Saturday, September 28, 2024

Digging into the Knicks-Wolves Blockbuster

Knicks receive:
Karl-Anthony Towns$49,205,800$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192
Draft rights to 2023 #31 pick James Nnjai

Timberwolves receive:
Julius Randle$28,939,680$30,935,520
Donte DiVincenzo$11,445,000$11,990,000$12,535,000
Keita Bates-Diop$2,654,644
2025 Pistons 1st round pick (via Knicks, protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:
DaQuan Jeffries$2,425,404$2,743,776$3,080,917
Charlie Brown Jr$2,237,692$2,546,673$2,874,432
Duane Washington Jr$2,162,607$2,349,576$2,667,944
2025 2nd round pick (Lesser of Nuggets or 76ers, via Wolves)
2026 Warriors 2nd round pick (via Knicks)
2031 Knicks 2nd
$7.2 million in cash considerations

Talk about a Friday night surprise from Shams. I'm still adding updates to the Offseason Tracker, but a stunning blockbuster at this point in the calendar deserves its own post.

On the one hand, there have been some signs that each of these teams could make this type of move. Everyone's been anticipating Minnesota making a cost-cutting move due to extensions for Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels all kicking in this year, particularly with their ownership situation in flux; there have been rumors of NY's interest in Towns ever since his former agent at CAA, Leon Rose, took over basketball operations in 2020; and there's been a lot of speculation about Randle's future ahead of his potential free agency next summer, especially after the team's success while he was injured. But on the other hand, there were not any recent hints of this major of a move for either side as training camps are set to get underway.

Both teams being above the First Apron makes this stupidly complicated as neither side can take in more salary than they're sending out (a repeated issue this summer that seems like an oversight in the new CBA), so that's where Charlotte comes in. DaQuan Jeffries is reportedly being sign-and-traded to them, and similarly to Shake Milton as part of the Mikal Bridges trade, it's all but assured that only the first year of mandatory three years in a S&T is guaranteed. Based on the current known pieces involved, that means that Jeffries could get a nice chunk of change since the difference between Towns' salary and the sum of Randle, DiVincenzo, and Bates-Diop is currently around $6 million. He won't get all of that, but after having a $2,463,946 team option declined, anything here is quite the coup.

Even with Bates-Diop a late addition to the initial reports, the Knicks will still be bumping up against the Second Apron now, and a couple of the non-guaranteed deals they recently signed will likely have to be waived and replaced by a rookie minimum. This does open up a couple of roster spots that had guaranteed money, so at least one of those veterans has a little better of a shot to make the team now.

It's a lot of hoops for the Knicks to jump through, and they are also including one of their extra 1st rounders to get the deal done, albeit a heavily protected one that has a decent likelihood of becoming a 2nd. Sending out one of the 'Nova Knicks before DiVincenzo, Bridges, Jalen Brunson, and Josh Hart could all play together is a bummer, but they had solid perimeter depth to absorb the loss. In return, they upgrade from one former Kentucky big man to another, and it's a homecoming of sorts for the New Jersey native, Towns.

As mentioned above, KAT is just starting his hefty 4 year, $220 million extension now, but this is why Brunson took the team-friendly extension to allow New York to make this type of financial swing. Randle was a good player for them who was crucial in their rebuild to get to this point, but the acquisitions of Brunson, Anunoby, and now Bridges meant that having offense run through him in the mid-post wasn't likely to be as needed. Towns can instead provide outside shooting along with interior scoring, and while the idea of small-ball lineups with Randle at center were intriguing, Towns has more size and a ton of experience there, of course. I'm guessing that they'll open the season starting Brunson, Hart (or possibly Miles McBride), Bridges, Anunoby, and Towns, and then whenever Mitchell Robinson gets healthy, they could explore bigger lineups. Coach Tom Thibodeau previously had Towns in Minnesota, so he'll already have a good idea of what teammate combinations to surround him with.

That brings us to that Minnesota side of the equation, and it's the end of an era after they picked KAT #1 overall in 2015. He endured a ton of losing and turnover around him while remaining an upstart member of the community by all accounts, so it is unfortunate that he was apparently blindsided by this move. It's also not a great look that the financial side is likely a large factor in it after they just had their first playoff series wins in 20 years.
Dropping Randle into Towns' spot feels like a clunky fit with that doesn't provide nearly as much spacing next to Edwards and Rudy Gobert. And as Edwards' star continues to rise, you'd imagine that the offense will continue to run through him more and more along with point guard, Mike Conley, which might not leave a ton of freedom for Randle. After the veteran power forward couldn't reach an extension with the Knicks, which contributed to this move, I do not expect the cash-strapped Wolves to extend him or re-sign him if he opts out next summer.

Adding DiVincenzo does provide another great sixth man to go with the Sixth Man of the Year, Naz Reid, who can also opt out after this season and is a key factor in the decision to make this move, per Jon Krawczynski. Bates-Diop could also give them some minutes at forward in his return to the team that originally drafted him, so their depth should be a strength heading into the year. After sending out yet another future 1st during the draft to take Rob Dillingham, it is also helpful to add some draft capital here, even if it's highly protected.

Overall, this is a pretty fascinating deal on multiple levels, and I can see where each side is coming from. We're still waiting on the final details (the Hornets could end up the biggest winners for leveraging their cap flexibility), but I lean more towards the Knicks side as things stand. There's certainly risk involved, especially with a contract that large, but they added more versatility and upside to an already dangerous rotation. The flexibility that Timberwolves gained could also make it worth it for them, though, even if it is a tough pill to swallow.

10/1 Update:
Shams reports that in addition to Jeffries, Brown and Washington are also being sign-and-traded from New York to Charlotte so that they're sending out enough salary to match Towns' salary. All three are assuredly going to be for the minimum with just the first year guaranteed of the required three-year pacts necessary for sign-and-trades, but after the latter two were only on Two-Way contracts last year, this was a quite a break just for being a warm body that was on the roster last year.

The funny thing is that Washington already signed with a Serbian team, Partizan, and Keith Smith reports that it took a lot of creativity to work out the timing of his buyout there to facilitate this. I would guess that he gets waived immediately to re-sign with Partizan for their upcoming Euroleague games.

The Hornets are getting two 2nd rounders from the Knicks and one from the Wolves to take on this money along with $7.2 million in cash considerations (per Bobby Marks), and somewhat surprisingly, the draft rights that they're sending out are for the first pick of the 2nd round in last year's draft, Nnaji. He's a raw big man playing in Spain but could end up being more than just a throw-in down the line.

Charlotte is over the cap, so I think that they might be the first team to use the new rule allowing the use of the Room Mid-Level Exception to absorb salaries in a trade instead of just signing a free agent. 

10/2 Update:
The trade is finally official, and I updated the salaries above because I was slightly off on Jeffries' years of service when calculating his salary. Amusingly, Fred Katz reports that each player Charlotte is receiving signed contracts for one (1) dollar more than their minimum contract due to the rule about not being able to stack more than one minimum to aggregate salary for trades.

Yossi Gozlan also adds that all in total, this trade is costing the Knicks about $45 million between the luxury tax, cash sent to the Hornets and Partizan, and Randle's trade bonus. So the added risk with the upside also adds a high cost.

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