NFL Preview 2013

The day is finally here! Football's back, and I've got my season predictions set. Keep in mind, I made these before Thursday's opener; you know, before Peyton Manning was on pace to throw 112 touchdowns.
(All over/under win totals are from sportsbook.com)

1. 49ers
2012 Record: 11-4-1. 2013 Over/Under: 11
Questions:

• What is the offensive potential under Kaepernick for a full season? Including the playoffs, Colin Kaepernick has 10 career starts, and these are his numbers if you extrapolate his numbers over a full season: 3,850 yards passing with 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions; 819 rushing yards with 8 touchdowns. The rushing may decrease as teams are more prepared for him, but with a full off-season as the starter, I think those numbers can increase to over 4,000 yards passing and closer to 30 TDs. Michael Crabtree had emerged as a true #1 target, so his Achilles injury is a major blow, but Kap's chemistry with Vernon Davis noticeably improved in the playoffs and was even better in training camp. I wasn't a fan of recent cast off A.J. Jenkins as a first round pick last year, but I am truly excited about rookie Quinton Patton eventually starting across from the newly acquired Anquan Boldin. A strong rushing attack with Frank Gore and one of the strongest offensive lines in league will still be the foundation of this offense, but the consistent threat of vertical passes down the field could take this offense to the next level.
• Will the defense be bothered by change? Free safety Dashon Goldson was too expensive to bring back in free agency, as was nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga and top reserve lineman Ricky Jean-Francious, but their deep draft class should soften the blow. I'm a big fan of first round pick Eric Reid, whom I had going to them in my first mock draft, stepping in for Goldson immediately, while Tank Carradine and Corey Lemonier are exciting prospects for the future of the front seven. In the mean time, Glen Dorsey was brought in as depth behind in house nose tackle replacement, Ian Williams. However, because they play in their nickel defense so often with a lead, the nose tackle only plays about 40% of the snaps while third cornerback Chris Culliver subs in. Thus, the addition of Nnamdi Asomugah is important as Cully is out for the year with a torn ACL, and Tramaine Brock and Perrish Cox may be pressed into service if the veteran is not up to the task.

Verdict: Over 11 wins; possible 13-3 record. In perhaps the toughest division, if Kap can guide San Francisco to the league's best record with this revamped receiving corps, he could make a strong case for MVP.

2013 NFL Mock Draft V2

I wrote a bit too much about team needs and fit in my first mock draft, so here's a more succinct version that now includes trades. These trades are purely based on gut calls. Happy Draft Day everyone!

1. Chiefs: Eric Fisher, Central Michigan OT: The media buzz is that Fisher is now the pick.

2. Jaguars: Dion Jordan, Oregon DE/OLB: I think the talk of taking one of tackles is a smokescreen, or a trade is still a possibility.

Jordan's versatility makes him appealing to a lot of teams.

NFL Mock Draft 2013

It's been a while since my last post since I started working with Krossover Sports as a game analyst, where we help teams such as Amherst, the D3 national champs. With the NFL Draft fast approaching, it's time to dust off the keyboard. This mock draft is based on how the prospects fit with each team in a way that reflects my personal rankings.

Joeckel may not have as much upside at #1, but he's the safest pick.

1. Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M OT: The new regime in Kansas City has inherited a talented, albeit underachieving, roster that has been supplemented by strong free agent signings and the Alex Smith trade. One of those free agents is left tackle Branden Albert, who was given a one year deal via the Franchise Tag. That gives the Chiefs the option to let Joeckel, the safest prospect in the draft, develop on the right side for a year, or they can trade Albert to a tackle needy team in order to regain an asset.

The Big Game: Harbowl, 2013

After what has seemed like the longest two weeks since the Conference Championship games, Super Bowl Sunday is finally upon us. I avoided writing posts for the previous rounds out of fear of a jynx for my favorite team and my pre-season Super Bowl pick. You see, the last time the 49ers beat the Packers in the playoffs at home, they also went on the road to Atlanta the following week, in the 1998 playoffs. The win over the Packers needed a miracle catch by Terrell Owens on a day in which he struggled with drops (and on a play in which it seemed like virtually anyone else was open instead), and then on the first play from scrimmage against the Falcons, runningback Garrison Hearst's ankle exploded. So you can understand my superstition.

What I'm Watching on Wildcard Weekend

I'm back from a much longer hiatus than I intended, and I'm proud to say that I have made my long awaited return as a graduate of UCSB. I got too bogged down by schoolwork (and the holidays), but there's no way I'm complaining about the school that gave me the greatest 3+ years of my life. Perhaps now you'll even notice the improved writing of a UCSB graduate as I go over some quick thoughts about this weekend's slate of playoff games.

Just kidding; I've always been this good.

HOUSTON over Cincinnati
What I'm watching: How the Texans' secondary assign their coverage. It's well noted how much of an A.J. Green fan I am, so it's no surprise that I believe he could win this game by himself against the likes of Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson. They tend to each stick to their side of the field, so expect a safety to give help to whichever side Green lines up on a play to play basis. Joseph was a shutdown corner in his first year in Houston, but injuries have slowed him down this season. Jackson has been merely solid as a former first round pick out of Alabama while Brandon Harris, a 2011 second round pick, might be over matched in the slot against the slippery Andrew Hawkins. Thus, the soon-to-be Defensive Player of the Year, J.J. Watt, will have to consistently generate pressure in order to help his team win this key matchup.

Prediction: Texans 24, Bengals 20

Houston's secondary will need help from Watt like last year's playoff game.

1st Quarter NFL Power Rankings

Now that every team has played at least four games, it feels like a good time for some Power Rankings a quarter into the season.

1. Falcons 5-0: The defense looks sharp, and Matt Ryan is running the no huddle offense beautifully. If "The Mattural," as Rich Eisen coined him on his podcast, can keep up the heroics in close games, this team will be a tough out in the playoffs.

Ryan's connection to Roddy White on their GW drive was one of the best big time throws I've ever seen.

2012 NFL Football Part 3: AFC

Editing note: Although this is being posted after the season has already started, it is still serving as team opinions from before season and has not been influenced by games already played.

If you missed Part 2.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. Buffalo Bills 10-6

A lot of receivers may be lost on Revis Island, but the best defensive player in the league can't help this offense.