Super Bowl LII

It's been a wild ride through the NFL playoffs to this point, but at the end of the day it's the two #1 seeds left standing for the fourth time in five years. The surprising part, of course, is that Philadelphia has been able to continue their strong play with backup quarterback Nick Foles, but the gamblers in Vegas are apparently believers with so much money coming in on them that the line has dropped by a point and a half. That being said, I'm going to fade the public and stick to my guns with my pick of the Patriots beating the Eagles to claim their third title in four years just like Super Bowl XXXIX.

Last week: 1-1
Season total: 151-114-1

Patriots -4.5 versus Eagles

Folks smarter than me have already written about how New England going with a no-huddle offense could provide a huge advantage and that the Philly defense isn't quite as elite when away from home, so I'll just focus on the matchups that lead me to a fairly confident Pats pick despite the fact that this group never scores in the first quarter of Super Bowls and are 3-4 against the spread in them. Obviously, the quarterbacks aren't on the field at the same time, but five time champion Tom Brady provides a clear edge over the occasionally impressive but inconsistent Foles. Rob Gronkowski officially getting cleared from the concussion protocol means Brady will have all his weapons available, and he could be a dark horse MVP pick at 9/1 odds. Although Malcolm Jenkins is a great strong safety capable of limiting most tight ends, Gronk is arguably the best ever and always a threat to score with 10 touchdowns in 10 full postseason games (not counting the Jaguars game when he suffered a first half concussion or the 2012 game when he re-broke his arm after just 7 snaps).

Chris Hogan will probably have the biggest advantage throughout the game since he typically lines up on side of Jalen Mills, who is a talented corner but susceptible to being burned with double moves, and it's probably safe to assume they'll move their receivers around to try and get elite deep threat Brandin Cooks against Mills rather than Ronald Darby. I wouldn't expect them to attack slot corner Patrick Robinson too much after his terrific year, but since Danny Amendola apparently turns into a different player during the postseason, who knows? Lastly, the running back trio of Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and James White will likely continue to get more work through the air rather than on the ground since the Eagles have the advantage up front with their strong defensive line rotation and replacement middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbe can be taken advantage of in coverage. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox could be a game wrecker by himself with interior pressure that doesn't allow Brady to step up in the pocket, so quick check downs and some early screen passes will probably be used often to try to slow down the pass rush.

Philadelphia's running backs should find more success, especially if Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement can use their speed to get to the outside like the Corey Grant did for Jacksonville, but I don't think Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount will get much going in the power game. Although Jason Kelce leads a great offensive line, I'd expect New England to focus on clogging up the middle. Besides stopping the run, that can help them be ready for all of the Run Pass Options (RPOs) the Eagles use so often, and it could provide help against Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz. Agholor has the best matchup in this game with Eric Rowe in the slot while Ertz is a tough cover for strong safety Patrick Chung, so that's where I'd expect free safety Devin McCourty and heavily used third safety Duron Harmon to be helping. That should work since corner Stephon Gilmore can shadow his former South Carolina teammate Alshon Jeffery and showed in the AFC Championship Game why he got the big free agent contract, and Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler can run with Torrey Smith. With two weeks to prepare, Bill Belichick will have his team ready for any tricks second year coach Doug Pederson throws at them, and the experienced team should hold down the upstarts once again.