Wednesday, June 29, 2022

2022 NBA Offseason Tracker

The 2022 NBA offseason is already off to a WILD start with deals already going back to before and during the draft, so I'm starting my tracker a touch earlier than usual. This is mostly to keep all of the news in one easy place to reference and put my contract estimates in bold, italicized numbers based on reported figures. I'm trying something new this year with the newest deals up top so that you don't have to scroll all the way to the bottom for the latest news. Command/Control F is still your friend for a specific player or team, of course.
Estimates/Player Options/Team Options/Not Fully Guaranteed

Mitchell heads to Cleveland in a blockbuster (Woj 9/1)

Cavaliers receive:
Donovan Mitchell$30,913,750$33,162,030$35,410,310$37,096,620

Jazz receive:
Lauri Markkanen$16,475,454$17,259,999$18,044,544
Collin Sexton$16,744,186$17,581,395$18,418,605$19,255,814
Ochai Agbaji$3,918,360$4,114,200$4,310,280$6,383,525
2025 1st round pick
Right to swap 2026 1st round picks
2027 1st round pick
Right to swap 2028 1st round picks
2029 1st round pick

Here I thought I was done updating this with the end of July and then boom, the long-awaited Donovan Mitchell trade finally happened. Danny Ainge's patience paid off with three unprotected picks coming back along with two potential pick swaps and Agbaji, who was just picked 14th in this year's draft like Kessler in the Gobert trade to make this essentially four 1st rounders and two young, useful players.

For one of them, Sexton, this was one of the best-case scenarios as a restricted free agent this late into the summer. A late sign-and-trade in RFA was how Markkanen first got to Cleveland last year, as well, and now the 23 and 25 year olds are a part of a new core in Utah to usher in the way for the absolute bounty of upcoming picks that they now have. With these two major trades, Ainge showed once again how masterful he is at rebuilding like in his time with Boston.

That's not to say this is a bad deal for Cleveland. I think it's a fair trade with both sides getting what they want. It may be a surprise that a young team is going all-in after just a 44-38 season with a Play-In exit, but Mitchell fits into their timeline as he turns 26 next week. Like with Sexton, I have concerns about his defensive fit next to another small guard in Darius Garland, but he is clearly an upgrade at the position. This should at least raise their floor moving forward, with their future trajectory going as far as Rookie of the Year runner-up Evan Mobley eventually takes them.

Dellavedova signs with Kings: 1 year, partially guaranteed (Kings/Scotto 7/29)
Matthew Dellavedova$1,836,090

Paschall agrees to sign with Minnesota: 1 year deal (Woj 7/29)
Eric Paschall$1,836,090

Update: Darren Wolfson reports that will be just a two-way contract.

Fernandon re-signs with Houston (Rockets 7/26)
Bruno Fernando$1,836,090

8/1 update: Keith Smith reports that it's a non-guaranteed, Exhibit-10 deal.

Hernangomez agrees to sign with Toronto: 1 year deal (Woj 7/26)
Juancho Hernangomez$1,836,090

Projecting the minimum, and I wouldn't be surprised if Bo Cruz's deal wasn't fully guaranteed at this point of the offseason, either.

Harden officially agrees to return to Philadelphia: 2 years, $68.6 million (Woj 7/20)
James Harden$32,980,769$35,619,231

In the end Harden sacrifices about $14.4 million this season in order for the 76ers to use the full MLE and BAE on Tucker and House while remaining under the hard cap that those exceptions entail. The player option likely means they have an understanding for a new deal next summer.

Ayton agrees to offer sheet with Indiana: 4 years, $133 million (Woj 7/14)
Deandre Ayton$30,913,750$32,459,438$34,005,125$35,550,813

This is the max that another team could offer, and now that an offer sheet is officially presented, that takes away sign-and-trade possibilities.

Update: Phoenix matched the offer as soon as it officially came in, so I don't know why they even went through this process instead of just making the offer themselves. 

I'm out of date after being out of town for a wedding but will catch up shortly!

Edwards agrees to return to Brooklyn (Keith Smith 7/6)
Kessler Edwards$1,637,965$1,927,894

Since the Nets already announced it before the moratorium ends later today, it's likely a minimum contract that can be signed already. It costs them slightly more than his $1,563,518 team option was going to be, but now he's on a multi-year deal. Scotto has now added that they have a team option on the second year again, which could result in him hitting restricted free agency for a longer team deal all over again, similar to Jae'Sean Tate with Houston this year.

Martin agrees to return to Miami: 3 years, $20 million (Tim Reynolds, Shams with details 7/6)
Caleb Martin$6,478,979$6,802,928$7,126,877

This means one less sign-and-trade option to make the math work for Miami in a possible KD trade, though that was always a tough sell with the hard-cap that would place on Brooklyn. Looks like Martin is getting the equivalent of the TP MLE since they only had Non-Bird rights, and they could still use the rest of the full MLE if needed while still remaining under the apron.

Bryant agrees to sign (back) with Lakers: 1 year deal (Haynes 7/5)
Thomas Bryant$1,836,090

LA can only offer minimums at this point, and now Bryant gets to go back to where he started his career and first showed promise before injuries hit in recent years.

Sumner agrees to sign (back) with Brooklyn (Woj 7/5)
Edmond Sumner$1,836,090

Sumner was traded to Brooklyn last year but was cut since he has an extensive injury history like Warren, so this probably isn't a guaranteed contract.

Warren agrees to sign with Brooklyn: 1 year deal (Shams, Woj with the one year 7/5)
T.J. Warren$1,836,090

This could be either part of the $6.5 million TP MLE, but the reporting kind of seems like the minimum, which would pay him $2,628,597 while counting at this cap figure.

Dieng agrees to sign with San Antonio (again): 1 year deal (Shams 7/4)
Gorgui Dieng$1,836,090

The Spurs have the most cap space in the league right now, but I'd be a little surprise if they used part of it on a 32 year old here rather than a minimum.

Ibaka agrees to return to Milwaukee: 1 year deal (Shams 7/4)

They had Early Bird rights for him, but a 1 year deal would mean a deal signed through Non-Bird rights or even the minimum. A bit of a surprise from Ibaka after he was mostly iced out of the playoff rotation and Portis was re-signed.

Hauser agrees to return to Boston: 3 years, $6 million (Adam Himmelsbach 7/3)
Sam Hauser$1,637,965$1,927,894$2,092,344

Projecting the minimum here after the Celtics declined his $1,563,518 team option in order to lock him into more years. We'll see how much is guaranteed, but in any case, this is some nifty work to get a lot more cost-controlled years. When they converted his two-way contract, they only had the minimum to sign him with, which has a limit of one additional year. By making that a team option and then declining it (likely after talking with his agent), they were able to now lock him up on a three-year deal in restricted free agency through Non-Bird rights.

Dragic agrees to sign with Chicago: 1 year, minimum contract (Schultz, Shams with details 7/3)
Goran Dragic$1,836,090

Friday, June 24, 2022

2022 Draft Week(-ish) Recap

And there goes the 2022 NBA Draft! There was a ton of action across the league, starting 10 days before the draft even started, so I wanted to round up all of the moves in one place.

Pre-Draft Deals

Denver sheds salary, swaps picks (Woj, June 13th)

Thunder receive:
JaMychal Green$8,200,000
 2027 1st round pick (protected 1-5 through '29, then becomes two 2nds, per Zach Lowe)

Nuggets receive:
#30 pick
Two future 2nd round picks

It felt like the immediate reaction to this was that it's typical of Denver to dump a good player in JaMychal Green to cut their luxury tax bill once they knew he'd pick up his player option, especially after they weren't willing to spend to keep President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly, but this isn't necessarily a bad deal. Yes, you'd think a team getting Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back would go all out with to contend with depth around Nikola Jokic, but swapping a pick five years from now for one in this draft and two 2nd rounders down the line is solid value. They also create a Trade Exception worth that same $8.2 million to possibly take in someone down the line, though it remains to be seen whether they'd actually add to their tax bill.

This was OKC's last chance to use their plethora of cap room for salary dumps like this before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's max deal kicks in on July 1st, so it's understandable that they didn't try to squeeze more out of this deal. They have so many players on rookie-scale contracts and upcoming 1st round picks already that it makes sense to push one so far down the line that it could capture more upside than the 30th pick. Plus, Green being a useful veteran on an expiring contract could possibly be eventually moved for more assets. 

Dallas adds Wood (Shams, June 15th)

Mavericks receive:
Christian Wood$14,317,459

Rockets receive:
Boban Marjanovic$3,500,000
Trey Burke$3,300,000
Sterling Brown$3,000,000
Marquese Chriss$2,193,920
#26 pick

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Looking Back at this Warriors Title and Ahead to the Offseason

When I got home from the Warriors' championship parade, a question from my friend stuck with me: Can they sign everyone this summer?

The short answer is yes, they can. The real answer is that it depends on the market, as usual. I've been thinking (and tweeting) about this topic for a long time, of course, but I figured it would be best to pour all of my thoughts on the team in one place. 

How Golden State Got Here


First, I want to look back at this this incredible title run for my former employer after they were +1100 to win it all with just a 48.5 win total over/under in the preseason according to Basketball Reference. There was reason for optimism, though, with the prospect of Klay Thompson finally returning from his ACL and Achilles tears and the team's 15-5 close to last season. They ultimately did not make the playoffs despite having the 8th-best record in the West due to it unfortunately being the first year of the Play-In, but they showed that the combination of Stephen Curry leading the offense, Draymond Green leading the defense, shrewd addition Andrew Wiggins contributing on both ends, and Jordan Poole emerging as another offensive creator all added up to a winning formula.

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

2022 NBA Lottery Reactions

I've written many times on here about how much I love the NBA lottery, so of course I had to come back to write some short thoughts on this year's proceedings. This isn't the most exciting draft class with no clear potential superstars at the top, but it's still exciting to see woebegone franchises see their luck turn with new franchise cornerstones thanks to the randomness of ping pong balls.

I wrote brief profiles for the consensus top-3 prospects for work, so #MakeYourPick on who will go #1 over on PlayPickUp.com. I didn't include perhaps my favorite prospect this year, Shaedon Sharpe, since he's not considered likely to go quite that high, but I think that could change based on who emerged as the winner tonight.


Thursday, February 10, 2022

Trade Summaries for all 2022 NBA Deals

After a long hiatus, I couldn't resist coming back to write again for the annual tradition of the NBA Trade Deadline! This is mostly just to keep a record of what trades have gone down in the new year, and I'll add some thoughts on deals later. For now, I'm summing things up with when deals went down, crediting who reported them, and details of the contracts and picks exchanged. Some of the draft pick details are from RealGM, these salaries are from a combination of Basketball Insiders and Spotrac, and my color coding is the same as usual: Player Option/Team Option/Not Fully Guaranteed.

Jazz shed salary (January 4th, Woj)

Thunder receive:
Miye Oni$1,782,621
2028 Jazz 2nd round pick

Jazz receive:
Cash considerations

Utah shaved Oni's salary from their luxury tax bill and opened up a roster spot, and Oklahoma City waived him right away before his salary became more guaranteed than the $850,331 he had from that point of the season. Easy business to add yet another draft pick.

New York adds Reddish (January 13th, Woj)

Knicks receive:
Cameron Reddish$4,670,160$5,954,454
Solomon Hill$1,669,178
2025 Nets 2nd round pick

Hawks receive:
Kevin Knox$5,845,978
2022 Hornets 1st round pick (protected 1-18, then 1-16 in '23, 1-14 through '25, then becomes '26 and '27 2nds)

I understood this one from both sides, and while I prefer New York's side of it, I didn't think it's necessarily a huge difference-maker like some portrayed it to be. Reddish has flashed tantalizing potential going back to high school, but he still hasn't improved his efficiency, especially his two point percentage. He finished his Hawks career at just 43.3% inside the arc to go with 32.9% from deep, and that's after an improvement to 36.2% on 3's this season. In theory, he can help lead bench units and eventually become a starter next to his former Duke teammate RJ Barrett, but so far coach Tom Thibodeux hasn't trusted him yet with just 50 total minutes since the trade. Knox similarly never panned out under Thibs, so swapping him out ahead of restricted free agency with one of their extra 1st rounders was a fair price to pay.

Atlanta had almost too many quality rotation options, so it's a solid move to cash one in to pick up a 1st, albeit a heavily protected one. Reddish is eligible for an extension this summer, and they probably didn't feel like one would come easily, especially after they've already handed out big deals to Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela, and Kevin Huerter. It's a disappointing but not unsurprising ending after taking Reddish 10th overall in the draft pick from trading Luka Doncic for Young in the 2018 draft.

Denver adds Forbes in 3-teamer (January 18th, Woj)

Nuggets receive:
Bryn Forbes$4,500,000

Celtics receive:
Bol Bol$2,161,512
P.J. Dozier$1,910,860

Spurs receive:
Juan Hernangomez$7,012,440$7,531,880
2028 Nuggets 2nd round pick (protected 31-33)

This one won't move the needle, but it was good business on all sides. Denver moved two of their many injured players for some bench reinforcements at just the cost of a 2nd rounder six years from now. Boston shed salary as part of their quest to duck the luxury tax, and by taking their new players into the Kemba Walker Trade Exception, they create a new TE equal to Hernangomez's salary with a later expiration date. Sitting outside of contention, San Antonio added an extra draft pick for a veteran on an expiring deal and got a free look at Hernangomez, who hardly played for the Celtics but has flashed usefulness in the past, ironically with Denver. 

Clips pull shocking addition for now and the future (February 4th, Woj)

Clippers receive:
Norman Powell$15,517,242$16,758,621$18,000,000$19,241,379$20,482,758
Robert Covington$12,975,471


Trail Blazers receive:
Eric Bledsoe$18,125,000$19,375,000
Justise Winslow$3,902,439$4,097,561
Keon Johnson$2,553,240$2,681,040$2,808,720$4,474,291
2025 Pistons 2nd round pick

It was equally surprising that Portland didn't get a future 1st in this deal and that it was the Clippers who were buyers despite their stars' injuries. Ty Lue has navigated his squad to stay in the Play-In mix, though, and I suppose there is still a chance that Kawhi Leonard and/or Paul George do come back. With Powell under contract for four more years as he returns to his UCLA roots, this is as much a trade about the future, and he has useful experience as both a starter and 6th man who is comfortable working off of stars, including with Leonard in Toronto when they won the 2019 title. Acquiring Covington's Bird rights is also valuable as they wouldn't otherwise have the opportunity to try to sign him to more than the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception in free agency.

I guess the Blazers had some buyers remorse after feeling obligated to give Powell that big contract over the summer after trading Gary Trent Jr. for him at last year's Deadline. Although this is a bit underwhelming of a return for giving up both him and Covington, Johnson was just picked in the 1st round last year and has a lot of potential with his athleticism. I was really surprised he fell to the 21st pick much like when Nassir Little fell to 25th a couple of years prior, and the Blazers have done well in developing the latter along with Anfernee Simons (24th), which is a promising sign. Bledsoe's contract only being guaranteed for $3.9 million this summer provides them some much-needed flexibility, and this drops them below the tax line while LA increases their bill by $19 million, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. At least, until the Clips' next move...