2021 NBA Offseason Tracker

The opening day of the NBA offseason is always a wild ride with a ton of action, and I'm here to track down all of the news. I will update each item with the years, money, and who broke the stories as they come in. My salary projections tend to be pretty accurate based on the total dollars and years that reported, and I'll make note of my reasoning for some of them.

Estimation/Player option/Team option/Not fully guaranteed

Ball agrees to sign-and-trade to Chicago: 4 years, $85 million (Shams)

Bulls receive:

Lonzo Ball

$19,767,442

$20,755,814

$21,744,186

$22,732,558

Pelicans receive:

Tomas Satoransky

$10,000,000

Garrett Temple

$4,667,442

?

?

2nd round pick

No reporting yet on Temple's deal aside from Marc Spears saying the last year isn't guaranteed, so I'm estimating an amount needed to match Ball's salary.

Barton re-signs with Denver: 2 years, $32 million (Haynes)

Will Barton

$15,384,615

$16,615,385

Hardaway re-signs with Dallas: 4 years, $72 million (Shams)

Tim Hardaway Jr.

$16,071,429

$17,357,143

$18,642,857

$19,928,571

8/9 UPDATE: It turns out that it is actually a $75 million contract, and the Mavs are front-loading it according to MacMahon. It's a smart move to have the max decreases per season since they are operating over the cap while not in danger of crossing the luxury tax this season.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

$21,306,818

$19,602,273

$17,897,727

$16,193,182

Conley re-signs with Utah: 3 years, $68 million (Shams)

Mike Conley

$20,987,654

$22,666,667

$24,345,679

2021 NBA Draft Week

After a slow start to the week, boy did things heat up. I'll start with all of the trades first to show the comparison in contracts (salaries from BasketballInsiders.com) and then list every team's draft results at the bottom. This isn't meant to go too deep in analysis but rather serve as a reference point for every move that transpired.

Player option/Team option/Not fully guaranteed

Memphis and New Orleans swap picks, bigs, and big contracts

Pelicans receive:

Jonas Valanciunas

$14,000,000

#17 and #51 picks

Grizzlies receive:

Eric Bledsoe

$18,125,000

$19,375,000

Steven Adams

$17,073,171

$17,926,829

#10 and #40 picks

Lakers' 2022 1st round pick (protected 1-10)

The action got started early with this surprising deal on Monday that actually can't become official until the new league season begins next week. It was already expected, but Memphis will need to decline the $13 million team option for Justise Winslow in order to have the cap room to absorb the contracts Bledsoe and Adams. This is another opportunistic move from Zach Kleiman and their front office to leverage their flexibility into adding more assets in the form of moving up seven and 11 spots in the 1st and 2nd round of this draft while also adding an extra 1st round pick next year. Bledsoe, who is rumored to be moved again, only has $3.9 million guaranteed in the final year of his deal, and Adams' salary for next year is likely close to what Valanciunas is looking for in his next contract anyway. Although it was somewhat stunning to see them move an offensive hub like this, it is refreshing to see a franchise be honest with themselves about where they are in their timeline and stay the course with value moves like this.

Conversely, one would hope that New Orleans isn't trying to rush things too soon after moving onto their third coach in three years. This isn't quite like when they had a young Anthony Davis and kept trading away future picks since this regime has a lot of extra 1st rounders to work with, but the talk of them making this deal to clear significant cap space for 35 year old Kyle Lowry is a puzzler. Once this deal goes through, they could create up to $35.9 million in cap space by renouncing restricted free agents Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart and waiving the non-guaranteed contracts of Wenyen Gabriel and Didi Louzada. Keeping the cap hold of Hart before signing him to a new deal would put them at about $26.4 million, and sign-and-trades involving either of their free agents and a potential incoming signing are also possible to keep them as an over the cap team with access to the full MLE. For now, they gave up a likely late 1st and some equity in this draft to create flexibility and get an offensive upgrade at center. I don't buy Valanciunas as a "floor spacer" next to Zion Williamson considering how few threes he actually takes, but it does make for a dangerous front court pairing, even if at the cost of their biggest problem: defense.

Philadelphia buys late 2nd 

76ers receive:

#53 pick

Pelicans receive:

$2 million cash

It was a bit odd for a pick this late to be sold hours before the draft even starts without any idea of who will be available, but Philly had money to spend before the new league year resets. As much as I'm against teams straight up selling draft assets, I understand it for New Orleans since they have four picks in just the 2nd round alone, and this is a nice amount for a pick in the 50's. 

Early Draft Talk: the Walker/Horford Trade and What's at Stake in the NBA Lottery

 Thunder receive:

Player	20-21	21-22	22-23
Kemba Walker	$34,379,100	$36,016,200	$37,653,300

#16 pick

2025 2nd round pick (better of Celtics' or Grizzlies')

Celtics receive:

Player

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

Al Horford

$27,500,000

$27,000,000

$26,500,000

Moses Brown

$1,250,000

$1,701,593

$1,846,738

$1,997,718

2023 2nd round pick (least favorable of Thunder's, Wizards', or the better of Mavericks' or Heat's)

That was quick. Just over two weeks after transitioning from coaching to the front office, Brad Stevens already made his first move, and it is a big one. Walker going from the All-Star who turned around the young Boston team that underachieved with Kyrie Irving in 2019 to needing a mid-1st round pick attached to shed his salary now is a pretty stunning turnaround. Knee issues have limited the 31 year old to playing in just 119 of 166 possible games, though, so the $73.7 million due to him over the next two seasons wasn't too appealing to Boston, especially as Jayson Tatum's max contract kicks in this summer. Hence the return of Horford, who was a valuable Celtic both on the floor and in the locker room from 2016 to 2019 and only has $41.5 million guaranteed on his contract. The 2022-23 season could add another $5 million in guarantees if the team makes the Finals next season or become fully guaranteed if they win it, which of course would be worth it.

With these savings, Boston is now about $9.4 million under the luxury tax threshold as they look to re-sign Evan Fournier without going too deep into it, and if they do retain him on the wing, they will have some interesting lineup choices to pick from. Barring the addition of a new point guard, it would seem that Marcus Smart, who is a year away from free agency himself, would be the nominal starter at that position with the offense running through Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Fournier could be a high end sixth man or start as a third wing with the other two both capable of battling against power forwards, and Horford could play center like he is best suited for at this point of his career. There is also the possibility to put Horford at power forward next to exciting young center Robert Williams or even 7'2" prospect Brown if they really want to play big or if Fournier signs elsewhere. The fact that this big of a move was made before hiring a new coach and knowing a preference in style might be the most surprising aspect of this. In some ways, it is the type of move Stevens' predecessor Danny Ainge would make by not being afraid to deal a big name to do what he thinks is best for the team, but the draft compensation here is a tough pill to swallow.

2021 NBA End of Season Power Rankings

The 2020-21 NBA season is officially in the books, so I wanted to take a little look at every team's season in total with some power rankings! To provide a nice summary, I am listing record, playoff seed if applicable, point differential, and rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency from NBA.com along with (what I consider) an interesting note for each. These are how I personally view them based on their complete season profile and how they look heading into the playoffs. 

#1. Nets: 48-24, #2 seed, +4.5 (#1 offense, #22 defense)

I'm reluctant to really call Brooklyn the championship favorite with this defense, but at 117.3, they just broke the NBA record for offensive efficiency that Dallas set last year at 115.9. While it's hard to get a true idea of their ceiling since Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving only played 8 games together, they had a +7.2 net rating (119.6, 112.5) in 202 minutes together. Furthermore, a torn Achilles is the only thing that has stopped Durant in his last three postseasons, and I don't think a big enough deal has been made about how ridiculously well he has bounced back from that. Averaging 26.94 points, 7.06 rebounds, 5.57 assists, 0.71 steals, and 1.29 blocks in only 33.03 minutes with 53.73%/44.97%/88.24% shooting is unheard of after that massive of an injury. The two time Finals MVP made 57.73% of his 2's with an 83.3% mark in the restricted area, and with a career-high 25.4% of his shots coming from the mid-range, he converted an efficient 53.6% of those shots. Rolling with him flanked by two other offensive savants and a multitude of interesting options feels like the right call.

#2. Jazz: 52-20, #1 seed, +9.2 (T-#4 offense, #3 defense)

Objectively, Utah have been the best team in the league by far as they followed up a 27-9 first half of the season with a 25-11 finish. This strong of a point differential and record typically fits the profile of a big title favorite, and indeed, they win it all in 36.8% of Basketball Reference's simulations while the next closest is 13.3%. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight's projections have them as the favorite to win 26% of the time using their Elo forecast with the next closest at 14%, but they're only third with a 14% chance using their RAPTOR player ratings. I lean towards the latter with regards to the postseason considering that this core group has only won one playoff series in the past three years since Donovan Mitchell was drafted, and it doesn't help that he hasn't played since spraining his ankle on April 16th. They deserve this high of a ranking based on the regular season, but I wouldn't be surprised if an upset occurs in the first two rounds.

#3. Clippers: 47-25, #4 seed, +6.2 (#3 offense, #8 defense)

I was tempted to follow suit with the RAPTOR ratings and pick LA to win it all like I did last year, but I'm hesitant after their collapse to blow a 3-1 lead in the second round last year. I also didn't love how much they rested players down the stretch in what appeared to be an avoidance of any chance of the Lakers in the 1st round, which dropped them to the 4 seed. Still, the dynamic duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George looks even better this season: they had a +17.6 net rating in the 1,028 minutes played together. The team went 32-11 when both played, which would translate to over 61 wins in a full 82 game schedule, and that was with different lineups around them. The original starting unit with Patrick Beverley, Nicolas Batum, and Serge Ibaka went 14-5 with a +16.7 net rating in 264 minutes of sharing the floor, and then injuries actually led to an even more cohesive group as the stars paired with Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Ivica Zubac went 15-5 with a +18.8 net rating in 215 minutes. Now that Beverley and Ibaka have recently returned, it will be interesting to see what combinations new coach Ty Lue rolls with, but in any case, they'll go as far as Leonard and George take them. Remarkably, the two of them actually posted incredibly similar stats that included elite efficiency and well-rounded contributions:

The 49ers and the #3 Pick

At long last, the draft is just about here! That means all of the speculation around who the 49ers will take with the 3rd pick is almost over, but I figured I might as well put together some comprehensive thoughts on the matter instead of just some tweets about the quarterbacks here or there. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are widely expected to be the first two selections by the Jaguars and Jets, respectively, so mock drafts all essentially start with which passer San Francisco selects. Since the Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch regime has been remarkably quiet in terms of media leaks, let's ignore all of the rumors about who the likely pick will be for now and dig into the options.

Justin Fields is the second best prospect in my eyes, even ahead of Wilson, with his combination of a high ceiling and floor. At ages 20 and 21, he performed at the highest level to lead Ohio State to a 20-2 record with the two losses only coming in the College Football Playoff. Between the two seasons, he completed 68.39% of his 26.32 attempts per game to average 244.23 passing yards with 63 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions for an impressive Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) of 10.76, and he added 39.41 rushing yards per game with 15 more touchdowns on the ground. It's worth remembering that yards lost on sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, but in any case, he proved that he is much more of a passer than a runner even with his elite physical profile.

2021 NBA Trade Deadline Week Review

After it was unclear all week how much action there would be this week, a flurry of moves actually made this the busiest NBA trade deadline ever, and I've got them all here! All of the details that have been reported so far have been included, and I've gradually added my thoughts on each move as the night went along.

Contract information courtesy of BasketballInsiders.com with non-guaranteed salaries, team options, and player options noted.

Clips shed former 1st rounder (Woj)

Kings receive:

Mfiondu Kabengele

$2,075,880

Hawks 2022 2nd (protected 31-55)

Cash considerations

Clippers receive:

Kings 2022 2nd (likely protected 31-55)

As I tweeted immediately after the news earlier in the week, Kabengele's days were numbered once Los Angeles already declined the team option on the 27th pick in the 2019 rookie contract after just a year. Now this completely clears his salary and provides more room to operate under their hard cap for other trades and/or the buyout market. Neither draft pick is likely to convey, so this is just a matter of Sacramento receiving some cash to cover the big man's contract and maybe take a look at the 23 year old for the rest of the season. Since the small Dewayne Dedmon Trade Exception was about to expire anyway, it's a solid move, and if they do like Kabengele, they can re-sign him for up to the $2,174,880 that was his declined option. (After writing this section earlier in the week, it does now appear that he will simply be waived for the roster spot due to their other trades, according to The Athletic's Jason Jones.)

Kings get an upgrade at backup point guard (Woj)

Kings receive:

Delon Wright

$9,000,000

$8,526,316

Pistons receive:

Cory Joseph

$12,600,000

$12,600,000

Lakers 2021 2nd

Kings 2024 2nd

Although I didn't expect Wright to be among the group of players going for two picks, I've long been a fan going back to his college days at Utah. He's in the midst of a career year with averages of 10.4 points, 5.0 assists against only 1.3 turnovers, 4.6 rebounds, and 1.6 steals in just 29.2 minutes, and his shooting coming around to a solid 46.4%/34.8%/78.9% line has helped open things up for him. Sacramento doesn't project to be a team with any significant cap room this summer, especially as they look to re-sign starting center Richaun Holmes, so adding the nearly 29 year old on a fair salary and operating as an over the cap team instead is a nice move. At 6'5", Wright is a backup point guard who is easily capable of playing alongside either member of their impressive young backcourt of D'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, and now in the offseason they can focus the Mid-Level Exception on a frontcourt signing.

Joseph only has $2,400,000 guaranteed for next season, so Detroit saves over $6 million this summer as they continue their rebuild. Adding more draft equity for a player who doesn't fit their timeline helps that cause, even if the first pick will likely be in the 50's this year. Trading away a productive player like Wright also could lead to them ensuring that they have top-3 odds in the lottery. Dennis Smith Jr. hasn't been impressive running the point since being acquired and rookie Killian Hayes will likely continue to look raw whenever he finally returns from the hip injury that's limited him to seven games.

Nuggets bring back JaVale McGee (Shams; Woj with terms)

Nuggets receive:

JaVale McGee

$4,200,000

Cavaliers receive:

Isaiah Hartenstein

$1,620,564

$1,762,796

Nuggets 2023 2nd (protected 31-46)

Nuggets 2027 2nd

Two 2nd round picks ended up being a theme for the day, and this deal also continues a theme of reunions between players and former teams from the offseason. Again, it seems like a little high of a price for a bench player like McGee, especially considering some of the buyout guys who are becoming available, but it's a solid move to get a more experienced backup for Nikola Jokic in the playoffs. That role could potentially be filled down the line by Bol Bol or rookie Zeke Nnaji, so it works out that McGee has no future salary commitments. To make the salaries work, Denver had to use part of the Jerami Grant Trade Exception and have $5,325,000 left of it while Cleveland should create one equivalent to McGee's salary.

One of my initial thoughts about the picks attached was that it also covered getting off of Hartenstein's player option for next season, but the 22 year old big man has put up decent production in limited minutes. He wasn't always in the rotation, though, and it would probably be tough to trust a slow footed defender with almost zero playoff experience to play for somewhat of a contender in Denver. Maybe the Cavs can continue to develop him as a backup to Jarrett Allen, but if not, they at least did well to get draft assets out of a pending free agent without really affecting their cap sheet going forward.

The Players I'm Counting On In My 2021 Bracket

March Madness is officially upon us, and after four enthralling First Four games, the final bracket is now set. I thought about doing a deep dive into how I made my picks, but instead, here's a brief look at the players behind some of my key picks. While there are a ton of amazing prospects to keep an eye on from a draft perspective, these are the ones that I think could drive their teams to strong runs in the tournament.

Jalen Suggs, Gonzaga

You could also put Corey Kispert or Drew Timme in this spot, but I'm going with the most talented player on the hands-on favorite to win it all. The freshman lead guard has shown poise beyond his years and made impressive plays on both ends since the start of the season. In only 28 minutes per game, Suggs averaged 14.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.0 steals with a strong 51.2%/35.4%/73.9% shooting line. Although he hit a bit of a lull during conference play that saw his deep ball shooting drop to 25%, he rose to the occasion during the WCC tournament to make 5 of 10 over two games. That includes 23 points in the tournament final, when the former high school quarterback also made great reads on defense to disrupt BYU and put the game away. Strong guard play led by this likely top-5 pick is why I am picking the Bulldogs to take the title and complete the first undefeated season in 45 years.

Scottie Barnes, Florida State

I feel like Florida State could either make the Final Four or get upset in their first game with a lot of turnovers if Isaiah Miller wreaks havoc for UNC Greensboro. I ended up going with the former due in part to Barnes, who has shown time and again to be a winning player with Gold medals for Team USA at the U16, U17, and U19 levels between 2017 and 2019. Interestingly, the 6'9", 227 lb forward has converted to point guard in a sixth man role as a freshman, leading the team with 4.2 assists per game in just 24.9 minutes. Defense across multiple positions is probably his main calling card, and good things seem to happen for the Seminoles whenever he checks into the game. Ever since ESPN's Kevin Pelton described him as a mix of Ben Simmons and Kyle Anderson, I haven't been able to get that out of my head, and I'm counting on the likely lottery pick's feel for the game to lead a long, tough 4 seed to the last weekend.

Evan Mobley, USC

Maybe I'm relying too much on draft prospects, but USC is actually an underrated team as a 6 seed. KenPom.com even has them a #14 in their rankings, higher than 3rd seeded Kansas (#22) that they'll probably face in their second game. Defeating 2 seed Iowa to make the Elite Eight like I've picked might be asking too much, but if any big man can give Wooden Award candidate Luka Garza trouble, it's Mobley. The #1 pick contender joined Anthony Davis as the only Power 5 athlete to be named his conference's Freshman of the Year, Player of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year, and he's peaking at the right time with 5 blocks and his career high of 26 points in both of his conference tournament games. I'm a little worried that the Trojans won't have enough offense around him to make this sort of sustained run, but their defense, led by Mobley, is top-notch.

Quick Review of Two Veteran Forwards Dealt Ahead of the Deadline

Bucks receive:

P.J. Tucker

$7,969,537

Rodions Kurucs

$1,780,152

$1,861,068

Their 2022 1st round pick back

Rockets receive:

D.J. Augustin

$6,666,667

$7,000,000

$7,333,333

D.J. Wilson

$4,548,280

Right to swap their 2021 2nd round pick for Bucks 2021 1st round pick (protected 1-9)

Bucks 2023 1st round pick

Suns receive:

Torrey Craig

$1,620,564

I don't think the final deal will officially be a three teamer, but Milwaukee moving Craig is pretty much a direct result of adding another forward in Tucker. It was a bit surprising that he didn't work out as a low-risk signing at the minimum, but taking a look at an experienced wing defender is well worth it for Phoenix, who is essentially getting him for free since they had an open roster spot. Likewise, the cost of an addition wasn't very prohibitive at all for the Bucks, who were able to dump another unsuccessful offseason signing in Augustin. At a base level, the only value they're giving up is moving back from their pick in the late 20's (#25 as of this writing) to Houston's pick in the early 30's (currently #33). Swapping their 2022 1st that they already owed for the 2023 version was necessary due to the Stepien Rule that prevents teams from being without any 1st round picks in consecutive years (2021 and 2022 in this case), and it could possibly allow them to add a helpful piece to their core sooner rather than later.

Super Bowl LV

I took a break from making picks since my pick 'em pool was only for the regular season, but now the big game is just about here! My would be choices went 7-4-1 to improve a little bit on my mediocre 131-125 season, and this weekend I'm going with...Kansas City -3.

The fact that this matchup has some Super Bowl XXXII vibes does worry me. In that game, the hot shot quarterback that won an MVP at a young age and was seeking a repeat championship was upset by an aging first ballot Hall of Famer. However, the analogy obviously isn't perfect since Tom Brady has already had way more success in title games than John Elway had up until that point of his career to avoid any "This one's for John" factor. I also have more confidence in Patrick Mahomes (1.4% career interception rate) taking care of the ball better than Brett Favre (3% rate at that point), especially against a team that he already carved up this season. The Chiefs relented late in that game to result in a blown cover, but their three point margin would be good enough this time around.

Just How Bad Should the Warriors Want the Timberwolves to Be?

The Warriors beating the Timberwolves in back to back games this week was a little extra satisfying for the franchise and their fans since they own the latter's top-3 protected 1st round pick after last year's massive trade that centered around D'Angelo Russell and Andrew Wiggins. Minnesota now has the third worst record in the league at 4-13 with just one win more than bottom-dwelling Washington, so that pick has a ton a value. Naturally, the talk around the fanbase during these teams' meetings has been about the trade and whether or not they should be rooting for the Timberwolves to have the very worst record heading into the NBA Lottery.

Unpacking the Moving Parts of the James Harden Trade

Nets receive:

James Harden

$41,254,920

$44,310,840

$47,366,760

Cavs 2nd round pick in '24

Rockets receive:

Victor Oladipo

$21,000,000

Dante Exum

$9,600,000

Rodions Kurucs

$1,780,152

$1,861,068

Bucks unprotected 1st round pick in '22 (via Cavs)

Net' unprotected 1st round picks in '22, '24, and '26

Right to swap picks with Nets in '21, '23, '25, and '27

Cavaliers receive:

Taurean Prince

$12,250,000

$13,000,000

Jarrett Allen

$3,909,902

Pacers receive:

Caris LeVert

$16,203,704

$17,500,000

$18,796,296

Worst of Rockets, Mavericks, or Heat 2nd round pick in '23

1/16 UPDATE: Due to an issue with LeVert's physical, they also receive the Cavs 2024 2nd that was originally going to Brooklyn, who are also now sending $2.6 million

Whoa. Just...wow. I refrained from doing my usual offseason tracker due to work conflicts at the time, but today's absolute blockbuster is the perfect time for me to jump back into writing about the NBA. There is a lot to unpack from the news that Woj and Shams reported almost simultaneously, so let's break things down team by team starting with the principal participants. Indiana's inclusion might technically end up as a separate trade afterwards rather than part of a four teamer, anyway.

Brooklyn is taking quite the risk by leaving all of those draft picks and potential pick swaps unprotected, and that decision of course stands out after their disastrous 2013 trade for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry that crippled the previous regime. Those stars were much closer to the ends of their careers at the time, and the resulting teams were so bad that after the first pick in 2014 (#17, James Young), the ensuing selections were #3 in 2016 (Jaylen Brown), #1 in 2017 (Markelle Fultz, traded for Jayson Tatum), and #8 in 2018 (Collin Sexton). Harden is only 31 years old as he joins 32 year old Kevin Durant and nearly 29 year old Kyrie Irving, so the team seemingly won't be in danger of falling off the cliff as quickly as last time. They all have the option to hit free agency in 2022, however, so rookie head coach Steve Nash faces a tall order of integrating the three stars rather quickly without a training camp.

NFL 2020 Week 17 Picks

There is a reason that the vast majority of fantasy football leagues don't include Week 17: things get weird. It's right up there with the first couple weeks of the season as the hardest to predict because you don't know for sure who is actually going to play or for how long, and that is especially true this year with a spike in COVID-19 cases after Christmas. Some of the actual spreads in Las Vegas have changed by quite a bit due to some news, but the lines in the CBS Pick 'Em Pool are still the same. Keeping those factors in mind, here goes nothing:

Home Favorites

Bills -3.5 versus Dolphins

1/3 UPDATE: Early morning reports indicate that Buffalo won't play their starters for much of the game, so I'm switching this pick to Dolphins +3.5.

Browns -7.5 versus Steelers

Patriots -3.5 versus Jets

Colts -14.5 versus Jaguars

Road Underdogs

Falcons +6.5 at Buccaneers

Cardinals +1.5 at Rams

Home Underdogs

Bengals +11.5 versus Ravens

Texans +7.5 versus Titans

Broncos +2.5 versus Raiders

Road Favorites

Vikings -6.5 at Lions

Cowboys -2.5 at Giants

Saints -6.5 at Panthers

Packers -5.5 at Bears

Chargers -3.5 at Chiefs

Seahawks -4.5 at 49ers

Washington -1.5 at Eagles

Last week: 7-9

Season total: 124-116