Sunday, December 30, 2018

2018 NFL Week 17 Picks

Well, that's not how I wanted to finish the season. My last minute flip flopping of a pick failed me as usual with the Raiders continuing this late season resurgence, so now I'm basically done in my picks pool. I also have a love/hate relationship with Week 17 since it's obviously exciting with playoff races and draft pick implications, but it's also difficult to make decisions not knowing exactly what players are going to be on the field. Thus, I'll keep this short since I hate taking this many favorites again when underdogs have covered 127 times to 112 based on the CBS Sports lines. Week 17 is wacky.

Last week: 5-11
Season total: 120-120

Road Favorites

Eagles -6.5 at Redskins

 Apparently Nick Foles really does turn into Peyton Manning in the Winter, and with a chance at the playoffs still in play, he's facing the skeleton crew that remains in Washington.

 Chargers -2.5 at Broncos

 A lot of the lines are strange this week, and this is one that should be easy with Denver's implosion and Vance Joseph on the hot seat. LA can get the #1 seed if they win and KC loses, so there won't be any starters resting here.
An undermanned Denver offense is a prime opportunity for Derwin James to wrap up DROY.

 Road Underdogs

Falcons +1.5 at Buccaneers

 This is another one where the Vegas line has swung, so Atlanta actually getting a point and a half instead of being slightly favored is to my benefit. And they are the less bad team in this if that makes sense.

 Panthers +7.5 at Saints

 Neither team's starting quarterback will be playing in this one, so give me the points in this toss up.

Cowboys +7.5 at Giants

 Dallas is locked into the #4 seed and likely to rest its starters despite Jerry Jones' comments like in 2016, but I still can't lay more than a touchdown with New York. And as an aside, as a 49ers fan I am hoping that both the Bucs and Giants lose as the key games in the strength of schedule tiebreaker with the Jets (who's key games rely on the Broncos and Browns).

 Bengals +14.5 at Steelers

 Cincinnati has actually shown some fight the last couple of weeks, so while Pittsburgh should win in all likelihood to give themselves a chance at the playoffs if Baltimore loses, I'll take the points in a divisional game.

Colts +1.5 at Titans

 Of all the unbalanced lines on CBS, this is the easiest given the uncertainty under center for Tennessee and Andrew Luck's undefeated record against them.

 Home Favorites

Patriots -13.5 versus Jets

 A garbage time touchdown with two defenders running into each other resulted in a bad beat last week, but it's another rookie quarterback coming into New England this week to provide another double digit win.

 Texans -7.5 versus Jaguars

 I was really hoping this would be under a touchdown, but with Houston having the widest range of possible playoff seeds, they'll be pulling out all the stops for a W at home.

 Bills -3.5 versus Dolphins

 This matchup burned me a couple of weeks ago, but now that Buffalo is at home, their defense should take care of business against Ryan Tannehill in possibly his last Miami start as the team is facing sweeping changes.

 Packers -7.5 versus Lions

It's kind of shocking that Green Bay is favored by this much, but they are at home against a hapless Detroit team. Last week's overtime win showed that they're not just playing out the string, after all.

Ravens -5.5 versus Browns

 I was really tempted to go with the streaking Browns, but Baltimore's defense is just too good to pick against at home with a non-playoff team coming to town.

 Seahawks -8.5 versus Cardinals

 I'm not making the mistake of taking Arizona for the points again.

 Vikings -5.5 versus Bears

 Even with the chance at a first round bye on the line, Vegas is anticipating that Chicago will take it easy with their starters since the Rams are likely to take that #2 seed. Conversely, Minnesota can secure their own playoff berth with a win at home.

 Chiefs -14.5 versus Raiders

 Oakland played this game tough a few weeks ago, but this is in Kansas City this time. Besides the opportunity to take the #1 seed with a win, the Chiefs need to finish the regular season on a good note after back to back losses. And it doesn't hurt that Pat Mahomes can add onto his MVP resume as he already has 48 touchdown (T-4th all time) passes and needs just 184 yards to become just the 6th passer to reach the 5,000 mark. As a reminder of how annoying Week 17's are, I'll never forget him leading the backups to a win in Denver to cost me 1st place in my picks pool last year in his first start, and with that game kicking things off, he's put together undoubtedly the best start to a career among quarterbacks.

Rams -9.5 versus 49ers

 As mentioned above, LA can secure a first round bye with a win, and San Francisco is in line for the #2 overall pick as things stand with the tiebreakers. Nick Mullens has put together quality starts (4th down decision aside last week), but Jared Goff awoke from hibernation against Arizona to set a high bar in this one. What will be fun to watch for is whether George Kittle can get his 100 yards to pass Rob Gronkowski's record for tight ends.

Posted by at
Labels: ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)