It was a rough end to last week for me, and if I hadn't ended up with the Ravens -10.5 after writing last week's post, it would've been even worse. This week is off to a better start after the first of many home 'dogs won outright, though, and it'll be interesting to see how all of these road favorites fare.
This week: 1-0
Last week: 7-8
Season total: 89-87
Road Favorites
Colts -3.5 at Jaguars
Hey maybe Cody Kessler taking over at quarterback will spark this underachieving Jacksonville squad! Or maybe it's just a last ditch desperation move after already firing their offensive coordinator. Either way, Andrew Luck and Indy should continue to roll after a slight hiccup resulted in last week's win being closer than expected.
Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers
One of these weeks Carolina will end their skid, and Jameis Winston might be due for a turnover or two after such a clean game last week. Tampa's defense plays much better at home than on the road (hard to do worse after all), but it's still not an intimidating obstacle in the way of Christian McCaffrey's hot streak.
Ravens -1.5 at Falcons
For what it's worth, this isn't a favorite anymore in Vegas as the line has swung towards the home team, and I actually thought Atlanta should've been favored at home from the start. Then I saw
Rich Hribar's note about Baltimore averaging a league-low 4.7 yards per play compared to Atlanta's 6.3, which ranks 30th. Maybe Lamar Jackson won't have to match as many points as initially thought in his first road start.
Broncos -3.5 at Bengals
Another Hribar note is that Cincinnati has allowed opponents to score on 50.9% of their possessions, the worst in the league. Jeff Driskel had some exciting moments in relief of Andy Dalton, but now that Denver's resurgent defense has had a week to prepare for the fact that it'll be him at quarterback, I'm not too worried here.
Chiefs -15.5 at Raiders
Everyone knows how good Andy Reid is coming out of a bye by now, right?
Road Underdogs
Bills +5.5 at Dolphins
Let's hope that my first time picking Buffalo all season doesn't come back to haunt me, but this is too large of a spread between two mediocre division rivals. I'm expecting some ugly football, so give me the points.
Jets +9.5 at Titans
I really don't like with any AFC East team not named the Patriots, but again, this is too many points to lay with an inconsistent team. I have little doubt that Tennessee is the superior team, but their defense was shockingly disappointing last week after they had an early 10-0 lead.
Vikings +6.5 at Patriots
Per Hribar, Minnesota's opponents have scored a touchdown on just 16.1% of their drives, the lowest rate in the league, so I don't see New England them pulling away in this one. I hate picking against them at home, but the best game of the weekend should be a close contest.
Home Underdogs
Giants +4.5 versus Bears
I've gone back and forth on this one because it's another game that Chicago's defense could win by themselves like I said they would last week, but asking them to actually do that again is a tall order. Backup quarterbacks sometimes struggle in the following game after catching defenses by surprise in their first action, so I'll take the points against Chase Daniel this time.
Lions +9.5 versus Rams
LA keeps getting these large spreads on the road, and it's just too hard for me to trust their defense, even with Aqib Talib coming back from IR. I don't love this pick, but I'm basically counting on Snacks Harrison and this revamped run defense slowing down Todd Gurley enough to stay competitive.
Home Favorites
Texans -4.5 versus Browns
Since Week 4, only 16.7% of drives against Houston have resulted in touchdowns, the second best mark in the league, according to Hribar. Taking the points with this new Cleveland team was tempting, but facing this defense on the road is a tough task. It's hard to believe that Houston will win nine straight after that 0-3 start, yet here we are.
Packers -14.5 versus Cardinals
One more Hribar stat on defenses: Green Bay has allowed a touchdown on just 14% of opponents' drives at home this year, the best in the league. This line still seems inflated considering the state of things in what is likely Mike McCarthey's last year, but there's no way I'm taking Josh Rosen on the road against Aaron Rodgers.
Seahawks -10.5 versus 49ers
San Francisco played Seattle tough last year, but I don't see Nick Mullens being the quarterback to finally breakthrough against them in this difficult road environment. And given their lack of a consistent pass rush, we'll probably see Russell Wilson doing Russell Wilson things a lot.
Steelers -3.5 versus Chargers
Last week was the typical Pittsburgh letdown out of nowhere that seems to happen once a year on the road, so we'll see if they have their usual bounce back in a home prime time game. Melvin Gordon being out for a couple weeks certainly doesn't help LA either, and the Steelers defense should provide just a bit more resistance than the Cardinals did last week.
Eagles -6.5 versus Redskins
I was tempted to take the points against Philly's banged up secondary again, but I'm not sure Colt McCoy will really make them pay on the road. Add in the distraction of Washington claiming Reuben Foster on waivers, and I can't take the inferior team here.
