Saturday, December 30, 2023

2023-24 NBA Trade Tracker

Well that was unexpected! The NBA Trade Deadline isn't until February 8th, but the Raptors and Knicks kicked off trade season early to prompt the start of my usual transaction tracker. This will be a one stop shop for every in-season NBA trade, when it went down, who first reported it (as far as I know), and the contracts/picks involved to look back on like last season's. The format will be like the offseason tracker where I add each new deal to the top to make it easy to see any updates, and the color code as usual is player option, team option, and not fully guaranteed along with estimates. Otherwise, these cap numbers are courtesy of Keith Smith at Spotrac.com.

2/9 update: Now that yesterday's deadline is firmly in the rearview, I went back and added more details that have emerged for each deal. It probably makes the most sense to start with trades at the bottom and work up chronologically, but as always, Command + F is a friend to find specific players. To make things easier, here is a summary of what each team did over the past six weeks, listed in order of championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Celtics +265
Traded for: Xavier Tillman, Jaden Springer, and one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)
Traded away: Lamar Stevens, Dalano Banton, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Nuggets +425
Traded for: Cash considerations
Traded away: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Clippers +550
Traded for: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)
Traded away: Cash considerations

Bucks +600
Traded for: Patrick Beverley and the draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)
Traded away: Cam Payne, Robin Lopez, a 2nd round pick, and cash considerations

Suns +1,200
Traded for: Royce O'Neale and David Roddy
Traded away: Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, Chimezie Metu, Jordan Goodwin, three 2nd round picks, and one 1st round draft swap that was already Horcruxed.

76ers +1,800
Traded for: Buddy Hield, Cam Payne, and three 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected)
Traded away: Marcus Morris, Furkan Korkmaz, Danuel House, Patrick Beverley, Jaden Springer, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Knicks +2,000
Traded for: OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, and Precious Achiuwa
Traded away: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Ryan Arcidiacono, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations
Waived: DaQuan Jeffries

Timberwolves +2,000
Traded for:
Traded away:

Thunder +2,200
Traded for: Monte Morris
Traded away: Shake Milton, Troy Brown, and a 2nd round pick

Lakers +2,800
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Cavaliers +3,500
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Heat +3,500
Traded for: Terry Rozier
Traded away: Kyle Lowry and a 1st round pick

Mavericks +4,000
Traded for: PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, and two 2nd round picks
Traded away: Grant Williams, Richaun Holmes, Seth Curry, one 1st round pick, and one 1st round pick swap

Kings +5,000
Traded for: Robin Lopez and cash considerations
Traded away: Draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)
Waived: Robin Lopez

Pelicans +6,000
Traded for: Cash considerations
Traded away: Kira Lewis and one 2nd round pick

Warriors +7,000
Traded for: one 2nd round pick
Traded away: Cory Joseph, one 2nd round pick (top-55 protected), and cash consideration

Pacers +11,000
Traded for: Pascal Siakam, Doug McDermott, Furkan Korkmaz, Cory Joseph, four 2nd round picks (though one is top-55 protected), and cash considerations
Traded away: Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield, Jordan Nwora, three 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick
Waived: James Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, and Cory Joseph

Magic +25,000
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Hawks +40,000
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Jazz +60,000
Traded for: Otto Porter Jr, Kira Lewis, Kevin Knox, one 1st round pick, one 2nd round pick, and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)
Traded away: Simone Fontecchio, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji
Waived: Kevin Knox

Bulls +60,000
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Rockets +60,000
Traded for: Steven Adams
Traded away: Victor Oladipo and three 2nd round picks

Nets +100,000
Traded for: Dennis Sschroder, Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin, Thaddeus Young, and three 2nd round picks
Traded away: Royce O'Neale and Spencer Dinwiddie
Waived: Harry Giles, Jordan Goodwin, and Thaddeus Young

Raptors +100,000
Traded for: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji, Jordan Nwora, Spencer Dinwiddie, two 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick
Traded away: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Dennis Schroder, Precious Achiuwa, Otto Porter Jr, Thaddeus Young, and Malachi Flynn
Waived: Spencer Dinwiddie and Christian Koloko

Grizzlies +100,000
Traded for: Yuta Watanabe, Lamar Stevens, Chimezie Metu, Victor Oladipo, one 1st round pick swap (that was already Horcruxed), and five 2nd round picks
Traded away: Xavier Tillman, David Roddy, Steven Adams
Waived: Chimezie Metu and Victor Oladipo

Trail Blazers +100,000
Traded for: Dalano Banton and cash considerations
Traded away: one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)

Spurs +100,000
Traded for: Marcus Morris (likely to be waived), one 2nd round pick, and cash considerations
Traded away: Doug McDermott

Wizards +100,000
Traded for: Marvin Bagley III, Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Livers, one 1st round pick, and two 2nd round picks
Traded away: Daniel Gafford, Danilo Gallinari, and Mike Muscala

Hornets +100,000
Traded for: Grant Williams, Kyle Lowry (likely buyout), Tre Mann, Seth Curry, Vasilije Micic, Davis Bertans, two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks
Traded away: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, and two 2nd round picks
Waived: James Bouknight, Ish Smith, and Frank Ntilikina

Pistons +100,000
Traded for: Simone Fontecchio, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Shake Milton, Troy Brown, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Malachi Flynn, Ryan Arcidiacono, Danuel House, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations
Traded away: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Monte Morris, Mavin Bagley III, Isaiah Livers, Kevin Knox, four 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected), and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)
Waived: Joe Harris, Killian Hayes, Danilo Gallinari, Danuel House, and Ryan Arcidiacono

Golden State buys a pick and trims their tax bill (Shams with the news, Tony East the details 2/8)

Warriors receive:
2024 2nd round pick: Worst of Bucks, Cavaliers, or Pelicans

Pacers receive:
Cory Joseph$2,019,706
2025 Hornets 2nd round pick: top-55 protected 
Cash considerations

Since Second Apron teams like the Warriors won't be able to just buy 2nd round picks anymore going forward (or send cash in deals in general as mentioned below), this is a sneaky good move to spend now now to get the worst of the Pacers' four 2nd rounders while also trimming their luxury tax bill by about $13.5 million due to the repeater penalty. Now they have an open roster spot to convert my guy Lester Quinones to a regular contract by the end of the seasonideally on a multi-year deal, which will eat into those savings but not significantly. Indy had an open roster spot and received more than what's left on Joseph's salary (reportedly $5.8 million) for one of their extra picks, and now they're promptly waiving the veteran guard along with Korkmaz from their earlier trade.

Clippers buy draft rights while they can (Law Murray, 2/8)

Clippers receive:
Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Nuggets receive:
Cash considerations

Not exactly a blockbuster, but as a Second Apron team, the Clips are about to be unable to send out cash in trades. It was a use or lose it scenario, so they are taking a flier on a 23 year old French big man in Kamagate, who is currently playing in Italy.

Boston adds Springer and sheds Banton (Woj, 2/8)

Celtics receive:
Jaden Springer$2,226,240$4,018,363
2027 2nd round pick: top-55 protected

Trail Blazers receive:
Dalano Banton$2,019,706$2,196,970
Cash considerations

76ers receive:
2024 2nd round pick: More favorable of Bulls or Pelicans

These are two separate trades, but I'm just lumping them together here since they're related for Boston (and the Celtics PR release did the same). Springer is likely going into the Grant Williams Trade Exception that they wouldn't be able to use in the offseason as a Second Apron team, and he takes Banton's roster spot as a young wing with some upside who likely won't play much. Keith Pompey provided the details above for the real 2nd that they sent to Philly for Springer (compared to the fake one from Portland for Banton), so they have at least some hope that the #28 pick in 2021 can tap into his upside. He's recently gotten a showcase of minutes with all of the 76ers' injuries, and while he hasn't shot it well, there have been flashes of defensive tenacity for the 21 year old. 

This leaves Philadelphia with only Joel Embiid and Paul Reed under contract for next season, with the latter's not even guaranteed unless they win a playoff series. Tyrese Maxey's relatively small cap hold will of course still be on the books along with possibly De'Anthony Melton's, but they will have enough room to sign a max contract and more.

Thursday, December 28, 2023

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 13-16 2023

It's here: fantasy football championship week! Since my last post, rookies Tank Dell and Keaton Mitchell suffered unfortunate injuries, but Rachaad White and Trey McBride have continued getting the type of awesome usage that is the point of this series. Once again, I did not mean to have to lump in this many weeks for one post, but the holiday season got in the way. That means there's a lot to talk about, so I'll just get to it with the regular note that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.
  • When talking about ideal workloads, the conversation pretty much starts with Christian McCaffrey. He just played 100% of the 49ers snaps for the third time this year while also seeing 10 targets for a 22.73% target share that would make a lot of wide receivers blush. Overall on the season he's played 82.78% of the snaps with a 18.62% target share while also getting 74.78% of the running back carries. The combination of receiving and goal line usage in Kyle Shanahan's creative scheme has led to averaging 25.21 PPR points, which is not only the highest among all players but almost 5 points higher than the next RB. The fantasy MVP should have a solid shot of winning the actual NFL award considering his 1,932 yards from scrimmage are 276 more than anyone else and he's tied for the most touchdowns scored at 21. He's just two away from matching Jerry Rice's franchise record (although the GOAT WR did it in just 12 games due to a strike season), and he could get it with a game to spare to lead fantasy managers to the promised land against Washington's pushover defense.

  • Staying in the Bay Area, the splits with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are fascinating. In the 11 games that both have finished, they have identical 81.42% snap rates and 22.52% target shares with Samuel running routes on 89.77% of the dropbacks to Aiyuk's 89.49%. Deebo's unparalleled nose for the end zone gives him a PPG edge of 17.65 to 16.46 in those contests, and he does benefit from 2.67 carries for extra opportunities. Aiyuk is the more refined pure WR who relies a bit more on big plays, as his league-leading 18.5 yards per reception indicates, and his 1,203 receiving yards paces the team. If Samuel gets 166 receiving yards these last two weeks to hit the century mark, these two and George Kittle (currently at 991 yards), could become just the sixth trio in NFL history to all hit 1,000 yards and the first since 2008 Cardinals. That team was led to the Super Bowl by Kurt Warner, whom you may have heard has some similarities with a certain 49ers' QB.

Friday, December 1, 2023

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 8-12 2023

After the Harden trade was my weekly post and then my schedule didn't allow one in recent weeks, it's time to get back into the swing of things! With a lot to touch on, I'll just get right to things with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

  • Trey McBride wast the last bullet point in the last Gio-ing Deep I wrote, and while I've tried not to repeat players in back to back posts, his recent play definitely calls for it. In the five games since Zach Ertz was placed on IR, the second year TE has averaged 14.82 points while playing 83.13% of the snaps, participating in 82.14% of the routes, and commanding a massive 27.5% target share. That's even with the 5.2 dud when rookie Clayton Tune was an inept fill-in starter against the elite Browns defense. In just the three games that Kyler Murray has played, McBride has very similar 14.47, 87.31%, 85.37%, and 24.04% splits. Ertz asked for and was granted his release yesterday to join a contender, so it is firmly McBride TE1 SZN.


  • Another young TE that's been on the rise since a veteran teammate went down is Dalton Kincaid. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, things actually were already trending up in the last game that Dawson Knox played, with the rookie putting up 15.5 points despite Knox playing 63.38% of the snaps. In the six games from that week on, the 1st-round pick has averaged 14.1 points with a 21.13% target share. That's come while running a route on 79.61% of the dropbacks despite only playing 71.63% of the snaps as he's much more of a big slot receiver than true tight end at this point.

    The Bills had switched to much more two "tight end" sets early in the season with Kincaid in a hybrid role before reverting back to their typical three WR sets with Knox out, so it will be interesting to see what they go whenever he returns. A big factor could be the fact that Khalil Shakir, a sleeper I liked in the 2022 draft, has stepped up in the five games without Knox. His snap rate got bumped up to 73.58% during this time with an even higher 75.12% route participation, and he's turned a 12.07% target share into 11.3 points per game.