Top 2026 NFL Rookie WRs

The NFL is back! I started writing this annual post at the beginning of the summer but got sidetracked by writing about the NBA, trips, and other responsibilities, but I wanted to make sure to get it done before any of these rookie wide receivers play. It's a much deeper position than the running backs, but I'm not sure quite how much star power it will end up with.

As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides, and the statistical marks that he looks at. I also make note of players' physical traits more than he does, but athleticism tends to matter less at this position than for running backs or tight ends.

Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA) and yards per route run (YPRR) are the key production markers to keep in mind since they help tell a better story of a player's stats than raw numbers due to the huge differences in offensive styles from school to school. I'm also looking at how old they were when they became contributors and the percentage of their team's receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in games they participated in. On the athletic testing side, 40 yard dash, the subsequent height-adjusted speed score (HaSS), vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone time, and the short shuttle are all under consideration for WRs. I'm more focused on getting an idea of how athletic these prospects may or may not be than whether they hit certain thresholds, though.

Once again, all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic, and the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.

1. Jordyn Tyson - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Saints

Tyson was one of the more divisive figures of the 1st round with the perception of how high he'd go varying to a large degree during draft, but I'm a big fan. He didn't have as many college stops as his older brother Jaylon, who was an NBA 1st rounder two years ago, but Jordyn started first his career at Colorado, where he led a 1-11 team in receiving yards and touchdowns as a true freshman. He did that despite missing the final three games with a torn ACL, MCL, and PCL, and his pro-rated market shares of 27.57% and 50%, respectively, are excellent for an 18 year old, and he had a strong 2.79 YPRR.

Following the coaching change to Deion Sanders and reportedly not feeling wanted, Tyson was part of the massive roster overhaul and transferred to Arizona State, where he missed all but a handful of snaps in 2023 as his knee recovered. He came back stronger than ever as a redshirt sophomore to put up 75 catches for 1,101 yards, and 10 touchdowns in only 12 games, resulting in outstanding marks of 3.48 YPTPA, 3.04 YPRR, a 38.27% reception share, 40.81% yardage share, and 45.45% TD share.

Nagging hamstring strains to both legs limited Tyson this past season to drop those figures to 2.19, 2.37, 37.58%, 34.50%, and 72.73%, but those are all still better than a lot of his peers. His early breakout, best-season market shares, and even a career 2.71 YPRR combine for an elite production profile, and he was only 21.69 years old on draft day. 

Although Tyson wasn't healthy enough to participate in testing at the combine or a pro day, he was able to put on a private workout for teams before the draft to show his recovery from the hamstrings. He did join the measurements portion of the combine to confirm his 6'2.125" and 203 pound frame that allows him to play either outside or in the slot, and he makes the most out of that catch radius with good hands. Because he can get open with craft in addition to winning at the catch point with acrobatic grabs, Brugler even gave a Stefon Diggs comp.

Tyson was selected much higher in the draft than Diggs with the scary injury history not enough to prevent him from going in the top-10, and New Orleans is a really nice landing spot. Kellen Moore is a great offensive mind whose teams always tend to run a lot of plays thanks to a fast pace, and Tyler Shough improved at a nice rate as the second half of the season went on. The rookie will unfortunately start the season on IR with more hamstring issues, but whenever he makes his debut, he has a wide open opportunity to immediately become the #2 WR next to Chris Olave. While the Saints like Devaugn Vele (after surprisingly trading a 4th and 7th for him) and fellow rookie Bryce Lance also brings upside to the WR room, Tyson has the talent and runway to make an early impact just like he did in college.

2. Carnell Tate - 1st round, 4th overall, 1st WR drafted - Titans

While I think that Tyson will have the biggest impact on a per game basis, you can definitely make the case that Tate will have the best season-long stats as a rookie. Although it was a surprise just how high he went in the NFL draft, he was generally accepted to be the first WR selected thanks to having a pretty safe overall profile. As a sophomore, Tate was a contributor to Ohio State's 2024 national championship team playing alongside 1st rounder Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, a likely top-5 pick in next year's draft, and then he truly broke out as a 20 year old junior.

Tate's overall totals don't jump off the page due to missing three games, but in the contests that he played his 2.74 YPTPA, 3.03 YPRR, 28.61% yardage share, and 31.03% touchdown share were all strong marks. He can get a bit of a pass on the 20.73% reception share due to working more down the field with 17.2 yard per catch and playing next to a generational prospect like Smith. For Tate's three-year career, he averaged 2.27 YPRR, which is more than acceptable, especially for an early declare prospect.

Already holding high draft stock, Tate didn't do a full workout at the combine but showed that he has the prototypical physical tools of an outside receiver by running a solid 4.53 40 yard dash at 6'2.25" and 192 pounds. His 6'6" wingspan also doesn't hurt with the 50/50 balls that he comes away with down the field. Joining a Titans team that signed the 5'8" Wan'Dale Robinson to be the top target competition, the rookie is expected to have a prominent role. 31 year old Calvin Ridley is coming off of a broken leg, and while Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike showed some nice flashes as rookies, Tate earned way higher draft capital for a reason. The main question is how much of a leap will last year's #1 overall pick Cam Ward make with a new coaching staff.

3. Makai Lemon - 1st round, 20th overall, 3rd WR drafted - Eagles (traded up)

Lemon is an interesting case after he was expected to go in the top half of the 1st round before the Eagles eventually moved up to stop his fall. He had a 2.05 YPRR in a very limited role as a freshman before posting an elite 3.03 rate as a sophomore despite an uneven offense. Lemon only averaged 1.75 YPTPA that year with 23.85% of the team's receiving yards his only notable market share number. Things came together in a big way this past year, though, as he posted a 2.96 YPTPA, 3.13 YPRR, a 30.15% reception share, 32.4% yardage share, and 44% TD share.

Having a birthday in June of 2004, Lemon is on the older side for his year (he's actually older than Tyson despite being a grade below him) to make that a 21 year old breakout as a junior, but those are still elite numbers, as is his 3.02 career YPRR. At 5'11.125", 192 pounds and wearing a single digit number at USC, it's easy to make a a comparison to Amon-Ra St. Brown (5'11.5" and 197 pounds at his combine) like Daniel Jeremiah did. Lemon's 4.50 40 at his pro day isn't going to blow anyone away but is adequate enough, especially for the type of receiver he is with his quickness and versatility to work out of the slot.

Landing in Philadelphia should provide a nice opportunity immediately with the departure of AJ Brown. Lemon missed a good amount of the offseason with hamstring issues, so he might start the season as the #3 receiver but could easily finish as the #2 behind DeVonta Smith by the end of the season. Trade acquisition Dontayvion Wicks has been productive in a limited role, so we'll see if provides tough competition throughout the season. They made the move up to draft Lemon for a reason, though, and his type of talent should show itself sooner rather than later.

2026 NBA Offseason Tracker

I guess it's that time of year already! I typically make this post after the NBA draft, but now that deals started pouring in over the weekend, I'm starting now and will just add draft day moves in here.

This will be constantly updated throughout the summer, so I'll be adding the latest news at the top to be readily available upon revisiting the page instead of always having to scroll down. Or in other words, it goes in chronological order from the bottom up.

As usual, players already under contract have their figures listed based on Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com while salaries in bold italics are my own estimates based on reported numbers and the standard 5% or 8% raises that the teams could give. Salaries are also color coded if they are a player option, a team option, not fully guaranteed, or a "mutual option" (a player option that's not fully guaranteed) based on the reporting, with parentheses to credit whoever broke the news and when.

6/30 update: The NBA officially announced that the salary cap for this season is $164,961,000, which is slightly lower than the $165 million that was projected. The luxury tax line, First Apron, and Second Apron are subsequently $200,428,000, $209,015,000, and $221,686,000, respectively. 

That means these are the maximum starting salaries and total possible contracts based on years of experience:

• 6 or fewer years (25% of the cap): $41,240,250 for up to 4 years, $177,333,075 with a new team or 5 years, $239,193,450 with their previous team.
• 7-9 years (30%): $49,488,300 for up to 4 years, $212,799,690 with a new team or 5 years, $287,032,140 with their previous team.
• 10+ years (35%): $57,736,350 for up to 4 years, $248,266,305 with a new team or 5 years, $334,870,830 with their previous team.

And the amount available for the various exceptions can go up to the following starting salaries and totals:

• Full Mid-Level Exception (MLE): $15,044,000 for up to 4 years, $64,689,200
• Taxpayer MLE: $6,064,000 for up to 2 years, $12,431,200
• Room Mid-Level Exception: $9,366,000 for up to 3 years, $29,502,900
• Bi-Annual Exception: $5,477,000 for up to 2 years, $11,227,850 (can only be used every other year)
• Minimum Exception: a $2,449,421 cap hit, aka the minimum for players with two years of experience, as long as it's a one year deal. The league subsidizes the cap hit and pays the difference between that and their actual salary that they earn based on years of experience.

Now back to the deals:

New Orleans salary dumps Hawkins (Shams 9/8)

Grizzlies receive:

Jordan Hawkins

$7,021,895

Micah Peavy

$2,150,917

$2,525,901

$2,735,698

2nd round pick

2nd round pick swap

Pelicans receive:

Taj Gibson

$3,815,861

AJ Johnson

$3,237,120

$5,493,394

This gets New Orleans under the First Apron to be able to complete the Mathurin signing, and it should get them clear of the luxury tax when they inevitably waive Gibson's salary. There were some interesting cap mechanics at play here with Johnson needing to hit 60 days since his last trade so that the can be aggregated again with about $150K of Gibson's contract that became guaranteed for this deal. That way they are enough to match for Hawkins' salary, and then Memphis uses either part of their remaining MLE or the Morant Trade Exception to absorb Peavy, all while preserving the nearly $29 million Jackson TPE. And the Grizzlies also pick up some draft capital for their trouble along with a look at a 24 year old shooter in Hawkins and the 25 year old Peavy, who got a good amount of run as a 2nd round rookie. Finally, the Pelicans will likely create their own Trade Exception worth the difference in salary between Hawkins and Johnson, $3,784,775.

Simmons signs with the Kings: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/4)

Ben Simmons

$2,449,421

Having nine years of experience (due to sitting out last season), 2016's #1 overall pick will make just over $3.5 million with the subsidized cap hit above on the one year minimum. There's been talk about Sacramento wanting a veteran ball-handler to help rookie Darius Acuff, and after Westbrook retired instead of returning, they landed on Simmons. The 30 year old has seemed to be a shell of his former self ever since the unbelievable collapse against Atlanta in the 2021 playoffs and subsequent back issues, but at this price, there's no risk in taking a shot on reviving his career.

Thompson extends with the Rockets: 5 years, $208 million (Shams 9/3)

Amen Thompson

$12,258,609

$35,862,069

$38,731,034

$41,600,000

$44,468,966

$47,337,931

It feels like Houston is the only team that doesn't just automatically give out max contracts and actually negotiates hard with their stars, especially if they have the leverage of restricted free agency looming. Thompson is only the second player from the lofty 2023 draft class to sign an extension, and based on current cap projections, the 25% max would have been $252 million over 5 years like what Wembanyama signed for. Locking in the 23 year old rising star, who made First Team All-Defense in his second season, at this number could go a long way towards helping the Rockets' tax bill and potential Apron issues as more and more of their roster start to hit new contracts.

Wolves shed more salary (Shams 8/28)

Jazz receive:

Josh Green

$14,679,012

Cash considerations

Timberwolves receive:

John Konchar

$6,165,000

Cody Williams

$6,015,600

$7,669,890

Already saving about $2.5 million in this transaction (which is equivalent to a veteran minimum), Minnesota is also waiving and stretching Konchar's contract over three years to make this a cut of nearly $6.6 million in salary for this season. That gives them enough room under the Second Apron to make the Kuminga signing official, and they're getting a look at Williams, who turns just 22 in November. The #10 pick two years ago is nowhere near the player that his brother Jalen is, but he at least made notable progress this past year after a terrible rookie season.

Green could have been a useful 3+D wing on a playoff team like the Wolves, but this type of transaction works out well for their flexibility to a sign a bigger need at forward with Kuminga. Instead, Green will be a nice veteran who only turns 26 himself in November for a young Jazz team that hopes to finally be competitive now. Williams looks like mostly a whiff on such a high pick, so deciding to swap out any potential upside for a more proven player is an understandable move for where they are in their trajectory at long last. Konchar being collateral damage here is a little surprising since he's been a useful player in the past, but he should catch on with another playoff hopeful team on a minimum.

Richards signs with the Heat: one year, likely minimum contract (Shams 8/27)

Nick Richards

$2,449,421

Having six years of experience, the backup wing will make just under $3.1 million with the subsidized cap hit above if it is the one year minimum. Antetokounmpo, Adebayo, and Portis can all play some center, but Richard provides Miami with a more stereotypical rebounding specialist at the position.

Kuminga signs with the Timberwolves: 2 years, "$13 million" (Shams 8/26)

Jonathan Kuminga

$6,064,000

$6,367,200

The Taxpayer MLE amount is the most that Minnesota can offer, not "$13 million" like Shams reported as a favor to Kuminga's attention seeking agent, Aaron Turner, who insisted a year ago that the $24 million team option for this season would be torn up for a better deal. Instead, the 24 year old (in October) forward will only be getting a quarter of that as the Wolves try to tight rope their Second Apron hard cap. They'll need to shed salary to fit this contract in, possibly by stretching another player's contract by this weekend's deadline.

Mathurin signs with the Pelicans: 2 years, $16 million (Shams 8/26)

Bennedict Mathurin

$7,804,878

$8,195,122

It's surprising that the Clippers are just going to let a 24 year old scorer go for nothing like this when they controlled his restricted free agency, but getting that player option for next year is a nice win for Mathurin instead of merely accepting the one year Qualifying Offer for a similar salary this season. New Orleans will need to clear some salary to use part of the MLE to make this addition and still stay under the First Apron hard cap that this will trigger, let alone under the luxury tax line that the franchise will seemingly never cross.

2026 NBA Lottery Reaction & the Results of Traded Picks

This is always one of my favorite posts to write every year because I have a funny fascination with the NBA Draft Lottery. Carefully crafted strategies by the smartest minds in the sport are at the whim of 14 ping pong balls, and that's wonderfully absurd in a way. I have some mixed feelings on the league's proposed changes to the format, especially rushing them to go into effect next year already, but that's a topic for another time. 

Today's results weren't nearly as crazy as last year's, but there was still some drama at the top. As usual, I'll run through quick thoughts on the fallout, with tidbits about the odds of picks landing where they did, before a breakdown of how high all of the previously traded 1st rounders ended up. A whopping 12 picks are already not in the possession of their original teams, and I'll explain how each of them got there.

• The big thing at the top of the order is that in likely the last year of the current lottery odds that began with the 2019 draft, this is the first time that the team with the worst record won the #1 pick. The fact that the Wizards did it with John Wall, the franchise's #1 pick the last time they won the lottery in 2010, as the representative on the dais was fitting. Maybe the basketball gods enjoyed that the team just had a John Wall Night to celebrate him a few months ago.
  
  
• This ended a run of three straight years that the worst team dropped to their lowest possible slot, #5. I noted that streak and the drought of #1 picks in last year's piece, along with a note on the previous format from 2005-2018. It began with 10 straight years of the team with the best odds not getting the #1 pick and then ended with four straight lottery wins.
  
  
• If this current format changes at the end of the month as expected, it will go down as having five instances that one of the three worst teams, who all have the same 14% chance, won the #1 pick. The other three winners had likelihoods of 6%, 3%, and 1.8%.
  
  
• I've written in previous editions how the lowest number drawn is often key since the the vast majority of them are assigned to the worst teams, so the 4 and 2 coming up at the start of the drawing really narrowed the field. That especially applies to a 1 popping up, and in fact, Brett Siegel reports that once those three numbers were drawn, it was guaranteed to be one of Washington's four-digit combinations. It's always cool to watch the footage from inside the secret drawing room that occurs before the television production, and you can even see Pacers assistant GM Ted Wu react to the third number before saying something to Wizards president Michael Winger. Unfortunately for Wu, he can also be seen looking a bit dejected partway through the final drawing because...
  
  
  
  

Top 2026 NFL Rookie RBs

The NFL Draft has long been over, and I finally finished my first dynasty league rookie draft of the season. That means that now is as good of a time as ever to go through some rookie rankings, starting with the weakest group in this class. There weren't many running backs taken overall and especially not early as a lot of the prospects have question marks. 

I ended up going a bit longer than expected on the clear top runner, but that's reflective of this draft with shorter write ups thereafter. As usual, I'm taking into account three components when evaluating these prospects: their production profile, their athleticism, and where they were drafted. As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides that go over his statistical models and how RBs' speed scores (based on 40 yard dash and weight) are important.

I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's total offensive touchdowns, and his share of the team's receptions in the games that he played. Besides speed score, I'm looking at vertical jumps and broad jumps to get a further idea of physical traits, and all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic. Finally, the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.

1. Jeremiyah Love - 1st round, 3rd overall, 1st RB drafted - Cardinals

Like last year, this is the easiest start possible given Love's complete profile. You can argue that a team with as many roster needs as Arizona shouldn't take a running back so high (his draft slot will earn him the most guaranteed money at the position in NFL history, for example), but what is a widely held opinion is that he is the best skill position player in this draft. Perhaps even the best player overall.

Love broke out as a 19 year old sophomore on Notre Dame's national runner up team in 2024 with 163 carries for 1,125 yards (6.90 per carry) and 17 touchdowns along with 28 catches for 237 yards and another 2 scores. That resulted in a strong 27.54% touchdown share and 9.46% reception share but just okay 1.34 total yards per team play and 0.53 receiving yards team per pass attempt. This past season, however, he had similar yet improved raw numbers despite fewer games played, and thus his market shares were great across the board.

Carrying the ball 199 times for 1,372 yards (6.89), Love tied the Fighting Irish record with 18 rushing touchdowns, and with his 27 catches for 280 yards and 3 more end zone trips, his 21 total TDs set a new record in the school's long history. He would've also broken the records for most rushing yards and yards from scrimmage had he not been slowed by rib injury during his last game of the season or had the team not been frustratingly left out of the playoff bracket. Altogether, the Doak Walker award winner and Heisman trophy finalist scored 33.33% of the team's offensive TDs, averaged 2.20 TY/P and 0.87 RY/PA, and caught 12.44% of their receptions.

Love showed out at the Combine despite being a lock to be the top RB in this week class, which shows what kind of competitor he is and how confident he is in his athleticism. At 6'0" and 212 pounds, he blazed a 4.36 40 yard dash for an elite 117.33 speed score. He uses that strong frame and competitiveness as a very willing blocker, often leading the way on designed quarterback runs by the goal line that hurt his own scoring numbers. Sharing a backfield with a fellow 1st round pick (see below) didn't help either, and yet he still hits basically every mark. The reception share isn't at the top of the class but is still plenty good as he displayed dynamic ability as a receiver, with his one hander against Texas A&M a good example.

Altogether, Love possesses a three-down skill set with a terrific production profile, high-end physical tools, and about as high of a pedigree as you could get. Not even turning 21 until the end of May, he lands in a situation that isn't necessarily great but could be worse. The offensive line has potential after signing Isaac Seumalo and drafting Chase Bisontis in the 2nd round to improve both guard spots. In the short term, Jacoby Brissett displayed last season that he can run a functional passing game with a strong group of targets in Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson. The selection of Carson Beck in the 3rd round leaves a lot to be desired as a long-term QB to line up next to, but they could have another high draft pick in next year's stronger class. The signing of Tyler Allgeier to go with veteran holdover James Conner and 2024 2nd round pick Trey Benson is what made picking a RB at #3 such a surprising choice. The latter two are coming off of season-ending injuries, though, and have no attachment to a brand new coaching staff in place. They may cap Love's upside as a rookie with something of a committee, but his ascension to one of the league's stars should only be a matter of when, not if.

2. Jadarian Price - 1st round, 32nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Seahawks

Notre Dame made history in the 1st round with this being the first time in the common draft era that the first two RBs selected came from the same school. Love and Price are also just the sixth pair of RB teammates to go in the 1st round and the first since Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (Arkansas) in 2008. Naturally, Price doesn't have a strong production profile given Love's dominance, so there's a lot of projecting needed here.

The main appeal for Price is his big play ability that was on display with his 15 total touchdowns on just 131 touches as a redshirt junior last season. Two of those came on special teams en route to being named a first team All-American kick returner (12 for 450 yards), and two others came as a receiver despite having just 6 catches for 87 yards. Hardly being involved at all in the passing game is the biggest knock for Price as he had paltry reception shares of 2.20%, 1.35%, and 2.76% over his three seasons.

That also resulted in just 0.27 RY/PA and 1.01 TY/P, with a 20.63% touchdown share being the only production metric even close to average in this class, but again, this was always going to be the case next to Love. Price did rank second within the class with 19.22% of his career carries going for 10+ yards, and looking more at physical traits, his Combine performance showed that he is a good, if unspectacular athlete. At 5'10.625" and 203 pounds, his 4.49 40 time was a little surprising given all of his long runs, but it was still enough for a decent speed score of 99.89. The 10'4" broad jump and 35" vertical better displayed his explosiveness, and he put up 21 bench press reps to boot.

What really solidified Price's ranking in this class was Seattle taking him in the 1st round. Possessing a monstrous defense and strong offensive line, the Super Bowl champions love to run the ball, and the 22 year old will have the opportunity to be the Week 1 starter. With Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL in January and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker lost to free agency, Price will be competing with Emanuel Wilson, who only received $1.6 million in free agency after being a Packers backup, and George Holani, who was re-signed for under $1.1 million after mostly playing special teams. Draft capital doesn't always guarantee playing time, but in this situation, the rookie has a great chance to be featured more as a pro than he was in college.

2026 NBA Trade Summaries

Now that the NBA Trade Deadline is officially in the rear view mirror, I wanted to put together a quick summary of every team's net result. Only three teams didn't make any in-season trades while some had a lot to process, so this is a high level view of where everyone ended up. I noted some players that were released in conjunction with moves and even a couple of immediate signings that followed.

Full details of every deal is of course in my tracker if you want to know the contracts, draft picks, trade mechanics involved, and a little bit about why each move was made. Basically, I combed through reports and press releases so that you don't have to and put it all in one place. Lastly, "fake" 2nd rounders are those that are top-55 protected and thus unlikely to convey, and teams are listed in order of championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. I find it interesting to see how active teams were relative to how much of a contender they are, along with the differences in title odds when compared to those with similar records.

Oklahoma City Thunder, 40-12. +135

In: Jared McCain, Mason Plumlee (released), draft rights to Balsa Koprivica (57th pick in 2021)

Out: Ousmane Dieng, one 1st round pick, four 2nd round picks, cash considerations

Denver Nuggets, 33-19. +450
In: one 2nd round pick

Out: Hunter Tyson, one 2nd round pick

Cleveland Cavaliers, 31-21. +1,100
In: James Harden, Dennis Schroder, Keon Ellis, Emanuel Miller (Two-Way), cash considerations

Out: Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter, Lonzo Ball, Luke Travers (Two-Way, released), four 2nd round picks

New York Knicks, 33-18. +1,300
In: Jose Alvarado

Out: Guerschon Yabusele, two 2nd round picks, cash considerations

Boston Celtics, 33-18. +1,500
In: Nikola Vucevic, John Tonje (Two-Way), one 2nd round pick, one fake 2nd round pick, cash considerations

Out: Anfernee Simons, Xavier Tillman, Josh Minott, Chris Boucher, two 2nd round picks, cash considerations (twice)

Detroit Pistons, 37-13. +1,600

In: Kevin Huerter, Dario Saric, 1st round swap rights

Out: Jaden Ivey, Isaac Jones (released)

San Antonio Spurs, 35-16. +1,600

In: None

Out: None

Houston Rockets, 31-19. +2,200

In: None

Out: None

Minnesota Timberwolves, 32-20. +2,800
In: Ayo Dosunmu, Julian Phillips, Cash considerations

Out: Mike Conley Jr., Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller, 1st round swap rights, four 2nd round picks

Back in after waivers: Mike Conley Jr.

2025-2026 NBA Trade Tracker

It took a while, but the NBA trade season is officially here now that the Trae Young deal came together rather quickly. As usual, this post will be constantly updated to serve as a one-stop shop for every trade that happens up until the deadline. 

Like last year's edition, the confirmed salaries come from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac, previously traded draft pick details come from RealGM, and I always make sure to list which reporter was first on the news. The latest deals will be added at the top of the post so that you don't have to keep scrolling to the bottom for updates, and salaries are color-coded based on whether they're player options, team options, or non-guaranteed.

Boston ducks the tax at the buzzer (Shams 2/5)

Hornets receive:

Xavier Tillman

$2,546,675

Cash considerations

Celtics receive:

TBD but likely a fake 2nd, old draft rights, or minimal cash

2030 Hornets 2nd round pick (protected 31-55)

I was wondering why Boston would do the Minott deal and not have a follow up trade lined up to get out of the luxury tax completely, but it turns out there was one last deal to be reported an hour after the deadline passed. As long as the teams were in the queue to make the trade call into the league office by noon PST today, trades can go through.

The actual money saved here probably won't be a lot more than the reported $3.5 million that Charlotte is receiving now that so many teams got out of the tax to lower the league distribution. However, Boston making these moves could be important since it starts the path towards resetting the repeater penalty. They were taxpayers in each of the last three seasons to trigger that, so they'll need to also avoid the tax next season in order to not be penalized at such harsh rates in '27-28. The fact that they were able to get all the way from the Second Apron to this point and still be tied for 2nd in the East with no Jayson Tatum is pretty remarkable.

Update: The Hornets' official press release is out to confirm that it's a 2nd rounder with maximum protections that they're sending out, as expected.

Milwaukee re-routes Richards (Shams 2/5)

Bulls receive:

Nick Richards

$5,000,000

Bucks receive:

Ousmane Dieng

$6,670,882

This will technically end up being a three-way trade with Phoenix's involvement below, but the main point is that Milwaukee is ending up with Dieng instead of Richards, who provides some much needed center help to Chicago.

Charlotte and Dallas flip new guards (Shams 2/5)

Mavericks receives:

Tyus Jones

$7,000,000

Charlotte receives:

Malaki Branham

$4,962,033

Even with both of these guards being acquired just yesterday, they can be traded here since it's a one for one deal without being aggregated. It makes sense, too, since Dallas could really use a set up man and now have more financial flexibility than over the summer. Fischer added that Jones was their main target over Russell but couldn't afford him at the time.

Charlotte didn't really have a need for another point guard, so this was probably to save a little bit of salary and get a look at the younger Branham, whom I liked as a mid-1st rounder coming out of Ohio State. Still only 22, he brings more size at guard to help replace Connaughton, who was waived as part of the Jones trade.

Update: Reading the press release, this technically got looped into the Mavs-Wizards trade that originally landed Branham in Dallas. I don't think that changes the trade mechanics, and Mavericks' Trade Exception worth Hardy's $6,000,000 should stay intact.

Indiana gets their center (Fischer that it was close, Shams and Siegel the deal 2/5)

Pacers receive: $20,756,880 total

Ivica Zubac

$18,102,000

$19,550,160

$20,998,320

Kobe Brown

$2,654,880

Clippers receive: $16,787,573 total

Bennedict Mathurin

$9,187,573

Isaiah Jackson

$7,600,000

$7,000,000

$6,400,000

2026 Pacers 1st round pick (protected 1-4 and 10-30, then becomes 2031 1st)

2029 Pacers 1st round pick

2028 Mavericks 2nd round pick

I don't think we've ever seen so many lottery teams be buyers (and all for big men), but since Zubac is on such a great contract, I get it in this case. Including this year's protected pick is fascinating since Indiana currently has the third-best lottery odds. If they stay in that position, then L.A. will have a 47.86% chance of the pick dropping to #5, #6, or #7, otherwise it will become an unprotected 1st five years from now instead of just rolling over to next year like most protections. I suppose the Clippers preferred it this way to try to maintain lottery upside given the uncertainty of the team that far down the line compared to them likely returning to playoff status next season. The back-end protections don't seem likely to come into play since the Pacers would have to drop to the 6th spot in the lottery standings to even have a 0.15% chance of dropping to #10. The 7th spot would have a 1.33% chance of the pick dropping far enough and then 7.13% if in the 8th position, but it is still a pretty creative set up to have here just in case. 

The Pacers aren't like the Jazz or Wizards, of course, since they were just a game away from winning the Finals last season before having to take this gap year due to Tyrese Haliburton's torn Achilles. Now they've locked in his new pick and roll partner with a 28 year old (29 next month) who also made 2nd team All-Defense. And they could still add a top-4 pick (in a great draft) to this core with their odds basically coming down to a coin flip pending any big movement in the standings. Gozlan did point out the nearly $800K bonus that Zubac will get from his trade kicker, so I think this is how his salaries will now look:

Ivica Zubac

$18,893,980

$20,342,140

$21,790,300

The Clippers 1st rounder that the Thunder own just got dangerously good again after they had been on a hot streak, but that was a sunk cost for them anyway. After making the Harden trade, cashing in on Zu at the likely peak of his value makes sense with the upside of this return. 

In addition to the draft picks, Mathurin is nice get since he's only 23, averaging a career-high 17.8 points, and will be a restricted free agent. He didn't fit into Indy's long-term plans with the other money that they owe and the luxury tax basically acting as a hard cap for them, but he has a ton of talent and had his moments in their Finals run. I've never been particularly high on Jackson, but he does have strong rebounding rates. His shot blocking has seen big a dip in this first year back from his torn Achilles, though, so the money owed to him could be seen as negative.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 10-13 in 2025

This is now the home stretch of the NFL season with fantasy players going into the final week of the regular season and the real life teams fighting for playoff positioning. The trade deadline is now firmly in the rearview mirror, so we have an idea of how any arrivals or departures changed the outlook of teams' usage. I try to keep an eye out for anything notable in that department for these posts, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Thanksgiving weekend threw off my cadence of writing these every three weeks, and funnily enough that impacted the numbers for a player I've been planning to write about for a while: De'Von Achane. I've featured him in past years, but his consistency this season has been remarkable with 16.5+ points in 11 of 12 games (and still 12.8 in the outlier).
  
  Being a dual-threat is always helpful in raising running backs' floors, and Achane's 74.32% route participation and 21.18% target share both trail only Christian McCaffrey (82.04% and 24.88%) at the position. This last game is the first time all year that the Dolphins star didn't record a catch, and even that included a wide open screen in the red zone that Tua Tagovailoa missed him on. Achane still finished with 19.4 points thanks to another big day on the ground with 22 carries for 134 yards, and a TD, which made it three straight games with 120+ rushing yards. He is the engine to the offense with 79.17% of the snaps and 71.81% of the RB carries in addition to the passing work, leading to 21.20 points per game for the season.

  Achane broke loose for the tuddy 😮‍💨 @FedEx
  
  NOvsMIA on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/d0E6eaROWc

  — NFL (@NFL) November 30, 2025

  
  
• Like Miami, Seattle's offense is run by a former 49ers assistant, Klint Kubiak, but they are completely different with their RB deployment. Kenneth Walker has played just 47.36% of the snaps, run a route on 37.11% of the drop backs, been given 50.79% of the RB carries, and seen a 7.44% target share resulting in 11.23 points while Zach Charbonnet's numbers in those same categories are 46.77%, 36.45%, 44.01%, 3.46%, and 9.76. Even then, Walker's numbers are slightly inflated by the Week 3 game that Charbonnet missed, but things look a little different if you look at the splits before and after the team's Week 8 bye.
  
  In only the first 6 games when both 'backs played: 41.62% snap rate, 30.37% route participation, 52.32% carry share, 4.91% target share, 9.52 points for Walker compared to 54.32%, 43.46%, 47.68%, 4.29%, and 10.02 for Charbonnet.
  
  In the 5 games since the bye: 53.21%, 44.68%, 48.87%, 11.11%, and 11.94 for Walker versus 37.82%, 26.95%, 39.85%, 2.38%, and 9.46 for Charbonnet. Those aren't gamebreaking numbers for Walker, but it's an encouraging sign, especially with the passing game usage after neither RB were getting practically any work through the air to start the season. These last two games set his season-highs for target share with 16% and 17.39%, and the work was even more in his favor this past week before Charbonnet salted the game away.