Friday, October 4, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-4 2024

After a quick detour to the NBA side last week due to the stunning trade that went down, Gio-ing Deep is back with more usage notes around the NFL! The sample size is getting a little larger now, so there are more takeaways that you can start to believe in from the data. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The 4-0 Vikings are one of the best surprises of the league so far, thanks in large part to Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones being tremendous free agent signings. The former leads the league in touchdown passes with 11 despite being just 22nd in pass attempts, and his 8.8 yards per attempt ranks 2nd in the league behind only the player he backed up last season, Brock Purdy. Darnold smartly joined a team that runs a similar scheme to what he was in last year, so he's hit the ground running with the kind of efficiency that the 49ers typically have. His current 10.4% touchdown percentage is bound to regress (league average is usually in the 4-5% range), but he can continue to lead a good offense, especially with Jordan Addison back now and TJ Hockenson opening up his practice window to return from injury. Combine that with Darnold's underrated rushing ability, and he could be a viable fantasy quarterback all season.
    Jones is already proving to be one of the best fantasy values of the year now that he's fully healthy again. He hasn't run for a TD since the opener and only added one more through the air so far, yet he's a top-10 running back (18.1 points per game) thanks to his typical efficiency and strong receiving role. After only getting 2 targets in Week 1 due to the blowout nature of the game, Jones has had at least 5 targets every week since, and he has a 19.19% target share on the season. Seeing 65.42% of the snaps and and 68.82% of the RB carries aren't quite as strong of rates, but those did bump up this past week to 82.35% and 88%. Minnesota might've simply been trying to feed him in his return to Green Bay for a #revengegame, but it at least shows that the volume potential is there.

  • On the other side of that game, Dontayvion Wicks had the breakout game that his truthers have been waiting for since best ball draft szn with 5 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. There is important context that the Packers had to throw the ball 54 times as they fell behind 28-0, and Christian Watson only played 9 snaps due to unfortunately suffering a high-ankle sprain on one of Jordan Love's three interceptions.

    Wicks has shown that he has the talent to take advantage of this opportunity, though, going back to last year when he averaged 2.04 yards per route run as a 5th round rookie. I touched on Green Bay's WR splits after Week 1, and Watson and Wicks were mostly sharing the flanker role over the first three weeks with Watson playing 58.5% of the snaps, running a route on 66.67% of the drop backs, and seeing a 10.94% target share compared to 48%/46.91%/14.06% for Wicks. Then with the injury this past week, Wicks shot up to a 76.32% snap rate, 80.36% route participation, and 24.07% target share en route to 24.8 fantasy points. If he continues to produce, he might not give this role up.

  • The Colts WR group is another one to pay attention to now that Josh Downs has returned from his own high-ankle sprain. Primarily limited to 3-receiver sets as a slot player (62 of 73 snaps there), he's only played 59.84% of snaps but run routes on 70.91% of drop backs and seen a massive 30.43% target share through two games. Or to put it another way, that's 14 targets out of just 39 routes. If Joe Flacco starts in place of the banged up Anthony Richardson this week, Downs could be in store for another big day after putting up 22.2 points with the more accurate veteran playing most of Week 4.

    The most notable change among this group is that Downs' return has really limited opportunities for 2nd round rookie Adonai Mitchell. He's gone from 61.39%/70.49%/18% rates the first two games to 16.39%/20%/8.7% these past two. As I mentioned in my rookie WRs piece, he switched to getting slot reps in training camp when Downs got hurt (54.84% slot rate the first two games), but I think he'll supplant Alec Pierce on the outside in the long run. Pierce connected on a couple of big plays with Richardson in the first two weeks to average 19.05 points with 90.1%/88.52%/20% rates, but he's down to 3.65 points with just an 8.7% target share over the past two despite still having an 80.33% snap rate and 83.64% route participation.

  • Speaking of big plays, Jameson Williams has also had some interesting swings so far. I almost wrote about him after Week 2, and he's come down to earth to an extent since then. Overall on the season he's played 85.71% of the Lions' snaps, ran a route on 93.48% of the drop backs, and earned 20.49% of the targets to average 14 points. However, Williams had 9 and 11 targets in the first two weeks for a 24.69% target share while it's been 3 and 2 targets for a 12.2% target share over the past two.

    It's worth noting that Detroit has had much more run-heavy game plans over this span with just 22 and 19 targets each game after, but that's why I focus more on target share instead of raw totals. And of course, Williams turned one of those two targets into a 70 yard touchdown this week because he has game-changing speed. Just know that a 9 yard game like in Week 3 will happen sometimes, and this note is just to show that his role has the type of volatility you'd expect despite the start of the season indicating otherwise. He also received a carry in each of the first three games, so there's always the chance that he could break one of those for a big gain as a fun part of this roller coaster.

    This recent Detroit offensive approach has also resulted in Jahmyr Gibbs surprisingly seeing zero targets in each of the last two weeks. This comes after he had a strong 14.74% target share as a rookie and 16.05% rate in the first two games. This hasn't really affected his scoring so far as he's been between 16.3 and 19.8 points in every game, but he's been living off of efficiency and touchdowns. That includes an awesome hook and ladder that hilariously resulted in Gibbs having a stat line of 0 targets, 0 catches, 20 receiving yards, and a receiving TD. The efficiency is one thing, as we know he's a special talent, but this usage makes production hard to maintain. Splitting the backfield has resulted in Gibbs only having a 54.14% snap rate, 46.15% RB carries share, 50% route participation, and 10.66% target share share on the season. Scoring four times in four games isn't exactly a sustainable pace even in this offensive machine, so hopefully this is just a blip on the radar and more passes start heading his way.

  • One last split backfield that I want to touch on is that of the Bengals. Free agent addition Zack Moss was the clear starter in the first three weeks, playing 74.01% of the snaps, getting 70.21% of the RB carries, running a route on 58.97% of drop backs, and earning 10.89% of the targets to average 13.5 points. Second year 'back Chase Brown's rates were 25.42%/29.79%/19.66%/5.94% for just 5.77 points, and on a potentially related note, Cincinnati was 0-3.

    Things shifted this past week in their first win. Moss still led the way but saw the his lead go down to a 59.7% snap rate, 50% of the RB carries, a 54.55% route participation, and 13.33% target share compared to 40.3%, 50%, 33.33%, and 10% for the more explosive Brown. Moss caught a short (and risky) TD to end the first half en route to 17.8 points, and Brown interestingly got both goal line TDs to finish with 23.2 points. Perhaps it was just the game script against a lesser opponent leading to more runs overall (30, after averaging 15.67 the first three games) to allow more of a rotation, but I'm definitely keeping an eye on Brown's opportunities going forward.
Posted by at
Labels:

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)