Friday, July 30, 2021

2021 NBA Draft Week

After a slow start to the week, boy did things heat up. I'll start with all of the trades first to show the comparison in contracts (salaries from BasketballInsiders.com) and then list every team's draft results at the bottom. This isn't meant to go too deep in analysis but rather serve as a reference point for every move that transpired.

Player option/Team option/Not fully guaranteed

Memphis and New Orleans swap picks, bigs, and big contracts

Pelicans receive:
Jonas Valanciunas$14,000,000
#17 and #51 picks

Grizzlies receive:
Eric Bledsoe$18,125,000$19,375,000
Steven Adams$17,073,171$17,926,829
#10 and #40 picks
Lakers' 2022 1st round pick (protected 1-10)

The action got started early with this surprising deal on Monday that actually can't become official until the new league season begins next week. It was already expected, but Memphis will need to decline the $13 million team option for Justise Winslow in order to have the cap room to absorb the contracts Bledsoe and Adams. This is another opportunistic move from Zach Kleiman and their front office to leverage their flexibility into adding more assets in the form of moving up seven and 11 spots in the 1st and 2nd round of this draft while also adding an extra 1st round pick next year. Bledsoe, who is rumored to be moved again, only has $3.9 million guaranteed in the final year of his deal, and Adams' salary for next year is likely close to what Valanciunas is looking for in his next contract anyway. Although it was somewhat stunning to see them move an offensive hub like this, it is refreshing to see a franchise be honest with themselves about where they are in their timeline and stay the course with value moves like this.

Conversely, one would hope that New Orleans isn't trying to rush things too soon after moving onto their third coach in three years. This isn't quite like when they had a young Anthony Davis and kept trading away future picks since this regime has a lot of extra 1st rounders to work with, but the talk of them making this deal to clear significant cap space for 35 year old Kyle Lowry is a puzzler. Once this deal goes through, they could create up to $35.9 million in cap space by renouncing restricted free agents Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart and waiving the non-guaranteed contracts of Wenyen Gabriel and Didi Louzada. Keeping the cap hold of Hart before signing him to a new deal would put them at about $26.4 million, and sign-and-trades involving either of their free agents and a potential incoming signing are also possible to keep them as an over the cap team with access to the full MLE. For now, they gave up a likely late 1st and some equity in this draft to create flexibility and get an offensive upgrade at center. I don't buy Valanciunas as a "floor spacer" next to Zion Williamson considering how few threes he actually takes, but it does make for a dangerous front court pairing, even if at the cost of their biggest problem: defense.

Philadelphia buys late 2nd 

76ers receive:
#53 pick

Pelicans receive:
$2 million cash

It was a bit odd for a pick this late to be sold hours before the draft even starts without any idea of who will be available, but Philly had money to spend before the new league year resets. As much as I'm against teams straight up selling draft assets, I understand it for New Orleans since they have four picks in just the 2nd round alone, and this is a nice amount for a pick in the 50's. 

Suns trade for Shamet 

Suns receive:
Landry Shamet$3,768,342

Nets receive:
Jevon Carter$3,650,000$3,925,000
#29 pick

It's kind of amazing that Shamet will play for his fourth different team while still on his rookie contract, but a shooter like him is always in demand in trades, especially since Monty Williams was an assistant coach with him in Philly. The 24 year old has a career 39.7% three point percentage on 5.3 attempts in only 24 minutes, and he's a little bit of an underrated creator with 2.4 assists per 36 minutes against just 1 turnover. This deal gives Phoenix the Devin Booker backup that they needed, and since the cap hold for the 29th pick is just over $2 million, it also keeps them further away from the luxury tax threshold as they attempt to re-sign Cam Payne.

This really is a win-win even from a contract perspective for both sides since the raise that Shamet will get next year would be extra costly for Brooklyn given how deep into the luxury tax they are going to be. Instead, they have Carter locked into a cheap deal and another rookie at just the beginning of a cost controlled contract to go with their #27 pick, and those cheap deals will be crucial to trying to fill out the rotation as the roster gets more and more expensive. Carter is also a nice fit next to their stars as a 3+D "point guard" who doesn't need the ball in his hands and is a 38.1% career shooter, albeit on only 2.1 attempts of a less difficult variety than Shamet;s. Turning 26 in September, you pretty much know what you're getting in the rugged defender.

Westbrook joins fourth team in four years in return home 

Wizards receive:
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope$13,038,862$14,004,703
Kyle Kuzma$13,000,000$13,000,000$13,000,000
Montrezl Harrell$9,720,900
#22 pick

Lakers receive:
Russell Westbrook$44,211,146$47,063,478
2024 and 2028 2nd round picks

The first of many shockers on the day, it seemed like LA was set to finalize the rumored deal for Buddy Hield as a much needed shooter once Harrell officially picked up his player option, but they instead pivoted to former UCLA star and Long Beach native Russell Westbrook. Turning three rotation players on mid-priced contracts into the former MVP isn't a bad move in a vacuum, but a flamethrower like Hield would fit better around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, especially since that potential trade reportedly wouldn't have included draft compensation. Stars of this caliber can make things work, of course, but The Brow will really have to embrace playing center more often to help their limited spacing, especially come playoff time, and take advantage of their speed in what should be a dangerous transition attack.

For Washington, getting back a 1st rounder that isn't terrible in this year's deep draft helps make up for the future pick that they gave up for Westbrook, and now they have a lot more cap flexibility. They save $8.5 million this year while also generating a Trade Exception of that same amount, and with Caldwell-Pope's contract only guaranteed for $4.9 million next year, $29 million could be taken off the books for next season. Other moves to come this offseason will change this, but they can now conservatively project for over $20 million in cap space next summer while still retaining Bradley Beal, who is still reportedly staying loyal to the franchise rather than requesting a trade. 


Cleveland adds another point guard in Rubio 

Cavaliers receive:
Ricky Rubio$17,800,000

Timberwolves receive:
Taurean Prince$13,000,000
Wizards 2022 2nd round pick

At first blush, adding a veteran point guard to a team already featuring Darius Garland and Collin Sexton didn't make a lot of sense, but it should actually work well for Cleveland since the latter, who is also the subject of trade talks, operates as a shooting guard most of the time anyway. Rubio can provide a steady hand off the bench with more of a defensive mindset to help mentor Garland as he continues his promising development.

Trading away the helpful but expensive veteran (again) gives Minnesota some breathing room of around  $10 million under the luxury tax threshold as they look to make moves. Prince provides depth at the forward spot that they were a little lacking, and they can use the full Mid-Level Exception of up to $9.5 million to sign a new backup point guard.

Charlotte gets their veteran center in Detroit salary dump 

Hornets receive:
Mason Plumlee$8,137,500$8,525,000
#37 pick

Pistons receive:
#57 pick

Everyone knew that addressing the center position was Charlotte's biggest priority this offseason, and it's no surprise that Michel Jordan's team added another player that once played for a blue blood college basketball program. This move eats up a chunk of what was projecting to be around $23 million in cap space (while keeping Devonte' Graham's cap hold on the books), but Plumlee is a serviceable enough big when not asked to have too large of a role. With only $4.3 million guaranteed for next year's salary, this isn't too costly of an addition, and the 20 pick jump is certainly helpful.

I'm curious as to why Detroit felt the need to make this salary dump since I didn't anticipate them being big players in free agency, but this move does allow them to potentially get up to about $19.5 million in cap space if they waive Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder, and Tyler Cook and renounce their free agents. Perhaps they just wanted to open up more minutes for their youngsters and will stay operating as an over the cap team with a Trade Exception the equivalent of Plumlee's salary now in tow. In that case, they are now plenty far enough away from the luxury tax to use the full MLE of $9.5 million, the $3.7 million Bi-Annual Exception, and/or re-sign their own free agents like Wayne Ellington and Hamidou Diallo, and the cost to clear salary wasn't too prohibitive with just the swap of 2nd rounders.

Indiana moves up early in the 2nd

Pacers receive:
#31 pick

Bucks receive:
#54 and #60 picks
2024 2nd (More favorable of Pacers or [Less favorable of Cavaliers or Jazz]
2026 2nd (More favorable of Pacers or Heat)

Another somewhat unusual move for 2nd round picks before the selection is on the clock, but the 31st pick always has a lot of value since it is basically another 1st rounder while coming without the guaranteed salary of the rookie scale. That sword can cut both ways with young players locked in for a set number of years versus coming cheaper, and Indiana paid a pretty hefty price for this pick.

Now onto what happened during the actual draft!

Houston trades for fourth 1st round pick

Rockets receive:
#16 pick (Alperen Sengun)

Thunder receive:
Pistons 2022 1st round pick  (protected 1-16 through '24, 1-11 through '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)
Wizards 2023 1st round pick (protected 1-14, 1-12 in '24, 1-10 in '25, 1-8 in '26, then becomes '26 and '27 2nds)

Charlotte moves back into the 1st

Hornets receive:
#19 (Kai Jones)

Knicks receive:
2022 1st round pick (protected 1-18, then 1-16, then 1-14 through '25)

LA swoops in for falling prospect

Clippers receive:
#21 (Keon Johnson)

Knicks receive:
#25 pick
Pistons 2024 2nd

Indiana continues moving up

Pacers receive:
#22 pick (Isaiah Jackson)

Wizards receive:
Aaron Holiday$3,980,551
#31 pick

Memphis trades up again

Grizzlies receive:
#30 pick (Santi Aldama)

Jazz receive:
#40 pick
Two future 2nd round picks

OKC starts consolidating picks

Thunder receive:
#32 pick (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl)

Knicks Receive:
#34 pick and #36 pick

LA cashes in future 2nd rounders for a guard again

Clippers receive:
#32 pick (Jason Preston)

Magic receive:
Pistons 2025 or 2026 2nd round pick
Cash considerations

Portland gets into the draft

Trail Blazers receive:
#43 pick (Greg Brown)

Pelicans receive:
Future 2nd round pick
Cash considerations

LA and New Orleans continue their trends of the draft

Clippers receive:
#51 pick (Brandon Boston Jr)

Pelicans receive:
Future 2nd round pick
Cash considerations


Utah sheds salary day after the draft

Thunder receive:
Derrick Favors$9,720,900$10,183,800
Future 1st round pick (has to be 2024 or later)

Jazz receive:
Future 2nd round pick


8/1 UPDATE: I'm adding the last couple of trades that happened over the weekend before it officially becomes the new league year, and then I will make a new post with the start of free agency.

Boston, Atlanta, and Sacramento strike a 3-way deal ahead of free agency

Celtics receive:
Kris Dunn$5,005,350
Bruno Fernando$1,782,621
2023 2nd round pick

Hawks receive:
Delon Wright$8,526,316

Kings receive:
Tristan Thompson$9,720,900


Boston takes on Richardson as Dallas clears salary

Celtics receive:
Josh Richardson$11,615,328

Mavericks receive:
Moses Brown$1,701,593$1,846,738$1,997,718

Draft results
Pistons
#1 Cade Cunningham
#42 Isaiah Livers
#52 Luka Garza
#57 Balsa Koprivica

Rockets
#2 Jalen Green
#16 Alperen Sengun
#23 Usman Garuba
#24 Josh Christopher
Matthew Hurt (two-way)

Cavaliers
#3 Evan Mobley

Raptors
#4 Scottie Barnes
#46 Dalano Banton
#47 David Johnson

Magic
#5 Jalen Suggs
#8 Franz Wagner

Thunder
#6 Josh Giddey
#18 Tre Mann
#32 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
#55 Aaron Wiggins

Warriors
#7 Jonathan Kuminga
#14 Moses Moody

Kings
#9 Davion Mitchell
#39 Neemias Queta

Grizzlies
#10 Ziaire Williams
#30 Santi Aldama

Hornets
#11 James Bouknight
#19 Kai Jones
#37 J.T. Thor
#56 Scottie Lewis

Spurs
#12 Josh Primo
#41 Joe Wieskamp

Pacers
#13 Chris Duarte
#22 Isaiah Jackson
Duane Washington (two-way)

Wizards
#15 Corey Kispert
#31 Isaiah Todd

Pelicans
#17 Trey Murphy
#35 Herbert Jones

Hawks
#20 Jalen Johnson
#40 Sharife Cooper

Clippers
#21 Keon Johnson
#32 Jason Preston
#51 Brandon Boston Jr.

Knicks
#25 Quentin Grimes
#34 Rokas Jokubaitis
#36 Miles McBride
#58 Jericho Sims

Nuggets
#26 Nah'Shon Hyland

Nets
#27 Cameron Thomas
#29 Day'Ron Sharpe
#44 Kessler Edwards
#49 Marcus Zegarowski
#59 RaiQuan Gray

76ers
#28 Jaden Springer
#50 Filip Petrusev (stashing in Europe)
#53 Charles Bassey
Aaron Henry (two-way)

Bulls
#38 Ayo Dosunmu

Jazz
#40 Jared Butler

Trail Blazers
#43 Greg Brown
Trendon Watford (two-way)

Celtics
#45 Juhann Begarin
Sam Hauser (two-way)

Bucks
#54 Sandro Mamukelashvili
#60 Georgios Kalaitzakis

Lakers
Joel Ayayi (two-way)
Austin Reaves (two-way)

Timberwolves
McKinley Wright (two-way)

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