I guess it's that time of year already! I typically make this post after the NBA draft, but now that deals started pouring in over the weekend, I'm starting now and will just add draft day moves in here.
This will be constantly updated throughout the summer, so I'll be adding the latest news at the top to be readily available upon revisiting the page instead of always having to scroll down. Or in other words, it goes in chronological order from the bottom up.
As usual, players already under contract have their figures listed based on Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com while salaries in bold italics are my own estimates based on reported numbers and the standard 5% or 8% raises that the teams could give. Salaries are also color coded if they are a player option, a team option, not fully guaranteed based on the reporting, with parentheses to credit whoever broke the news and when.
The Giannis saga is FINALLY over (Shams 6/22)
Heat receive:
Bucks receive:
Miami lands its white whale at long last. They've been linked to a potential move for the Greak Freak going back to 2020, in part due to Bam Adebayo sharing the same agent as Antetokounmpo. I remember back then they were saving potential cap space and didn't finalize his rookie extension until it was clear that Giannis was also extending with Milwaukee. Now after constantly being linked to other stars on the trade block before being unwilling to give up too much, the Heat go all out to land the former Finals MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, and two-time MVP.
The deal ended up mostly being what was the expected structure with the four outgoing salaries combining for $47.44 million, which is just over the $46.57 million needed to match Antetokounmpo's $58.46 million, and then Portis fitting into the $16.8 million Duncan Robinson Trade Exception as somewhat of a surprise. That will hard-cap Miami at the First Apron as they try to fill out the roster by re-signing Norman Powell and/or using the MLE and BAE. Depending on whether Andrew Wiggins picks up his $30,169,644 player option or declines it to sign for more years at a lower salary, things could get a little tight.
They will lack depth after sending out their 1st round selections from each of the past three years along with their second-leading scorer, but this will make them even more of a free agent destination for veterans on the minimum. If Wiggins and Powell are back with the team, a lineup of them, Antetokounmpo, Adebayo, and either Davion Mitchell or Pelle Larsson has two-way upside but could use more shooting. Nikola Jovic and Dru Smith returning to form in that area would be huge along with potentially bringing back Simone Fontecchio if possible under the First Apron, but replenishing the back court will clearly be the priority after what was sent out here. Although Portis could be considered a salary dump in the deal now that he's 31, he shot an impressive 45.6% on 4.4 threes last year to be the type of stretch big that Miami always likes to have to pair with Adebayo and now Antetokounmpo, and he was a long-time fan favorite in Milwaukee.
The Bucks drawing this out for so ridiculously long took away some of their leverage since Giannis could dictate which teams he's willing to extend with now that he's going into the last guaranteed year of his contract, and that's where the shared agent with Bam likely helped. Still, they did pretty well here after pitting the Heat and Celtics into a bidding war. It seemed like Herro might end up on a third team to add more assets for a rebuild, but the latest reporting indicated that ownership might have been getting involved and preferred to try to stay competitive, which is what could make Boston package featuring Jaylen Brown more appealing. Remember, Milwaukee doesn't have control of their own 1st round picks until 2031 due to the Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard trades, so an all-out tank isn't really an option.
Herro is a flawed player, but the former All-Star's scoring, passing, and spacing can pair well with Ryan Rollins in their back court to help them perhaps try to make a Play-In push (even if it is somewhat foolhardy), and the fact that he's a Milwaukee native could help them re-sign him at a reasonable number. Since this deal won't become official until the new league year due to Miami's current proximity to the First Apron, there is still the potential that it could expand with him heading elsewhere by July 6th, of course. Jaquez was a close runner up for the Sixth Man of the Year award after averaging 15.4 points, 5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists in 28.3 minutes off the bench, and now he could have a chance to become a regular starter as he heads into the last year of his rookie contract.
Ware is an exciting 22 year old who has shown an ability to shoot from the outside in addition to being a big interior presence, which is the type of valuable big man that they thought they were getting in the ill-fated Myles Turner signing. In only 22.1 minutes last year, he averaged 11.1 points, 9 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 0.8 steals while shooting 39.5% on 3 threes, and the rebounding in particular stands out with a 29.2% defensive rebound rate and 13.1% overall rebound rate. Jakucionis didn't have a consistent role as a rookie but acquitted himself pretty well in the minutes he did get with 42.3% three point shooting and 5.2 assists per 36 minutes against just 1.9 turnovers, and he only turned 20 last month. Fischer adds that the Heat not wanting to include the young guard was part of what took so long for the deal to get done.
The Bucks are getting a locked in lottery pick in tomorrow's deep class and then pushed out the other picks until Antetokounmpo's age 35, 36, and 38 seasons to try to have the upside of more shots at lottery picks. The first of those years is only a swap, but with the extremely flattened odds of the new lottery system (if it's still in place by then since it was only ratified through 2029) those kind of swap rights have even more value than before since the drawings will be so volatile. If the Celtics really were offering two 1st round picks in addition to Brown, as Shams reported after this trade, it could certainly be argued that they should have taken that deal, but one of those might have just been the #27 pick tomorrow. Miami's quantity of picks, including one right in the range of players that Milwaukee's been scouting for their #10 pick, and players 26 and under does have its own appeal compared to the 30 year old Brown on a 35% max salary for a non-contender. They also stand to create a large Trade Exception equal to the difference between Antetokounmpo and Herro, $25,456,566, to add more to this return.
Dosunmu to re-sign with the Timberwolves: 5 years, $112 million (Shams 6/22)
Bringing Dosunmu back was already a huge priority, especially with DiVincenzo unfortunately expected to miss at least the majority of the season with a torn Achilles, and the Timberwolves gave him a fifth year player option to secure the signature. The deal may be a bit rich, but the 26 year old should be able to maintain his value given how consistent he's been the last few years.
Minnesota, Brooklyn, and Chicago combine for three-team stunner (Shams 6/22)
Bulls receive:
Nets receive:
Timberwolves receive:
#33 pick
The day before the draft has brought about a lot of action, and this biggest move yet seemingly came out of nowhere. Randle was rumored to be available given his poor playoff showing and Minnesota's salary crunch, but I had not seen anything linking him to Brooklyn before this, nor Claxton to Chicago. I can see the appeal to varying degrees from all three sides, though. It won't be able to become official until the new league year since both the Nets and especially the Bulls will need to use their large amounts of cap space to facilitate this.
It's unclear what exactly Chicago is sending out since they have to give up something (likely cash, old draft rights, or a fake 2nd that's top-55 protected), but the main thing here is that they're seemingly adding Claxton for free. Given their need at center, his skill, and his solid contract, that is a great use of their cap room, and they still project to have over $30 million of it left after this.
Claxton for Randle would have been cap legal during this league year, but the combination of Claxton's salary declining from $25,541,760 and Randle's increasing from $30,864,198 means that Brooklyn will need to use space to add this much salary unless they end up sending out additional money. If Michael Porter Jr. doesn't end up traded, I guess this means that he'll be playing small forward pretty exclusively with Randle's arrival and Day'Ron Sharpe presumably moving into the starting center role after having his team option picked up. They also have Noah Clowney and Danny Wolf in the front court, so there are a few ways that this rotation could shake out. I guess they wanted more of an offensive force, but I'm a bit surprised that they swapped out lefties to get 4.5 years older and more expensive while only moving up five spots late in the 1st round.
Finally, this feels like Minnesota might have another move coming after this. Perhaps they're just opening up a starting spot for Naz Reid and clearing salary so that they can more easily re-sign Ayo Dosunmu (whom they got in another deal with Chicago, funnily enough) without having to worry about the luxury tax. However, this creates a huge Trade Exception worth Randle's $33,333,334, so they have some nice flexibility now. It would have been nice to get something in return for a three-time All-Star, but not having to pay more than this trivial draft swap to get off of that much money is something of a win.
Update: Jake Fischer reports that the Bulls are sending Mo Gueye to the Wolves to complete the deal, which means that his team option is being picked up to simply be non-guaranteed instead. Minnesota can just take him in via the Minimum Exception, so this shouldn't eat into the TE they're creating.
Diawara to re-sign with the Knicks: "multiyear" deal, $10+ million (Shams 6/22)
Not having the total amount of years here really limits the initial analysis. It could be a four year deal at the minimum using Non-Bird Rights since New York only signed him to a one year deal after drafting him with the 51st pick last year, or (less likely in my opinion), it could be for two years using the Taxpayer MLE, which would hard-cap them at the Second Apron. The latter would be a questionable use of resources given their other free agents, but the former would be a good deal that's mostly standard for restricted free agents with such little service time, especially if there are non-guarantees and/or team options involved.
The 21 year old had a surprisingly good rookie season for being such a late pick, seeing action in 69 regular season games and 6 more in the playoffs. He had pretty limited minutes, but his per-36 minute averages of 14 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal with 1.7 turnovers are not too shabby. Diawara even made 36.9% of his threes on 7.4 attempts per-36, so he could be a rotation level forward on a cheap deal going forward (assuming it's the Non-Bird Rights option).
Young to re-sign with the Wizards: 4 years, $212 million (Shams 6/22)
After declining his $48,967,380 player option for this season, Young did not end up needing to take much of a haircut at all to add more guaranteed years based on this reported number. The Wizards could have offered him up to 5 years and a projected $287.1 million (or $221.76 million over the first 4 years), but this is just about equivalent to the 30% max contract (4 years, $212.85 million) that other teams could have offered.
It didn't seem like there would be that much of a market for Young with so few cap space teams (likely only the Bulls, Lakers, and Nets) and not much of a demand for him this past season considering he was traded for just McCollum and Corey Kispert with no picks involved. I wouldn't imagine that his stock rose much after playing just five games with Washington after the trade as he dealt with nagging injuries and they tanked for the worst record, but I guess the team really does hold him in high esteem and wasn't just buying low as a value play. The usually reliable Marc Stein reported earlier this month that a deal of around 3 years, $120 million was expected, which I thought made sense, so I'm pretty surprised that it ended up being this big.
Update: As more reports have come in, it does sound like this deal was meant to match what other teams could offer, so I'll lay out that structure with a higher starting salary and smaller raises, which could be beneficial for Washington since they don't have to worry about the luxury tax in the short term.
JP Finlay reports that Young's market improved with the new lottery reform and more teams looking to compete, so he did potentially have suitors for a max contract. I should also note that Travis Schlenk, who ran the Hawks at the start of Young's career, now has a role in the Wizards front office, which likely contributed to their trade. And if any executive was to really view him as a max player still, it would be him after they had that surprising run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021, which remains the only time Young's made it out of the First Round.
Atlanta adds wing depth (Shams 6/21)
Hawks receive:
Thunder receive:
2030 Hawks 2nd round pick
2032 2nd round pick (lesser of Hawks or Lakers)
Atlanta has an $11 million trade exception from sending out Luke Kennard at the trade deadline, so that can easily be used here to pick up a useful wing on a good contract. Using that TE will hard cap them at the First Apron, but that shouldn't be an issue since they don't tend to even go across the luxury tax line. This further indicates that they'll operate as an over the cap team, as mentioned below.
Yossi Gozlan and and Bobby Marks noted that this projects to save around $61-64 million off of Oklahoma City's tax bill depending on what else they do this summer. That is certainly not a small sum for a team that is going to be very expensive over the next handful of years as contenders with three max contracts, so that alone makes this an understandable move for them even before adding two more 2nd rounders. Wiggins himself was the 55th pick back in 2021 and became a tremendous developmental story from a Two-Way contract to rotation regular and fill-in starter. His role fluctuated a bit in different playoff rounds, but he is a career 38% three point shooter on solid volume with nice passing and defensive chops. While that kind of player will be missed, especially after helping to build OKC's culture, they have plenty of perimeter depth to backfill his minutes.
