The NBA (and NHL) playoffs start today! As usual, I wanted to take a quick look at each matchup through a lens of their records and net, offensive, and defensive ratings, per NBA.com, before making a pick for each series. I also like to point out certain trends for each playoff team with either lineup data or notable hot streaks that I saw while perusing Basketball Reference. Instead of my random tweets like this that quickly get lost, this is a way to highlight something going on with a player and easily be able to look back on it.
#1 Celtics (64-18, +11.7, #1 O, #2 D) vs. #8 Heat (46-36, +1.8, #21 O, #5 D)
Almost all of these blurbs are going to give a reason for optimism on each side of the matchup...but not in this one to start. I think the Celtics are the clear favorites to win the championship, and although they have had some great battles with the Heat over the years, this year's edition will be missing Jimmy Butler (and likely Terry Rozier) due to injury. Boston coasted to the #1 seed by 14 games in the East and finished with a +11.4 raw point differential that was the fifth-best in NBA history. They are elite on both ends of the floor and can play either small or big with the versatility of their stars. Their main starting lineup of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis had a +11.0 net rating, and subbing in sixth-man Al Horford for Holiday to create a huge lineup had a +16.2 net rating as their third-most used lineup. Any way you slice it, there is a lot to like with this team that I'm picking to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
While I have a hard time thinking that this depleted Miami team can take more than one game off of Boston (and that's only out of respect for their history and what Erik Spoelstra can come up with), I do want to give a shoutout to Nikola Jovic, who's carved out a role after bouncing in and out of the rotation. Once he entered the starting lineup for good over his final 26 games, he only averaged 22.2 minutes but put up 9.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists with 47.6%/39%/81.5% shooting. That's pretty solid on a per-minute basis for a 20 year old in his second year, and overall on the season, his 39.9% shooting and 21.3% defensive rebounding rate as a 6'10" player can compliment Bam Adebayo nicely. It's just more of something to watch for next year, after this likely short series.
Celtics in 5
#2 Knicks (50-32, +4.9, #7 O, #9 D) vs. #7 76ers (47-35, +3.1, T-#13 O, #11 D)
Pretty much everyone will agree that this is about as dangerous of a 7-seed as you'll see since they only ended up in the Play-In due to injuries. They were 29-7 with a +12.4 net rating when both Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey play, after all. The question as always this time of year is how healthy will Embiid be? After mostly keeping their powder dry on the trade front, there isn't a ton of reliable support around the two stars if either should falter.
I loved that New York went all out on the last day of the season to secure the 2nd seed, including keeping starters in for overtime even after knowing the other results. There is the usual issue of Tom Thibodeau playing his guys too many minutes, though, and whether that will catch up to them. Josh Hart played 40+ minutes 22 times since the end of January. Miles McBride played 43+ minutes 10 times in a 16 game span! Aside from that worry, this team is looking good with home court advantage until a potential matchup with Boston and just fits so well together, as evidenced by going 20-3 with OG Anunoby.
#3 Bucks (49-33, +2.6, #6 O, #19 D) vs. #6 Pacers (47-35, +2.9, #2 O, #24 D)
The Bucks have a +16.6 net rating when their four best players, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez, play together, with a 106.9 defensive rating that would be the best in the league. The problem is that they only shared the floor in half of the season (going 27-14 in those games), and Antetokounmpo's availability for this series is in serious doubt due to a soleus strain. And with their transition defense being so poor for large stretches of the season, this is not an ideal matchup against a Pacers team whose speed lives up to its name.
The Pacers' best player also had a big injury this year, and Tyrese Haliburton really hasn't been the same since. After averaging a monstrous 24.2 points and 12.7 assists with 49.6%/40.4%/86.8% shooting and just 2.6 turnovers over his first 32 games, he injured his hamstring in January. After coming back too soon for one game 11 days later, he returned after 11 more days and then played six games on a strict minutes restriction that was basically just to get him enough time to qualify for All-NBA status and the 30% max contract. Even after his minutes climbed back to 30+, his final 29 games only produced averages of 17.4 points and 9.9 assists with 44.7%/32.1%/85.2% shooting with 2.1 turnovers.
Interestingly, the Pascal Siakam trade happened during the missed time, and I wonder how much playing more balanced lineups with better defenders also affected Haliburton. Indiana went from the #1 offensive rating (121.7) and #27 defense (119.6) before the trade to #2 (119.3) and #22 (115.5) in the 41 games afterwards, but if you look at just 888 minutes that the two stars played together, they had a 117.1 offensive rating and 113.3 defensive rating that would've ranked 8th and 12th over the course of the whole season. Between that kind of improvement and the Giannis injury, there's definitely reason for optimism that they can advance.
Pacers in 6
#4 Cavaliers (48-34, +2.5, #16 O, #7 D) vs. #5 Magic (47-35, +2.2, #22 O, #3 D)
Orlando was a really fun story this season as they not only finished above .500 for only the second time since the Dwight Howard era (and the first since 2019), but they were within a game of earning home court advantage. It's almost more impressive when you consider that a young team like this is doing it on the back of an elite defense, and they have so much size across positions that they can throw out a variety of lineups. Although they shuffled around a lot, the five with the most minutes together (Jalen Suggs, Gary Harris, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr.) went 14-3 as a starting unit and had a +12.5 net rating in 22 games overall. That group's 114.7 offensive rating is still below average, though, and I worry that they could get tight in their first appearance on the big stage.
Cleveland had an odd season that started 18-15 with each member of their core four missing some time, then had a 17-1 stretch that began when Evan Mobley and Darius Garland were out, and finished 13-18 with more time missed, particularly from Donovan Mitchell. There's likely a lot of noise there, but one takeaway is that they were at their best when running the offense through Mitchell in more of a spread system, so the development of Mobley's outside shot could be huge for the long-term viability of his front-court pairing with Jarrett Allen. Through Mobley's first 23 games, he only attempted 11 threes and made just 2, but over his final 27 games, that jumped up to 20 makes on 48 attempts (41.7%).
If that can hold up at all, it could go a long way against this tough Orlando defense. I hate that Cleveland tanked the last game of the season to ensure they avoided a potential Philly matchup and get this young opponent instead, but their playoff experience should win out here.
Cavs in 6
#1 Thunder (57-25, +7.3, #3 O, #4 D) vs. #8 Pelicans (49-33, +4.6, #11 O, #6 D)
Zion Williamson getting injured in the Play-In takes away a good bit of excitement in this one, even if it is unfortunately nothing new for him or this team. He, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum, aka the Pelicans' three highest-paid players, only played 43 games together, and they actually had a -3.2 net rating when sharing the floor despite going 27-16 in those contests. Ingram just came back from injury himself on the last day of the season after missing 12 games, but they got blown out at home by the Lakers to fall out of the top-six. His absence contributed to them stumbling a bit down the stretch with a 7-7 record, and with the vibes feeling off around them, it wouldn't be shocking if they break up this core if they flame out quickly, especially since Ingram will be heading into the last year of his contract.
This New Orleans squad still has a lot of talent to potentially take a game or two off of such a young OKC team, though, and I'm excited to see how the West's surprising top seed comes out in basically the first taste of the postseason for almost the whole team. On paper they are absolutely a title contender with how well they can space the floor around an MVP contender in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the amount of chaos they can create on a defense anchored by likely ROY runner up, Chet Holmgren. The fact that Holmgren and rising star Jalen Williams were only drafted in 2022 and are already this good is scary going forward, but that lack of experience is probably their biggest weakness. They shouldn't have too much of a problem overcoming that in this series, particularly with no Williamson, but it could be an issue against more battle-tested teams later.
Thunder in 6
#2 Nuggets (57-25, +5.5, #5 O, #8 D) vs. #7 Lakers (47-35, +0.6, #15 O, #17 D)
While being heavily involved in trade rumors and yanked in and out of the lineup, D'Angelo Russell made the most of being re-inserted into the starting group by putting up 39 points and 8 assists on January 13th and never looked back. Over the final 41 games, he averaged 20.8 points on 45%/43%/87.5% shooting with 6.6 assists against just 2.2 turnovers. Similarly, Rui Hachimura also finished strong with a 17 point average on a scintillating 58%/46.2%/71.7% shooting line over the final 29 games, with the team going 20-9 down the stretch once Darvin Ham finally settled on a steady lineup. Overall, putting those two next to LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Anthony Davis (you know, their most obvious lineup with their five best players) resulted in a starting five that went 18-6.
That is a really good record...but it still doesn't match the reigning champs going 21-6 after the All-Star Break, which was tied with Boston for the best in the league. And when you talk about the best starting lineups that fit so well together, Denver's can match anybody as their core returned from last year to go 37-11 with a +13.6 net rating when active. Their 125.9 offensive rating with that group would lead the league while the 112.3 defensive rating matches their season average that is also top-10. Although last year's Western Conference Finals between these clubs was "The Most Competitive Sweep in History," I don't have any doubts that this series will be almost if not just as fast.
Nuggets in 5
#3 Timberwolves (56-26, +6.3, #17 O, #1 D) vs. #6 Suns (49-33, +3.1, #10 O, T-#12 D)
The Timberwolves were 14-6 when Karl-Anthony Towns missed time, which is slightly better than their 42-20 record with him, so they might actually be okay if he's not fully back from the meniscus injury that held him out until the second to last game of the season. The lineups with Naz Reid in his place next to Rudy Gobert had a 30.2% offensive rebounding rate, which would be 6th in the league over the whole season (they were only 21st overall at 27.5%). The Suns' 71.4% defensive rebounding rate only ranked 20th, so that could be a key factor in this series.
The Suns' new Big 3 of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal played exactly half the season together, going 26-15. Their record in games that all 3 finished, though? 25-12, which is an 82-game pace of 55.41 wins. The starting five of those three with Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic finished with a +11.1 net rating and would've led the league with both a 124.5 offensive rating and 75.9% defensive rebounding rate that is a surprisingly high compared to their total numbers. Phoenix went 3-0 against Minnesota this season, including a blowout win on the last day to avoid the Play-In and set up this matchup, so I like them upsetting the higher seed here.
Suns in 6
#4 Clippers (51-31, +3.4, #4 O, #16 D) vs. #5 Mavericks (50-32, +2.1, #8 O, #18 D)
It was kind of amazing how L.A. lost their first five games with James Harden after the big trade and then immediately went on a 31-8 run once they moved Russell Westbrook to the bench. However, they only finished 17-16 after that (almost as soon as I tweeted about it, coincidentally enough). Injuries played a part in it, but even their main starting lineup finished 9-8 with a +2.3 net rating down the stretch after starting 19-4 with a +15.8 net rating during hot streak. Now Kawhi Leonard is questionable to start the playoffs after a knee injury kept him out of the last eight games of the season.
Conversely, Dallas hit their stride with their trade acquisitions and have been on a tear ever since, going 21-8 after PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford made their debuts before resting starters on the last day of the season. I was a bit harsh on the long-term cost of the trades, but it's definitely worked in the short-term with the starting lineup of those two and Derrick Jones Jr. next to the star back court of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving going 15-1. That group finished with a +15.5 net rating in 18 games together overall behind a surprisingly stout 99.7 defensive rating that obviously would've led the league. They may not have home court, but they are both the hotter and healthier team heading into the third edition of this playoff matchup in the last five years.
Mavs in 7
Bonus: A look at the future
The Spurs didn't finish anywhere close to the playoffs, but I had to put the spotlight on the soon to be ROY, Victor Wembanyama. There are some fascinating splits for both him and the lineups around him, and the underlying signs indicate that this young will be ready to compete sooner than you might think. That's especially true when you consider how much draft capital they have to throw into potential trades and likely over $20 million in cap space this summer (depending on where they land in the lottery and if they get Toronto's top-6 protected pick).
First, they began the season in full "rebuilding team that is experimenting" mode by surprisingly starting second-year forward Jeremy Sochan at point guard next to Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson while Wembanyama played power forward next to Zach Collins. What wasn't surprising was the 3-17 start as a result of those type of configurations before finally benching Collins to play Wemby at center. To that point, the #1 pick was averaging 18.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.6 blocks in 30.1 minutes with 43.2%/26.5%/81.7% in those cramped lineups.
As you'd expected with more room to operate, Wembanyama's efficiency jumped up to a 47.9%/34%/73.5% shooting line for averages of 18.9, 11.1, 3.7, 1, and 4.1 despite dipping to only 28 minutes over his next 10 games. However, the team only went 2-8 in them, along with three other losses that he had to sit out. On Wemby's 20th birthday, January 4th, Gregg Popovich gave him the gift of starting the team's best point guard, Tre Jones, in a nationally televised game against the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo, whom I lightly included in a comparison last year. They lost a thriller that night to drop to 5-29 with a league-worst -11.4 net rating, but from there they went 17-31 with a -2.7 net rating that was 21st in the league. And check out the per game averages from that game on:
Their new, main starting lineup of Jones, Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Sochan, and Wembanyama actually had a respectable +3.3 net rating in 404 minutes on the back of a 110.5 defensive rating that would've ranked 2nd in the league for the season. Sub out Champagnie for previous starter turned Sixth Man, Johnson, and that net rating jumps to +20.8, albeit in only 142 minutes and with an unsustainable 96.6 defensive rating. The main takeaway is that Wembanyama, who led the league in blocks as a rookie, is already capable of anchoring a great defense.
If you narrow it to 3 player lineups, the trio of Jones, Vassell, and Wembanyama had a +9 net rating in the sizable sample size of 806 minutes for the season. Vassell is about to start a 5 year, $135 million extension this year as he turns 23, but Jones will be on an expiring contract after their former 2nd rounder was only given a two year, $19 million deal in free agency last year. It seems clear that the Spurs don't view the latter as a core piece, so all eyes will be on what they do at the position this summer. There have been rumors that they could offer the two Hawks 1st rounders that they own back to Atlanta for a return of Dejounte Murray or even Trae Young. Both of the star guards (who happen to share a September 19th birthday and will turn 28 and 26, respectively) have of course been linked to the Lakers as Klutch Sports clients and seem destined to be split up in any case. San Antonio will surely be linked to others, and whoever they eventually land will have the privilege of setting up a future MVP.
The Spurs started playing a real lineup (Tre Jones at PG) on 1/4, which was also Victor Wembanyama's 20th bday. Over his final 42 games:
— Dave Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) April 16, 2024
23.2 points, 11 rebs, 4.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and *3.9* blocks with 47.7%/34.3%/80.2% shooting
in only 29.8 minutes!https://t.co/OGlaplu6QX pic.twitter.com/6bfen3R0Dj
I also want to put a bow on Jalen Green's final splits down the stretch for the up-and-coming Rockets after pointing out how he always seems to finish the season strong. I first noticed it in his rookie season that after he turned 20 on February 9th, he averaged 21.4 points on 47.7%/40%/73.4% shooting over the final 28 games while launching 7.9 threes per game. The splits weren't as dramatic in his second season, but after missing some time at the end of January and then again towards the end of February (with a 41 point game the day before his birthday mixed in there), 24.1 points and 3.9 assists with a 43.3%/34.1%/78.4% slash line over the final 19 games stood out.
Green didn't get going until a few games after the All-Star Break this time, but once he finally got new coach Ime Udoka to trust him with more minutes consistently, things really took off. Over the final 24 games, he averaged 24.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.7 turnovers on 45.4%/37.3%/80.8% shooting while taking 9.5 threes per game. They finished 16-8, and that was even with leading scorer Alperen Sengun getting injured in the fifth game of this stretch. That was certainly aided by an 11 game winning streak against a mostly easy schedule (with Green putting up 30.2 PPG during it), but there is a lot of talent on this young roster, headlined by the former #2 pick who is eligible for a rookie extension this summer.
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