Home Underdogs
Bengals +6.5 versus Steelers
It's been hard to trust Pittsburgh's offense laying any points let alone a touchdown on the road, and now they're missing their two best players in JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner. This could be Cincy's chance to get Zac Taylor his first win.
Jets +3.5 versus Raiders
Don't look now, but Sam Darnold and New York have played well the past couple of weeks. That was against week competition from the NFC LEast, but Oakland's defense can also be beat to keep this game interesting as a 10:00 AM game West Coast time.
Rams +3.5 versus Ravens
LA's defense has been playing great since acquiring Jalen Ramsey, so give me the points and home team in what should be a tightly contested affair on Monday night.
Road Underdogs
Dolphins +10.5 at Browns
Miami let me down last week after they had been playing competitive ball, but this is still too many points for an inconsistent team like Cleveland to be laying, especially with their best defensive player suspended indefinitely. I will say that this could be the blowup spot for Odell Beckham Jr. after he looked on the verge of a breakout game last week, so that does have me worried.
Buccaneers +4.5 at Falcons
Is Atlanta's newfound defense for real after shaking up coaching responsibilities around the bye week? Maybe. Tampa tends to play better on the road, though, so I'll take the points in a tough division game.
Panthers +9.5 at Saints
The other battle of NFC South teams has an even larger spread, and it may be justified with the way Kyle Allen turned the ball over last week. Carolina is too talented of a team to be getting this many points, though, and their pass rush is one of the best Drew Brees has faced this year.
Jaguars +3.5 at Titans
I'm trying not to overreact to Jacksonville's disappointing defensive showing last week, and this game should provide a better game script that lets them get Leonard Fournette going on the ground.
Road Favorites
Lions -3.5 at Redskins
Dwayne Haskins just doesn't look ready, which is understandable given his lack of experience, and Jeff Driskel has kept Detroit competitive. Laying more than a field goal is a little surprising for a suspect defense, but I don't have any faith in Washington at this point.
Home Favorites
Texans -3.5 versus Colts
Welp, I had the winning team right; they just fell a half point shy.
Bills -4.5 versus Broncos
I've gone back and forth on this one, and if it was another point higher I would probably go with Denver. Buffalo's defense is good enough that they can take care of business at home against Brandon Allen.
Bears -6.5 versus Giants
This line being so high is kind of crazy, but Chicago's defense could cover it by themselves against Daniel Jones. New York's defense is soft enough that it can get offenses back on track, too.
Patriots -6.5 versus Cowboys
Another surprisingly high spread, but New England's defense fears no one, not even the league leader in passing yards. Dallas giving up 55 points over the past two weeks could bode well for the Pats offense that badly needs Isaiah Wynn coming back at left tackle this week.
Eagles -1.5 versus Seahawks
Even coming off of a bye, Seattle has a couple of key players like Jadeveon Clowney and Tyler Lockett banged up, and at some point their luck in close games will regress to the mean. Seven of their eight wins have been by a touchdown or less, including back to back overtime wins, compared to Philly being 2-3 in such games. I'll take the home team in a close one.
49ers -3.5 versus Packers
Winning by more than a field goal against an 8-2 team coming off of a bye might be asking a lot, but San Francisco should be getting George Kittle back for this key game in the NFC playoff picture at least. I'd be more concerned if Green Bay was more consistent, especially in their usage of Aaron Jones. It's felt apparent to basically everyone but the Packers' coaches the last couple of years that he clearly makes the offense more dynamic, and Bill Barnwell backed that up with evidence that his presence on the field
essentially transforms them from the 25th best offense to #1. We'll see if they finally commit to him as a true workhorse coming out of the bye.
Last week: 10-4
Season total: 90-72
