2026 NBA Offseason Tracker

I guess it's that time of year already! I typically make this post after the NBA draft, but now that deals started pouring in over the weekend, I'm starting now and will just add draft day moves in here.

This will be constantly updated throughout the summer, so I'll be adding the latest news at the top to be readily available upon revisiting the page instead of always having to scroll down. Or in other words, it goes in chronological order from the bottom up.

As usual, players already under contract have their figures listed based on Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com while salaries in bold italics are my own estimates based on reported numbers and the standard 5% or 8% raises that the teams could give. Salaries are also color coded if they are a player option, a team option, not fully guaranteed, or a "mutual option" (a player option that's not fully guaranteed) based on the reporting, with parentheses to credit whoever broke the news and when.

6/30 update: The NBA officially announced that the salary cap for this season is $164,961,000, which is slightly lower than the $165 million that was projected. The luxury tax line, First Apron, and Second Apron are subsequently $200,428,000, $209,015,000, and $221,686,000, respectively. 

That means these are the maximum starting salaries and total possible contracts based on years of experience:

• 6 or fewer years (25% of the cap): $41,240,250 for up to 4 years, $177,333,075 with a new team or 5 years, $239,193,450 with their previous team.
• 7-9 years (30%): $49,488,300 for up to 4 years, $212,799,690 with a new team or 5 years, $287,032,140 with their previous team.
• 10+ years (35%): $57,736,350 for up to 4 years, $248,266,305 with a new team or 5 years, $334,870,830 with their previous team.

And the amount available for the various exceptions can go up to the following starting salaries and totals:

• Full Mid-Level Exception (MLE): $15,044,000 for up to 4 years, $64,689,200
• Taxpayer MLE: $6,064,000 for up to 2 years, $12,431,200
• Room Mid-Level Exception: $9,366,000 for up to 3 years, $29,502,900
• Bi-Annual Exception: $5,477,000 for up to 2 years, $11,227,850 (can only be used every other year)
• Minimum Exception: a $2,449,421 cap hit, aka the minimum for players with two years of experience, as long as it's a one year deal. The league subsidizes the cap hit and pays the difference between that and their actual salary that they earn based on years of experience.

Now back to the deals:

Hezonja signs with the Cavaliers: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/26)

Mario Hezonja

$2,449,421

Having five years of NBA experience, the European wing will make just under $2.85 million with the subsidized cap hit above on the one year minimum in his return to the league. Hezonja has played the past six years overseas and excelled the past four seasons in particular with Real Madrid, where he just won the MVP of the Spanish ACB league. His Euroleague numbers weren't quite as efficient, but overall in 80 games across all competitions last season, he averaged 15.04 points , 4.35 rebounds, 2.15 assists, and 0.84 steals against 1.76 turnovers in only 23.15 minutes with 44.39%/33.41%/84.82% shooting while getting up 5.5 threes.

It's worth keeping in mind that even the stars don't typically high minutes in those leagues, but he had similar stats the prior year. Hezonja shot a little better in his first two years when he wasn't as heavily relied upon, and in total over his 324 games with Real Madrid these last four years, he averaged 12.88 points, 4.37 rebounds, 1.43 assists, and 0.85 steals against 1.44 turnovers in 22.87 minutes with 45.32%/36.23%/84.55% shooting while attempting 5.04 threes. Now 31, taking a chance on the former #5 overall pick could be well worth it on just a minimum contract like this.

Bufkin signs with the Pelicans: 1 year deal (Scotto 7/25)

Kobe Bufkin

$2,449,421

There were no financial details reported, so I'm just going with the minimum for now. Having three years of experience, the backup guard will make just over $2.5 million with the subsidized cap hit above on the one year minimum. Bufkin has disappointed since being the 15th overall pick three years ago but only turns 23 in September, and New Orleans needs to try to add any talent that they can get.

Caldwell Pope to sign with the 76ers: 1 year, minimum contract (Haynes that it was coming, Shams 7/26)

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

$2,449,421

Having over 10 years of experience, the 3+D wing will make $3,876,529 with the subsidized cap hit above on the one year minimum, and I'd expect that to be the amount that he is giving up in his buyout with Memphis. After Haynes reported yesterday that Caldwell-Pope was negotiating with the Grizzlies on such a move in order to rejoin LeBron on the Sixers, the details of such have not been revealed by neither he nor Shams today now that the agreement has been reached. Nor has it been reported yet who Philadelphia will be moving on from in order to stay under their First Apron hard cap.

Set to make $21,621,500 in the last year of his 3 year, $66 million deal, Caldwell-Pope is now 33 and had no use in Memphis after he was the salary ballast in the Desmond Bane trade a year ago. His 31.6% on threes last year were his worst in a decade, but he owns a 36.5% career mark and made 38.4% on 4.6 attempts per game in his previous eight seasons. If he can still bring the pesky defense he's been known for, he could be a useful and willing role player on a roster that's suddenly full of stars.

Jones signs offer sheet with the Thunder: 2 years, $12 million (Scotto 7/25)

Spencer Jones

$6,064,000

$6,367,200

Since OKC is using the Taxpayer MLE for this offer sheet, I'm projecting the full $12.4 million value of it, and after the Dort trade, they'd still have some breathing room under the Second Apron if this addition goes through to fill their roster. Denver now has 48 hours to match these terms or lose Jones for no compensation. The 25 year old restricted free agent emerged in his second season on a Two-Way contract last year to be a solid forward who can fill in as a starter at times. He made 39.6% of his threes, albeit on relatively low volume with 3.7 attempts per-36 minutes, and won't kill you on defense, so this is a fair price to try to lure him away. If the Nuggets were to match, they'd have less than $5 million in room under the Second Apron with Peyton Watson's own restricted free agency still to deal with. 

James signs with the 76ers: 2 years, minimum contract (player announcement, Shams the details 7/24)

LeBron James

$3,876,529

$4,070,355

 

The Decision Part 4 is finally over. I think the only somewhat surprising thing is that a player with an argument for the GOAT conversation will actually be playing for a minimum contract, but given that he turns 42 in December and teams weren't sure about his availability this summer, no one was setting aside cap space for him this time around. Because James is a 1+1 deal, his full salary amount will count towards his cap hit instead of a usual one year, veteran minimum, but they can slide just under the First Apron with one non-guaranteed salary (I'd guess Dalen Terry) waived. The player option allows him to get a new deal next summer or, if he decides to retire, pick up some extra salary to make up for this huge discount.

LeBron has said that being a fan of Julius Erving was part of the reason that he switched to #6 earlier in his career, and now he'll be playing for Dr. J's NBA team. It is somewhat ironic since going to New York was always talked about as the big move for James going back to his first free agency in 2010, and his agent Rich Paul said on his podcast that if the Knicks hadn't just won the title, that would be a done deal already. Now the rival city of Philadelphia will be where LeBron will tries to restore past glory to a historic franchise instead.

It's easy to see how the 76ers became an appealing option. There was already the obvious connection with Maxey, a fellow Klutch client under Paul, and then the hiring of Gansey added a top basketball decision maker that James knows from their time in Cleveland together, as mentioned in the Simons section below. Then the trade for Jaylen Brown helped move them up the totem pole as possible contenders in the East (talk about a ripple effect from Boston). At the beginning of the month, Brian Windhorst, who has covered James since high school, suggested on ESPN's free agency special that the teams contending for his signature needed to make a splash to show that they mean business and speculated about a possible Evan Mobley trade for Brown. Now James will in fact be lining up next to the former Celtic, just for the Sixers and not the Cavs.

Philly's new starting lineup of Maxey, Edgecombe, Brown, James, and Embiid will be one of the most formidable lineups in the league, and the additions of Wade, Simons, Philon, and Hukporti help fortify what they already had on the bench. Whether or not Embiid, whom James played with on Team USA, can stay healthy is always the question for their playoff hopes, and Hukporti isn't exactly a proven backup option to go with Adem Bona. However, adding a star of this caliber, even at his age, of course adds some insolation to help fill the talent void if needed, and having another wing could unlock some small ball lineups with their power forwards. Last year with Luka showed once again that LeBron has the ability to blend his skills to play next to anyone, and his playmaking on this team could take them a long way.

Tate re-signs with the Rockets: 1 year, minimum contract (team announcement 7/23)

Jae'Sean Tate

$2,449,421

Having six years of experience, the backup wing will make just under $3.1 million with the subsidized cap hit above on the one year minimum. Right after the team announcement, Scotto reported that this is only partially guaranteed for $1.04 million, so the longest tenured Rocket may need to fight to keep his spot. This takes Houston into the tax now with 15 players on standard contracts, but they could skirt it by waiving Davison's non-guaranteed salary that I've mentioned before.

Walsh extends with the Celtics: 3 years, ~$16 million (Haynes 7/23)

Jordan Walsh

$2,406,207

$4,783,951

$5,166,667

$5,549,383

Since Shams reported it as $15 million right after Haynes, I'm splitting the middle with this projection of $15.5 million. Walsh's offensive development has taken some time, but he brings nice energy off the bench as a defensive wing to make this price of equivalent to about the BAE pretty team friendly. As a former 2nd round pick, it's a solid move to lock in this money that's worth twice as much as he made in his first four seasons. Scotto also adds that the last year is a team option.

Crawford re-signs with the Rockets: 4 years, minimum contract (team announcement 7/22)

Isaiah Crawford

$2,449,421

$2,664,402

$2,888,190

$3,272,765

After the team announced the deal, Rockets cap expert David Weiner reported the details on what is a classic "Hinkie special" type of deal that's designed for flexibility. Being on Two-Way contracts in his first two years, Crawford has only played 29 total NBA games so far without any standout numbers, but his G-League production in promising. In 57 total games at that level, the 24 year old forward averaged 15.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocks with 1.5 turnovers in 32.7 minutes with 49.3%/39.5%/72.3% shooting. 20 of those games were with the Houston affiliate last year with higher numbers across the board and 18.3% defensive rebounding percentage standing out, but I think the larger overall sample size is more informative. He most likely won't turn into the next Robert Covington, another Rio Grande Valley alum, but these kind of no risk moves are always enticing when you can get them done with Non-Bird Rights like this.

2026 NBA Lottery Reaction & the Results of Traded Picks

This is always one of my favorite posts to write every year because I have a funny fascination with the NBA Draft Lottery. Carefully crafted strategies by the smartest minds in the sport are at the whim of 14 ping pong balls, and that's wonderfully absurd in a way. I have some mixed feelings on the league's proposed changes to the format, especially rushing them to go into effect next year already, but that's a topic for another time. 

Today's results weren't nearly as crazy as last year's, but there was still some drama at the top. As usual, I'll run through quick thoughts on the fallout, with tidbits about the odds of picks landing where they did, before a breakdown of how high all of the previously traded 1st rounders ended up. A whopping 12 picks are already not in the possession of their original teams, and I'll explain how each of them got there.

• The big thing at the top of the order is that in likely the last year of the current lottery odds that began with the 2019 draft, this is the first time that the team with the worst record won the #1 pick. The fact that the Wizards did it with John Wall, the franchise's #1 pick the last time they won the lottery in 2010, as the representative on the dais was fitting. Maybe the basketball gods enjoyed that the team just had a John Wall Night to celebrate him a few months ago.
  
  
• This ended a run of three straight years that the worst team dropped to their lowest possible slot, #5. I noted that streak and the drought of #1 picks in last year's piece, along with a note on the previous format from 2005-2018. It began with 10 straight years of the team with the best odds not getting the #1 pick and then ended with four straight lottery wins.
  
  
• If this current format changes at the end of the month as expected, it will go down as having five instances that one of the three worst teams, who all have the same 14% chance, won the #1 pick. The other three winners had likelihoods of 6%, 3%, and 1.8%.
  
  
• I've written in previous editions how the lowest number drawn is often key since the the vast majority of them are assigned to the worst teams, so the 4 and 2 coming up at the start of the drawing really narrowed the field. That especially applies to a 1 popping up, and in fact, Brett Siegel reports that once those three numbers were drawn, it was guaranteed to be one of Washington's four-digit combinations. It's always cool to watch the footage from inside the secret drawing room that occurs before the television production, and you can even see Pacers assistant GM Ted Wu react to the third number before saying something to Wizards president Michael Winger. Unfortunately for Wu, he can also be seen looking a bit dejected partway through the final drawing because...
  
  
  
  

Top 2026 NFL Rookie RBs

The NFL Draft has long been over, and I finally finished my first dynasty league rookie draft of the season. That means that now is as good of a time as ever to go through some rookie rankings, starting with the weakest group in this class. There weren't many running backs taken overall and especially not early as a lot of the prospects have question marks. 

I ended up going a bit longer than expected on the clear top runner, but that's reflective of this draft with shorter write ups thereafter. As usual, I'm taking into account three components when evaluating these prospects: their production profile, their athleticism, and where they were drafted. As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides that go over his statistical models and how RBs' speed scores (based on 40 yard dash and weight) are important.

I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's total offensive touchdowns, and his share of the team's receptions in the games that he played. Besides speed score, I'm looking at vertical jumps and broad jumps to get a further idea of physical traits, and all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic. Finally, the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.

1. Jeremiyah Love - 1st round, 3rd overall, 1st RB drafted - Cardinals

Like last year, this is the easiest start possible given Love's complete profile. You can argue that a team with as many roster needs as Arizona shouldn't take a running back so high (his draft slot will earn him the most guaranteed money at the position in NFL history, for example), but what is a widely held opinion is that he is the best skill position player in this draft. Perhaps even the best player overall.

Love broke out as a 19 year old sophomore on Notre Dame's national runner up team in 2024 with 163 carries for 1,125 yards (6.90 per carry) and 17 touchdowns along with 28 catches for 237 yards and another 2 scores. That resulted in a strong 27.54% touchdown share and 9.46% reception share but just okay 1.34 total yards per team play and 0.53 receiving yards team per pass attempt. This past season, however, he had similar yet improved raw numbers despite fewer games played, and thus his market shares were great across the board.

Carrying the ball 199 times for 1,372 yards (6.89), Love tied the Fighting Irish record with 18 rushing touchdowns, and with his 27 catches for 280 yards and 3 more end zone trips, his 21 total TDs set a new record in the school's long history. He would've also broken the records for most rushing yards and yards from scrimmage had he not been slowed by rib injury during his last game of the season or had the team not been frustratingly left out of the playoff bracket. Altogether, the Doak Walker award winner and Heisman trophy finalist scored 33.33% of the team's offensive TDs, averaged 2.20 TY/P and 0.87 RY/PA, and caught 12.44% of their receptions.

Love showed out at the Combine despite being a lock to be the top RB in this week class, which shows what kind of competitor he is and how confident he is in his athleticism. At 6'0" and 212 pounds, he blazed a 4.36 40 yard dash for an elite 117.33 speed score. He uses that strong frame and competitiveness as a very willing blocker, often leading the way on designed quarterback runs by the goal line that hurt his own scoring numbers. Sharing a backfield with a fellow 1st round pick (see below) didn't help either, and yet he still hits basically every mark. The reception share isn't at the top of the class but is still plenty good as he displayed dynamic ability as a receiver, with his one hander against Texas A&M a good example.

Altogether, Love possesses a three-down skill set with a terrific production profile, high-end physical tools, and about as high of a pedigree as you could get. Not even turning 21 until the end of May, he lands in a situation that isn't necessarily great but could be worse. The offensive line has potential after signing Isaac Seumalo and drafting Chase Bisontis in the 2nd round to improve both guard spots. In the short term, Jacoby Brissett displayed last season that he can run a functional passing game with a strong group of targets in Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson. The selection of Carson Beck in the 3rd round leaves a lot to be desired as a long-term QB to line up next to, but they could have another high draft pick in next year's stronger class. The signing of Tyler Allgeier to go with veteran holdover James Conner and 2024 2nd round pick Trey Benson is what made picking a RB at #3 such a surprising choice. The latter two are coming off of season-ending injuries, though, and have no attachment to a brand new coaching staff in place. They may cap Love's upside as a rookie with something of a committee, but his ascension to one of the league's stars should only be a matter of when, not if.

2. Jadarian Price - 1st round, 32nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Seahawks

Notre Dame made history in the 1st round with this being the first time in the common draft era that the first two RBs selected came from the same school. Love and Price are also just the sixth pair of RB teammates to go in the 1st round and the first since Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (Arkansas) in 2008. Naturally, Price doesn't have a strong production profile given Love's dominance, so there's a lot of projecting needed here.

The main appeal for Price is his big play ability that was on display with his 15 total touchdowns on just 131 touches as a redshirt junior last season. Two of those came on special teams en route to being named a first team All-American kick returner (12 for 450 yards), and two others came as a receiver despite having just 6 catches for 87 yards. Hardly being involved at all in the passing game is the biggest knock for Price as he had paltry reception shares of 2.20%, 1.35%, and 2.76% over his three seasons.

That also resulted in just 0.27 RY/PA and 1.01 TY/P, with a 20.63% touchdown share being the only production metric even close to average in this class, but again, this was always going to be the case next to Love. Price did rank second within the class with 19.22% of his career carries going for 10+ yards, and looking more at physical traits, his Combine performance showed that he is a good, if unspectacular athlete. At 5'10.625" and 203 pounds, his 4.49 40 time was a little surprising given all of his long runs, but it was still enough for a decent speed score of 99.89. The 10'4" broad jump and 35" vertical better displayed his explosiveness, and he put up 21 bench press reps to boot.

What really solidified Price's ranking in this class was Seattle taking him in the 1st round. Possessing a monstrous defense and strong offensive line, the Super Bowl champions love to run the ball, and the 22 year old will have the opportunity to be the Week 1 starter. With Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL in January and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker lost to free agency, Price will be competing with Emanuel Wilson, who only received $1.6 million in free agency after being a Packers backup, and George Holani, who was re-signed for under $1.1 million after mostly playing special teams. Draft capital doesn't always guarantee playing time, but in this situation, the rookie has a great chance to be featured more as a pro than he was in college.

2026 NBA Trade Summaries

Now that the NBA Trade Deadline is officially in the rear view mirror, I wanted to put together a quick summary of every team's net result. Only three teams didn't make any in-season trades while some had a lot to process, so this is a high level view of where everyone ended up. I noted some players that were released in conjunction with moves and even a couple of immediate signings that followed.

Full details of every deal is of course in my tracker if you want to know the contracts, draft picks, trade mechanics involved, and a little bit about why each move was made. Basically, I combed through reports and press releases so that you don't have to and put it all in one place. Lastly, "fake" 2nd rounders are those that are top-55 protected and thus unlikely to convey, and teams are listed in order of championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. I find it interesting to see how active teams were relative to how much of a contender they are, along with the differences in title odds when compared to those with similar records.

Oklahoma City Thunder, 40-12. +135

In: Jared McCain, Mason Plumlee (released), draft rights to Balsa Koprivica (57th pick in 2021)

Out: Ousmane Dieng, one 1st round pick, four 2nd round picks, cash considerations

Denver Nuggets, 33-19. +450
In: one 2nd round pick

Out: Hunter Tyson, one 2nd round pick

Cleveland Cavaliers, 31-21. +1,100
In: James Harden, Dennis Schroder, Keon Ellis, Emanuel Miller (Two-Way), cash considerations

Out: Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter, Lonzo Ball, Luke Travers (Two-Way, released), four 2nd round picks

New York Knicks, 33-18. +1,300
In: Jose Alvarado

Out: Guerschon Yabusele, two 2nd round picks, cash considerations

Boston Celtics, 33-18. +1,500
In: Nikola Vucevic, John Tonje (Two-Way), one 2nd round pick, one fake 2nd round pick, cash considerations

Out: Anfernee Simons, Xavier Tillman, Josh Minott, Chris Boucher, two 2nd round picks, cash considerations (twice)

Detroit Pistons, 37-13. +1,600

In: Kevin Huerter, Dario Saric, 1st round swap rights

Out: Jaden Ivey, Isaac Jones (released)

San Antonio Spurs, 35-16. +1,600

In: None

Out: None

Houston Rockets, 31-19. +2,200

In: None

Out: None

Minnesota Timberwolves, 32-20. +2,800
In: Ayo Dosunmu, Julian Phillips, Cash considerations

Out: Mike Conley Jr., Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller, 1st round swap rights, four 2nd round picks

Back in after waivers: Mike Conley Jr.

2025-2026 NBA Trade Tracker

It took a while, but the NBA trade season is officially here now that the Trae Young deal came together rather quickly. As usual, this post will be constantly updated to serve as a one-stop shop for every trade that happens up until the deadline. 

Like last year's edition, the confirmed salaries come from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac, previously traded draft pick details come from RealGM, and I always make sure to list which reporter was first on the news. The latest deals will be added at the top of the post so that you don't have to keep scrolling to the bottom for updates, and salaries are color-coded based on whether they're player options, team options, or non-guaranteed.

Boston ducks the tax at the buzzer (Shams 2/5)

Hornets receive:

Xavier Tillman

$2,546,675

Cash considerations

Celtics receive:

TBD but likely a fake 2nd, old draft rights, or minimal cash

2030 Hornets 2nd round pick (protected 31-55)

I was wondering why Boston would do the Minott deal and not have a follow up trade lined up to get out of the luxury tax completely, but it turns out there was one last deal to be reported an hour after the deadline passed. As long as the teams were in the queue to make the trade call into the league office by noon PST today, trades can go through.

The actual money saved here probably won't be a lot more than the reported $3.5 million that Charlotte is receiving now that so many teams got out of the tax to lower the league distribution. However, Boston making these moves could be important since it starts the path towards resetting the repeater penalty. They were taxpayers in each of the last three seasons to trigger that, so they'll need to also avoid the tax next season in order to not be penalized at such harsh rates in '27-28. The fact that they were able to get all the way from the Second Apron to this point and still be tied for 2nd in the East with no Jayson Tatum is pretty remarkable.

Update: The Hornets' official press release is out to confirm that it's a 2nd rounder with maximum protections that they're sending out, as expected.

Milwaukee re-routes Richards (Shams 2/5)

Bulls receive:

Nick Richards

$5,000,000

Bucks receive:

Ousmane Dieng

$6,670,882

This will technically end up being a three-way trade with Phoenix's involvement below, but the main point is that Milwaukee is ending up with Dieng instead of Richards, who provides some much needed center help to Chicago.

Charlotte and Dallas flip new guards (Shams 2/5)

Mavericks receives:

Tyus Jones

$7,000,000

Charlotte receives:

Malaki Branham

$4,962,033

Even with both of these guards being acquired just yesterday, they can be traded here since it's a one for one deal without being aggregated. It makes sense, too, since Dallas could really use a set up man and now have more financial flexibility than over the summer. Fischer added that Jones was their main target over Russell but couldn't afford him at the time.

Charlotte didn't really have a need for another point guard, so this was probably to save a little bit of salary and get a look at the younger Branham, whom I liked as a mid-1st rounder coming out of Ohio State. Still only 22, he brings more size at guard to help replace Connaughton, who was waived as part of the Jones trade.

Update: Reading the press release, this technically got looped into the Mavs-Wizards trade that originally landed Branham in Dallas. I don't think that changes the trade mechanics, and Mavericks' Trade Exception worth Hardy's $6,000,000 should stay intact.

Indiana gets their center (Fischer that it was close, Shams and Siegel the deal 2/5)

Pacers receive: $20,756,880 total

Ivica Zubac

$18,102,000

$19,550,160

$20,998,320

Kobe Brown

$2,654,880

Clippers receive: $16,787,573 total

Bennedict Mathurin

$9,187,573

Isaiah Jackson

$7,600,000

$7,000,000

$6,400,000

2026 Pacers 1st round pick (protected 1-4 and 10-30, then becomes 2031 1st)

2029 Pacers 1st round pick

2028 Mavericks 2nd round pick

I don't think we've ever seen so many lottery teams be buyers (and all for big men), but since Zubac is on such a great contract, I get it in this case. Including this year's protected pick is fascinating since Indiana currently has the third-best lottery odds. If they stay in that position, then L.A. will have a 47.86% chance of the pick dropping to #5, #6, or #7, otherwise it will become an unprotected 1st five years from now instead of just rolling over to next year like most protections. I suppose the Clippers preferred it this way to try to maintain lottery upside given the uncertainty of the team that far down the line compared to them likely returning to playoff status next season. The back-end protections don't seem likely to come into play since the Pacers would have to drop to the 6th spot in the lottery standings to even have a 0.15% chance of dropping to #10. The 7th spot would have a 1.33% chance of the pick dropping far enough and then 7.13% if in the 8th position, but it is still a pretty creative set up to have here just in case. 

The Pacers aren't like the Jazz or Wizards, of course, since they were just a game away from winning the Finals last season before having to take this gap year due to Tyrese Haliburton's torn Achilles. Now they've locked in his new pick and roll partner with a 28 year old (29 next month) who also made 2nd team All-Defense. And they could still add a top-4 pick (in a great draft) to this core with their odds basically coming down to a coin flip pending any big movement in the standings. Gozlan did point out the nearly $800K bonus that Zubac will get from his trade kicker, so I think this is how his salaries will now look:

Ivica Zubac

$18,893,980

$20,342,140

$21,790,300

The Clippers 1st rounder that the Thunder own just got dangerously good again after they had been on a hot streak, but that was a sunk cost for them anyway. After making the Harden trade, cashing in on Zu at the likely peak of his value makes sense with the upside of this return. 

In addition to the draft picks, Mathurin is nice get since he's only 23, averaging a career-high 17.8 points, and will be a restricted free agent. He didn't fit into Indy's long-term plans with the other money that they owe and the luxury tax basically acting as a hard cap for them, but he has a ton of talent and had his moments in their Finals run. I've never been particularly high on Jackson, but he does have strong rebounding rates. His shot blocking has seen big a dip in this first year back from his torn Achilles, though, so the money owed to him could be seen as negative.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 10-13 in 2025

This is now the home stretch of the NFL season with fantasy players going into the final week of the regular season and the real life teams fighting for playoff positioning. The trade deadline is now firmly in the rearview mirror, so we have an idea of how any arrivals or departures changed the outlook of teams' usage. I try to keep an eye out for anything notable in that department for these posts, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Thanksgiving weekend threw off my cadence of writing these every three weeks, and funnily enough that impacted the numbers for a player I've been planning to write about for a while: De'Von Achane. I've featured him in past years, but his consistency this season has been remarkable with 16.5+ points in 11 of 12 games (and still 12.8 in the outlier).
  
  Being a dual-threat is always helpful in raising running backs' floors, and Achane's 74.32% route participation and 21.18% target share both trail only Christian McCaffrey (82.04% and 24.88%) at the position. This last game is the first time all year that the Dolphins star didn't record a catch, and even that included a wide open screen in the red zone that Tua Tagovailoa missed him on. Achane still finished with 19.4 points thanks to another big day on the ground with 22 carries for 134 yards, and a TD, which made it three straight games with 120+ rushing yards. He is the engine to the offense with 79.17% of the snaps and 71.81% of the RB carries in addition to the passing work, leading to 21.20 points per game for the season.

  Achane broke loose for the tuddy 😮‍💨 @FedEx
  
  NOvsMIA on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/d0E6eaROWc

  — NFL (@NFL) November 30, 2025

  
  
• Like Miami, Seattle's offense is run by a former 49ers assistant, Klint Kubiak, but they are completely different with their RB deployment. Kenneth Walker has played just 47.36% of the snaps, run a route on 37.11% of the drop backs, been given 50.79% of the RB carries, and seen a 7.44% target share resulting in 11.23 points while Zach Charbonnet's numbers in those same categories are 46.77%, 36.45%, 44.01%, 3.46%, and 9.76. Even then, Walker's numbers are slightly inflated by the Week 3 game that Charbonnet missed, but things look a little different if you look at the splits before and after the team's Week 8 bye.
  
  In only the first 6 games when both 'backs played: 41.62% snap rate, 30.37% route participation, 52.32% carry share, 4.91% target share, 9.52 points for Walker compared to 54.32%, 43.46%, 47.68%, 4.29%, and 10.02 for Charbonnet.
  
  In the 5 games since the bye: 53.21%, 44.68%, 48.87%, 11.11%, and 11.94 for Walker versus 37.82%, 26.95%, 39.85%, 2.38%, and 9.46 for Charbonnet. Those aren't gamebreaking numbers for Walker, but it's an encouraging sign, especially with the passing game usage after neither RB were getting practically any work through the air to start the season. These last two games set his season-highs for target share with 16% and 17.39%, and the work was even more in his favor this past week before Charbonnet salted the game away.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-9 in 2025

The NFL regular season is now halfway over, so how teams are utilizing their players is pretty established by this point. Still, there are always some notable changes with players' opportunities, whether by a lineup change, a teammate's injury, or in one case here, a return from suspension. That's what's covered here, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• After being suspended the first six games of the season, Rashee Rice has immediately made a huge impact. Despite only being in on 40.74% of the snaps and 47.50% of the drop backs in a blowout win his first game, he wasn't exactly eased in with a 29.41% target share leading to two touchdowns and 23.2 PPR points.
  
  Over the next two games, Rice was back to a full-time player with snap rates of 85.51% and 81.67% and route participation rates of 82.93% and 79.49%. His target shares have technically gone down to 28.13% and 24.14%, but those are of course still strong numbers leading to 27.37% overall. He's even getting some carries near the goal line for more scoring opportunities to go along with his coveted slot role (about 40% of snaps) that leads to so many layup looks, so his 22.43 points per game so far looks sustainable.

  Rashee Rice has a touchdown in his first game back
  
  LVvsKC on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/oueOtDSk2I

  — NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

  
  
• Things finally normalized this past game, but Ja'Marr Chase has been seeing absurd volume since Joe Flacco joined the Bengals. Overall through four games together, last year's receiving Triple Crown winner has a 38.04% target share while playing 98.88% of the snaps and running a route on 98.90% of the drop backs for 25.35 points per game. Before "only" having 8 targets last game (17.78%), that was a 45.76% target share, and with Flacco letting it fly so often (43.25 attempts per game), it translated to 18 targets per game.
  
  This stretch has brought Chase's overall season averages to 20.86 points, a 94.95% snap rate, 96.69% route participation, and a 33.75% target share (resulting in 11.89 looks). For comparison, in last year's historic season, those numbers were 23.71, 92.69%, 97.79%, and 27.87% (10.29), so he's still managed to get by with sheer volume to offset losing Joe Burrow's efficiency.