Sunday, January 20, 2019

2018 NFL Championship Sunday Picks

Here it is, the best Sunday of the year with two amazing games to watch. Both are rematches of a couple of the most exciting games of the year and feature four of the top five offenses in FootballOutsiders' DVOA, so I can't wait to sit on the couch for six hours and enjoy the show.

Last week: 3-1
Season Total: 137-127

Saints -3 versus Rams

Having Aqib Talib will be a huge boost for LA after missing him when these teams first met, but Cooper Kupp also had a big game that he won't be able to replicate now that he tore his ACL. With the line now down to 3, I'm leaning towards the more experienced quarterback and coach, especially in the Superdome.

Chiefs -3 versus Patriots

Maybe I'm factoring home field advantage in too much, but Kansas City is now 8-1 at home compared to 5-3 on the road while New England is 9-0 and 3-5, respectively. And this game is of course in Arrowhead, where the Chiefs have drastic defensive splits. The Patriots playing in their 13th AFC Championship Game in Tom Brady's 17th year as the starter is ridiculous, but this feels like it could go the way of the 2006, 2013, and 2015 road games instead of the 2004 win.

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