2018 NBA Power Rankings: Post All-Star Edition

With the All-Star Break and trade deadline in the rear view and every team having played between 55 and 61 games, it's time to take a quick look at each team for the last third of the NBA regular season! When organizing this list, teams seemed to group together in a mostly clear way, so I broke this down into tiers with considerations for performances so far and an outlook towards the future. To provide a full summary, I've listed records, how many of those games were at home versus on the road, point differential, and offensive and defensive ratings from NBA.com.

Title Favorites
Those most likely to hold up the Larry O'Brien trophy in June

1. Golden State Warriors (1st in the West) 44-14 (29 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +8.1 (3rd), Offense: 113.7 (1st), Defense: 103.7 (5th)

Kevin Durant's first 50 point game as a Warrior wasn't enough after a couple of close plays at the end of their last game, so they didn't become the first team to have the best record at the All-Star Break for four straight seasons. They also have a lower point differential than we're used to, but who are we kidding? This team is still the heavy favorite to win it all, and their net rating better reflects that, sitting at +10.0 per 100 possessions to lead the league. Injuries to youngsters Pat McCaw and possibly Jordan Bell will lead to further lineup experimentation ahead of the playoffs, and I wonder if staggering Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry will return, at least to a certain extent (something like Durant playing the first nine minutes of the 1st and last nine of the 2nd while Curry sticks with his usual 12 and six minute stints per half) to almost always have an MVP to lean on offensively. The usual unit to start the 2nd and 4th quarters (Shaun Livingston, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, and David West) has a +25.5 net rating rating across 116 minutes, but that's thanks to an incredible 77.5 defensive that might not be sustainable enough to continue overcoming a paltry 103.0 offensive rating that would rank 26th in the league.

2. Houston Rockets (2nd in the West) 44-13 (29 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: + 8.7 (1st), Offense: 113.2 (2nd), Defense: 104.6 (9th)

The sample size of them being 28-1 when Chris Paul, James Harden, and Clint Capela are healthy is getting to be hard to ignore. The surrounding cast has been shifting, and Ryan Anderson coming off the bench since coming back from injury is an interesting wrinkle that not only puts better defenders on the floor but also surprises teams with Harden guarding bigs at times. Buyout additions Joe Johnson and Brandan Wright provide experienced depth, but they had to let go of wing prospect Troy Williams and are now without much point guard depth if Paul or Harden get banged up. A couple big buckets by either of those veterans in the playoffs would make it all worth it, of course.

Beasts of the East
The favorites to be representing the conference in the Finals

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (1st in the East) 34-22 (27 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +0.2 (T-15th), Offense: 110.1 (5th), Defense: 109.8 (28th)

The most difficult team to rank since the performance to date obviously hasn't been impressive, especially since they've won six more games than expected based on point differential per CleaningTheGlass.com, but they completely revamped their team at the trade deadline and of course have LeBron James, who has represented his conference in seven straight Finals and seems rejuvenated by the recent moves. Much like the Warriors being the overall favorites, this is the team to beat in the East until proven otherwise. For what it's worth, they won in Boston and Oklahoma City by a combined 30 points with the new additions in the lineups.

4. Toronto Raptors (2nd in the East) 41-16 (28 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +8.5 (2nd), Offense: 110.7 (4th), Defense: 102.6 (T-3rd)

I really wanted to put them as the Eastern favorites, but they've let me down too many times in the playoffs. Reasons for encouragement include better ball movement on offense, DeMar DeRozan already setting a career high in 3's made as a result, and a 34-11 record since rookie OG Anunoby joined the starting lineup. That last point has led to that unit having a +12.0 net rating in 619 minutes and their eventual second unit of Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam, and Jakob Poeltl now getting up to a ridiculous +31.1 in 172 minutes, their second most used lineup. With no back to backs, benches don't play as much in the playoffs, though, so it's unclear how much of an advantage this will be when it counts.

5. Boston Celtics (3rd in the East) 40-19 (32 H, 27 R)
Point Differential: +3.5 (4th), Offense: 104.4 (21st), Defense: 100.9 (1st)

You may have heard about the offensive collapse since the calendar turned to 2018, and although that is an arbitrary cutoff point, being just 10-9 with the 28th ranked offense at 101.9 during that time is concerning, especially since they only have nine home games the rest of the way. Somewhat surprisingly, playing center Aron Baynes alongside the main four starters of Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford in a more traditional lineup has produced better offensive ratings in addition to stronger defense than going smaller with Marcus Morris next to that group, both before and after the New Year. Overall, the lineup with Baynes has a +13.5 net rating compared to having Horford at center next to Morris for a -10.4 net rating, largely due to the latter lineup having a terrible 75% defensive rebound rate, as expected. The looming question over all of these lineup decisions, though, is if/when Gordon Hayward can return to the rotation in some capacity after that gruesome injury in the opening minutes of the season.

2018 NBA Trade Deadline Week Recap

So much for that "quiet deadline," right? I've listed every move that's happened this week with almost all of them having every detail included by now (12:05 PM PST, just after the deadline has passed), and I'll add any further details plus some thoughts on the deals as the day goes on. All information about players' current salaries is from Eric Pincus at BasketballInsiders.com, with non-guaranteed, team option, and player option seasons color coded.

Milwaukee gets:

Tyler Zeller

$1,709,538

$1,933,941

Brooklyn gets:

Rashad Vaughn

$1,889,040

Milwaukee 2018 2nd round pick (protected 48-60, otherwise becomes 2020 2nd round pick)

Nets GM Sean Marks continues to do solid work with his cheap veteran signings, and now he cashed in one of them to pick up an extra draft pick that will likely last longer with the team than the former 17th overall pick was going to. Across 42 games (33 starts), Zeller averaged a solid 7.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 0.5 blocks in just 16.7 minutes with 54.6%/38.5%/66.7% shooting. I don't completely see the need on the Bucks' end for another limited big man, but they always seem to be looking for a center that can provide some offensive skills without killing them on the other end. Since they declined the fourth year option on Vaughn, they obviously didn't have plans for him in the future after he was also the 17th pick in his draft, so they must be hoping they'll be good enough that the 2nd rounder will be late enough to not be of much consequence.


Charlotte gets:

Willy Hernangomez

$1,435,750

$1,544,951

$1,701,735

New York gets:

Johnny O'Bryant

$1,524,305

Charlotte's 2020 and 2021 2nd round picks

Poor Hernangomez: he goes from out of the Knicks' rotation to a Hornets team that already has Dwight Howard, Cody Zeller, and Frank Kaminsky in established roles up front. Howard and Kaminsky only have one more year left on their deals, though, and the 23 year old Spaniard showed enough as a rookie (11.6/9.3/2.0 averages in 25.8 minutes over his 22 starts) that he can be thought of as a nice backup center option in the future. It would have been nice if things worked out for him to stay in New York with his former Sevilla teammate and buddy Kristaps Porzingis, but getting two 2nds back isn't bad value in return considering he was a 2nd rounder himself and that his defensive limitations have kept him out of favor this season.


Los Angeles signs Williams to 3 year, $24 million extension:

Lou Williams

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

$8,000,000

$8,000,000

With the last year reportedly only containing $1.5 million guaranteed, this was a surprisingly affordable extension for the Clippers since Williams was eligible to sign for upwards of $42 million over four years. I suppose the 31 year old veteran preferred some security in the same city after being on his fifth team in five season, including a year and a half in LA already with the Lakers, over chasing the Mid-Level Exception that is expected to have around an $8.6 million starting salary this summer. That's understandable, so hopefully for his sake the Clips don't end up trading him after the required six month wait now that the high-scoring 6th man is under team control like they did with Blake Griffin.

Chicago gets:

Willie Reed

$1,471,382

Right to swap 2022 2nd round picks

Detroit gets:

Jameer Nelson

$1,429,818

Don't look now, but after all the other times they conceded sweeteners as a throw-in, the Bulls actually made a deal that benefited them in the 2nd round! Nelson, who turns 36 tomorrow and will be on his fourth team since training camp, was never long for the rebuilding squad after being included in last week's trade, and now he gets to be reunited with his Orlando coach, Stan Van Gundy, as needed point guard depth for a team competing for a playoff spot. The cost is clearly low for the Pistons after Reed was also recently acquired as an extra piece in the Griffin trade, and it looks like Chicago is just going to waive him anyway despite his productive per-minute numbers. That's a little disappointing, but it does open up a roster spot to try out younger players while inching the Bulls ever so closer to the salary floor (more on that shortly). 

Los Angeles gets:

Channing Frye

$7,420,912

Isaiah Thomas

$6,261,395

Cleveland's 2018 1st round pick (protected 1-3)

Cleveland gets:

Jordan Clarkson

$11,562,500

$12,500,000

$13,437,500

Larry Nance Jr.

$1,471,382

$2,272,391

I'm still a bit in shock from the first stunner of deadline day as my initial thought from this morning still holds true: I can't believe the Cavs helped the Lakers clear salary space to target LeBron James and another max contract this summer. As things stand now with the 1st round pick sitting at #24 and estimated at a $1.82 million cap hold, LA can hold onto Julius Randle's cap hold as a restricted free agent and have $45.93 million in space. Clearing Clarkson's salary made things simpler to achieve the estimated $65.65 million in room needed for James and a 30% max salary player like Paul George (assuming a $101 million salary cap), though, because they can stretch Luol Deng's remaining salary and simply renounce Randle's rights like the rest of their free agents to reach $67.3 million. That number could increase a little bit if the pick becomes lower due to Cleveland improving after today or if they waive the non-guaranteed contracts of young players like Tyler Ennis, Ivica Zubac, or Thomas Bryant. Perhaps the Cavs are confident enough that James will stay, especially after fortifying their roster today, that it doesn't matter; there was a report two days ago that LA was shifting their focus to the 2019 free agent class after all. If that is the case, this still helps the Lakers get closer to having two max slots that summer as they'll now have over $60 million in space, and stretching Deng that year could offset a new deal for Randle that eats into that. Deng's contract might even be easier to move once it has less money remaining on it, but it's always been likely that it'll have to count as $7,362,000 in dead money over five years or $6,270,000 over three depending on once he's waived.

As for the actual product on the court, it's a shame how far Isaiah Thomas' stock has fallen after his hip injury and poor 15 game run in Cleveland that he's basically just an expiring contract, so hopefully he can rebuild his free agent value a bit with what is likely to be plenty of opportunity in LA. It may hurt his pride to come off the bench, but he could potentially feast on opposing second units, play alongside the 6'6" Lonzo Ball, and have free reign during the times the rookie is banged up like now. If Frye isn't bought out, he can help in their young players' development by providing floor spacing as a big man like I wrote about when Brook Lopez was brought in. For the Cavs, Nance will give them a player who actually brings effort on defense, and they've already seen recently with rookie Cedi Osman how much of an impact that simple difference can make. He can also slide across a couple of positions for some versatility along with Clarkson, and although the latter tends to give it back up on defense, he provides an athletic scoring punch to the back court with some passing. With that being said, it is a little odd that they did this move that required giving up a 1st round pick and taking on future salary considering they had their other big trade coming just a little bit later. Dealing with Isaiah Thomas' constant public comments couldn't have been that bad, could it?

It would be a real shame if someone captioned this pic.twitter.com/nNHImE8vWi

— Rob Perez (@World_Wide_Wob) February 8, 2018

Super Bowl LII

It's been a wild ride through the NFL playoffs to this point, but at the end of the day it's the two #1 seeds left standing for the fourth time in five years. The surprising part, of course, is that Philadelphia has been able to continue their strong play with backup quarterback Nick Foles, but the gamblers in Vegas are apparently believers with so much money coming in on them that the line has dropped by a point and a half. That being said, I'm going to fade the public and stick to my guns with my pick of the Patriots beating the Eagles to claim their third title in four years just like Super Bowl XXXIX.

Last week: 1-1
Season total: 151-114-1

Patriots -4.5 versus Eagles

Folks smarter than me have already written about how New England going with a no-huddle offense could provide a huge advantage and that the Philly defense isn't quite as elite when away from home, so I'll just focus on the matchups that lead me to a fairly confident Pats pick despite the fact that this group never scores in the first quarter of Super Bowls and are 3-4 against the spread in them. Obviously, the quarterbacks aren't on the field at the same time, but five time champion Tom Brady provides a clear edge over the occasionally impressive but inconsistent Foles. Rob Gronkowski officially getting cleared from the concussion protocol means Brady will have all his weapons available, and he could be a dark horse MVP pick at 9/1 odds. Although Malcolm Jenkins is a great strong safety capable of limiting most tight ends, Gronk is arguably the best ever and always a threat to score with 10 touchdowns in 10 full postseason games (not counting the Jaguars game when he suffered a first half concussion or the 2012 game when he re-broke his arm after just 7 snaps).

New Orleans lands Mirotic after all

New Orleans gets:

Nikola Mirotic

$12,500,000

$12,500,000

New Orleans 2018 2nd round pick

Chicago gets:

Omer Asik

$10,595,505

$11,286,516

$11,977,527

Tony Allen

$1,471,382

Jameer Nelson

$1,429,818

New Orleans 2018 1st round pick (protected 1-5, 1-8 in 2019, 1-10 in 2020, 1-9 in 2021, and converts to 2022 and 2023 2nd round picks)
Right to swap 2021 2nd round picks

The full protections on the 1st rounder New Orleans is sending doesn't really matter since it's unlikely that it will fall in the top-5 this year given that it's currently #17 with their 27-23 record, but we now have all the details of this trade after Woj tweeted them this morning. We also now know that recently bought out center Greg Monroe has chosen to sign with the Celtics for more money and better playoff odds, but that doesn't change the fact that the process behind this move, which cleared roster space and room under the Luxury Tax for the Louisiana native, was sound. The Pelicans went from just $706,678 under that threshold to $1,703,383, so they can still pursue other big men options to help fill the void left after DeMarcus Cousins unfortunately tore his Achilles.

A lot of the available minutes will go to Mirotic, of course, as he is a great stretch-four option with Anthony Davis shifting up to center, and picking up his team option for next season shouldn't have been as big of an issue as it was earlier in the week when this trade initially fell apart. Since he felt the chilled market last summer as a restricted free agent and had to settle for the one year deal with the option attached, he gained the ability to reject any trade since the acquiring team would lose his Bird rights. Mirotic rightfully leveraged the situation for the security of the $12.5 million being picked up, and then since he was no longer on a one year contract, his consent was no longer needed. I've seemingly always been higher on his ability than most, but he is certainly justifying that salary now with 16.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game in just 24.9 minutes on 47.4%/42.9%/82.3% shooting.