2017 NFL Week 4 Picks

"What is...overthinking it, Alex?"

I had GB in my picks pool all week, but having both tackles out again along with Mike Daniels and Davon House makes me think Chi covers +7.5 https://t.co/4jPmW2kFWG

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) September 29, 2017

I'm going to keep it simple with the rest of these.
Last week: 9-7
Season total: 25-22

Saints -2.5 "at" Dolphins (in London)

I don't think either defense is that good, so give me the Drew Brees offense over Jay Cutler's, especially coming off an impressive road win.

Titans -1.5 at Texans

I continue to think Tennessee is the most well-rounded team in their division, and although Houston impressed on the road last week, they've yet to put together an overall complete game.

Bengals -3.5 at Browns

After another brutal loss, this is where Cincy gets their first win after improving every so slightly each week. As expected, OC Bill Lazor stayed committed to his best running back Joe Mixon and fed A.J. Green, whom Cleveland has no one to cover, so I'm looking for a breakout game here.

Vikings -2.5 versus Lions

After being scared off by Case Keenum's first start that was on the road, he inspired a lot more confidence at home last week, and I'm comfortable going with Minnesota's defense and running game anyway.

Digesting the Thunder's Melo Theft

Oklahoma City gets:

Carmelo Anthony

$26,243,760

$27,928,140

New York gets:

Enes Kanter

$17,884,176

$18,622,514

Doug McDermott

$3,294,994

Bulls 2018 2nd

This NBA offseason has been full of stunners, and now that the trade was made official today, Carmelo Anthony choosing to waive his no-trade clause and trade kicker to move to Oklahoma City is right up there among them. And before you weep for Enes Kanter being traded away from a place he has been very outspoken, remember that the trade kicker he got when signing an offer sheet with Portland bumps his salary this year to $20,566,802 and he has a home in New York. Now let's look at this deal from each team's perspective.

The Knicks were obviously hoping for more at the beginning of this saga, but considering that their hands were tied by Anthony's ability to veto deals, this is better than nothing to help them towards a proper rebuild around Kristaps Porzingis. Although they weren't able to pick up an extra 1st round pick, Chicago's 2nd this year should be in the 30's as that team also rebuilds, and it helps make up for the fact that they don't control their own 2nd due to a pick swap. Kanter's bonus means that they're only saving just under $2.4 million this season, but even in the likely event that he picks up his option for next season (which is not affected by trade) they have gained $9.3 million in flexibility for that year. Perhaps they extend McDermott in the next few weeks or retain him in restricted free agency after seeing what they have in him, but the point is that they did well not to take on any long contracts like the Ryan Anderson one Houston was offering. The big man rotation next to and behind Porzingis is a bit crowded with Willy Hernangomez and Joakim Noah already in the fold, but Kanter can put up big scoring and rebounding numbers while his defense, or lack thereof, should help them tank. The same will likely be said about McDermott since he'll have plenty of opportunities at small forward on this team, and maybe more offensive freedom will help him show why he was a highly regarded, albeit overrated due to his lack of defensive tools, prospect coming out of college. They are both just 25 years old, so there is a chance this trade can be remembered for more than just helping the team achieve another high spot in the lottery.

This will take some getting used to.

2017 NFL Week 3 Picks

Last week got off to a good start on Sunday with Cam Newton missing Christian McCaffrey in the end zone leading to my only pick that didn't cover in the morning games, but my teams after that didn't perform up to expectations with the Packers fielding a MASH unit and the Giants struggling in all sorts of ways. Still, a winning week is a step in the right direction, and I'm planning on building on that here.

Last week: 10-6
Season total: 16-15

I had the 49ers +2.5 last night (I swear, I can even show a screenshot of my pick'em pool!) in what had to be the wildest Thursday Night Football game ever before the phantom offensive pass interference call stopped a comeback for the ages. San Francisco's defense looked gassed on just four days of rest after being on the field for 82 plays the previous game, but credit is due to Jared Goff for continuing his second year leap with an impressive performance back in his native Bay Area. Like I wrote before, the situation he's in now is basically a complete 180 from last season with an actual coaching staff, offensive line, and receivers.

Ravens -4.5 "at" Jaguars (in London)

An already decimated offensive line losing All-Pro guard Marshall Yanda is a concern for Baltimore. So is run-stuffing defensive lineman Brandon Williams being out this week. Starting running back Terrance West is questionable, as well. And you know what? You still can't convince me to back Blake Bortles against this ferocious defense in a game away from home, even if Jacksonville has been playing across the pond the last couple of years.

I have a feeling we'll be seeing more Ravens defenders with the ball in their hands.

2017 NFL Week 2 Picks

It wasn't a great start for my picks, and I was reminded a bit of why last season I switched to only posting my preferred plays rather than the full slate. After all, I wouldn't be betting each and every game if I was actually in Vegas since some games are clear stay-aways. I am participating in a picks pool on CBSSports.com, though, so for now, I'll continue to write a bit about why I made each pick according to the lines listed there rather than go in depth on a few.

Went with Cincy -4.5 in my picks pool due in large part to all that Houston's missing. Watson's likely to be running for his life again #TNF https://t.co/9moivMRHpm

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) September 15, 2017

I still can't believe Deshaun Watson ran for a 49 yard score on 3rd and freaking 15 one play removed from getting rocked from Geno Atkins. Tyler Eifert stepping out of bounds before his touchdown hurt, and now with the offense's struggles overall have leading to Bill Lazor now taking over as offensive coordinator, we'll see what this 0-2 team is really made of.

Chiefs -4.5 versus Eagles

I should have remembered how good Andy Reid is with extra time to prepare before laying the points against him last week, and even if this only 10 days rest, I like his chances against his old team back home in Arrowhead. The loss of star safety Eric Berry is devastating, but I think Kansas City can get enough of a pass rush to keep Carson Wentz from improving on his deep passes.

Titans -1.5 at Jaguars

Jacksonville's defense looked even better than I had hoped, which allowed them to take the ball out of Blake Bortles' hands and just feed Leonard Fournette. Facing a much better Tennessee offensive line, I think this will be a much more competitive game and will stick to my guns with the better quarterback here, Marcus Mariota.

2017 NFL Over/Under Picks: NFC, plus Week 1 Picks

Continuing on the first half of my Over/Under picks, I'm including my take on how each NFC team will do this season, how they finished last year, and what their expected win total was based on their points scored and allowed. I have brief picks for this opening weekend at the end, so let the games begin!

Seahawks over 10.5 wins
Last year: 10-5-1. Expected: 9.8-6.2

Although the offensive line is always a cause for concern, Seattle looks poised to make another run at the Super Bowl thanks to an unbelievable defense and a healthy Russell Wilson. Keeping their star quarterback upright will be a challenge now that former basketball player turned tight end turned left tackle tore his ACL and last year's third round pick, Rees Odhiambo, is moving back to his college position after competing for the left guard spot a season ago. Counting on last year's first round pick Germain Ifedi kicking back out to right tackle after failing at guard is also a concern, so Wilson will likely have to rely once more on his mobility that was limited from the start of the season last year due to ankle and knee issues. When he is able to make throws, he could put up the best numbers of his career since Doug Baldwin has proven to be a #1 receiver, Jimmy Graham came back from his torn patellar tendon amazingly well, and Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson have shown flashes of dynamic playmaking ability when healthy. With running back Chris Carson looking like a seventh round find, Thomas Rawls seemingly fully recovered from his 2015 fractured ankle, and C.J. Prosise a strong third down option, they have options in the backfield in case free agent flier Eddie Lacy can't hit his weight requirements. 

There could be a lot of celebrations this year.

Even if the offensive line limits the amount of points they put up, there shouldn't be many required thanks to what is likely the best defense in the league, especially with the recent trade for defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson making up for top pick Malik McDowell missing time due to a car accident. That could make their pass rush unstoppable when they go into the nickel and shift Michael Bennett inside to bookend Cliff Avril with Frank Clark, who had 10 sacks last year as the third defensive end. Combine that with arguably the best pair of off-ball linebackers, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, shutting down the run and a full year of Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor at safety, and it's hard to spot any weaknesses to exploit. The corner depth behind Richard Sherman could be the target with DeShawn Shead still recovering from a torn ACL, but they must feel comfortable with former nickelback Jeremy Lane and third round pick Shaq Griffin since they traded away Tramaine Brock a couple weeks after signing him.

Packers over 10 wins
Last year: 10-6. Expected: 9-7

Green Bay has made the playoffs eight straight years, have averaged just five losses during that sizable sample, and have a certain quarterback named Aaron Rodgers, whom I would consider the favorite for MVP every year, so I'm comfortable taking the Over. Replacing the occasionally spectacular Jared Cook with the more reliable Martellus Bennett at tight end and having Ty Montgomery at running back for the full season should make the offense more consistent without having to rely on Rodgers being a magician. Jordy Nelson remains an elite receiver and is another year removed from his torn ACL, Davante Adams broke out for 12 touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards, and Randall Cobb is in line for a bounce back year after averaging six catches for sixty-five yards the first six games before a hamstring injury limited him the rest of the season.

The improvement of a defense that got torched through the air is what will determine their playoff success, and they used their first two draft picks on cornerback Kevin King and safety Josh Jones, who are both exceptional athletes. Since they have one of the best pairs of safeties in the league, the latter will likely fill the versatile role of the departed Micah Hyde while the former could be a starter opposite prodigal son Davon House. Third year corners Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins should still be in the mix after struggling with injuries and consistency last year, but the most important thing will likely be a pass rush that is trying to replace Julius Peppers with late addition Ahmad Brooks in sub-packages. Mike Daniels provides penetration inside, but they'll need starters Clay Matthews and Nick Perry to be at their best in order to generate pressure off the edge and get off the field.

2017 NFL Over/Under Picks: AFC

Labor Day has come and gone, so it is officially time for the NFL season to start. That means in addition to cheering for your teams both real and fantasy, it's time for some fun making picks thanks to the good folks in Vegas! I was 19-13 in predictions for teams' win totals last year before finishing 60-44-3 against the spread, so I'm going to start with those again. Along with my picks, I'm including last year's record and Pro Football Reference's Expected W-L records based on points scored and allowed. First up, the AFC with the defending champs.

Patriots over 12.5 wins
Last year: 14-2. Expected: 12.7-3.3

There's a reason they are the heavy favorites to repeat, and after going 14-2 last year despite Tom Brady's bogus 4 game suspension, I have no reason to doubt them. Yes, Julian Edelman tearing his ACL is a painful blow as Brady's most trusted target, but Rob Gronkowski is now fully healthy with Brandin Cooks added to the fold to lift the lid off defenses and Chris Hogan a year into the system. Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead should more than make up for the loss of LeGarrette Blount as part of a deep running back committee with Dion Lewis and James White behind a great offensive line, and unlike other teams who would fall well short of expectations should anything befall their quarterback, New England can count on Jimmy Garoppolo as a backup. This total is so high that I probably wouldn't bet it, but for the sake of this post, I'm comfortable taking the Over.

Defensively, the surprising choice to splurge on cornerback Stephon Gilmore rather than give Malcolm Butler a new contract or re-sign the reliable Logan Ryan does provide a short term upgrade in a good secondary. They'll need fourth round rookie Deatrich Wise and sneaky late addition Cassius Marsh to help out last year's fourth round find Trey Flowers in providing a pass rush for those DBs, but otherwise the front seven is a stout unit. They finished 3rd in rushing yards allowed and 5th in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA, so whether or not they need to blitz in order to get pressure is really the only question about this team overall. In the end, I think history repeats itself, and the most talented team and best coach go back-to-back to make it 3 out 4 like they did in 2001, 2003, and 2004.

Look for these two to connect on the most TDs in the league.

Steelers over 10.5 wins
Last year: 11-5. Expected: 9.9-6.1

The Killer B's are back together now that Martavis Bryant was officially reinstated to provide another threat alongside Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Ben Roethlisberger, and with a top-notch line in front of them, this offense will be devastating as long as all of them are on the field. That is always the concern given the injury history of Big Ben and Bell, while suspensions tend to loom around the latter and Bryant, as well. Right now, though, it looks like all systems go for this team to put up points early and often.

Playing with a lead will help this defense that came alive after their Week 8 bye thanks in large part to blitzing 43% of the time in the second half of the season. Former first round pick Bud Dupree erupted for 4.5 sacks over the last four weeks of the season after being activated off of IR in Week 11, and they picked T.J. Watt in this year's first round to bookend him as an edge rusher. The defensive line held their own against the run, so if blitzers can tee off in obvious passing situations, opponents will have a tough time attacking a secondary that has some potential with Joe Haden recently joining Artie Burns at corner. Given that there might have been a little luck in going 5-2 in one-score games last year to outperform their expected record, the Over might be a bit close, but I think they'll hit it based on their track record.