Addressing the 49ers' Needs

NFL free agency begins next week, and now that the draft combine and franchise tag deadline are in the rear view, it's the perfect time to look at the outlook for one of 2018's most interesting teams, the San Francisco 49ers. Depending on the sportsbook, Vegas has given them around 20-1 odds to win the Super Bowl next year after finishing last season on a five game winning streak with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, and the former Patriot has already been re-signed at the highest annual salary in the league (at least until Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers reset the market). A 6-10 team that started 0-9 being within the top ten favorites may seem ambitious, but this franchise has some precedent for quick turnarounds: the 49ers' first Super Bowl winner in 1981 went 13-3 after being 6-10 and 2-14 the previous two years. Their record before coach Kyle Shanahan arrived this past season? 2-14.

I'm not saying this team is ready to win it all this year, but they might not be as far away as the casual fan might think if they can make some key additions. Quarterback is often considered the most important position in sports for a reason, and the turnaround under Garoppolo is an example why, as the offense went from being ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards, yards per play, and points before he took over to being in the top five in each. Furthermore, the defense experienced a similar improvement to the top 10 in those same categories, and although that can partly be attributed to rookie defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and a lineup filled with young players getting more comfortable as the season progressed, the offense no longer put them in disadvantageous situations. With the fifth most salary cap space per OverTheCap.com and nine draft picks (selections 9, 59, 70, 74, 128, 143, 184, 227, and 240) at the disposal of John Lynch and the front office, here are their biggest needs and some options to fill them to at least make them playoff contenders.

This coach-QB pairing is cause for celebration.

Cornerback: 3rd round round pick Ahkello Witherspoon came on strong down the stretch, starting the final nine games and earning an 81.1 grade from Pro Football Focus, but even if he grows into more than a solid starter, there's still a massive hole across from him with Dontae Johnson often struggling and not expected back in free agency. K'Waun Williams made a strong enough first impression to earn the first extension under the new regime early in the season, but at just 5'9" he is limited to nickel duties, especially in Saleh's Cover 3 scheme from Seattle that prefers more length on the outside. That role still put him on the field for 56.18% of the team's defensive snaps despite missing two games, though, showing that you can never have enough corners in today's pass happy NFL. You can expect them to add at least one veteran capable of starting on the outside (as evidenced by their reported interest in Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Vontae Davis, and David Amerson already) and draft another corner early, ideally with one of them able to also playing in the slot to provide competition and depth for Williams.

Free agent options

• Being just under 5'10", Malcolm Butler may not be a perfect fit, but he has shown over the past three years that he is a high-level starter and only just turned 28. He's played a variety of roles in New England with their game plan specific schemes, so strange Super Bowl benching that arguably cost them this year's championship notwithstanding, I'm not concerned about his ability to play zone in the Cover 3 or shadow man-to-man. 
• Trumaine Johnson is the other corner considered among the best free agents and often mentioned with the 49ers due to his hometown of Stockton, CA and great length at 6'2" with 33.25" arms, but I'm not convinced he'll be worth the huge contract he'll get based on his inconsistency over the years.
• Kyle Fuller's combination of production, size, and youth might be the most intriguing of all the options, but Chicago placed the transition tag on him so that they can match any offer sheet he signs. With their other starting corner a free agent on this list, I don't think the Bears are going to let their former 1st round pick get away.
• Given more of a mid-tier price range, Aaron Colvin is probably my favorite option based on him only being 26, his ability to play in the slot, and the connection to Saleh, who was on the Jacksonville coaching staff the previous three seasons and runs essentially the same scheme. With Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye starring on the outside, Colvin was limited to nickelback, but I think he's talented enough to excel in a larger role, somewhat in a similar way to how Casey Hayward has become a star as a Charger after an up-and-down tenure in Green Bay.
• Prince Amukamara also overlapped with Saleh in Jacksonville, and although he never became the star expected when picked 19th overall in 2011, he has been a reliable starter on the outside. His 81.2 PFF grade in Chicago this season actually wasn't far behind his teammate Fuller, but with his 29th birthday months away, I don't expect a price tag nearly as high.
• I hadn't put a lot of thought to Rashaan Melvin after he finished his breakout season on injured reserve, but after the Better Rivals podcast made the case for him as a late bloomer with standout athleticism, I realized that he could be this year's A.J. Bouye without as expensive of a salary commitment. According to DraftScout.com's pro day numbers, he put together a 4.42 40 yard dash, 10'6" broad jump, and 38" vertical at just under 6'2" and 192 pounds, so together with the success he found this season, he might be the best lottery ticket of the bunch since the new regime seems to place an emphasis on athleticism. Like Amukamara, Melvin will be 29 this year, so I could see him getting a nice payday that's only a short term deal while a prospect is drafted in the first three rounds to develop.

2018 NBA Power Rankings: Post All-Star Edition

With the All-Star Break and trade deadline in the rear view and every team having played between 55 and 61 games, it's time to take a quick look at each team for the last third of the NBA regular season! When organizing this list, teams seemed to group together in a mostly clear way, so I broke this down into tiers with considerations for performances so far and an outlook towards the future. To provide a full summary, I've listed records, how many of those games were at home versus on the road, point differential, and offensive and defensive ratings from NBA.com.

Title Favorites
Those most likely to hold up the Larry O'Brien trophy in June

1. Golden State Warriors (1st in the West) 44-14 (29 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +8.1 (3rd), Offense: 113.7 (1st), Defense: 103.7 (5th)

Kevin Durant's first 50 point game as a Warrior wasn't enough after a couple of close plays at the end of their last game, so they didn't become the first team to have the best record at the All-Star Break for four straight seasons. They also have a lower point differential than we're used to, but who are we kidding? This team is still the heavy favorite to win it all, and their net rating better reflects that, sitting at +10.0 per 100 possessions to lead the league. Injuries to youngsters Pat McCaw and possibly Jordan Bell will lead to further lineup experimentation ahead of the playoffs, and I wonder if staggering Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry will return, at least to a certain extent (something like Durant playing the first nine minutes of the 1st and last nine of the 2nd while Curry sticks with his usual 12 and six minute stints per half) to almost always have an MVP to lean on offensively. The usual unit to start the 2nd and 4th quarters (Shaun Livingston, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, and David West) has a +25.5 net rating rating across 116 minutes, but that's thanks to an incredible 77.5 defensive that might not be sustainable enough to continue overcoming a paltry 103.0 offensive rating that would rank 26th in the league.

2. Houston Rockets (2nd in the West) 44-13 (29 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: + 8.7 (1st), Offense: 113.2 (2nd), Defense: 104.6 (9th)

The sample size of them being 28-1 when Chris Paul, James Harden, and Clint Capela are healthy is getting to be hard to ignore. The surrounding cast has been shifting, and Ryan Anderson coming off the bench since coming back from injury is an interesting wrinkle that not only puts better defenders on the floor but also surprises teams with Harden guarding bigs at times. Buyout additions Joe Johnson and Brandan Wright provide experienced depth, but they had to let go of wing prospect Troy Williams and are now without much point guard depth if Paul or Harden get banged up. A couple big buckets by either of those veterans in the playoffs would make it all worth it, of course.

Beasts of the East
The favorites to be representing the conference in the Finals

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (1st in the East) 34-22 (27 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +0.2 (T-15th), Offense: 110.1 (5th), Defense: 109.8 (28th)

The most difficult team to rank since the performance to date obviously hasn't been impressive, especially since they've won six more games than expected based on point differential per CleaningTheGlass.com, but they completely revamped their team at the trade deadline and of course have LeBron James, who has represented his conference in seven straight Finals and seems rejuvenated by the recent moves. Much like the Warriors being the overall favorites, this is the team to beat in the East until proven otherwise. For what it's worth, they won in Boston and Oklahoma City by a combined 30 points with the new additions in the lineups.

4. Toronto Raptors (2nd in the East) 41-16 (28 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +8.5 (2nd), Offense: 110.7 (4th), Defense: 102.6 (T-3rd)

I really wanted to put them as the Eastern favorites, but they've let me down too many times in the playoffs. Reasons for encouragement include better ball movement on offense, DeMar DeRozan already setting a career high in 3's made as a result, and a 34-11 record since rookie OG Anunoby joined the starting lineup. That last point has led to that unit having a +12.0 net rating in 619 minutes and their eventual second unit of Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam, and Jakob Poeltl now getting up to a ridiculous +31.1 in 172 minutes, their second most used lineup. With no back to backs, benches don't play as much in the playoffs, though, so it's unclear how much of an advantage this will be when it counts.

5. Boston Celtics (3rd in the East) 40-19 (32 H, 27 R)
Point Differential: +3.5 (4th), Offense: 104.4 (21st), Defense: 100.9 (1st)

You may have heard about the offensive collapse since the calendar turned to 2018, and although that is an arbitrary cutoff point, being just 10-9 with the 28th ranked offense at 101.9 during that time is concerning, especially since they only have nine home games the rest of the way. Somewhat surprisingly, playing center Aron Baynes alongside the main four starters of Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford in a more traditional lineup has produced better offensive ratings in addition to stronger defense than going smaller with Marcus Morris next to that group, both before and after the New Year. Overall, the lineup with Baynes has a +13.5 net rating compared to having Horford at center next to Morris for a -10.4 net rating, largely due to the latter lineup having a terrible 75% defensive rebound rate, as expected. The looming question over all of these lineup decisions, though, is if/when Gordon Hayward can return to the rotation in some capacity after that gruesome injury in the opening minutes of the season.

2018 NBA Trade Deadline Week Recap

So much for that "quiet deadline," right? I've listed every move that's happened this week with almost all of them having every detail included by now (12:05 PM PST, just after the deadline has passed), and I'll add any further details plus some thoughts on the deals as the day goes on. All information about players' current salaries is from Eric Pincus at BasketballInsiders.com, with non-guaranteed, team option, and player option seasons color coded.

Milwaukee gets:

Tyler Zeller

$1,709,538

$1,933,941

Brooklyn gets:

Rashad Vaughn

$1,889,040

Milwaukee 2018 2nd round pick (protected 48-60, otherwise becomes 2020 2nd round pick)

Nets GM Sean Marks continues to do solid work with his cheap veteran signings, and now he cashed in one of them to pick up an extra draft pick that will likely last longer with the team than the former 17th overall pick was going to. Across 42 games (33 starts), Zeller averaged a solid 7.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 0.5 blocks in just 16.7 minutes with 54.6%/38.5%/66.7% shooting. I don't completely see the need on the Bucks' end for another limited big man, but they always seem to be looking for a center that can provide some offensive skills without killing them on the other end. Since they declined the fourth year option on Vaughn, they obviously didn't have plans for him in the future after he was also the 17th pick in his draft, so they must be hoping they'll be good enough that the 2nd rounder will be late enough to not be of much consequence.


Charlotte gets:

Willy Hernangomez

$1,435,750

$1,544,951

$1,701,735

New York gets:

Johnny O'Bryant

$1,524,305

Charlotte's 2020 and 2021 2nd round picks

Poor Hernangomez: he goes from out of the Knicks' rotation to a Hornets team that already has Dwight Howard, Cody Zeller, and Frank Kaminsky in established roles up front. Howard and Kaminsky only have one more year left on their deals, though, and the 23 year old Spaniard showed enough as a rookie (11.6/9.3/2.0 averages in 25.8 minutes over his 22 starts) that he can be thought of as a nice backup center option in the future. It would have been nice if things worked out for him to stay in New York with his former Sevilla teammate and buddy Kristaps Porzingis, but getting two 2nds back isn't bad value in return considering he was a 2nd rounder himself and that his defensive limitations have kept him out of favor this season.


Los Angeles signs Williams to 3 year, $24 million extension:

Lou Williams

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

$8,000,000

$8,000,000

With the last year reportedly only containing $1.5 million guaranteed, this was a surprisingly affordable extension for the Clippers since Williams was eligible to sign for upwards of $42 million over four years. I suppose the 31 year old veteran preferred some security in the same city after being on his fifth team in five season, including a year and a half in LA already with the Lakers, over chasing the Mid-Level Exception that is expected to have around an $8.6 million starting salary this summer. That's understandable, so hopefully for his sake the Clips don't end up trading him after the required six month wait now that the high-scoring 6th man is under team control like they did with Blake Griffin.

Chicago gets:

Willie Reed

$1,471,382

Right to swap 2022 2nd round picks

Detroit gets:

Jameer Nelson

$1,429,818

Don't look now, but after all the other times they conceded sweeteners as a throw-in, the Bulls actually made a deal that benefited them in the 2nd round! Nelson, who turns 36 tomorrow and will be on his fourth team since training camp, was never long for the rebuilding squad after being included in last week's trade, and now he gets to be reunited with his Orlando coach, Stan Van Gundy, as needed point guard depth for a team competing for a playoff spot. The cost is clearly low for the Pistons after Reed was also recently acquired as an extra piece in the Griffin trade, and it looks like Chicago is just going to waive him anyway despite his productive per-minute numbers. That's a little disappointing, but it does open up a roster spot to try out younger players while inching the Bulls ever so closer to the salary floor (more on that shortly). 

Los Angeles gets:

Channing Frye

$7,420,912

Isaiah Thomas

$6,261,395

Cleveland's 2018 1st round pick (protected 1-3)

Cleveland gets:

Jordan Clarkson

$11,562,500

$12,500,000

$13,437,500

Larry Nance Jr.

$1,471,382

$2,272,391

I'm still a bit in shock from the first stunner of deadline day as my initial thought from this morning still holds true: I can't believe the Cavs helped the Lakers clear salary space to target LeBron James and another max contract this summer. As things stand now with the 1st round pick sitting at #24 and estimated at a $1.82 million cap hold, LA can hold onto Julius Randle's cap hold as a restricted free agent and have $45.93 million in space. Clearing Clarkson's salary made things simpler to achieve the estimated $65.65 million in room needed for James and a 30% max salary player like Paul George (assuming a $101 million salary cap), though, because they can stretch Luol Deng's remaining salary and simply renounce Randle's rights like the rest of their free agents to reach $67.3 million. That number could increase a little bit if the pick becomes lower due to Cleveland improving after today or if they waive the non-guaranteed contracts of young players like Tyler Ennis, Ivica Zubac, or Thomas Bryant. Perhaps the Cavs are confident enough that James will stay, especially after fortifying their roster today, that it doesn't matter; there was a report two days ago that LA was shifting their focus to the 2019 free agent class after all. If that is the case, this still helps the Lakers get closer to having two max slots that summer as they'll now have over $60 million in space, and stretching Deng that year could offset a new deal for Randle that eats into that. Deng's contract might even be easier to move once it has less money remaining on it, but it's always been likely that it'll have to count as $7,362,000 in dead money over five years or $6,270,000 over three depending on once he's waived.

As for the actual product on the court, it's a shame how far Isaiah Thomas' stock has fallen after his hip injury and poor 15 game run in Cleveland that he's basically just an expiring contract, so hopefully he can rebuild his free agent value a bit with what is likely to be plenty of opportunity in LA. It may hurt his pride to come off the bench, but he could potentially feast on opposing second units, play alongside the 6'6" Lonzo Ball, and have free reign during the times the rookie is banged up like now. If Frye isn't bought out, he can help in their young players' development by providing floor spacing as a big man like I wrote about when Brook Lopez was brought in. For the Cavs, Nance will give them a player who actually brings effort on defense, and they've already seen recently with rookie Cedi Osman how much of an impact that simple difference can make. He can also slide across a couple of positions for some versatility along with Clarkson, and although the latter tends to give it back up on defense, he provides an athletic scoring punch to the back court with some passing. With that being said, it is a little odd that they did this move that required giving up a 1st round pick and taking on future salary considering they had their other big trade coming just a little bit later. Dealing with Isaiah Thomas' constant public comments couldn't have been that bad, could it?

It would be a real shame if someone captioned this pic.twitter.com/nNHImE8vWi

— Rob Perez (@World_Wide_Wob) February 8, 2018

Super Bowl LII

It's been a wild ride through the NFL playoffs to this point, but at the end of the day it's the two #1 seeds left standing for the fourth time in five years. The surprising part, of course, is that Philadelphia has been able to continue their strong play with backup quarterback Nick Foles, but the gamblers in Vegas are apparently believers with so much money coming in on them that the line has dropped by a point and a half. That being said, I'm going to fade the public and stick to my guns with my pick of the Patriots beating the Eagles to claim their third title in four years just like Super Bowl XXXIX.

Last week: 1-1
Season total: 151-114-1

Patriots -4.5 versus Eagles

Folks smarter than me have already written about how New England going with a no-huddle offense could provide a huge advantage and that the Philly defense isn't quite as elite when away from home, so I'll just focus on the matchups that lead me to a fairly confident Pats pick despite the fact that this group never scores in the first quarter of Super Bowls and are 3-4 against the spread in them. Obviously, the quarterbacks aren't on the field at the same time, but five time champion Tom Brady provides a clear edge over the occasionally impressive but inconsistent Foles. Rob Gronkowski officially getting cleared from the concussion protocol means Brady will have all his weapons available, and he could be a dark horse MVP pick at 9/1 odds. Although Malcolm Jenkins is a great strong safety capable of limiting most tight ends, Gronk is arguably the best ever and always a threat to score with 10 touchdowns in 10 full postseason games (not counting the Jaguars game when he suffered a first half concussion or the 2012 game when he re-broke his arm after just 7 snaps).

New Orleans lands Mirotic after all

New Orleans gets:

Nikola Mirotic

$12,500,000

$12,500,000

New Orleans 2018 2nd round pick

Chicago gets:

Omer Asik

$10,595,505

$11,286,516

$11,977,527

Tony Allen

$1,471,382

Jameer Nelson

$1,429,818

New Orleans 2018 1st round pick (protected 1-5, 1-8 in 2019, 1-10 in 2020, 1-9 in 2021, and converts to 2022 and 2023 2nd round picks)
Right to swap 2021 2nd round picks

The full protections on the 1st rounder New Orleans is sending doesn't really matter since it's unlikely that it will fall in the top-5 this year given that it's currently #17 with their 27-23 record, but we now have all the details of this trade after Woj tweeted them this morning. We also now know that recently bought out center Greg Monroe has chosen to sign with the Celtics for more money and better playoff odds, but that doesn't change the fact that the process behind this move, which cleared roster space and room under the Luxury Tax for the Louisiana native, was sound. The Pelicans went from just $706,678 under that threshold to $1,703,383, so they can still pursue other big men options to help fill the void left after DeMarcus Cousins unfortunately tore his Achilles.

A lot of the available minutes will go to Mirotic, of course, as he is a great stretch-four option with Anthony Davis shifting up to center, and picking up his team option for next season shouldn't have been as big of an issue as it was earlier in the week when this trade initially fell apart. Since he felt the chilled market last summer as a restricted free agent and had to settle for the one year deal with the option attached, he gained the ability to reject any trade since the acquiring team would lose his Bird rights. Mirotic rightfully leveraged the situation for the security of the $12.5 million being picked up, and then since he was no longer on a one year contract, his consent was no longer needed. I've seemingly always been higher on his ability than most, but he is certainly justifying that salary now with 16.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game in just 24.9 minutes on 47.4%/42.9%/82.3% shooting.

So much for Blake Griffin being a lifelong Clipper

Detroit gets:

Blake Griffin

$29,727,900

$32,088,932

$34,449,964

$36,810,996

$38,957,028

Willie Reed

$1,471,382

Brice Johnson

$1,331,160

Los Angeles gets:

Tobias Harris

$16,000,000

$14,800,000

Avery Bradley

$8,808,989

Boban Marjanovic

$7,000,000

$7,000,000

Pistons 2018 1st round pick (top-4 protected through 2020 before becoming unprotected)

2019 2nd round pick

Well that escalated quickly. After the #WojBomb dropped at 3:02 PST, Kevin O'Connor had most of the details on the return at 3:12, and then Woj reported that the deal was done at 3:30. I still haven't seen the exact details on which 2019 second is involved since Detroit has their own and a complicated one from either Cleveland, Houston, Orlando, and Portland, but that's a trivial detail in the wake of this shocking trade that came out of nowhere. LA went from selling Griffin on being the first Clipper with his jersey retired to shipping him to Detroit just six months later, so keep that in mind the next time there's fan outrage over a player leaving in free agency.

The Clippers held their free agent meeting with Griffin at Staples. They lowered the lights in the arena and raised his jersey to the rafters as a choir sang. The PA announcer said: "Tonight, we’re honoring a lifelong Clipper."

— Lee Jenkins (@SI_LeeJenkins) January 29, 2018

It's interesting re-reading my quick reaction to his deal in July and how notable it was that he got the 5th year of guaranteed money but not a no trade clause, and now the Clips are taking advantage of that to get out of that large contract. Since he actually took slightly less than his maximum salary this season (likely to help the team stay under the Luxury Tax), his trade bonus will make up for that $215,000 difference to increase his overall cap numbers by $860,000 overall to what I've included above and slightly cushion the blow for him. Taking on all of that long-term money for a constant injury risk who is about to turn 29 and has already missed 16 games this year seems like a shortsighted move by Detroit. That's the problem when your head coach is also the president of basketball operations like Stan Van Gundy is, especially after the team has lost 12 out of 15 since Reggie Jackson's injury and are struggling to fill their brand new downtown arena. 

2017 NFL Conference Championship Picks

I know it's been repeated ad nauseam this week, but who would have thought that when the final four NFL teams square off, three of the starting quarterbacks had just one combined playoff start coming into the season. Although Tom Brady being among the last standing is of course no surprise, no one could see this coming from Nick Foles, Blake Bortles, and Case Keenum. Granted, they are being carried by arguably the three best defenses in the league, but a weird NFL season that saw scoring down across the board will still look weird with either of those NFC quarterbacks leading the charge on Super Bowl Sunday. Spoiler alert: the man on the AFC side will look familiar, though.

Last week: 2-1-1
Season total: 150-113-1

Patriots -7.5 versus Jaguars

Shocking, I know. I probably would have stuck with them at the inflated -9 the line opened at, so seeing it come down after concern over Brady's banged up hand is actually nice to see (although a teaser, possibly with the Over is probably the best bet of weekend). Consider me not worried about the GOAT playing injured with a Super Bowl berth on the line, especially at home against the still shaky Blake Bortles. You could be worried that a weak New England front seven can't contain Leonard Fournette, but they just held the similarly large and explosive Derrick Henry to 28 yards on 12 carries. And although I love Jacksonville's defense, that unit just gave up 42 points to Pittsburgh and allowed 37 (not counting the Bortles pick-six) a few weeks ago to San Francisco. Their few weak spots over the middle are likely to be exploited by Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis. I said at the beginning of the year that the Pats would win their third championship in four years like in '01-'04, and now I'll even double down on that by saying it actually will be in a repeat of SB XXXIX.

Eagles +3 versus Vikings

Minnesota has the amazing narrative of being on the verge of hosting its own Super Bowl after that miraculous ending following years of playoff torture, and there's so much to talk about with that. How there were four lead changes in the final 3:01 to play. How Marcus Williams ended his tremendous rookie season, which included a huge interception earlier in the game, with a total whiff due to concern over pass interference and became the new Rahim Moore with inexplicably no one else behind him. How there was a fleeting moment of thought that Stefon Diggs needed to get out of bounds with a second left in order to try for a field goal before realizing he had nothing but green in front of him to score the winning touchdown. Or how it seemed like that would result in a cover of my -5 pick until after all the chaos they chose to just kneel on the extra point attempt for a push (although I've seen that the line ended at a brutal -5.5 for late Vikings backers after it opened at -3.5). I get it; it would be fun for 'Sota to continue on for a fairy tale ending. But this is real life instead, and they're facing the old adage of being a dome team going outdoors for a night game. More importantly, I think Philadelphia's offensive line is superior overall and will do a better job blocking in a game featuring two fierce defensive fronts. Maybe Jay Ajayi's work through both the air and ground results in another long gain. Sometimes you just have a feeling that letdown is coming for a team, and in this case, I think older brother Mychal Kendricks comes out on top over his younger brother Eric on the Vikes.