Saturday, January 5, 2019

2018 NFL Wild Card Round Picks

Maybe Week 17's aren't so bad after all considering that I had my best weekend of the year. That salvaged my season in my picks pool on CBS Sports, but now that it's over, I'm using the spreads listed on VegasInsider.com for a better Wild Card Round than we've seen in recent years since all of the division winners could make a little run.

Last week: 12-4
Season total: 132-124

Colts +1.5 at Texans

The Week 4 overtime win in Indy is what got Houston going on their winning streak before the Colts ended it in Houston four weeks ago, so this rubber match shouldn't hold any surprises between division rivals. Indy is the hotter team as that started a four game winning streak of their own as part of winning 9 out of 10 to end the year, and I think Vegas is reflecting that by not giving the Texans a full 3 points at home. The pass defense has been springing leaks that Andrew Luck should take advantage of with T.Y. Hilton as usual in that building, and the fact that it will be Deshuan Watson's first playoff game doesn't hurt either.

Cowboys -2.5 versus Seahawks

This was my hardest pick of the weekend because Seattle has the better quarterback and coach, which is usually good enough. I don't really trust them away from home, though, and they don't have any obvious matchups to take advantage of against this stout defense. With the big games running backs have been having against them, I'll ride with Zeke Elliott at home in this one.
Elliott's improvement as a receiver has been a welcome addition to this offense.
Chargers +3 at Ravens

Baltimore obviously won this game going away in LA just a couple of weeks ago, but I still feel that the Chargers are the better team overall with their balanced offense. It might feel overly simple to say that if the Ravens fall behind big, their run-oriented offense won't be able to come back with Lamar Jackson, but the fact of the matter is that he is about to become the youngest starting quarterback ever in the playoffs. Give me Philip Rivers and the hundreds of jokes about LA playing 16 road games after they avenge the home loss that was infested with Ravens fans.

Bears -6.5 versus Eagles

The Nick Foles magic is going to run out eventually, and on the road against the best defense in the league is as likely a time as ever. Their running back by committee isn't likely to work here, and becoming one dimensional could force Foles into some mistakes. On the other side, I'm confident that Matt Nagy will scheme up plenty of opportunities for this passing attack to take advantage of Philadelphia's undermanned secondary. There's a reason that this is the biggest spread of the weekend, and as long as Mitchell Trubisky doesn't implode, Chicago should have their first playoff win in eight years.
Fingers crossed that the extra rest will allow Eddie Jackson to lead this playmaking defense.

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