Friday, October 11, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 5 2024

Well, last week's post ended up cursing the Minnesota guys while Dontayvion Wicks couldn't cash in on more great usage (28% target share!), but Josh Downs and Chase Brown continued to earn more work. A few of the guys for this week are on bye, so they won't have go through those kind of swings for at least one weekend.
As always when looking at notable stats across the league, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now is that the #3 overall pick, Drake Maye, is making his first start for the Patriots. The situation around him doesn't project to be great due to the offensive line, but I'm curious to see how their 2nd rounder, Ja'Lynn Polk, does with this change. After mixing in as a part-time player the first three weeks, Polk has played 91.13% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.11% of the drop backs, and earned a 20.97% target share over the last two games. He's only been able to turn that into 8.3 total points, but if he gets 6 or 7 targets again from Maye rather than Jacoby Brissett, maybe better results are on the way. I dug into Polk as a prospect right before the season here.

    Staying in New England, head coach Jerod Mayo made a big deal last week about Rhamondre Stevenson no longer starting due to fumbling in each of the first four games. While Antonio Gibson technically got the start, Stevenson still played the exact same 28 snaps (46.67%) as Gibson and led the team with 12 carries (66.67% of the running back share). Gibson ran a route on 43.24% of drop backs compared to 32.43%, but he only finished with one target to Stevenson's 4 (13.33% target share). Stevenson did get ruled out this morning due to a foot injury, so we'll see how much of the workload Gibson carries this week.
  • I wrote about the Rams wide receivers after Week 1 in light of Puka Nacua's injury, and then Cooper Kupp went down the following week to change things again. Over the past three weeks without him, Tutu Atwell has stepped up with point totals of 13.3, 12.2, and 12.5 while having a 81.73% snap rate, 87.16% route participation, and 21.65% target share. The interesting thing is that he also got off to a strong start last year when Kupp was out before fading, but Atwell plays a different role in the offense with just 34.46% of his snaps in the slot this year after 39.86% last year compared to 75.24% and 65.25% for Kupp. With the All-Pro potentially coming back after this week's bye, we'll see if Atwell can sustain his effectiveness this time.

    6th round rookie Jordan Whittington has also emerged as a piece of this passing attack to keep an eye on. He put up 12.2 points with 96.72%/96.88%/27.59% rates in Week 4 and then followed it up with 15.9 points on 92.31%/85.42%/22.22% in Week 5. L.A. has lined him up all over the formation, including a handful of snaps out of the backfield, so they could keep him in their plans as a weapon to still use even after the stars get healthy.

  • Another WR who has come on of late is Jalen Tolbert. After not needing to be too involved in the Week 1 blowout of the Browns, he's averaged 13.63 points over the last four weeks with an 80.5% snap rate, 87.06% route participation, and 17.09% target share. After Brandin Cooks went on IR last week due to a knee infection, Tolbert immediately had career-highs of 10 targets, 7 catches, and 87 yards along with the game-winning touchdown. With some more strong weeks, he could take charge of the #2 WR role even after Cooks returns.
  • One last WR filling in for an injured teammate is JuJu Smith-Schuster, who turned back the clock on Monday Night Football while playing the Rashee Rice role. Of course, that was Smith-Schuster's previous role in 2022 during his first Chiefs stint before Rice was drafted. During this first full game without the second-year star, who is unfortunately going to miss the rest of the season, the veteran scored 20 points with a 23.53% target share.

    Before getting carried away with expectations too much, it's worth pointing out that he only played 66.67% of the snaps and, more importantly, ran a route on 65.91% of the drop backs as the Chiefs continue to frustratingly rotate their skill players. Maybe the bye this week will allow them to fully transition to using Smith-Schuster more after he was a late signing in camp.

    Kareem Hunt was an even more recent signing and another member of the 2017 draft who looked good for Kansas City on MNF. After rookie Carson Steele started but fumbled on the opening drive in Week 4, Hunt went on to lead the team in carries that game with 14 (66.67% of the RB share) while playing 45.16% of the snaps in his season debut. This past week, Hunt became a full-blown workhorse with 27 carries (84.38%) while playing 63.10% of the snaps

    Part of that was due to game script with the Chiefs leading most of the way and running a ridiculous 84 plays compared to just 53 for the Saints, but they clearly trust Hunt. He may be wearing a different number now, but he knows the offense after starting his career there. He only had 1 target for a 2.94% target share, but that number was 10.71% in his first game. Put it all together, and he will definitely be valuable while Isiah Pacheco is on IR.
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