Friday, May 8, 2026

Top 2026 NFL Rookie RBs

The NFL Draft has long been over, and I finally finished my first dynasty league rookie draft of the season. That means that now is as good of a time as ever to go through some rookie rankings, starting with the weakest group in this class. There weren't many running backs taken overall and especially not early as a lot of the prospects have question marks. 

I ended up going a bit longer than expected on the clear top runner, but that's reflective of this draft with shorter write ups thereafter. As usual, I'm taking into account three components when evaluating these prospects: their production profile, their athleticism, and where they were drafted. As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides that go over his statistical models and how RBs' speed scores (based on 40 yard dash and weight) are important.

I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's total offensive touchdowns, and his share of the team's receptions in the games that he played. Besides speed score, I'm looking at vertical jumps and broad jumps to get a futher idea of physical traits, and all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic. Finally, the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.


1. Jeremiyah Love - 1st round, 3rd overall, 1st RB drafted - Cardinals

Like last year, this is the easiest start possible given Love's complete profile. You can argue that a team with as many roster needs as Arizona shouldn't take a running back so high (his draft slot will earn him the most guaranteed money at the position in NFL history, for example), but what is a widely held opinion is that he is the best skill position player in this draft. Perhaps even the best player overall.

Love broke out as a 19 year old sophomore on Notre Dame's national runner up team in 2024 with 163 carries for 1,125 yards (6.90 per carry) and 17 touchdowns along with 28 catches for 237 yards and another 2 scores. That resulted in a strong 27.54% touchdown share and 9.46% reception share but just okay 1.34 total yards per team play and 0.53 receiving yards team per pass attempt. This past season, however, he had similar yet improved raw numbers despite fewer games played, and thus his market shares were great across the board.

Carrying the ball 199 times for 1,372 yards (6.89), Love tied the Fighting Irish record with 18 rushing touchdowns, and with his 27 catches for 280 yards and 3 more end zone trips, his 21 total TDs set a new record in the school's long history. He would've also broken the records for most rushing yards and yards from scrimmage had he not been slowed by rib injury in his last game of the season or had the team not been frustratingly left out of the playoff bracket. Altogether, the Doak Walker award winner and Heisman trophy finalist scored 33.33% of the team's offensive TDs, averaged 2.20 TY/P and 0.87 RY/PA, and caught 12.44% of their receptions.

Love showed out at the Combine despite being a lock to be the top RB in this week class, which shows what kind of competitor he is and how confident he is in his athleticism. At 6'0" and 212 pounds, he blazed a 4.36 40 yard dash for an elite 117.33 speed score. He uses that strong frame and competitiveness as a very willing blocker, often leading the way on designed quarterback runs by the goal line that hurt his own scoring numbers. Sharing a backfield with a fellow 1st round pick (see below) didn't help either, and yet he still hits basically every mark. The reception share isn't at the top of the class but is still plenty good as he displayed dynamic ability as a receiver, with his one hander against Texas A&M a good example.

Altogether, Love possesses a three-down skill set with a terrific production profile, high-end physical tools, and about as high of a pedigree as you could get. Not even turning 21 until the end of May, he lands in a situation that isn't necessarily great but could be worse. The offensive line has potential after signing Isaac Seumalo and drafting Chase Bisontis in the 2nd round to improve both guard spots. In the short term, Jacoby Brissett displayed last season that he can run a functional passing game with a strong group of targets in Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson. The selection of Carson Beck in the 3rd round leaves a lot to be desired as a long-term QB to line up next to, but they could have another high draft pick in next year's stronger class. The signing of Tyler Allgeier to go with veteran holdover James Conner and 2024 2nd round pick Trey Benson is what made picking a RB at #3 such a surprising choice. The latter two are coming off of season-ending injuries, though, and have no attachment to a brand new coaching staff in place. They may cap Love's upside as a rookie with something of a committee, but his ascension to one of the league's stars should only be a matter of when, not if.



2. Jadarian Price - 1st round, 32nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Seahawks

Notre Dame made history in the 1st round with this being the first time in the common draft era that the first two RBs selected came from the same school. Love and Price are also just the sixth pair of RB teammates to go in the 1st round and the first since Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (Arkansas) in 2008. Naturally, Price doesn't have a strong production profile given Love's dominance, so there's a lot of projecting needed here.

The main appeal for Price is his big play ability that was on display with his 15 total touchdowns on just 131 touches as a redshirt junior last season. Two of those came on special teams en route to being named a first team All-American kick returner (12 for 450 yards), and two others came as a receiver despite having just 6 catches for 87 yards. Hardly being involved at all in the passing game is the biggest knock for Price as he had paltry reception shares of 2.20%, 1.35%, and 2.76% over his three seasons.

That also resulted in just 0.27 RY/PA and 1.01 TY/P, with a 20.63% touchdown share being the only production metric even close to average in this class, but again, this was always going to be the case next to Love. Price did rank second in the class with 19.22% of his career carries going for 10+ yards, and looking more at physical traits, his Combine performance showed that he is a good, if unspectacular athlete. At 5'10.625" and 203 pounds, his 4.49 40 time was a little surprising given all of his long runs, but it was still enough for a decent speed score of 99.89. The 10'4" broad jump and 35" vertical better displayed his explosiveness, and he put up 21 bench press reps to boot.

What really solidified Price's ranking in this class was Seattle taking him in the 1st round. Possessing a monstrous defense and strong offensive line, the Super Bowl champions love to run the ball, and the 22 year old will have the opportunity to be the Week 1 starter. With Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL in January and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker lost to free agency, Price will be competing with Emanuel Wilson, who only received $1.6 million in free agency after being a Packers backup, and George Holani, who was re-signed for under $1.1 million after mostly playing special teams. Draft capital doesn't always guarantee playing time, but in this situation, the rookie has a great chance to be featured more as a pro than he was in college.

Friday, February 6, 2026

2026 NBA Trade Summaries

Now that the NBA Trade Deadline is officially in the rear view mirror, I wanted to put together a quick summary of every team's net result. Only three teams didn't make any in-season trades while some had a lot to process, so this is a high level view of where everyone ended up. I noted some players that were released in conjunction with moves and even a couple of immediate signings that followed.

Full details of every deal is of course in my tracker if you want to know the contracts, draft picks, trade mechanics involved, and a little bit about why each move was made. Basically, I combed through reports and press releases so that you don't have to and put it all in one place. Lastly, "fake" 2nd rounders are those that are top-55 protected and thus unlikely to convey, and teams are listed in order of championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. I find it interesting to see how active teams were relative to how much of a contender they are, along with the differences in title odds when compared to those with similar records.


Oklahoma City Thunder, 40-12. +135
In: Jared McCain, Mason Plumlee (released), draft rights to Balsa Koprivica (57th pick in 2021)

Out: Ousmane Dieng, one 1st round pick, four 2nd round picks, cash considerations


Denver Nuggets, 33-19. +450
In: one 2nd round pick

Out: Hunter Tyson, one 2nd round pick


Cleveland Cavaliers, 31-21. +1,100
In: James Harden, Dennis Schroder, Keon Ellis, Emanuel Miller (Two-Way), cash considerations

Out: Darius Garland, De'Andre Hunter, Lonzo Ball, Luke Travers (Two-Way, released), four 2nd round picks


New York Knicks, 33-18. +1,300
In: Jose Alvarado

Out: Guerschon Yabusele, two 2nd round picks, cash considerations


Boston Celtics, 33-18. +1,500
In: Nikola Vucevic, John Tonje (Two-Way), one 2nd round pick, one fake 2nd round pick, cash considerations

Out: Anfernee Simons, Xavier Tillman, Josh Minott, Chris Boucher, two 2nd round picks, cash considerations (twice)


Detroit Pistons, 37-13. +1,600
In: Kevin Huerter, Dario Saric, 1st round swap rights

Out: Jaden Ivey, Isaac Jones (released)


San Antonio Spurs, 35-16. +1,600
In: None
Out: None


Houston Rockets, 31-19. +2,200
In: None
Out: None


Minnesota Timberwolves, 32-20. +2,800
In: Ayo Dosunmu, Julian Phillips, Cash considerations

Out: Mike Conley Jr., Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller, 1st round swap rights, four 2nd round picks

Back in after waivers: Mike Conley Jr.

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

2025-2026 NBA Trade Tracker

It took a while, but the NBA trade season is officially here now that the Trae Young deal came together rather quickly. As usual, this post will be constantly updated to serve as a one-stop shop for every trade that happens up until the deadline. 

Like last year's edition, the confirmed salaries come from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac, previously traded draft pick details come from RealGM, and I always make sure to list which reporter was first on the news. The latest deals will be added at the top of the post so that you don't have to keep scrolling to the bottom for updates, and salaries are color-coded based on whether they're player options, team options, or non-guaranteed.


Boston ducks the tax at the buzzer (Shams 2/5)

Hornets receive:
Xavier Tillman$2,546,675
Cash considerations

Celtics receive:
TBD but likely a fake 2nd, old draft rights, or minimal cash
2030 Hornets 2nd round pick (protected 31-55)

I was wondering why Boston would do the Minott deal and not have a follow up trade lined up to get out of the luxury tax completely, but it turns out there was one last deal to be reported an hour after the deadline passed. As long as the teams were in the queue to make the trade call into the league office by noon PST today, trades can go through.

The actual money saved here probably won't be a lot more than the reported $3.5 million that Charlotte is receiving now that so many teams got out of the tax to lower the league distribution. However, Boston making these moves could be important since it starts the path towards resetting the repeater penalty. They were taxpayers in each of the last three seasons to trigger that, so they'll need to also avoid the tax next season in order to not be penalized at such harsh rates in '27-28. The fact that they were able to get all the way from the Second Apron to this point and still be tied for 2nd in the East with no Jayson Tatum is pretty remarkable.

Update: The Hornets' official press release is out to confirm that it's a 2nd rounder with maximum protections that they're sending out, as expected.


Milwaukee re-routes Richards (Shams 2/5)

Bulls receive:
Nick Richards$5,000,000

Bucks receive:
Ousmane Dieng$6,670,882

This will technically end up being a three-way trade with Phoenix's involvement below, but the main point is that Milwaukee is ending up with Dieng instead of Richards, who provides some much needed center help to Chicago.


Charlotte and Dallas flip new guards (Shams 2/5)

Mavericks receives:
Tyus Jones$7,000,000

Charlotte receives:
Malaki Branham$4,962,033

Even with both of these guards being acquired just yesterday, they can be traded here since it's a one for one deal without being aggregated. It makes sense, too, since Dallas could really use a set up man and now have more financial flexibility than over the summer. Fischer added that Jones was their main target over Russell but couldn't afford him at the time.

Charlotte didn't really have a need for another point guard, so this was probably to save a little bit of salary and get a look at the younger Branham, whom I liked as a mid-1st rounder coming out of Ohio State. Still only 22, he brings more size at guard to help replace Connaughton, who was waived as part of the Jones trade.

Update: Reading the press release, this technically got looped into the Mavs-Wizards trade that originally landed Branham in Dallas. I don't think that changes the trade mechanics, and Mavericks' Trade Exception worth Hardy's $6,000,000 should stay intact.


Indiana gets their center (Fischer that it was close, Shams and Siegel the deal 2/5)

Pacers receive: $20,756,880 total
Ivica Zubac$18,102,000$19,550,160$20,998,320
Kobe Brown$2,654,880

Clippers receive: $16,787,573 total
Bennedict Mathurin$9,187,573
Isaiah Jackson$7,600,000$7,000,000$6,400,000
2026 Pacers 1st round pick (protected 1-4 and 10-30, then becomes 2031 1st)
2029 Pacers 1st round pick
2028 Mavericks 2nd round pick

I don't think we've ever seen so many lottery teams be buyers (and all for big men), but since Zubac is on such a great contract, I get it in this case. Including this year's protected pick is fascinating since Indiana currently has the third-best lottery odds. If they stay in that position, then L.A. will have a 47.86% chance of the pick dropping to #5, #6, or #7, otherwise it will become an unprotected 1st five years from now instead of just rolling over to next year like most protections. I suppose the Clippers preferred it this way to try to maintain lottery upside given the uncertainty of the team that far down the line compared to them likely returning to playoff status next season. The back-end protections don't seem likely to come into play since the Pacers would have to drop to the 6th spot in the lottery standings to even have a 0.15% chance of dropping to #10. The 7th spot would have a 1.33% chance of the pick dropping far enough and then 7.13% if in the 8th position, but it is still a pretty creative set up to have here just in case. 

The Pacers aren't like the Jazz or Wizards, of course, since they were just a game away from winning the Finals last season before having to take this gap year due to Tyrese Haliburton's torn Achilles. Now they've locked in his new pick and roll partner with a 28 year old (29 next month) who also made 2nd team All-Defense. And they could still add a top-4 pick (in a great draft) to this core with their odds basically coming down to a coin flip pending any big movement in the standings. Gozlan did point out the nearly $800K bonus that Zubac will get from his trade kicker, so I think this is how his salaries will now look:

Ivica Zubac$18,893,980$20,342,140$21,790,300

The Clippers 1st rounder that the Thunder own just got dangerously good again after they had been on a hot streak, but that was a sunk cost for them anyway. After making the Harden trade, cashing in on Zu at the likely peak of his value makes sense with the upside of this return. 

In addition to the draft picks, Mathurin is nice get since he's only 23, averaging a career-high 17.8 points, and will be a restricted free agent. He didn't fit into Indy's long-term plans with the other money that they owe and the luxury tax basically acting as a hard cap for them, but he has a ton of talent and had his moments in their Finals run. I've never been particularly high on Jackson, but he does have strong rebounding rates. His shot blocking has seen big a dip in this first year back from his torn Achilles, though, so the money owed to him could be seen as negative.

Saturday, December 6, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 10-13 in 2025

This is now the home stretch of the NFL season with fantasy players going into the final week of the regular season and the real life teams fighting for playoff positioning. The trade deadline is now firmly in the rearview mirror, so we have an idea of how any arrivals or departures changed the outlook of teams' usage. I try to keep an eye out for anything notable in that department for these posts, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • Thanksgiving weekend threw off my cadence of writing these every three weeks, and funnily enough that impacted the numbers for a player I've been planning to write about for a while: De'Von Achane. I've featured him in past years, but his consistency this season has been remarkable with 16.5+ points in 11 of 12 games (and still 12.8 in the outlier).

    Being a dual-threat is always helpful in raising running backs' floors, and Achane's 74.32% route participation and 21.18% target share both trail only Christian McCaffrey (82.04% and 24.88%) at the position. This last game is the first time all year that the Dolphins star didn't record a catch, and even that included a wide open screen in the red zone that Tua Tagovailoa missed him on. Achane still finished with 19.4 points thanks to another big day on the ground with 22 carries for 134 yards, and a TD, which made it three straight games with 120+ rushing yards. He is the engine to the offense with 79.17% of the snaps and 71.81% of the RB carries in addition to the passing work, leading to 21.20 points per game for the season.
  • Like Miami, Seattle's offense is run by a former 49ers assistant, Klint Kubiak, but they are completely different with their RB deployment. Kenneth Walker has played just 47.36% of the snaps, run a route on 37.11% of the drop backs, been given 50.79% of the RB carries, and seen a 7.44% target share resulting in 11.23 points while Zach Charbonnet's numbers in those same categories are 46.77%, 36.45%, 44.01%, 3.46%, and 9.76. Even then, Walker's numbers are slightly inflated by the Week 3 game that Charbonnet missed, but things look a little different if you look at the splits before and after the team's Week 8 bye.

    In only the first 6 games when both 'backs played: 41.62% snap rate, 30.37% route participation, 52.32% carry share, 4.91% target share, 9.52 points for Walker compared to 54.32%, 43.46%, 47.68%, 4.29%, and 10.02 for Charbonnet.

    In the 5 games since the bye: 53.21%, 44.68%, 48.87%, 11.11%, and 11.94 for Walker versus 37.82%, 26.95%, 39.85%, 2.38%, and 9.46 for Charbonnet. Those aren't gamebreaking numbers for Walker, but it's an encouraging sign, especially with the passing game usage after neither RB were getting practically any work through the air to start the season. These last two games set his season-highs for target share with 16% and 17.39%, and the work was even more in his favor this past week before Charbonnet salted the game away.

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-9 in 2025

The NFL regular season is now halfway over, so how teams are utilizing their players is pretty established by this point. Still, there are always some notable changes with players' opportunities, whether by a lineup change, a teammate's injury, or in one case here, a return from suspension. That's what's covered here, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • After being suspended the first six games of the season, Rashee Rice has immediately made a huge impact. Despite only being in on 40.74% of the snaps and 47.50% of the drop backs in a blowout win his first game, he wasn't exactly eased in with a 29.41% target share leading to two touchdowns and 23.2 PPR points.

    Over the next two games, Rice was back to a full-time player with snap rates of 85.51% and 81.67% and route participation rates of 82.93% and 79.49%. His target shares have technically gone down to 28.13% and 24.14%, but those are of course still strong numbers leading to 27.37% overall. He's even getting some carries near the goal line for more scoring opportunities to go along with his coveted slot role (about 40% of snaps) that leads to so many layup looks, so his 22.43 points per game so far looks sustainable.
  • Things finally normalized this past game, but Ja'Marr Chase has been seeing absurd volume since Joe Flacco joined the Bengals. Overall through four games together, last year's receiving Triple Crown winner has a 38.04% target share while playing 98.88% of the snaps and running a route on 98.90% of the drop backs for 25.35 points per game. Before "only" having 8 targets last game (17.78%), that was a 45.76% target share, and with Flacco letting it fly so often (43.25 attempts per game), it translated to 18 targets per game.

    This stretch has brought Chase's overall season averages to 20.86 points, a 94.95% snap rate, 96.69% route participation, and a 33.75% target share (resulting in 11.89 looks). For comparison, in last year's historic season, those numbers were 23.71, 92.69%, 97.79%, and 27.87% (10.29), so he's still managed to get by with sheer volume to offset losing Joe Burrow's efficiency.

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 4-6 in 2025

It's hard to believe that Week 7 is already here! With another three weeks in the books since my last look at player usage, there is now a decent sample size for this NFL season so far. We now have a pretty solid idea of how teams are utilizing their players, so these are observations around that, including any recent changes.

As I said last time, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).


  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is off to a scintillating start to the season with a league-leading 696 yards through six games, and the underlying numbers are even more impressive. I noted in Week 1 how absurd his 59.09% target share was, and this past week he saw over half of Seattle's looks again with a 54.17% mark. Overall on the season, he is averaging 21.45 points while playing 73.8% of the snaps, running a route on 89.2% of the drop backs, and seeing a 36.36% target share.

    With that incredible volume is also coming record-breaking efficiency as JSN is averaging 4.43 yards per route run. If he keeps that up for the whole season, it would eclipse Tyreek Hill's 3.72 mark in 2023 as the highest in PFF's history. To put things in perspective, Smith-Njigba has the aforementioned NFL lead in receiving yards despite the Seahawks ranking 31st in pass attempts per game with 27.3, barely ahead of the Ravens' 27.2 average at the bottom.
  • If I was writing this a week ago, Puka Nacua would probably be my opener since he had 588 yards through five games to JSN's 534, but the Rams star unfortunately got hurt near the end of the first half on Sunday and despite returning for some plays later, will miss the next game. Still, he's also been off to an amazing start with 3.42 YPRR and heavy usage. Nacua is averaging 23.13 points with a 75.98% snap rate, 81.08% route participation, and 31.71% target share, and before this down week those numbers were 26.80, 80%, 84.97%, and 34.64%.

    As usual, L.A.'s offense is highly condensed, and that's led to Davante Adams also seeing a 26.83% target share even with Nacua's dominance. That's only led to 13.93 points per game so far, but he could explode against the Jaguars' up and down secondary as the #1 target this week. He was already playing 84.33% of the snaps and running a route on 91.89% of the drop backs, but the target share could get even higher. 


  • Since Atlanta's coaching staff came from L.A., their offense is also pretty condensed, and Drake London and Bijan Robinson really showed that on Monday Night Football when they combined for nearly 400 yards by themselves. Staying at WR to start, London pulled a JSN and had a 51.61% target share in that game (he was the only Falcons WR to record a catch) and 31.8 points to bring his season averages to 17.34 points, 88.34% of the snaps, 93.30% route participation, and a 32.92% target share. It's worth noting that Darnell Mooney missed this game again, but this is no outlier for London after he finished last season with 16.88, 94.01%, 94.59%, and 30.10% rates.

    Even with all of Robinson's accolades so far, his season still might not be getting as much attention as it deserves. He's averaging 24.84 points while playing 74.64% of the snaps, running a route on 75.42% of the the drop backs, seeing 58.04% of the RB carries, and earning a 19.25% target share, huge for the position. Robinson is averaging 67.6 receiving yards per game on top of his 96.8 yards on the ground, putting him on pace to join Roger Craig, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey as just the fourth player to have a 1,000-1,000 season.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 1-3 in 2025

We are now fully back! I'm not going to be writing these type of posts as often this season since things can change so much week to week in the NFL, but being three weeks in now gives us a decent sample size to look at. These deep dives are meant to look beyond the regular box scores and instead focus on how teams are utilizing their skill position players. These underlying peripherals can often be a better indicator of what is to come than the raw numbers that have been put up so far.

Like last year, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • Let's start with arguably the best player in fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey. The only thing ever stopping him from being the #1 pick each year are questions about his health, and despite a calf scare right before Week 1, he's ironically been one of the only healthy 49ers so far. And the team definitely isn't worried about trying to preserve him as the dual-threat RB once again has an elite role.

    Through three games, McCaffrey has played 81.13% of the snaps, run a route on 81.60% of the drop backs, been given. 75.36% of the RB carries, and seen an absurd 29.09% target share. Once more for emphasis: he's getting the targeted at the rate of an elite WR as a running back! As a result, he's averaging 23.3 points per game despite not finding the end zone on the ground yet and only scoring one receiving touchdown. The target share will come down once more receiving options get healthy, but with the track record that both this offense and he has, the TDs will come.
  • A more split backfield is happening in Houston, and it's been interesting to see the progression of the group. The Texans initially had four RBs see at least 7 snaps in Week 1 before making Dameon Pierce inactive in Week 2, and now in Week 3 it was down to just two 'backs getting snaps.

    Veteran Nick Chubb has been solid with a consistent role, playing over half the snaps in all three games (52% overall) with his route participation rate progressing from 26.47% to 30% to 39.53% (32.71% overall). That's led to an increase in target share from 3.7% to 8.7% to 11.11% (8.14% overall) to go along getting 66.67% of the RB carries, resulting in 9.4 points per game.

    Chubb's never been a big contributor in the passing game, though, so more intriguing is the role increase for rookie Woody Marks, who I was high on in this class as a pass-catcher. From snaps (11.11% to 26.53% to 47.62%) to routes (8.82% to 23.33% to 44.19%) to RB carry share (14.29% to 20% to 40%) to target share (0% to 4.35% to 5.56%), his usage numbers have gone up across the board week over week. If this can stay around an even split with Marks getting most of the receiving work, he could become an underrated contributor.