Saturday, November 4, 2017

2017 NFL Week 9 Picks

Last week saw a couple of misses by that darn half point, but that's OK. The process is getting back on track. WE CAN BUILD ON THIS! Or at least, I thought I could until I forgot how different Buffalo plays on the road and started the week off 0-1 yet again. Whoops.

Last week: 6-7
Season total: 58-61

Titans -3.5 versus Ravens

Hopefully the bye week allowed the balky hamstrings of Marcus Mariota, DeMarco Murray, and Corey Davis to heal up and allow their offense to get back to peak efficiency after some fits and starts this year. The 10 days off also allowed Joe Flacco to get over the concussion after that scary hit on TNF, but you just can't trust their offense, especially on the road.

Jaguars -4.5 versus Bengals

So far, Jacksonville has been an every other game team, but does last week's bye mean they're back on schedule in an odd week? If that's not the hard hitting analysis you're here for, then I'll offer the fact that they lead the league in sacks while Cincinnati's offensive line is their biggest weakness.


Falcons +1.5 at Panthers

I went with Carolina last week on account of their stout defense's matchup with a suspect offense, but this time I don't think their offense can keep up with Atlanta's. Matt Ryan has had turnover issues so far this year, but if they get some positive regression to the mean in that area, they could go on a run.

Eagles -7.5 versus Broncos

It's Brock Osweiler starting on the road against the team with the best record? Yeah? You can't make the spread high enough.

Colts +12.5 at Texans

The CBS lines in my pool don't change once they're released on Tuesdays, so taking the extra points here seems like the easy call after the tragic Deshaun Watson ACL tear.

Saints -7.5 versus Buccaneers

The New Orleans defense has really hit their stride due in large part to first round pick Marshon Lattimore, and this will be a big test for him against Mike Evans. Their usually reliable offense was a couple of surprising Mark Ingram fumbles away from covering last week, and they face an intimidating defense here.

Rams -3.5 at Giants

I'm not worried about the cross country trip because there's just such a gap between these teams at this point. They surprised everyone the last time a top corner was suspended, but Janoris Jenkins' absence is likely to be felt this time around against LA's impressive passing attack.

Seahawks -7.5 versus Redskins

Washington couldn't overcome their numerous offensive line injuries last week and now have to go across the country to face a much more difficult defense. Meanwhile. Russell Wilson has put the team on his back and is line for another big day in this matchup.


49ers +2.5 versus Cardinals

San Francisco also has a ridiculous amount of injuries, on the offensive line in addition to the defense and top receiver Pierre Garcon, but they get Drew Stanton at home. I'd say it was dumb for them to be throwing with him right before the half in their last game, but that interception was likely coming at some point anyway.

Chiefs -1.5 at Cowboys

The spreads not changing midweek hurts me here after the Ezekiel Elliott saga was delayed yet again, but I'm still sticking with Kansas City despite the prospect of their leaky run defense now facing Zeke. Whether it's that they're on the road or an every other week thing, Tyreek Hill's track record suggests he's in line for a big game this week, and Dallas' defense doesn't have the defensive backs to stop him.

Raiders -2.5 at Dolphins

Miami looks like a mess on both sides of the ball right now and just traded away one of their best players, Jay Ajayi, at the deadline. Oakland hasn't been very consistent in their own right, but in a matchup of Derek Carr versus Jay Cutler with broken ribs, I think you know who I'm siding with.

Lions -2.5 at Packers

Detroit is probably better than I've given them credit for this week and had plenty of chances to pull the upset last week against a superior opponent than they're facing in this one. I want to believe in Brett Hundley as a decent option, especially at home, but until he proves it, I think you have to go against him.

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