Saturday, November 19, 2016

2016 NFL Week 11 Picks

Keeping this one extra short due to family commitments and might have to do the same next week since it's starting to become that time of year. Who knows, maybe that'll break my streak of mediocre picks!

Colts -2.5 versus Titans

Tennessee is playing really well right now, but Indy just beat them in their house four weeks ago. I don't feel great about it, but I like the home team coming off the bye here with a reasonable spread.
Having Donte Moncrief back healthy should help make the Colts offense more consistent.

Bengals -2.5 versus Bills

Cincinnati is coming off a short week versus a team off the bye, so it was surprising to see the line open at -4. This is much more palatable now as I still believe they're the more complete team and are back at home.

Steelers -8 at Browns

After blowing that exciting game at home against Dallas last week, Pittsburgh has to hit the road, but at least they're facing the winless Browns, whom Ohio native Ben Roethlisberger is 20-2 against in his career. The only question is whether their defense that I've been down on all year will let up a big lead, and I'm betting that Mike Tomlin will have his unit ready after their last game.

Dolphins -2 at Rams

Going against a quarterback making his debut isn't always easy since there isn't any much film on him, but Miami is playing some great defense of late while doing enough on offense thanks to Jay Ajayi running behind a healthy offensive line. I was somewhat holding out hope that Jared Goff would just sit his entire rookie year until he has a better situation around him, but Jeff Fisher might be feeling the pressure since his rumored extension might not be finalized.
Miami should be able to put the pressure on #1 pick Jared Goff.
Raiders -6 versus Texans (in Mexico City)

Perhaps the young Raiders have learned how to handle success since they followed up their exciting overtime win in Tampa with a convincing performance versus Denver before their bye. This may be a neutral site game, but Houston's defense has been inconsistent away from home and will have their hands full against this powerful offensive front.

Last week: 2-3
Season total: 30-29-2

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