcons

Atlanta's offense is rolling now after that disappointing opener, but their defense keeps taking hits with free safety Ricardo Allen now out for the year, as well. Cincy moved the ball well even without Joe Mixon last week and is sure to put up points, and I think their defense is strong enough to win this game on the road.

Jaguars -7.5 versus Jets

Both teams lost tough games last week, but Jacksonville seems to actually be getting Leonard Fournette back now to stabilize the offense. And this elite defense getting a turnover-prone rookie QB at home could cover this spread by themselves.

Lions +3.5 at Cowboys

I'm guilty of overrating the impact of injuries to individual players sometimes, but there's no denying that the Dallas defense is vastly different unit when Sean Lee misses time. With Detroit's offense clicking on all cylinders the last game and a half, I think they should've been favored even on the road in this spot.
Detroit needs to keep calm and use Kerryon. He's clearly their best 'back.

Friday, September 21, 2018

2018 NFL Week 3 Picks

Week 2 might be my least favorite week in the NFL season. There's only a one game sample size leading up to it, and you have to try not to overreact to the opening weekend. My guesses at what the lines would be were unusually off as a result, and I ended up with my worst week of picks...ever? But that's in the past, and things are back on track with the spreads aligning more closely with my views of teams now, meaning this should be a better week. It can't get much worse, anyway.

Browns -3.5 versus Jets

Well that was quite the roller coaster, but I'll take another 1-0 start to the week.

49ers +6.5 at Chiefs

I know San Francisco didn't cover again and that I'm probably being a homer, but they were in control of that game before things went off the rails late. Now they get difference-making linebacker Reuben Foster back from suspension while Kansas City's shoddy secondary is still without Eric Berry. I'd feel more comfortable if this was over a touchdown, but I'll take the points in what will be a shootout.

Broncos +5.5 at Ravens

Baltimore is exactly the kind of team that is hard to judge since they beat up on the hapless Bills before a really uneven loss to the Bengals, so I can't feel comfortable laying this many points with them. I do think they'll probably win, but Denver will by no means be a pushover after their 2-0 start. I can almost see Von Miller's pressure forcing a Joe Flacco interception now.

Friday, September 14, 2018

2018 NFL Week 2 Picks

Due to some traveling, I didn't get this post up yesterday as I had hoped, but rest assured that I wrote the TNF section on the plane and had Cincinnati. That already has me off to a better start than Week 1, so here's to that continuing!

Last week: 9-7

Bengals +0.5 versus Ravens

It’s hard to get a proper read on just how good Baltimore really is after beating up on the worst team in the league at home while Cincy had fits and starts before taking care of business on the road. Joe Mixon looked more like the dynamic 2nd round prospect that was expected last year, and if he produces like that consistently, the Bengals could be an underrated good team. I’m buying in this week at least since they’re at home and the Ravens are still difficult to trust.

Titans +4.5 versus Texans

This is of course contingent on the news that Marcus Mariota will play because it’s a tough call as it is. Give me the home ‘dogs, though, because Houston’s offensive line lost starting right tackle Seantrel Henderson for the season and looked as shaky as expected. Deshaun Watson dominated this game last year, but he started experiencing some of that regression to be mean that was bound to come in Week 1.

Steelers -5.5 versus Chiefs

I was shocked when I saw this line after how these teams performed in their season openers, and yet here I am, still laying the points. Pittsburgh has owned this matchup the last few years and are back at Heinz Field, where they are seemingly a completely different team. Kansas City is likely to be without Eric Berry again, so despite how impressive Pat Mahomes and the offense looked, I have a hard time seeing them get enough stops.

Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers

The fact that Tampa Bay's defense is in shambles was somewhat overlooked in their wild upset in New Orleans last week, and I don't believe in them as a sleeper team as a result. Philadelphia's defense will be a much more difficult challenge for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and I expect him to turn back into a pumpkin soon enough.
Fletcher Cox and the defense showed that they can win even without Nick Foles going crazy.


Thursday, September 6, 2018

NFL 2018 Week 1 Picks

If you're here, you know it's just about that time: NFL football is back! After coming in 2nd by a single game in my picks pool on CBS Sports last season, I'm coming back for the title. Their lines will be the basis for my picks here, so without further ado, let the winning begin.

Falcons +3.5 at Eagles

The defending Super Bowl champs may end up being the favorites to repeat as NFC champions in the long run, but Carson Wentz isn't back from his torn ACL yet and top receiver Alshon Jeffery will miss the beginning of the season due to shoulder surgery. Nick Foles' magical hot streak from the playoffs won't continue, so I like Atlanta to avenge their playoff loss to kick off the season.

Steelers -5.5 at Browns

I know, I know: Le'Veon Bell still hasn't reported to the team, and the upstart Browns looked like a new team with all of their changes on display on Hard Knocks. -5.5 seems like a lot of points to lay on the road, especially with with a rookie offensive coordinator to boot, but guess what? Hue Jackson is still the Cleveland head coach with Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Ben Roethlisberger shouldn't have an issue shredding the Browns, whom he is 22-2 against in his career.
Expect Big Ben to receive another congratulatory handshake.
Titans -1.5 at Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill will be making his first start since December 11, 2016 against a team that made it to the Divisional Round last season and added new pieces on defense like Malcolm Butler, Rashaan Evans, and Kenny Vaccaro. Tennessee's offense also stands to improve with coach Mike Mularkey gone and intriguing new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur calling the shots now. After a bit of disappointing year, I say that Marcus Mariota takes the next step this season, and it starts against Miami's unimposing defense.

Ravens -6.5 vs Bills

I would probably take Baltimore no matter how high this line was. Their veteran defense is at home against the guy who threw 5 interceptions on just 14 attempts in the first half of this first start last year. And Nathan Peterman now has less talent around him on what I think will be the worst team in the league. Their secondary is strong, but that's about it, which leaves me confident in this spot.

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

2018 NBA Offseason Round Up, Part 2

We're just 10 days into July yet there's already been a ton of movement. Since Part 1 of this round up has already gotten too large, the rest of this summer's moves will be recapped here. There isn't a ton of cap space left out there, but as of this writing, I have the Hawks as the leaders with up to $24.2 million, the Bulls with up to $20.6, the Kings with $19.5, and the Nets with up to $12.1. And that's pretty much it, with those teams more likely to keep some of their non-guaranteed guys and/or hoard their room for trades. Other franchises just have some of their exceptions to use, so it's definitely a tough market out there.

Luc Mbah a Moute signs with the Clippers: 1 year, $4.3 million (Woj)
Luc Mbah a Moute
$4,320,500

The rest of the MLE that's being split with Mike Scott.


Bryn Forbes re-signs with the Spurs: 2 years (Shams)
Bryn Forbes
$1,512,601
$1,645,357

I'm assuming the minimum for now.

Davis Bertans re-signs with the Spurs: 2 years, $14.5 million (Shams)
Davis Bertans
$7,073,171
$7,426,829


James Ennis signs with the Rockets: 2 years, minimum contract (Feigen)
James Ennis
$1,621,415
$1,845,300


Wayne Ellington re-signs with the Heat: 1 year, $6.27 million (Haynes)
Wayne Ellington
$6,270,000


Isaiah Thomas signs with the Nuggets: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj)
Isaiah Thomas
$1,512,601


Man, it’s pretty sad to see how far Isaiah has fallen after everything over this past year. His minimum as a 7 year vet is $2,029,463. Not quite the brinks truck he was hoping for.

Jeremy Lin salary dumped on the Hawks (Woj)
Hawks receive:
Jeremy Lin
$12,516,746
Right to swap 2023 2nd round picks
2025 2nd round pick

Nets receive:
Rights to Isaia Cordinier (44th pick in 2016)
Portland’s 2020 2nd round pick, protected 31-55

Nuggets avoid the luxury tax thanks to the Nets (Woj)
Nets receive:
Kenneth Faried
$13,764,045
Darrell Arthur
$7,464,912
2019 1st round pick, protected 1-12
2020 2nd

Nuggets receive:
Isaiah Whitehead
$1,544,951
$1,676,735


Georges Niang re-signs with the Jazz: “multiyear deal” (Shams)
Georges Niang
$1,512,601
$1,645,357

Jabari Parker signs with the Bulls: 2 years, $40 million (Woelfel)
Jabari Parker
$19,512,195
$20,487,805

Entirety of the 2nd year being a team option, per Woj, is huge.

Channing Frye signs with the Cavs: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams)
Channing Frye
$1,512,601

Frye will get $2,393,887 thanks to his experience.

Shabazzi Napier signs with the Nets: 2 year deal (Woj)
Shabazz Napier
$1,621,415
$1,845,300

No financial details yet, but if it’s for the minimum like I’m assuming, Brooklyn can wait until they use the last ~$2 million or so they have left in cap room.

Dante Cunningham signs with the Spurs: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj)
Dante Cunningham
$1,512,601

$2,176,260 will be Cunningham’s reward for having 9 years of experience.


Garrett Temple traded to Memphis (Woj)
Grizzlies receive:
Garrett Temple
$8,000,000


Kings receive:
Ben McLemore
$5,460,000
Deyonta Davis
$1,544,951
2021 2nd round pick
$1.5 million cash

Lorenzo Brown re-signs with the Raptors: 1 year deal (Shams)
Lorenzo Brown
$1,512,601

Brown will earn slight more ($1,621,415) as a 4 year vet.

Treveon Graham signs with the Nets: 2 year deal (Shams)
Treveon Graham
$1,512,601
$1,645,357
Kawhi Leonard traded to the Raptors (Woj)
Raptors receive:
Kawhi Leonard
$20,099,189
$21,329,752
Danny Green
$10,000,000

Spurs receive:
DeMar DeRozan
$27,739,975
$27,739,975
$27,739,975
Jakob Poeltl
$2,947,320
$3,754,886
2019 1st round pick (protected 1-20, then becomes two 2nd round picks)

Credit to Shams for first reporting that this deal was close before Woj had the confirmation with details of the whole package.