The NFL returns tonight! And after a little hiatus the last couple of years, I'm bringing back one of my favorite topics that I used to write for The Sports Fan Journal: Which rookie wide receives will contribute the most this season?
There are three factors that I take into consideration for this. The first, and most important, is how productive these prospects were in college. A lot of what I'm looking for is based on JJ Zachariason's research over the years (you should check out his prospect guide on LateRound.com) with market share numbers along with yards per route run (Y/RR) from Pro Football Focus. Next, I'm looking for physical traits shown at the NFL Combine (ideally) or college pro days. Lastly, I'm looking at the situation they landed in, which can be based on the draft capital teams invested in them and/or the amount of available targets there will be. 4for4.com has a very helpful list of targets and air yards that are unaccounted for from last season.
This year's wide receiver class is both strong at the top and deep, which made the order of this list complicated, but hopefully the profiles allow for some nuance with how I'm viewing them.
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. 1st round, 4th overall pick, 1st WR drafted
Imagine taking a Hall of Fame receiver and making his son 3 inches taller and 24 pounds heavier (6'3.25", 209 lbs at the combine) while being arguably being just as fast, and you'll get an idea of how good Marvin Harrison Jr. is. Although he didn't officially test, this year's Biletnikoff Award winner reportedly runs in the high 4.3s with a 3.94 shuttle and 10'8" broad jump, which helped him put up 14 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons.
Harrison's breakout came just a month after he turned 20 as he accounted for 33.33% of Ohio State's receiving touchdowns, 32.57% of their receiving yards, and 28.10% of their receptions in the '22-23 season. Those market shares improved to 53.85% (!!), 35.70%, and 27.35% in the 12 games that he played this past season even with CJ Stroud replaced at quarterback by Kyle McCord, who has since had to transfer to Syracuse. Harrison's efficiency was also outstanding and on the rise with 3.08 and 3.22 yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA) and 3.18 and 3.44 Y/RR (anything over 3 is elite in both metrics).
Harrison is often compared to both AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald, albeit with more speed than both, so it's fitting that he wears the same number as the former (it's pretty cool that he wears #18 in honor of his dad's QB, Peyton Manning) and was drafted to the same team as the latter. Arizona needed a new #1 receiver after the departures of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in back to back years, and they rank 6th in both available targets and available target share from last season. With Kyler Murray another year removed from his torn ACL, the first WR taken in this year's draft will have a more than adequate passer to feed him those vacated looks. I expect big things right out of the gate.
2. Malik Nabers. 1st round, 6th overall pick, 2nd WR drafted
From an analytical perspective, you could argue that Nabers is just as good if not better than Harrison in a lot of ways. Being 11 months younger, Nabers' sophomore season produced a breakout age of 19, even if it was more moderate with his 72 catches for 1,017 and 3 TDs only accounting for 22.36% of LSU's catches, 26.98% of their yards, and 13.04% of their TDs with 2.12 Y/TPA and 2.46 Y/RR.
However, the Tigers exploded in the second year of Mike Denbrock's offensive system. With QB Jayden Daniels winning the Heisman Trophy, Nabers put up 89 catches for 1,569 yards and 14 scores, which was good for 31.12%, 38.54%, and 34.15% market shares (they were 33.73%, 38.54%, and 34.15% before he only played the first half of the bowl game to set the school record for receiving yards). Exploiting defenses with vertical routes out of the slot, his Y/TPA jumped to an outrageous 3.82 to go with an excellent 3.64 Y/RR.
There might be a slight concern that NFL defenses won't be as susceptible to as many big plays as Nabers had in college (2022 Biletnikoff winner and fellow Giants draft pick Jalin Hyatt had a rough transition last season from a somewhat similar slot role), but I learned my lesson from another LSU alum, Justin Jefferson, with putting too much stock into college formations. Nabers is certainly talented enough to win on the outside, and after not testing at the combine, he reportedly ran a 4.38 at his Pro Day with a 42" vertical and 10'9" broad jump at 6'0.25", 199 lbs.
I defer to Harrison's larger pedigree and size when comparing the two, but Nabers would be the WR1 in a lot of other drafts. Between the size, school, and pro team that drafted him, it's hard to ignore the Odell Beckham Jr. similarities, and while that sets a high bar for a rookie season, it's not completely out of the question. The landing spot wasn't the best with New York only ranking 13th in available targets and 11th in target share while overpaying an average QB who tore his ACL last season, Daniel Jones, but I am betting on a blue-chip prospect over temporary situation every day of the week.
3. Rome Odunze. 1st round, 9th overall pick. 3rd WR drafted
Like Nabers, Odunze was a 19 year old sophomore breakout with more of just a decent profile: 23.98% of Washington's catches, 23.28% of their yards, and 36.36% of their TDs in the 9 games that he played with just 1.47 Y/TPA and 1.63 Y/RR. The offense overall improved the next year when Kalen DeBoer took over, with Odunze bumping up to 2.11 and 2.51 in the efficiency metrics but not capturing more of the market share. Unlike the top two on this list, it took a senior season to really get put on the map to the tune of 92 catches for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns. That translated to 2.86, 2.93, and 24.47%/31.81%/34.21% on the advanced side, and it's worth noting how that came with Odunze competing for targets with two other WRs who were Day 2 picks (see below).
At the combine, Odunze showed what kind of competitor that he is by continuing to re-run his three-cone after everyone had left to try to improve on his already strong 6.88 time. At a sturdy 6'2.875", 212 lbs he ran a 4.45 with a 4.03 shuttle and jumps of 39" and 10'4", all strong results. My comparison for Odunze has been Davante Adams given his smooth body control at the catch point, and the rookie ended up being two inches taller but the exact same weight, with similar times to the All-Pro (4.51/6.82) and a vertical that was just a half inch off.
Winding up in Chicago makes for an interesting situation with fellow top-10 pick Caleb Williams walking into one of, if not the best supporting casts that a rookie QB has ever had after being drafted 1st overall. DJ Moore is the incumbent alpha after a career-year, and the Bears also traded for a perennial Pro Bowler, Keenan Allen, after splurging in free agency on a capable pass catching running back, D'Andre Swift.
The Bears are middle of the pack in vacated targets and target share, but the main concern for Odunze might be new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who misused another 1st round WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, last year. I think this year's #9 pick is a little bit of a higher caliber prospect, though, and given the 32 year old Allen's injury history, I have no problem ranking Odunze third here despite the target competition.
4. Xavier Worthy. 1st round, 28th overall pick. 5th WR drafted
I've had my eye on Worthy ever since he led Texas in receiving as an 18 year old true freshman with 12 TDs and nearly 1,000 yards, and the buzz around him only continued after he broke the combine record with a 4.21 40 time and then landed with the best quarterback in the league after a trade up.
It is worth noting that Worthy producing 28.57% of the team's catches, 36.27% of the yards, and 41.38% of the TDs with 2.84 Y/TPA and 2.61 Y/RR as a freshman ended up being his peak in all categories, but it is impressive nonetheless. The 40 time does also require the context of him only weighin 165 lbs at 5'11.25", but the 41" vertical and 10'11 broad jump also demonstrate his explosiveness. Funnily enough, Zachariason compared him to Marquise Brown (5'9.375", 166 lbs) even before they became teammates, which makes sense with the Chiefs wanting to add more speed to finally replace Tyreek Hill.
Brown was only signed to a one-year deal, though, while the back-to-back champions moved up from the 32nd pick to ensure that they got their guy. Kansas City is only 16th in available targets but 11th in percentage of air yards, so Worthy can fill a role for them right away. He can be the long-term deep threat while Rashee Rice works underneath, and that can start right away with Brown currently out. His scary chest injury thankfully didn't end up too serious, but his absence to start the year could allow Worthy to get established early.
5. Brian Thomas, Jr. 1st round, 23rd overall pick. 4th WR drafted
Thomas wasn't someone I was super into early as a one-year wonder, but I've really come around thanks to his immense upside. Despite having to compete with Nabers for targets, BTJ broke out in a big way as a junior, right before turning 21, with 68 catches for 1,177 yards and an NCAA-leading 17 touchdowns. That accounted for market shares of 23.76%, 26.71%, and 38.64% with a strong 2.86 Y/TPA and 2.61 Y/RR.
Loosely compared to DK Metcalf by Scott Barrett for his potential as a vertical threat, Thomas showed off some similar physical tools at the combine with a 6'2.875", 209 lb frame, 4.33 40, 38.5" vertical, and 10'6" broad jump. That is the most imposing size/speed combo of the class, which explains why the Jaguars pounced on him in the 1st even after giving Gabe Davis a notable free agent contract a month prior.
With the departure of Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville ranks 5th in available targets and a tantalizing 2nd in available air yards. Despite Ridley and Trevor Lawrence never quite getting on the same page, the veteran still had 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in his first year back from suspension. That's how good of a role Thomas is walking into, and with his elite athleticism and a little better chemistry, he could help Lawrence take that next step to becoming the star QB that everyone's expected him to become.
6. Keon Coleman. 2nd round, 33rd overall pick. 8th WR drafted
Things get trickier after that clear top-5, in my opinion, so I'm going with the raw potential of Coleman next. After breaking out as a 19 year old sophomore at Michigan State, where he outproduced young Packers standout Jayden Reed, Coleman transferred to Florida State and helped them to an undefeated regular season last year. The quarterback situation contributed to his catches and yards going down from 58 and 798 to 50 and 658, but he did bump his touchdowns from 7 to 11, which accounted for 45.83% of the team's aerial scores. Somewhat surprisingly given his size, Coleman also operated as the punt returner and averaged an excellent 12 yards on 25 chances. His sophomore yardage share of 27.71% and 2.07 Y/RR were solid enough as peaks, although his Y/TPA never reaching 2 is a bit of a concern.
Coleman's 4.61 40 time isn't going to wow anyone, either, but it's not a killer at 6'3.25" and 213 lbs, especially when you consider his 38" and 10'7" jumps. This could be an indicator that he might be best used as a big slot rather than on the outside, and Reception Perception's Matt Harmon even offered a young JuJu Smith-Schuster as a comparable. However, that doesn't seem to be what the early plans for him will be based on his exciting landing spot in Buffalo.
It was pretty odd that the Bills not only allowed traded down to allow their playoff rivals pick Worthy (to swap #133 and #248 for #95 and #221), but they also traded down a second time from #32 to #33 (just to swap a 6th for a 5th). That one slot drop from the 1st to the 2nd means that they won't have a 5th-year option for Coleman if the pans out like they hope...but that's a discussion for another time. The key here is that after trading away Stefon Diggs, Buffalo ranks 2nd in available targets and 1st in air yards. Of course, third-year breakout candidate Khalil Shakir is sure to see a bump in opportunity after leading the team with 536 yards over their final 10 games, but he'll likely operate out of the slot. Second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid will also earn more targets while flexing out into the slot at times along with free agent addition Curtis Samuel, who could move around the formation in different roles. The opportunity on the outside to be the big play receiver is right there for Coleman, though, and there's certainly a chance that he ends up being Josh Allen's go-to target, particularly in the red zone with that catch radius.
7. Ladd McConkey. 2nd round, 34th overall pick. 9th WR drafted
This is another profile that didn't really stand out to me until doing some more digging because at first glance McConkey topped out at just 58 catches for 762 yards and 7 TDs during his breakout redshirt sophomore season as a 20 year old. And his market share numbers didn't paint a much better picture, either. Injuries, Georgia's offensive system, and being deliberate with his usage contributed to that, but he had strong Y/RR numbers of 2.71, 2.16, and finally 3.26 as a part time player this past season. The curious thing is that McConkey was efficient whenever he was on the field, but not playing every down led to Y/TPA rates of 1.10, 1.55, and 1.85, which is a bigger split from his Y/RR than you'll notice in other profiles here. The fact that he also served as a return man (13.3 average on 21 career punts) and occasional runner (4 TDs and 216 yards on just 13 career carries) could explain that.
Not being the biggest guy in the world (5'11.625", 186 lbs) and, let's face it, being white might make you think that McConkey is a stereotypical slot-only player and punt returner, but he can operate on the outside just as effectively. He ran 4.39 with 36" and 10'4" jumps at the combine before posting an elite 3.97 shuttle and 6.72 3-cone at his pro day, so the athleticism is certainly there. Harmon gave him the honor of a Tyler Lockett comparison, which is a saying a lot if you've followed Reception Perception over the years, so I'm a believer in his versatility.
The Chargers swapped the 110th pick for the 137th in order to move up three spots and secure McConkey's services, so I'd expect them to have a role in mind for him early. That's even more true when you remember that the departures of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett mean that L.A. has the most vacated targets in the league. There is the caveat that they have an entirely new coaching staff this year, and everyone knows that head coach Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman want to pound the rock like in their 49ers days together. Combine that with the fact that McConkey is a touch older than his peers, turning 23 in November, and there might not be as much untapped upside as those around him. Still, Justin Herbert is the best pure passer that Harbaugh and Roman have had, so they shouldn't completely take the air out of the ball. And McConkey will be battling Josh Palmer to be his #1 target, so there's still a lot to like.
8a. Ja'Lynn Polk. 2nd round, 37th overall pick. 10th WR drafted
8b. Javon Baker. 4th round, 110th overall pick. 18th WR drafted
I'm cheating a bit here by smuggling two WRs into one spot, but this is a fun situation to watch after New England drafted Drake Maye 3rd overall to be the QB of the future. It was a bit shocking that they traded with L.A. and didn't just take McConkey themselves, but after taking Polk with the resulting pick, I really liked them doubling up at the position later with Baker.
After spending his freshman year at Texas Tech, it took Polk a while to establish himself at Washington with Odunze and Jalen McMillan there, leading to a late breakout as a 21 year old senior. It was a strong campaign with 69 catches for 1,159 yards and 9 scores, and that accounted for 23.68% of the team's TDs to go with 2.29 Y/RR. Although the 2.02 Y/TPA isn't as strong and the counting stats are a little inflated by playing in 15 games thanks to UW's playoff run, that teammate competition is just as important context.
I'm a little worried that it took McMillan's injury this past season for Polk to really step up, but the physical traits are certainly there to help quell concerns. At 6'1.375", 203 lbs, he ran a solid 4.52 with strong jumps of 37.5" and 10'9", and as a reliable target with strong hands, ESPN's Mina Kimes compared him to former Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers even before the draft.
Baker, on the other hand, is the home run swing and potential steal in the 4th. A former 4-star recruit for Alabama, he also dealt with strong teammate competition and eventually transferred, and after breaking out as a 20 year old junior in his first year at UCF, he exploded as a senior for 52 catches, 1,139 yards, and 7 TDs. That accounted for 22.71% of their catches, an impressive 33.86% of the yards, and a strong 29.17% of the TDs with elite Y/TPA and Y/RR of 3.11 and 3.21, respectively. With that reputation as an explosive playmaker after averaging 21.9 yards per catch last year, it was a little disappointing to see him run a 4.54. He did it at 6'1.5", 202 lbs, though, and still had a good vertical of 37" to go with a 10'1" broad jump.
New England ranks 8th in available target share on 4for4's list, and that was even before the recent release of Smith-Schuster. There's a new system in place with Alex Van Pelt as the new OC (and of course with Jerod Mayo taking over for Bill Belichick at HC), so we don't know what this offense will look like yet. However, we do know that there will be opportunities, with last year's rookie standout, DeMario Douglas, the only real competition at WR. He could be limited to the slot, too, so both Polk and Baker could contribute on the outside sooner rather than later.
9. Xavier Legette. 1st round, 32nd overall pick. 7th WR drafted
I was really tempted to have Legette higher, especially since he was the last of the 1st rounders, but missing a chunk of training camp with a foot injury added to an already risky profile. He was a one-year wonder in college and didn't breakout until he was already 22 in his fifth year of eligibility thanks to COVID. New offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains absolutely unleashed him in that one year, though, with 71 catches for 1,255 yards, and 7 TDs in 12 games. That resulted in great market share numbers of 25.09%, 37.62% (!), and 33.33% to go with the type of Y/TPA and Y/RR we're looking for at 3.05 and 3.15.
Legette also has tantalizing physical tools with a running back's build of 6'1", 221 lbs. Despite that weight, he blazed a 4.39 40 and put up an incredible 40" vertical along with a 10'6" broad jump. That explosiveness with the ball in his hands showed as a kick returner with a 26.4 career average on 29 chances, and being a fellow South Carolina guy, there's the inevitable comparison to Deebo Samuel. I think Legette is a little bit more of a deep threat as a long-strider with a couple of inches on Samuel, but there are some similarities with the overall frame and dynamism.
The Panthers moved up one spot in the aforementioned trade with the Bills to make him a 1st rounder and potentially be a big play machine to pair long-term with last year's #1 pick, Bryce Young. This, after already trading for more of a separation specialist in Diontae Johnson and hiring QB whisperer Dave Canales as head coach. Carolina is middle of the pack in available targets but eighth in air yards%, so there is should be some chances for Legette to have some explosive games.
10. Luke McCaffrey. 3rd round, 100th overall pick. 16th WR drafted
The fourth of Ed McCaffrey's sons (and third to make the NFL after Max and of course Christian) is more of a projection here than some other candidates. Luke was a 4-star quarterback recruit at Nebraska before transferring to Rice and eventually converting to his father's position of WR in his fourth year of college. He immediately led the team in catches and was second in yards and scores before leading in all categories this past year. The 32.04%/29.96%/28.57% and 26.49%/30.23%/44.83% market shares in each year were strong along with the 2.25 and 2.11 Y/RR, although the 2.06 and 2.30 Y/TPA were less noteworthy.
Still, the context of those being his first two years in the role can't be forgotten, and it makes his draft day age of 23 less concerning. There's still some untapped potential here as he's clearly a great athlete with those bloodlines, versatility, and his combine showing. At 6'1.625", 198 lbs, he ran 4.46 with a strong 4.02 shuttle, great 6.64 3-cone, and solid 36" and 10'1" jumps.
What really landed McCaffrey in this coveted last spot to earn a full writeup from me (a real honor, I know) is that he ended up a Day 2 pick for the Commanders. That's more draft capital than you would spend on someone that you think is a project at the position, and they could have plans for him immediately with the new coaching staff. Washington already ranked third in available targets and fifth in air yards BEFORE the late trade of Jahan Dotson, and perhaps just as enticingly, McCaffrey projects to operate out of the slot for them after playing there 71.2% of the time in college. That's important because in addition to running an up-tempo scheme, new OC Kliff Kingsbury really likes to run 11-personnel and pepper the slot with targets, a la Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch. Terry McLaurin will be the top option for #2 pick Daniels, but I could easily see McCaffrey becoming the next option while someone like Dyami Brown runs the clear out routes from the other outside spot.
Honorable Mentions
- Ricky Pearsall is the only 1st rounder not on this list, but that's not to say he's a bad prospect. He's a little older but had strong Y/RR numbers and pretty good market shares while testing out of the gym. There aren't going to be many opportunities in San Francisco this year, ranking 31st in available targets. Then there's the fact that he missed a lot of camp with a shoulder injury and that he was shot in an attempted robbery last week. Thankfully he didn't suffer major damage and could only miss four games while on the NFI list, but he's more of a down the line WR for them who could bring some of what Emmanuel Sanders did there in the past. 4th round teammate Jacob Cowing was a favorite sleeper of mine after he broke out as an 18 year old true freshman and had strong metrics every year. He'll be their punt returner and gadget guy who could become a nice role player in future years.
- 2nd rounder Adonai Mitchell has gotten a lot of hype from film experts, but he doesn't bring a strong production profile. His 11 TDs in his one season at Texas after transferring from Georgia was his one good market share (44%) across all stats in his three years of college, and neither his Y/TPA nor Y/RR even came close to 2.0 in any season. He is a hell of an athlete, though, as he ran 4.34 with a 39.5" vertical and eye-pooping 11'4" broad jump at 6'2.25", 205 lbs. It seemed like he'd take Alec Pierce's spot as the downfield option, but Josh Downs' training camp injury allowed Mitchell to get some reps in the slot, which could help him out. Michael Pittman Jr's presence, Downs' eventual return, and Anthony Richardson's still developing accuracy are impediments, but Mitchell is someone to watch as a potential win for the scouts over the stats.
- I think Jalen McMillan could be an eventual steal in the 3rd round after an injury-plagued season. He was right there with Odunze in production during their sophomore and junior years before that, and he had great combine numbers. Interestingly, Chris Godwin came up as a comp from Ben Solak at The Ringer, and now McMillan is taking over a spot on the outside as Tampa Bay is expected to move Godwin back to his more effective slot role. That's funny since McMillan was great out of the slot in college, but it's great that he's already shown the versatility to move around the formation.
- The Jets trading up in the 3rd for Malachi Corley is intriguing, but he's still a bit raw, relying a lot on after the catch juice. He had pretty solid market shares as a junior and senior along with good Y/RR marks, although his Y/TPA lagged behind. There might not be much of an opportunity immediately in New York, especially since they signed Mike Williams, so he's just on the HM list.
- Jermaine Burton has generated some buzz as a 3rd rounder with some explosiveness after a 2.78 Y/TPA and 2.75 Y/RR with much improved yardage and TD shares last year. The Bengals have the fourth-most targets available with the departure of Tyler Boyd, so there's a chance that Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins take some of his old slot work with Burton getting run on deep routes outside. Andrei Iosivas, a 6th-round sleeper out of Princeton last year, appears to be ahead in the pecking order, though, and he could be a more natural replacement for Boyd.
- Troy Franklin had a shocking fall before the Broncos finally traded up in the 4th to pair him with his college QB last year, #12 pick Bo Nix. He's a great vertical threat who broke out as a 19 year old sophomore and had 2.93 Y/TPA and 3.22 Y/RR last year along with good market share numbers over the past two campaigns. There are a lot of bodies in the Denver WR room, though, and he might need a year to develop after only weighing 176 lbs at the combine.
- Last but certainly not least, Malik Washington was a great value for the Dolphins in the 6th round. He may not be quite as fast as the rest of the roster with "only" a 4.47 40, but he had strong production metrics on an otherwise bad Virginia team last year after some good seasons at Northwestern before that. His 110 catches for 1,426 yards, and 9 scores translated to 44.35%/47.38%/47.37% market shares with a 3.60 Y/TPA and 3.15 Y/RR. He's only 5'8.5", 191 lbs, but he could finally give Miami a good #3 WR, especially with free agent addition Odell Beckham Jr. on the PUP list for at least four games.
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