2017 NFL Week 12 Picks

Didn't get to write up my picks for this week yet with the early games, but I have Vikes -2.5, Bolts +1.5, and Skins -7.5. Happy Thanksgiving!

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) November 23, 2017

Week 11 wasn't quite as good as I had hoped, but I was quite thankful for Thursday's results. It's back to a full slate now that every team has had a bye, so now is the time to separate from the pack at the top of my picks pool.

Last week: 8-6
Season total (counting the Thanksgiving games): 87-76

Titans -3.5 at Colts

Rishard Matthews' likely absence hurts, but facing the #26 pass defense in DVOA is a great bounce back spot for Marcus Mariota after a 10 day layoff. In fact, Tennessee's remaining schedule unfolds pretty nicely for them to secure their playoff spot in the open AFC field.

Falcons -8.5 versus Buccaneers

I was already going to say this is the week Julio Jones breaks loose in a big way for his fantasy owners, and that was even before I read that he has 68 catches for 1,110 yards and 8 touchdowns in 10 career games against Tampa. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been surprisingly effective thanks to poor competition, but I doubt he'll be able to keep pace in this game.

Browns +8.5 at Bengals

Sometimes it seems like Cleveland just wants to give away the cover with the way DeShone Kizer has turned the ball over late in games. I feel like a broken record, but Cincy's putrid offensive line going up against this solid defensive front should keep this one close, though. Give me the points.

2017 NFL Week 11 Picks

Fresh off my best week of the season that won me the top prize in my picks pool, things are off to a good start again after Pittsburgh took care of business on Thursday. Let the good times roll!

Good to know since I picked Steelers -6.5. Feels like a back and forth one where Ben puts it away big late, at home. https://t.co/w1I3o1seh9

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) November 17, 2017

Last week: 11-3

Season total: 76-70

Browns +7.5 versus Jaguars

Cleveland continues to give teams some trouble before falling apart late, but they're getting close and closer to that elusive first W. They probably won't get it here with rookie DeShone Kizer having to face this elite defense with the possibility of two backup tackles starting, but I think they can hang around at home, especially with Corey Coleman coming back healthy.

Saints -7.5 versus Redskins

I was tempted to take Washington because this New Orleans run is bound to end at some point, but with this game in the Superdome, the Saints wins will be marching in a bit longer most likely. The New Orleans defense is up to #5 in Football Outsiders DVOA to go along with the #2 offense thanks in part to remarkable balance since the Adrian Peterson trade.

Chiefs -10.5 at Giants

In case you forgot about Andy Reid's record coming off a bye, it's 16-2 straight up and 13-5 against the spread. New York just lost to the previously winless 49ers to fall to 1-8. Let's not overthink this one.

2017 NFL Week 10 Picks

Just when I thought I was out, Jeremy Lane pulled me back in with that blocked extra point after Arizona's garbage time score on Thursday. I've been thinking about only posting my top picks of the week like last year, but I'm feeling better about this week after my Seahawks -5.5 pick was preserved.

Last week: 7-6
Season total: 65-67 

Saints -2.5 at Bills

This line seems fishy considering how both teams have performed recently, but the thing is that it already takes into account how much better Buffalo plays at home. With E.J. Gaines continuing to miss time, I don't think their defense holds up, though.

Steelers -10.5 at Colts

Speaking of home/road differences, I hate laying this many points with Pittsburgh on the road, but I have a hard time seeing Indy staying with them all the way through. After all, I saw how they almost blew the game against Tom Savage last week.

Lions -11.5 versus Browns

I was tempted to take the points here considering how Cleveland has hung in their games before last week's bye, but I think this is a get right spot for Detroit at home. Matthew Stafford is primed to win someone the Millionaire Maker in DraftKings here.

Matthew Stafford delivers a BEAUTIFUL pass to @MarvinJonesJr for a 25-yard @Lions TOUCHDOWN! #OnePride #DETvsGB pic.twitter.com/DyJ98r122e

— NFL (@NFL) November 7, 2017

Phoenix finally ships off Eric Bledsoe

Here it is, the first NBA trade now that the season has started! This is what it looks like based on the report from Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe and BasketballInsiders.com's salary numbers:

Phoenix gets:

Greg Monroe

$17,884,176

Milwaukee's 1st round pick (protected 1-10, 17-30 in '18; 1-3, 17-30 in '19; 1-7 in '20; then unprotected)

Milwaukee's 2nd round pick (protected 31-47 in '18 and then expires)

Milwaukee gets:

Eric Bledsoe

$14,500,000

$15,000,000

Those are some unique protections on the picks, but they make sense for a Suns team that doesn't necessarily want too many selections in this draft class alone. In addition to their own, they are likely to have Miami's 1st that's only top-7 protected, so it may be more useful to add the Bucks' 2019 1st when there are lighter protections. This upcoming draft has a lot of star power with DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic, Michael Porter Jr., Marvin Bagley III, and Mohamed Bamba likely at the top, but it's not as deep as this past class in the middle where the pick could fall. There's a decent chance that the Bledsoe addition will help Milwaukee finish among the best 13 records in the league to ensure that this year's 2nd will convey, as well, so this should end up being a solid trade package considering their lack of leverage in negotiations. Staying patient after sending the malcontent point guard home two weeks ago allowed them to increase their draft capital and pick up a solid veteran big man on a large, expiring contract. Monroe is still only 27 if things go well enough to keep him around during their continued rebuild, but it is more likely that they try to flip him again for more assets, potentially adding to the overall return for Bledsoe, or buy him out for some cost savings. This also freed up more cap space next year, so they can get to around $27 million in room depending on how they handle their non-guaranteed contracts and where the draft picks land.

Milwaukee now has some interesting back court combination options.

2017 NFL Week 9 Picks

Last week saw a couple of misses by that darn half point, but that's OK. The process is getting back on track. WE CAN BUILD ON THIS! Or at least, I thought I could until I forgot how different Buffalo plays on the road and started the week off 0-1 yet again. Whoops.

Last week: 6-7
Season total: 58-61

Titans -3.5 versus Ravens

Hopefully the bye week allowed the balky hamstrings of Marcus Mariota, DeMarco Murray, and Corey Davis to heal up and allow their offense to get back to peak efficiency after some fits and starts this year. The 10 days off also allowed Joe Flacco to get over the concussion after that scary hit on TNF, but you just can't trust their offense, especially on the road.

Jaguars -4.5 versus Bengals

So far, Jacksonville has been an every other game team, but does last week's bye mean they're back on schedule in an odd week? If that's not the hard hitting analysis you're here for, then I'll offer the fact that they lead the league in sacks while Cincinnati's offensive line is their biggest weakness.

Falcons +1.5 at Panthers

I went with Carolina last week on account of their stout defense's matchup with a suspect offense, but this time I don't think their offense can keep up with Atlanta's. Matt Ryan has had turnover issues so far this year, but if they get some positive regression to the mean in that area, they could go on a run.

Eagles -7.5 versus Broncos

It's Brock Osweiler starting on the road against the team with the best record? Yeah? You can't make the spread high enough.