Here it is, the best Sunday of the year with two amazing games to watch. Both are rematches of a couple of the most exciting games of the year and feature four of the top five offenses in FootballOutsiders' DVOA, so I can't wait to sit on the couch for six hours and enjoy the show.
Last week: 3-1
Season Total: 137-127
Saints -3 versus Rams
Having Aqib Talib will be a huge boost for LA after missing him when these teams first met, but Cooper Kupp also had a big game that he won't be able to replicate now that he tore his ACL. With the line now down to 3, I'm leaning towards the more experienced quarterback and coach, especially in the Superdome.
Chiefs -3 versus Patriots
Maybe I'm factoring home field advantage in too much, but Kansas City is now 8-1 at home compared to 5-3 on the road while New England is 9-0 and 3-5, respectively. And this game is of course in Arrowhead, where the Chiefs have drastic defensive splits. The Patriots playing in their 13th AFC Championship Game in Tom Brady's 17th year as the starter is ridiculous, but this feels like it could go the way of the 2006, 2013, and 2015 road games instead of the 2004 win.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Saturday, January 12, 2019
2018 Divisional Round Picks
Chiefs -5 versus Colts
There's been a lot of talk about the playoff history of these teams, but guess what? Patrick Mahomes is probably a better a quarterback already than the passers in those past Kansas City heartbreakers. It pains me to pick against Andrew Luck, especially since his massive comeback against the Chiefs is a part of the playoff lore, but this is a tough spot for him on the road having to match points with the likely MVP.
Cowboys +7 at Rams
I'd give the edge to LA winning this straight up at home, but the Dallas defense definitely gives them a chance, especially in an area that they have a strong fan base due to their training camps in Oxnard. The Rams' disappointing showing in their home game last year doesn't exactly give me confidence in them, either.
Patriots -4 versus Chargers
I've gone back and forth on this one because while I think LA is the more complete team, it's hard picking against Bill Belichick in a home playoff game. Something's got to give because New England is undefeated at home while the Chargers' only road loss was in their hometown against the Rams. Including their London "home" game, they're now 9-0 away from LA, but then you have to consider the fact that Philip Rivers is 0-7 against Tom Brady in his career. I'll take the GOAT here.
Eagles +8 at Saints
Like in the other NFC game, I think the better team will win but not cover. No matter the odds, Nick Foles just keeps getting it done, so it's about time I try to take it advantage of it before he's likely knocked out. Their quick passing game should mitigate the pass rush and attack New Orleans' up and down secondary.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
2018 NFL Wild Card Round Picks
Maybe Week 17's aren't so bad after all considering that I had my best weekend of the year. That salvaged my season in my picks pool on CBS Sports, but now that it's over, I'm using the spreads listed on VegasInsider.com for a better Wild Card Round than we've seen in recent years since all of the division winners could make a little run.
Last week: 12-4
Season total: 132-124
Colts +1.5 at Texans
The Week 4 overtime win in Indy is what got Houston going on their winning streak before the Colts ended it in Houston four weeks ago, so this rubber match shouldn't hold any surprises between division rivals. Indy is the hotter team as that started a four game winning streak of their own as part of winning 9 out of 10 to end the year, and I think Vegas is reflecting that by not giving the Texans a full 3 points at home. The pass defense has been springing leaks that Andrew Luck should take advantage of with T.Y. Hilton as usual in that building, and the fact that it will be Deshuan Watson's first playoff game doesn't hurt either.
Cowboys -2.5 versus Seahawks
This was my hardest pick of the weekend because Seattle has the better quarterback and coach, which is usually good enough. I don't really trust them away from home, though, and they don't have any obvious matchups to take advantage of against this stout defense. With the big games running backs have been having against them, I'll ride with Zeke Elliott at home in this one.
Last week: 12-4
Season total: 132-124
Colts +1.5 at Texans
The Week 4 overtime win in Indy is what got Houston going on their winning streak before the Colts ended it in Houston four weeks ago, so this rubber match shouldn't hold any surprises between division rivals. Indy is the hotter team as that started a four game winning streak of their own as part of winning 9 out of 10 to end the year, and I think Vegas is reflecting that by not giving the Texans a full 3 points at home. The pass defense has been springing leaks that Andrew Luck should take advantage of with T.Y. Hilton as usual in that building, and the fact that it will be Deshuan Watson's first playoff game doesn't hurt either.
Cowboys -2.5 versus Seahawks
This was my hardest pick of the weekend because Seattle has the better quarterback and coach, which is usually good enough. I don't really trust them away from home, though, and they don't have any obvious matchups to take advantage of against this stout defense. With the big games running backs have been having against them, I'll ride with Zeke Elliott at home in this one.
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| Elliott's improvement as a receiver has been a welcome addition to this offense. |
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