Thursday, April 27, 2017

2017 NFL Draft Live Blog

It's draft time! 2017 continues to fly by, and the craziness of the NFL draft is already upon us. Rather than bombard my twitter feed with pick by pick thoughts, I decided to take a page out of The Sports Guy's book and do a running diary of what's going on. There will still be some tweets embedded in here from stuff I see on my feed, but for the most part, this will be my immediate, unfiltered thoughts.

4:50 PM: Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot has reported earlier today that Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett is going to be the #1 pick, and I'm still recovering. I knew I shouldn't have gotten my hopes up again with the recent reports that North Carolina QB Mitchell "don't call me Mitch" Trubisky could still be in play with the top picks. My beloved 49ers won't be getting a generational pass rusher to play the Leo spot in their new 4-3 Under after all.

4:55 PM: Ian Rapoport comes on to reiterate that the 49ers are (wisely) exploring options to trade back from their #2 spot, and now the Bears are open to it, as well. This is what I've been clamoring for once Garrett proved at the combine that he is in a tier of his own atop the rankings and shouldn't be there with with second pick. This is a strong draft, but there isn't a clear cut #2 player since a bunch of players are all great between the 2 and 15-ish range. The problem is that you need a partner, so hopefully the smokescreen of interest in a QB or RB will generate enough interest for a trade with someone like the Jets, Panthers, or Browns with their other first round pick.

5:04 PM: NFL Network comes back from commercial to show the incredible scene of just how many people are attending the draft live now that it's back in Philadelphia for the first time since 1961. Hope it doesn't get too cold for them since Roger Goodell is just now starting the opening ceremonies in what will likely be a long night.

Saturday, April 15, 2017

Final 2017 NBA Power Rankings

Well, it wasn't exactly the last day of 2015 with most of the playoff proceedings already decided, but there was still some drama to close the season, albeit of the lottery variety. Here's a look at where every team ended up ranking with a little tidbit for each, and I put my first round playoff predictions after the lower seeds.

1. Golden State Warriors (1st in the West) 67-15
Point Differential: +11.6 (1st), Offense: 113.2 (1st), Defense: 101.1 (2nd)

They didn't match last season's record of 73 wins, due in part to a 2-5 stretch when Kevin Durant went down and resting their starters down the stretch of Monday's Jazz game that snapped their 14 game winning streak, but I'd say they're actually better overall than last year's squad that was unbelievably good in close games, including a 6-1 record in overtime games compared to 0-3 this season. In fact, they have a higher point differential this year, and it's the fourth best of all time, which is part of why they are the runaway favorites to reclaim the title, especially with KD back.


2. San Antonio Spurs (2nd in the West) 61-21 
Point Differential: +7.2 (2nd), Offense: 108.8 (7th), Defense: 100.9 (1st)

They lost 4 out of 5 to close the season since they limited the minutes of their key players once it was clear they weren't catching the Warriors for the best record, and yet they still ran away from the rest of the field. You can't really go wrong with any of the MVP candidates, but I would give it to Kawhi Leonard for leading this team into the post-Tim Duncan era without missing a beat despite being their only All-Star (although LaMarcus Aldridge had a case). In addition to being the best perimeter defender in the league, he took on a heavier scoring load to increase his career-high again to 25.5 points per game on an efficient 48.5%/38.1%/88% shooting line for .264 Win Shares per 48 minutes and a 27.5 Player Efficiency Rating.

Monday, April 3, 2017

Setting the Stage for the 2017 NBA Lottery

I have to admit: I have an irrational fascination with the NBA Lottery. It's amazing to me that the team with the worst record did not win the #1 pick in the first 10 years of the current format that has 14 teams in the lottery, but it has now happened in back to back years, with last year being the first time in history that no teams moved up at all. In fact, according to Zach Lowe's amazing recaps from inside the drawing room last year and in 2015, the first ping-pong ball drawn was #1 both times, basically signalling right away that the Sixers and Timberwolves had won since the worst record has 250 of the 286 four number combinations that include #1. I've even used the magical Wayback Machine to pull up his now defunct Point Forward blog that described the scene in the 2012 drawing room because I remember how incredible the emotions were in the Anthony Davis sweepstakes and how it got me hooked on the lottery process.

Thus, I wanted to set the stage for a highly anticipated game of chance and take a look at where things stand for the teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs for these final few games. For starters, here are the past results of the 12 lotteries under the current format with where the teams ranked in terms of how many ball combinations they had and their odds of landing in that spot:
The parenthetical notes indicate that's where the team ranked after a tiebreaker.