Top 2026 NFL Rookie WRs

The NFL is back! I started writing this annual post at the beginning of the summer but got sidetracked by writing about the NBA, trips, and other responsibilities, but I wanted to make sure to get it done before any of these rookie wide receivers play. It's a much deeper position than the running backs, but I'm not sure quite how much star power it will end up with.

As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides, and the statistical marks that he looks at. I also make note of players' physical traits more than he does, but athleticism tends to matter less at this position than for running backs or tight ends.

Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA) and yards per route run (YPRR) are the key production markers to keep in mind since they help tell a better story of a player's stats than raw numbers due to the huge differences in offensive styles from school to school. I'm also looking at how old they were when they became contributors and the percentage of their team's receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in games they participated in. On the athletic testing side, 40 yard dash, the subsequent height-adjusted speed score (HaSS), vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone time, and the short shuttle are all under consideration for WRs. I'm more focused on getting an idea of how athletic these prospects may or may not be than whether they hit certain thresholds, though.

Once again, all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic, and the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.

1. Jordyn Tyson - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Saints

Tyson was one of the more divisive figures of the 1st round with the perception of how high he'd go varying to a large degree during draft, but I'm a big fan. He didn't have as many college stops as his older brother Jaylon, who was an NBA 1st rounder two years ago, but Jordyn started first his career at Colorado, where he led a 1-11 team in receiving yards and touchdowns as a true freshman. He did that despite missing the final three games with a torn ACL, MCL, and PCL, and his pro-rated market shares of 27.57% and 50%, respectively, are excellent for an 18 year old, and he had a strong 2.79 YPRR.

Following the coaching change to Deion Sanders and reportedly not feeling wanted, Tyson was part of the massive roster overhaul and transferred to Arizona State, where he missed all but a handful of snaps in 2023 as his knee recovered. He came back stronger than ever as a redshirt sophomore to put up 75 catches for 1,101 yards, and 10 touchdowns in only 12 games, resulting in outstanding marks of 3.48 YPTPA, 3.04 YPRR, a 38.27% reception share, 40.81% yardage share, and 45.45% TD share.

Nagging hamstring strains to both legs limited Tyson this past season to drop those figures to 2.19, 2.37, 37.58%, 34.50%, and 72.73%, but those are all still better than a lot of his peers. His early breakout, best-season market shares, and even a career 2.71 YPRR combine for an elite production profile, and he was only 21.69 years old on draft day. 

Although Tyson wasn't healthy enough to participate in testing at the combine or a pro day, he was able to put on a private workout for teams before the draft to show his recovery from the hamstrings. He did join the measurements portion of the combine to confirm his 6'2.125" and 203 pound frame that allows him to play either outside or in the slot, and he makes the most out of that catch radius with good hands. Because he can get open with craft in addition to winning at the catch point with acrobatic grabs, Brugler even gave a Stefon Diggs comp.

Tyson was selected much higher in the draft than Diggs with the scary injury history not enough to prevent him from going in the top-10, and New Orleans is a really nice landing spot. Kellen Moore is a great offensive mind whose teams always tend to run a lot of plays thanks to a fast pace, and Tyler Shough improved at a nice rate as the second half of the season went on. The rookie will unfortunately start the season on IR with more hamstring issues, but whenever he makes his debut, he has a wide open opportunity to immediately become the #2 WR next to Chris Olave. While the Saints like Devaugn Vele (after surprisingly trading a 4th and 7th for him) and fellow rookie Bryce Lance also brings upside to the WR room, Tyson has the talent and runway to make an early impact just like he did in college.

2. Carnell Tate - 1st round, 4th overall, 1st WR drafted - Titans

While I think that Tyson will have the biggest impact on a per game basis, you can definitely make the case that Tate will have the best season-long stats as a rookie. Although it was a surprise just how high he went in the NFL draft, he was generally accepted to be the first WR selected thanks to having a pretty safe overall profile. As a sophomore, Tate was a contributor to Ohio State's 2024 national championship team playing alongside 1st rounder Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, a likely top-5 pick in next year's draft, and then he truly broke out as a 20 year old junior.

Tate's overall totals don't jump off the page due to missing three games, but in the contests that he played his 2.74 YPTPA, 3.03 YPRR, 28.61% yardage share, and 31.03% touchdown share were all strong marks. He can get a bit of a pass on the 20.73% reception share due to working more down the field with 17.2 yard per catch and playing next to a generational prospect like Smith. For Tate's three-year career, he averaged 2.27 YPRR, which is more than acceptable, especially for an early declare prospect.

Already holding high draft stock, Tate didn't do a full workout at the combine but showed that he has the prototypical physical tools of an outside receiver by running a solid 4.53 40 yard dash at 6'2.25" and 192 pounds. His 6'6" wingspan also doesn't hurt with the 50/50 balls that he comes away with down the field. Joining a Titans team that signed the 5'8" Wan'Dale Robinson to be the top target competition, the rookie is expected to have a prominent role. 31 year old Calvin Ridley is coming off of a broken leg, and while Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike showed some nice flashes as rookies, Tate earned way higher draft capital for a reason. The main question is how much of a leap will last year's #1 overall pick Cam Ward make with a new coaching staff.

3. Makai Lemon - 1st round, 20th overall, 3rd WR drafted - Eagles (traded up)

Lemon is an interesting case after he was expected to go in the top half of the 1st round before the Eagles eventually moved up to stop his fall. He had a 2.05 YPRR in a very limited role as a freshman before posting an elite 3.03 rate as a sophomore despite an uneven offense. Lemon only averaged 1.75 YPTPA that year with 23.85% of the team's receiving yards his only notable market share number. Things came together in a big way this past year, though, as he posted a 2.96 YPTPA, 3.13 YPRR, a 30.15% reception share, 32.4% yardage share, and 44% TD share.

Having a birthday in June of 2004, Lemon is on the older side for his year (he's actually older than Tyson despite being a grade below him) to make that a 21 year old breakout as a junior, but those are still elite numbers, as is his 3.02 career YPRR. At 5'11.125", 192 pounds and wearing a single digit number at USC, it's easy to make a a comparison to Amon-Ra St. Brown (5'11.5" and 197 pounds at his combine) like Daniel Jeremiah did. Lemon's 4.50 40 at his pro day isn't going to blow anyone away but is adequate enough, especially for the type of receiver he is with his quickness and versatility to work out of the slot.

Landing in Philadelphia should provide a nice opportunity immediately with the departure of AJ Brown. Lemon missed a good amount of the offseason with hamstring issues, so he might start the season as the #3 receiver but could easily finish as the #2 behind DeVonta Smith by the end of the season. Trade acquisition Dontayvion Wicks has been productive in a limited role, so we'll see if provides tough competition throughout the season. They made the move up to draft Lemon for a reason, though, and his type of talent should show itself sooner rather than later.

Top 2026 NFL Rookie RBs

The NFL Draft has long been over, and I finally finished my first dynasty league rookie draft of the season. That means that now is as good of a time as ever to go through some rookie rankings, starting with the weakest group in this class. There weren't many running backs taken overall and especially not early as a lot of the prospects have question marks. 

I ended up going a bit longer than expected on the clear top runner, but that's reflective of this draft with shorter write ups thereafter. As usual, I'm taking into account three components when evaluating these prospects: their production profile, their athleticism, and where they were drafted. As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides that go over his statistical models and how RBs' speed scores (based on 40 yard dash and weight) are important.

I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's total offensive touchdowns, and his share of the team's receptions in the games that he played. Besides speed score, I'm looking at vertical jumps and broad jumps to get a further idea of physical traits, and all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic. Finally, the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.

1. Jeremiyah Love - 1st round, 3rd overall, 1st RB drafted - Cardinals

Like last year, this is the easiest start possible given Love's complete profile. You can argue that a team with as many roster needs as Arizona shouldn't take a running back so high (his draft slot will earn him the most guaranteed money at the position in NFL history, for example), but what is a widely held opinion is that he is the best skill position player in this draft. Perhaps even the best player overall.

Love broke out as a 19 year old sophomore on Notre Dame's national runner up team in 2024 with 163 carries for 1,125 yards (6.90 per carry) and 17 touchdowns along with 28 catches for 237 yards and another 2 scores. That resulted in a strong 27.54% touchdown share and 9.46% reception share but just okay 1.34 total yards per team play and 0.53 receiving yards team per pass attempt. This past season, however, he had similar yet improved raw numbers despite fewer games played, and thus his market shares were great across the board.

Carrying the ball 199 times for 1,372 yards (6.89), Love tied the Fighting Irish record with 18 rushing touchdowns, and with his 27 catches for 280 yards and 3 more end zone trips, his 21 total TDs set a new record in the school's long history. He would've also broken the records for most rushing yards and yards from scrimmage had he not been slowed by rib injury during his last game of the season or had the team not been frustratingly left out of the playoff bracket. Altogether, the Doak Walker award winner and Heisman trophy finalist scored 33.33% of the team's offensive TDs, averaged 2.20 TY/P and 0.87 RY/PA, and caught 12.44% of their receptions.

Love showed out at the Combine despite being a lock to be the top RB in this week class, which shows what kind of competitor he is and how confident he is in his athleticism. At 6'0" and 212 pounds, he blazed a 4.36 40 yard dash for an elite 117.33 speed score. He uses that strong frame and competitiveness as a very willing blocker, often leading the way on designed quarterback runs by the goal line that hurt his own scoring numbers. Sharing a backfield with a fellow 1st round pick (see below) didn't help either, and yet he still hits basically every mark. The reception share isn't at the top of the class but is still plenty good as he displayed dynamic ability as a receiver, with his one hander against Texas A&M a good example.

Altogether, Love possesses a three-down skill set with a terrific production profile, high-end physical tools, and about as high of a pedigree as you could get. Not even turning 21 until the end of May, he lands in a situation that isn't necessarily great but could be worse. The offensive line has potential after signing Isaac Seumalo and drafting Chase Bisontis in the 2nd round to improve both guard spots. In the short term, Jacoby Brissett displayed last season that he can run a functional passing game with a strong group of targets in Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson. The selection of Carson Beck in the 3rd round leaves a lot to be desired as a long-term QB to line up next to, but they could have another high draft pick in next year's stronger class. The signing of Tyler Allgeier to go with veteran holdover James Conner and 2024 2nd round pick Trey Benson is what made picking a RB at #3 such a surprising choice. The latter two are coming off of season-ending injuries, though, and have no attachment to a brand new coaching staff in place. They may cap Love's upside as a rookie with something of a committee, but his ascension to one of the league's stars should only be a matter of when, not if.

2. Jadarian Price - 1st round, 32nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Seahawks

Notre Dame made history in the 1st round with this being the first time in the common draft era that the first two RBs selected came from the same school. Love and Price are also just the sixth pair of RB teammates to go in the 1st round and the first since Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (Arkansas) in 2008. Naturally, Price doesn't have a strong production profile given Love's dominance, so there's a lot of projecting needed here.

The main appeal for Price is his big play ability that was on display with his 15 total touchdowns on just 131 touches as a redshirt junior last season. Two of those came on special teams en route to being named a first team All-American kick returner (12 for 450 yards), and two others came as a receiver despite having just 6 catches for 87 yards. Hardly being involved at all in the passing game is the biggest knock for Price as he had paltry reception shares of 2.20%, 1.35%, and 2.76% over his three seasons.

That also resulted in just 0.27 RY/PA and 1.01 TY/P, with a 20.63% touchdown share being the only production metric even close to average in this class, but again, this was always going to be the case next to Love. Price did rank second within the class with 19.22% of his career carries going for 10+ yards, and looking more at physical traits, his Combine performance showed that he is a good, if unspectacular athlete. At 5'10.625" and 203 pounds, his 4.49 40 time was a little surprising given all of his long runs, but it was still enough for a decent speed score of 99.89. The 10'4" broad jump and 35" vertical better displayed his explosiveness, and he put up 21 bench press reps to boot.

What really solidified Price's ranking in this class was Seattle taking him in the 1st round. Possessing a monstrous defense and strong offensive line, the Super Bowl champions love to run the ball, and the 22 year old will have the opportunity to be the Week 1 starter. With Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL in January and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker lost to free agency, Price will be competing with Emanuel Wilson, who only received $1.6 million in free agency after being a Packers backup, and George Holani, who was re-signed for under $1.1 million after mostly playing special teams. Draft capital doesn't always guarantee playing time, but in this situation, the rookie has a great chance to be featured more as a pro than he was in college.

Top NFL Rookie WRs for 2025

It's been a while! I meant to get this out not much longer after the rookie running backs and TEs posts in May, but the NBA offseason having action start sooner than ever threw me off before travel plans over the summer. Now the 2025 NFL season is here, so I'll will fire through this wide receiver class that's not as awesome as recent years but still has a lot to like.

As a reminder, a lot of what I base profiles on comes from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years with certain statistical lenses to look through. I also tend to look at athleticism testing a little more than he does, but Ryan Heath's research at Fantasy Points indicates findings that it shouldn't be too much of a factor in success compared to other positions. Still, I'll be referencing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast); draft day age; breakout age; production profiles based on yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA), and market share rates; and then situation comes in at the end.

1. Tetairoa McMillan - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Panthers

There is a lot to like about McMillan's complete profile. He broke out as a true freshman (albeit as a 19 year old) largely based on accounting for 30.77% of Arizona's touchdowns. He really took off as a sophomore with an elite 3.02 yards per team pass attempt, a great 2.79 yards per route run, and strong market shares across the board with 27.11% of the team's catches, 34.98% of the yards, and 27.78% of the TDs. Finally, he maintained his production as a junior with a nearly identical 3.02 Y/TPA, 2.87 YPRR, and per game averages even as the team wasn't as good around him, resulting in improved rates of 32.06%, 44.34%, and 44.44%.

McMillan brings great size at 6'4.125" and 219 lbs, and although he didn't work out at the combine, he reportedly ran a more than adequate 4.53 40 yard dash at his pro day. That combination along with his track record of production means that he has all the traits to become an alpha receiver, and getting picked in the top-10 by a team who needs just that is enticing. Head coach Dave Canales has talked about running his passing attack through his top outside target and showed that through the beginning of last season with Diontae Johnson (before he apparently crashed out across multiple teams) and the prior year as offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans. Adam Thielen getting traded last week opens up even more target opportunity, so McMillan should be the clear cut top rookie WR this season.

2. Travis Hunter - 1st round, 2nd overall, 1st WR* drafted - Jaguars (traded up)

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is of course a fascinating case since he will be playing cornerback in addition to wide receiver, hence the asterisk above. The fact that Jacksonville gave up a king's ransom to move up to take him with the #2 pick gives a good idea of their big plans for him, so he could end up being the better long-term investment in dynasty over McMillan. We don't know just how many of the offensive snaps that Hunter will be playing compared just yet, and his statistical profile won't overwhelm you, which is understandable given how he pulled double duty.

Only a month younger than McMillan, Hunter broke out as a 20 year old sophomore upon transferring to Colorado after shocking the world by initially going to HBCU Jackson State as the #1 recruit in the nation. He only had 2.04 Y/TPA and 2.17 YPRR, however, with a 23.36% reception share, 26.06% yards share, and 21.74% touchdown share. Those improved across the board last season to 2.61, 2.51, 27.20%, 30.43%, and especially to 40.54%, but that still isn't necessarily elite anywhere.

The scouts rave about Hunter's traits, though, and Reception Perception guru Matt Harmon mentioned his fluid movements in the same breath as a young Odell Beckham Jr. They have similar size with Hunter 6'0.375" and 188 lbs to OBJ's 5'11.25" and 198, and perhaps with more focus on developing more as a receiver, the comparisons could continue. The Jaguars already have Brian Thomas Jr. as a #1 option for the foreseeable future after an outstanding rookie year, but there is a ton of opportunity for targets behind him with the departures of Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. New head coach Liam Coen brings an exciting element to this offense now after he followed in Canales' footsteps as the Buccaneers OC for one year before a promotion, and Hunter could end up playing a large role in it.

Top NFL Rookie TEs for 2025

Teams across the NFL have begun their OTAs, so now is a good time to continue looking at this rookie class. After the running backs that I started with, I'd say that tight ends are the next strongest group this year. To reiterate, this isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

And once again, the basis of what I look for originates from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, although TEs are newer to his model. Based on his research and Ryan Heath's at Fantasy Points, athleticism matters the most at this position compared to running backs and especially compared to wide receivers. I'll be weighing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast) and draft day age before production profiles based on career yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, and then situation comes in at the end.

1. Colston Loveland - 1st round, 10th overall pick, 1st TE drafted - Bears

The week of the draft, I posted in my work's "Hot Take Board" that although Tyler Warren will be drafted first, Loveland has the highest upside of this class and will end up as the TE1...and then Chicago made me look smart by taking Loveland first despite all of the mock drafts and rankings out there. He didn't give us any athleticism measurements but did come in at an impressive 6'5.75" and 248 lbs while only turning 21 just a few weeks before the draft.

That youth makes it even more impressive how efficient Loveland was in a limited Michigan passing attack. As a sophomore, he caught 45 passes for 649 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games for the national champions, and while that might not sound like much at the surface level, that's where YPRR tells more of the story given how little his team threw the ball. His 2.38 mark that year is pretty elite, and it was even better last season, 2.67, when his raw totals were 56 catches, 582 yards, and 5 scores in only 10 games. Overall, he finished with 2.22 YPRR for his career before getting awesome draft capital as the first pick of Ben Johnson's career as a head coach. The hottest offensive coordinator on the market, Johnson ran the show in Detroit when Sam LaPorta shockingly led the position in total points as a rookie two years ago, and while I wouldn't expect that lofty of a season due to the WR target competition, Loveland certainly is in line to pace his 2025 peers.

2. Tyler Warren - 1st round, 14th overall pick, 2nd TE drafted - Colts

Warren was widely expected to be the first TE off the board after he had 104 catches, 1,233 yards, and 8 TDs last year with an additional 218 yards and 4 scores on 26 carries, but I'm not entirely surprised that he fell slightly since that came somewhat out of nowhere as a redshirt senior. As a high school quarterback who joined a position group at Penn State that contained three other NFL players (Pat Freiermuth, Brenton Strange, and Theo Johnson), it's understandable that he was a late bloomer, having just turned 23 this past week compared to Loveland.

It all came together last year for 2.78 YPRR after being at 1.41 and 1.34 the previous two seasons, and that brought his career rate to a strong 1.98. Neither of these top-two TEs gave us athletic testing, but you can see on film how much Warren beasted opponents at 6'5.5" and 256 lbs. The problem in the immediate future is that he landed in Indianapolis, where either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones will be throwing passes to him as a rookie. While I already would've had him as #2 in this class, I think that drops him to a tier by himself after Loveland.

Top NFL Rookie RBs for 2025

Now that the NFL Draft is firmly in the rearview mirror and my first dynasty league rookie draft is over, I wanted to put together some thoughts on this year's class. It's a total flip from last year's strong group of wide receivers and flawed running backs, so this time I'm starting with the unusually deep class of RBs. This isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

As often mentioned, the three factors that I take into consideration for this are production profiles, physical traits, and situation. I care most about the first part and have based a lot of what I look for on JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, so I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's receptions, and his share of the team's total touchdowns in the games that he played. Athleticism does matter a bit more at this position than at WR, though, so players' Speed Score (based on 40 yard dash and weight) and jumps are important. Stats cited are coming from Sports Reference while measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic.

1. Ashton Jeanty - 1st round, 6th overall, 1st RB drafted - Raiders

This is an easy start after Jeanty finished just shy of breaking Barry's Sanders' NCAA record for rushing yards in a season and then got top-10 draft capital to a RB-needy team. Even before Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a junior, he was a great prospect based on a sophomore year that saw him have 2.42 total yards per play, 1.85 receiving yards per attempt, a 23.76% reception share, and 41.30% TD share. Anything approaching 2, 0.70, 12%, and 35% as a best season mark in those categories is great, and he shattered each of those as a 19 year old.

Jeanty wasn't asked to do as much through the air last year due to the heavy workload on the ground, but he still had a respectable 8.81% reception share while bumping his TY/P and TD% to 2.82 and 45.45%, respectively. He did measure only 5'8.5" and didn't work out at all in the pre-draft process (because he didn't need to), but he is a solid 211 lbs and obviously showed he can be a workhorse with 397 total touches last year.

RBs getting drafted this highly are practically guaranteed to see large workloads anyway, but both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are no longer with the Raiders after leading the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert was signed as a veteran option, but at 33 years old, the speedster will likely only be a change of pace option and not much of a threat to receiving work. Jeanty could be a top-5 fantasy RB immediately and is the 1.01 in rookie drafts.

2. Omarion Hampton - 1st round, 22nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Chargers

In a lot of classes, Hampton would be the RB1 and was the only other 1st rounder at the position thanks to a very complete profile after 1,500+ rushing yards, 15 TDs, and 29+ catches as both a sophomore and junior. He averaged a strong 1.82 TY/P and decent 0.49 RY/PA with solid 9.93% and 29.63% market shares in the first of those years before improving across the board to elite marks of 2.40, 0.99, 17.35%, and 39.53%.

Hampton did this at 5'11.75" and 221 lbs, and even with that size he ran a 4.46 40 yard dash for a great Speed Score of 111.71. He also had a 38" vertical and 10'10" broad jump to further show his explosiveness, so he certainly looks the part of a bell cow 'back. How soon until he gets that role is to be determined because the Chargers are an interesting landing spot. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman typically like to lean on the running game often, and they've chosen to leave last year's leading rushers, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, unsigned.

Najee Harris was added instead, but it's only a one-year deal with $5.25 million guaranteed before another possible $4M in incentives, per OverTheCap.com. While both Harris and Hampton are big, well-rounded RBs, the veteran doesn't offer much big-play ability as he infamously doesn't have a run of 40+ yards in his career. Even if it's not top-10 draft capital like Jeanty, 1st round RBs are usually featured, so Hampton could easily be the leader of this committee by season's end ahead of Harris hitting free agency again. I'm also a fan Raheim Sanders, whom they added as a surprising undrafted free agent, and perhaps he could work his way into becoming Hampton's backup a year from now. 

The 49ers and the #3 Pick

At long last, the draft is just about here! That means all of the speculation around who the 49ers will take with the 3rd pick is almost over, but I figured I might as well put together some comprehensive thoughts on the matter instead of just some tweets about the quarterbacks here or there. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are widely expected to be the first two selections by the Jaguars and Jets, respectively, so mock drafts all essentially start with which passer San Francisco selects. Since the Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch regime has been remarkably quiet in terms of media leaks, let's ignore all of the rumors about who the likely pick will be for now and dig into the options.

Justin Fields is the second best prospect in my eyes, even ahead of Wilson, with his combination of a high ceiling and floor. At ages 20 and 21, he performed at the highest level to lead Ohio State to a 20-2 record with the two losses only coming in the College Football Playoff. Between the two seasons, he completed 68.39% of his 26.32 attempts per game to average 244.23 passing yards with 63 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions for an impressive Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) of 10.76, and he added 39.41 rushing yards per game with 15 more touchdowns on the ground. It's worth remembering that yards lost on sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, but in any case, he proved that he is much more of a passer than a runner even with his elite physical profile.

TSFJ Posts: June Round Up

Since I've been contributing to The Sports Fan Journal more frequently, I will occasionally be posting links to my works here for easy access. My latest from this month:

Here Are The 6 Teams That Could Offer DeMarcus Cousins The Max This Summer

I take a look around the NBA to see who actually has significant cap space.

The Financials Are Clear: Kyler Murray Is Right To Choose Baseball

An examination of the financial choice the A's first round pick and Oklahoma quarterback faced.

See How A Cavs Rebuild Could Be Less Painful Than 2010's

A breakdown of where the Cavaliers roster would stand in a post-LeBron world from a cap perspective.

5 Rookie Receivers That Can Make An Instant Impact

I make the case for which rookie wide receivers might help their teams right away based on a specific set of criteria.

2018 NFL Draft Live Blog

At long last, it's draft day in the NFL! After re-watching Kevin Costner's amazingly entertaining Draft Day (featuring Chadwich Boseman just in time for Avengers: Infinity War!), I am so ready for all the trades tonight. It's sure to be one of my wildest 1st rounds in recent memory thanks to the range of opinions on the quarterbacks, and I might not have been creative enough with my mock draft last week. As you can see there, I've begun contributing to TheSportsFanJournal.com, where I also wrote about three running back sleepers after the 1st round (in addition to tackling the NBA ROY debate), and that's why there hasn't been anything recent on this site. That changes tonight -- obviously, since you're reading this -- as I'll be continually updating this with analysis throughout the round just like last year.

My excitement/relief about today's arrival is probably nothing compared to all of those involved after so much scrutiny they've gone through, and this time of year there's so much misinformation out there. The fact that there are so many conflicting reports out there about what Cleveland is going to do at #1 is amazing, especially with reports that GM John Dorsey has kept Mr. 1-31 aka coach Hue Jackson out of the loop until just recently. It's hilarious that so many reporters suddenly feel most certain about Baker Mayfield being the guy. You know, right around the time that Jackson was told the pick...

4:53 PM PST: Since they have their choice of players at the top, it may seem silly to have "smokescreens" out there about who they'll take, but I think it makes some sense to keep people guessing and create chaos around trade talks for other teams since they're picking again at #4. I hope that Dorsey just told Jackson that Mayfield is the guy just to throw off the scent because he knows how close he is to the media, but IF the former Sooner does end up going #1, that would certainly change up how I see the top of the draft going. Sam Darnold appears to be the only one the Giants appear to be set on ahead of Saquon Barkley, and with the Jets likely to take the next best quarterback, Josh Rosen, that could suddenly create a ton of demand for #4. That could be where Buffalo or Arizona trades up to, but I'll stick with Bradley Chubb to Cleveland for now. Then the Broncos, Colts, or Buccaneers could suddenly be gifted Barkley to fill their running back hole, or they could make that trade down, with Denver potentially taking Josh Allen themselves.

4:58: Almost showtime! Call me crazy, but I still believe it'll be Darnold until I see definitely otherwise. One last what-if thought exercise, though:
1. Mayfield
2. Darnold
3. Rosen
4. Chubb
5. Barkley
6. Allen (Buffalo trade)
7. Derwin James (it's a real coin flip after I had Minkah Fitzpatrick here in my mock)
8. Quenton Nelson
9. Fitzpatrick
10. Roquan Smith (though he could go 6 if Indy isn't who makes the trade)

5:05: Bringing out Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman, and Jason Witten with him didn't stop Roger Goodell from getting booed!

5:14: They're really using up the whole 10 minutes even though they've been on the clock since the season ended...But Mayfield is on the phone apparently! Looks like he really is getting the draft call.

5:17: And it's official: The reigning Heisman winner who was originally a walk on at Texas Tech is the #1 overall pick. I really didn't expect that since Dorsey is known as a "measurables guy" and Mayfield only came in at 6’0⅝”, 215 lbs at the combine (6’0⅜”, 216 lbs at the Senior Bowl, oddly), but apparently Scott McCloughlan really has his ear.

5:20: Troy Aikman is the first to bring up the Johnny Manziel comparison! I've had that sort of feeling for a while, and it'll only grow stronger now that Mayfield is also a Brown. He has kind of won me over, but I still have Darnold and Rosen as better prospects. For what it's worth, the Pro Football Focus has had Mayfield as the top guy going back to October.

5:22: The Giants stuck with Barkley after all. I can understand it more than most running backs thanks to his impact in the passing game, but man, when will they have the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback again? Eli Manning is 37.

5:28: Jets pick up Darnold and probably rejoice. Rich Eisen points out that he's only 20 years old (turning 21 in six weeks), and that two year edge on Mayfield shouldn't go unnoticed. Being so young when drafted is yet another similarity he has to Jameis Winston, who was also better as a redshirt freshman than in his draft season. They're also similar in size, play more athletically than they tested, have slightly funky deliveries, and can be turnover prone. That wouldn't be too shabby compared to how the last USC quarterback the Jets took ended up turning out, even if they did overpay to move up to this spot weeks ago.

5:36: Another Cleveland stunner: Denzel Ward at #4! I can't knock it since I view him as the best pure outside corner in the draft, but I didn't think they'd prioritize the position since they added E.J. Gaines, T.J. Carrie, and Terrance Mitchell as veterans already. Seems like they tried trading down but were asking for too much and just took their guy higher than expected. With Denver supposedly smitten with him, ideally after a trade down, they must be a bit disappointed.

5:43: I remember Peter King mentioned that Denver loved Bradley Chubb but never thought he'd be there at #5. I'm not sure how great he'll transition to a 3-4 defense, but that might not matter since nickel defense is basically the new base. They'll probably still look for that third corner as Aqib Talib's replacement in the next round or two. My question is if this means they might shop Shane Ray or Shaq Barrett, who just recently signed his 2nd round restricted free agency tender.

Addressing the 49ers' Needs

NFL free agency begins next week, and now that the draft combine and franchise tag deadline are in the rear view, it's the perfect time to look at the outlook for one of 2018's most interesting teams, the San Francisco 49ers. Depending on the sportsbook, Vegas has given them around 20-1 odds to win the Super Bowl next year after finishing last season on a five game winning streak with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, and the former Patriot has already been re-signed at the highest annual salary in the league (at least until Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers reset the market). A 6-10 team that started 0-9 being within the top ten favorites may seem ambitious, but this franchise has some precedent for quick turnarounds: the 49ers' first Super Bowl winner in 1981 went 13-3 after being 6-10 and 2-14 the previous two years. Their record before coach Kyle Shanahan arrived this past season? 2-14.

I'm not saying this team is ready to win it all this year, but they might not be as far away as the casual fan might think if they can make some key additions. Quarterback is often considered the most important position in sports for a reason, and the turnaround under Garoppolo is an example why, as the offense went from being ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards, yards per play, and points before he took over to being in the top five in each. Furthermore, the defense experienced a similar improvement to the top 10 in those same categories, and although that can partly be attributed to rookie defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and a lineup filled with young players getting more comfortable as the season progressed, the offense no longer put them in disadvantageous situations. With the fifth most salary cap space per OverTheCap.com and nine draft picks (selections 9, 59, 70, 74, 128, 143, 184, 227, and 240) at the disposal of John Lynch and the front office, here are their biggest needs and some options to fill them to at least make them playoff contenders.

This coach-QB pairing is cause for celebration.

Cornerback: 3rd round round pick Ahkello Witherspoon came on strong down the stretch, starting the final nine games and earning an 81.1 grade from Pro Football Focus, but even if he grows into more than a solid starter, there's still a massive hole across from him with Dontae Johnson often struggling and not expected back in free agency. K'Waun Williams made a strong enough first impression to earn the first extension under the new regime early in the season, but at just 5'9" he is limited to nickel duties, especially in Saleh's Cover 3 scheme from Seattle that prefers more length on the outside. That role still put him on the field for 56.18% of the team's defensive snaps despite missing two games, though, showing that you can never have enough corners in today's pass happy NFL. You can expect them to add at least one veteran capable of starting on the outside (as evidenced by their reported interest in Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Vontae Davis, and David Amerson already) and draft another corner early, ideally with one of them able to also playing in the slot to provide competition and depth for Williams.

Free agent options

• Being just under 5'10", Malcolm Butler may not be a perfect fit, but he has shown over the past three years that he is a high-level starter and only just turned 28. He's played a variety of roles in New England with their game plan specific schemes, so strange Super Bowl benching that arguably cost them this year's championship notwithstanding, I'm not concerned about his ability to play zone in the Cover 3 or shadow man-to-man. 
• Trumaine Johnson is the other corner considered among the best free agents and often mentioned with the 49ers due to his hometown of Stockton, CA and great length at 6'2" with 33.25" arms, but I'm not convinced he'll be worth the huge contract he'll get based on his inconsistency over the years.
• Kyle Fuller's combination of production, size, and youth might be the most intriguing of all the options, but Chicago placed the transition tag on him so that they can match any offer sheet he signs. With their other starting corner a free agent on this list, I don't think the Bears are going to let their former 1st round pick get away.
• Given more of a mid-tier price range, Aaron Colvin is probably my favorite option based on him only being 26, his ability to play in the slot, and the connection to Saleh, who was on the Jacksonville coaching staff the previous three seasons and runs essentially the same scheme. With Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye starring on the outside, Colvin was limited to nickelback, but I think he's talented enough to excel in a larger role, somewhat in a similar way to how Casey Hayward has become a star as a Charger after an up-and-down tenure in Green Bay.
• Prince Amukamara also overlapped with Saleh in Jacksonville, and although he never became the star expected when picked 19th overall in 2011, he has been a reliable starter on the outside. His 81.2 PFF grade in Chicago this season actually wasn't far behind his teammate Fuller, but with his 29th birthday months away, I don't expect a price tag nearly as high.
• I hadn't put a lot of thought to Rashaan Melvin after he finished his breakout season on injured reserve, but after the Better Rivals podcast made the case for him as a late bloomer with standout athleticism, I realized that he could be this year's A.J. Bouye without as expensive of a salary commitment. According to DraftScout.com's pro day numbers, he put together a 4.42 40 yard dash, 10'6" broad jump, and 38" vertical at just under 6'2" and 192 pounds, so together with the success he found this season, he might be the best lottery ticket of the bunch since the new regime seems to place an emphasis on athleticism. Like Amukamara, Melvin will be 29 this year, so I could see him getting a nice payday that's only a short term deal while a prospect is drafted in the first three rounds to develop.

2017 NFL Draft Live Blog

It's draft time! 2017 continues to fly by, and the craziness of the NFL draft is already upon us. Rather than bombard my twitter feed with pick by pick thoughts, I decided to take a page out of The Sports Guy's book and do a running diary of what's going on. There will still be some tweets embedded in here from stuff I see on my feed, but for the most part, this will be my immediate, unfiltered thoughts.

4:50 PM: Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot has reported earlier today that Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett is going to be the #1 pick, and I'm still recovering. I knew I shouldn't have gotten my hopes up again with the recent reports that North Carolina QB Mitchell "don't call me Mitch" Trubisky could still be in play with the top picks. My beloved 49ers won't be getting a generational pass rusher to play the Leo spot in their new 4-3 Under after all.

4:55 PM: Ian Rapoport comes on to reiterate that the 49ers are (wisely) exploring options to trade back from their #2 spot, and now the Bears are open to it, as well. This is what I've been clamoring for once Garrett proved at the combine that he is in a tier of his own atop the rankings and shouldn't be there with with second pick. This is a strong draft, but there isn't a clear cut #2 player since a bunch of players are all great between the 2 and 15-ish range. The problem is that you need a partner, so hopefully the smokescreen of interest in a QB or RB will generate enough interest for a trade with someone like the Jets, Panthers, or Browns with their other first round pick.

5:04 PM: NFL Network comes back from commercial to show the incredible scene of just how many people are attending the draft live now that it's back in Philadelphia for the first time since 1961. Hope it doesn't get too cold for them since Roger Goodell is just now starting the opening ceremonies in what will likely be a long night.

2013 NFL Mock Draft V2

I wrote a bit too much about team needs and fit in my first mock draft, so here's a more succinct version that now includes trades. These trades are purely based on gut calls. Happy Draft Day everyone!

1. Chiefs: Eric Fisher, Central Michigan OT: The media buzz is that Fisher is now the pick.

2. Jaguars: Dion Jordan, Oregon DE/OLB: I think the talk of taking one of tackles is a smokescreen, or a trade is still a possibility.

Jordan's versatility makes him appealing to a lot of teams.

NFL Mock Draft 2013

It's been a while since my last post since I started working with Krossover Sports as a game analyst, where we help teams such as Amherst, the D3 national champs. With the NFL Draft fast approaching, it's time to dust off the keyboard. This mock draft is based on how the prospects fit with each team in a way that reflects my personal rankings.

Joeckel may not have as much upside at #1, but he's the safest pick.

1. Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M OT: The new regime in Kansas City has inherited a talented, albeit underachieving, roster that has been supplemented by strong free agent signings and the Alex Smith trade. One of those free agents is left tackle Branden Albert, who was given a one year deal via the Franchise Tag. That gives the Chiefs the option to let Joeckel, the safest prospect in the draft, develop on the right side for a year, or they can trade Albert to a tackle needy team in order to regain an asset.

LSU. Alabama. Who to Watch For

The National Championship game is tonight, and I am shocked that #1 LSU is the underdog. I've always had a soft spot for the Tigers, and I'll also be rooting for them because of the ruckus that would ensue if Alabama wins and gains the title of "National Champions" despite the fact that both teams will have defeated each other once. Nonetheless, 'Bama IS a loaded team that is very much LSU's equal, and this game will feature a bundle of pro prospects to watch for. I'm picking LSU because they always seem to weather the storm before coming back even stronger with a counter punch because they have so much depth and playmaking ability, headed by sophomore defensive back Tyrann Mathieu. The Honey Badger takes what it wants, and Mathieu always finds a way to make an impact in games whether it be an interception, forced fumble, punt return, or a simple pass break up. He's not draft eligible yet, but he is definitely a player you want to watch tonight.

Will Randle be able to break loose tonight?