Happy Holidays! I probably shouldn't have laid so many points with Tennessee in what was sure to be a low scoring game, but the pick I'm really mad at myself for switching is not taking the points with Baltimore +4.5...I don't like how many favorites I'm taking today, but maybe all of the upsets recently means they're due to have a big week.
Last week: 8-8
This week: 0-2
Season total: 115-111
Road Favorites
Vikings -5.5 at Lions
Per Rich Hribar, Detroit has the second lowest scoring rate in the league over their last eight games, and Minnesota still has the lowest touchdown rate allowed on the season.
Bears -3.5 at 49ers
I switched this to San Francisco briefly before coming to my senses because although they've been hot at home the last couple of games, they haven't faced a defense nearly of this caliber.
Chiefs -2.5 at Seahawks
I know, I know, night games in Seattle are among the toughest in the league, and Kansas City's unreliable defense somehow blew a two touchdown lead late last week. This is almost like a mini bye week for Andy Reid, though, so I have a feeling that they'll come out on fire to make up for that loss to try and regain control of the #1 seed. Having Eric Berry increase his snap count after sitting out the second half of that collapse should help this defense's road struggles, as well.
Road Underdogs
Falcons +3.5 at Panthers
This isn't technically an underdog pick anymore since Cam Newton being ruled out after CBS Sports posted this line has shifted the line the other way in Vegas, but hey, I don't make the rules.
Texans +0.5 at Eagles
Another line that's shifted in Vegas, but I'm not getting the benefit of a couple of points for the underdog here. While it's still hard to believe that this flawed Houston team could get a first round bye, I'm even less of a believer in what Nick Foles and this Philly defense sustaining what they accomplished last week.
Packers +1.5 at Jets
I find it hard to believe that Aaron Rodgers will go winless on the road this year, and it's not exactly like New York is the most intimidating place to play.
Home Underogs
Cardinals +14.5 versus the Rams
I've gone back and forth on this one as I hate taking the points with Arizona again since they're probably the worst team in the league right now, but how can you trust LA to lay more than two touchdowns on the road given their recent struggles?
Raiders +2.5 versus the Broncos
Another late change for me that I'm not exactly confident in (and might still flip before Monday night), but hey, it's possibly the last Raiders game in Oakland. That's about as good of a reason as any considering Denver's limp to the finish line here.
Monday update: After getting my ass kicked yesterday, I am in fact swapping out my fun upset pick for the more likely winner with the spread only requiring a field goal to cover. Favorites aren't going to go 5-11 this week, are they?
Home Favorites
Dolphins -4.5 versus Jaguars
As Hribar notes, Jacksonville's 13.5% touchdown rate on offense is the worst in the league, and on the other side, they allow 155.9 rushing yards in road games compared to just 83.3 at home.
Colts -9.5 versus Giants
Like all good coaches should, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is playing to his players' strengths with their scheme, and without Odell Beckham Jr. again, I don't expect New York to beat it as Eli Manning is likely to live on Saquon Barkley checkdowns.
Patriots -12.5 versus Bills
This feels like too many points until you see a classic Hribar nugget that teams starting rookie quarterbacks in New England versus Bill Belichick are 0-12 with the average point differential standing at 16.6.
Browns -7.5 versus Bengals
In road games, Cincinnati allows scores on 55.7% of opponents' drives with 4.3 red zone trips per game, the worst marks in the league per Hribar.
Cowboys -7.5 versus Buccaneers
Tampa's red zone defense should be the cure for Dallas' woes in that area, and as Hribar points out, the last 11 road games that Jameis Winston has started have resulted in losses.
Saints -6.5 versus Steelers
New Orleans has been surprisingly carried by their defense of late, but now that they're back at home, I'm expecting the offense to bounce back against this up and down Pittsburgh team that's still missing James Conner.
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