Monday, June 21, 2021

Early Draft Talk: the Walker/Horford Trade and What's at Stake in the NBA Lottery

 Thunder receive:
Player20-2121-2222-23
Kemba Walker$34,379,100$36,016,200$37,653,300
#16 pick
2025 2nd round pick (better of Celtics' or Grizzlies')


Celtics receive:
Player20-2121-2222-2323-24
Al Horford$27,500,000$27,000,000$26,500,000
Moses Brown$1,250,000$1,701,593$1,846,738$1,997,718
2023 2nd round pick (least favorable of Thunder's, Wizards', or the better of Mavericks' or Heat's)

That was quick. Just over two weeks after transitioning from coaching to the front office, Brad Stevens already made his first move, and it is a big one. Walker going from the All-Star who turned around the young Boston team that underachieved with Kyrie Irving in 2019 to needing a mid-1st round pick attached to shed his salary now is a pretty stunning turnaround. Knee issues have limited the 31 year old to playing in just 119 of 166 possible games, though, so the $73.7 million due to him over the next two seasons wasn't too appealing to Boston, especially as Jayson Tatum's max contract kicks in this summer. Hence the return of Horford, who was a valuable Celtic both on the floor and in the locker room from 2016 to 2019 and only has $41.5 million guaranteed on his contract. The 2022-23 season could add another $5 million in guarantees if the team makes the Finals next season or become fully guaranteed if they win it, which of course would be worth it.

With these savings, Boston is now about $9.4 million under the luxury tax threshold as they look to re-sign Evan Fournier without going too deep into it, and if they do retain him on the wing, they will have some interesting lineup choices to pick from. Barring the addition of a new point guard, it would seem that Marcus Smart, who is a year away from free agency himself, would be the nominal starter at that position with the offense running through Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Fournier could be a high end sixth man or start as a third wing with the other two both capable of battling against power forwards, and Horford could play center like he is best suited for at this point of his career. There is also the possibility to put Horford at power forward next to exciting young center Robert Williams or even 7'2" prospect Brown if they really want to play big or if Fournier signs elsewhere. The fact that this big of a move was made before hiring a new coach and knowing a preference in style might be the most surprising aspect of this. In some ways, it is the type of move Stevens' predecessor Danny Ainge would make by not being afraid to deal a big name to do what he thinks is best for the team, but the draft compensation here is a tough pill to swallow.