Saturday, November 11, 2017

2017 NFL Week 10 Picks

Just when I thought I was out, Jeremy Lane pulled me back in with that blocked extra point after Arizona's garbage time score on Thursday. I've been thinking about only posting my top picks of the week like last year, but I'm feeling better about this week after my Seahawks -5.5 pick was preserved.

Last week: 7-6
Season total: 65-67 

Saints -2.5 at Bills

This line seems fishy considering how both teams have performed recently, but the thing is that it already takes into account how much better Buffalo plays at home. With E.J. Gaines continuing to miss time, I don't think their defense holds up, though.

Steelers -10.5 at Colts

Speaking of home/road differences, I hate laying this many points with Pittsburgh on the road, but I have a hard time seeing Indy staying with them all the way through. After all, I saw how they almost blew the game against Tom Savage last week.

Lions -11.5 versus Browns

I was tempted to take the points here considering how Cleveland has hung in their games before last week's bye, but I think this is a get right spot for Detroit at home. Matthew Stafford is primed to win someone the Millionaire Maker in DraftKings here.


Chargers +4.5 at Jaguars

Well, here's a test for the Jacksonville splits on odd and even weeks. More importantly, LA is getting Denzel Perryman back from IR could be huge for their leaky run defense against Leonard Fournette.

Packers +4.5 at Bears

I don't feel great about taking the points here, either, but this is a little too much for me to trust Mitchell Trubisky with after he lost yet another weapon after that scary Zach Miller injury. Although Chicago's defense might win this by themselves, Brett Hundley already showed his garbage time appeal last week.

Jets -2.5 at Buccaneers

Things have come full circle, and I'm back to picking New York after trying to pick on them in recent weeks. In the battle of mediocre quarterbacks against their old teams, Ryan Fitzpatrick is missing Mike Evans due to suspension for that ridiculous cheap shot he took on Marshon Lattimore after more Jameis Winston antics. Tampa's defense is also the easier matchup here, so I'm counting on Josh McCown continuing his hot streak.

Vikings -1.5 at Redskins

Like New Orleans, this is another line that seems too easy due to the better team being on the road. I know Minnesota's recent struggles after a bye, both against the spread and straight up, but I'm counting on overall talent here, especially with their stout defense against Washington's banged up offense.

Titans -5.5 versus Bengals

After not covering last week due to a missed extra point and garbage time touchdown, I'm doubling down on Tennessee against a different AFC North Opponent. The A.J. Green fight was as surprising as when Andre Johnson destroyed Cortland Finnegan considering the quiet demeanor of both, and although I expect him to have a big bounce back game, I still can't trust Cincy's offensive line to hold up overall.



Rams -11.5 versus Texans

One team is coming off a huge 51-17 win on the road while the other is starting their backup quarterback on the road and is also missing stars on defense. That's enough for me.

49ers +0.5 versus Giants

Part of me was hoping that new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo would be making his debut this week since Joe Staley is returning to help the pass protection, but ever since they traded their likely high second round pick for him (which was actually the same price I was hoping for during this past draft), it made the most sense to hold him out until after the Week 11 bye to get him ready. In any case, this is a winnable game at home against a New York team that has seemingly quit on Ben McAdoo.

Falcons -2.5 versus Cowboys

This line has been anticipating Ezekiel Elliott's suspension being reinstated all week long, and even though Atlanta let me down last week, I'm sticking with them at home here. I mean, Julio Jones can't give me a near heart attack with a huge drop again, right? RIGHT?!

Patriots -7.5 at Broncos

New England tends to have a tough time in Denver, but they're coming off a bye against a team in free fall right now. There's no way you can convince me to take Brock Osweiler against them.


Panthers -9.5 versus Dolphins

There is always the risk of the backdoor cover against Jay Cutler, but their defense should take care of business at home against him and this questionable rushing attack. This is also a good chance that Christian McCaffrey builds on his breakout game on the ground since he can beat Miami's linebackers to the edges.

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