Wednesday, November 23, 2016

2016 NFL Week 12 Picks

Happy Thanksgiving! I'm getting this one out quickly because of the three Thursday games.

Cowboys -6.5 versus Redskins

This line seems too high against a decent Washington team until you consider that they have to travel on a short week after a night game on Sunday and that Ezekiel Elliott can put a game away late behind this incredible offensive line. Kirk Cousins has been on fire and now has R.Kelley as an effective new workhorse to keep a balanced attack, but I just don't believe in their defense, especially against an efficient offense on the road.
Dak Prescott's been great and put Zeke in a position to succeed.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

2016 NFL Week 11 Picks

Keeping this one extra short due to family commitments and might have to do the same next week since it's starting to become that time of year. Who knows, maybe that'll break my streak of mediocre picks!

Colts -2.5 versus Titans

Tennessee is playing really well right now, but Indy just beat them in their house four weeks ago. I don't feel great about it, but I like the home team coming off the bye here with a reasonable spread.
Having Donte Moncrief back healthy should help make the Colts offense more consistent.

Saturday, November 12, 2016

2016 NFL Week 10 Picks

We're getting into the dog days of the season, and I need a good week after my worst picks in a while. Lots of injuries are harder to keep track of this time of year, but at least we have a better feel for who teams are by this point.

Chiefs +3 at Panthers

Kansas City did what they needed to last week at home against an inferior opponent, and now they get their most important players on offense back as quarterback Alex Smith and running back Spencer Ware have both cleared the concussion protocol. Jeremy Maclin aggravating his groin injury in the first quarter last week is a blow, but they haven't been on reliant on him as much this year thanks to Chris Conley, Albert Wilson, and speedster rookie Tyreek Hill stepping up on the outside. Meanwhile, Carolina let L.A. hang around last week and eventually gave up a late touchdown to only win by 3 and push. Their secondary is still a problem, and I can already see a big day for tight end Travis Kelce against them. Panthers tight end Greg Olsen will likely be covered by star safety Eric Berry, and I think the Chiefs can match up well on defense overall. Give me the points and better team, even on the road.
Dontari Poe and this defense will need to win the battle inside to get the road W.

Saturday, November 5, 2016

2016 NFL Week 9 Picks

Another week with six teams on bye leaves limited options for picks, but at least the TV schedule is a bit more balanced than usual with only six 10:00 AM PST games and four late afternoon contests. Also like last week, none of the spreads are too egregious, with all the lines currently at a touchdown or less, making for some interesting teaser opportunities if you so choose.

Vikings -6 versus Lions

This admittedly feels a tough too high considering how badly Minnesota has played since their bye week with their injuries along the offensive front taking a toll and offensive coordinator Norv Turner's startling resignation. However, they are finally back at home for the first time since Week 5, and they have been a dominant 3-0 in their new stadium, outscoring opponents 72-37. A bad offensive line doesn't travel well, so they should do a better job at home against a Detroit defense that ranks last in Football Outsiders DVOA. The Lions have lost their last three on the road after their last second comeback at Indy to start the season, and I think their aerial attack will have a hard time against 4th best pass defense in DVOA.
Sam Bradford will look to get this offense back on track at home under his former OC Pat Shurmur