Saturday, October 25, 2014

2014 NFL Week 8 Picks

Week 8

San Diego +9 at Denver

Detroit -3.5 versus Atlanta (in London)

Minnesota +2.5 at Tampa Bay

Chicago +6 at New England

Kansas City -7 versus St. Louis

Carolina +5.5 versus Seattle

Buffalo +3 at New York Jets

Miami -6 at Jacksonville

Houston -3.5 at Tennessee

Cincinnati +2 versus Baltimore

Philadelphia +1.5 at Arizona

Indianapolis -3.5 at Pittsburgh

Oakland +6.5 at Cleveland

Green Bay +2.5 at New Orleans

Washington +9.5 at Dallas

Last week: 7-8
Season total: 55-48-3

Saturday, October 18, 2014

2014 NFL Week 7 Picks

Week 7

If I were a betting man: I'd parlay Buffalo -5.5, Indianapolis -3, and Pittsburgh -3.

New England -9.5 versus New York Jets

Baltimore -6.5 versus Atlanta

Buffalo -5.5 versus Minnesota

Chicago -3 versus Miami

Indianapolis -3 versus Cincinnati

Jacksonville +5.5 versus Cleveland

Detroit -2 versus New Orleans  

Carolina +6.5 at Green Bay

Tennessee +6 at Washington

Seattle -6 at St. Louis

Kansas City +3.5 at San Diego

New York Giants +6.5 at Dallas

Arizona -3.5 at Oakland

San Francisco +7 at Denver

Pittsburgh -3 versus Houston

Last week: 11-3-1
Season total: 48-40-3

Saturday, October 11, 2014

2014 NFL Week 6 Picks

Week 6

If I were a betting man, you know I'm always inclined to include the Monday night game in parlays for hedging purposes, so it's no surprise I'm including the Niners -3.5 in a good matchup. I'd throw them in with New England -2.5 and Pittsburgh +1.5.

Indianapolis -2.5 at Houston

This was a little tough for me at first due to the history of home field advantage on TNF, but like I tweeted, I couldn't use that as an excuse to go against Andrew Luck. He's just playing on another level right now, and his favorite weapon, T.Y. Hilton, kills the Texans every time.
Uh oh defenses: Gronk's healthy.

New England -2.5 at Buffalo

The Patriots looked more like the team we're used to seeing in prime time, and I think they'll keep it up despite playing in a hostile environment. The Bills' pass rush worries me a bit, but New England's offensive line seems to be hitting their stride. The pass protection has gotten some help from the tight ends since they've gone back to more 12 personnel sets as Tim Wright has become more acclimated alongside Rob Gronkowski, and they should have nice matchups in coverage, as well.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

2014 NFL Week 5 Picks

Week 5

If I were a betting man, hedging against the Patriots on MNF would have worked last week, and I'll recommend the same strategy this week. I'd parlay Cleveland +1.5, New York Giants -4, and Seattle -7.

Green Bay -9.5 versus Minnesota

This was an easy call as soon as Teddy Bridgewater was announced as inactive. I immediately added the Packers D/ST in one of my fantasy leagues and fired them up, along with Eddie Lacy, in a DraftKings league. Unfortunately, I happened to pick a league that didn't get filled and was thus cancelled without me realizing it, negating my value picks for that team. (Not that anybody really cares besides me.)

Something that bothered me in what was an otherwise uneventful second half was Phil Simms continuing the narrative that Bridgewater dropped in the draft due to a lackluster pro day. That bothered me at draft time, as well, and it's idiotic if true. I wholeheartedly agree with Jim Nantz: why does one showing negate a whole season's worth of scouting? Or in this case, Bridgewater was the best quarterback in his class for two years; you can't ignore his whole body of work.

Chicago +2.5 at Carolina

Reaves had some fans in the draft community.
I picked against both these teams last week, but I didn't expect them to struggle like that. The Bears at least looked good in the first half before HaHa Clinton-Dix made a great play to force Martellus Bennet into a bobble outside of the end zone and the clock to run out. On the other hand, the Panthers are missing a lot of bodies, and while undrafted rookie running back Darrin Reaves could provide a spark, I don't think the matchups are in their favor, especially in pass the passing game