These 9-7 weeks might not win me my pick 'em pool, but as my favorite fantasy football podcast Living the Stream would say, you could do worse. I didn't get off to my usual start as the fishy line didn't hold up despite a 14 point lead late in the fourth quarter, but I feel pretty good about this slate of games.
This week: 0-1
Last week: 9-7
Season total: 107-102
Road Favorites
Texans -6.5 at Jets
Per Rich Hribar, New York has allowed 183.3 rushing yards per game over their last four, the worst in the league. And guess what Houston likes to do? Run the ball.
Patriots -2.5 at Steelers
Another Hribar note is that New England has beaten Pittsburgh five straight times by an average of 12.8 points. After leaving points on the board in Miami before that ridiculous ending, I wouldn't want to be the team facing the Pats the following week.
Saints -6.5 at Panthers
Keeping up the theme of Hribar stats: New Orleans' +11.4 point differential in road games is the best in the league, an encouraging change for them. With Cam Newton not looking healthy for weeks, I'm finally going against Carolina, so hopefully it doesn't come back to cost me.
Road Underdogs
Redskins +7.5 at Jaguars
Two bad quarterbacks slugging it out with one of the lowest over/under totals you'll see? Give me the points.
Raiders +3.5 at Bengals
Oakland has actually been playing well of late, albeit at home, and while Cincy was more competitive than expected last week, I'm still planning on picking against them the rest of the way.
Cardinals +8.5 at Falcons
While I think that Atlanta should win this, they are not a good enough team to be laying more than a touchdown against just about anyone.
Titans +2.5 at Giants
I know that New York has been playing better and that Tennessee struggles on the road, but I'm still stunned that the Giants are favored in this matchup. The Titans are clearly the better team in my eyes.
Lions +2.5 at Bills
Nope, I can't go back to picking Buffalo and such an inaccurate quarterback. At some point teams will realize that Josh Allen's scrambling is seriously their only offense right?
Home Underdogs
49ers +5.5 versus Seahawks
I've gone back and forth on this, and I'm going back with San Francisco getting the same 5.5 at home like last week. They moved the ball pretty well in Seattle just two weeks ago, so if they can limit the turnovers and big plays that they gave up then, they should hang in this one.
Home Favorites
Broncos -3.5 versus Browns
Denver isn't the most inspiring pick, but they're at home against a young team that's struggled on the road.
Vikings -8.5 versus Dolphins
Miami scores on just 28.8% of their drives on the road, per Hribar, and eventually me yelling "unsustainable!" about their lucky big plays will come to fruition.
Bears -5.5 Packers
Green Bay has lost eight straight road games, and as Hribar points out, they allow 28.8 points in road games compared to 19.1 at home.
Colts -3.5 versus Cowboys
Last Hribar note: Dallas has only converted 46.3% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (30th) compared to Indy's 68% rate (7th). In a battle of pretty even teams, that could end up being the difference.
Ravens -8.5 Buccaneers
This line feels high, but the home/road splits with both of these teams is too much too ignore. Maybe this matchup will lead Lamar Jackson's breakout passing game.
Rams -9.5 versus Eagles
I would've taken this even before the Carson Wentz news because Philly's broken defense is just what the doctor ordered for LA's offense to bounce back.
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