Wednesday, January 7, 2026

2025-2026 NBA Trade Tracker

It took a while, but the NBA trade season is officially here now that the Trae Young deal came together rather quickly. As usual, this post will be constantly updated to serve as a one-stop shop for every trade that happens up until the deadline. 

Like last year's edition, the confirmed salaries come from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac, previously traded draft pick details come from RealGM, and I always make sure to list which reporter was first on the news. The latest deals will be added at the top of the post so that you don't have to keep scrolling to the bottom for updates, and salaries are color-coded based on whether they're player options, team options, or non-guaranteed.


Hawks add center depth (Shams 2/4)

Hawks receive:
Jock Landale$2,296,274

Jazz receive:
Cash considerations

Atlanta needed a backup big man with Porzingis' status often in doubt and N'Faly Dante out for the season, and Utah has plenty of depth, along with a need for a roster spot for the trade below. Sometimes it's that easy.
 

Cleveland sheds more salary (Shams 2/4)

Jazz receive:
Lonzo Ball$10,000,000$10,000,000
2028 2nd round pick
2032 2nd round pick

Cavaliers receive:
TBD but likely a fake 2nd or old draft rights

This saves Cleveland $65 million in luxury tax payments, per Gozlan, and they're pretty close to getting out of the Second Apron even. This also creates a nice Trade Exception, likely for next year's roster building.

Even with yesterday's big trade, Utah still had flexibility under the tax to take on a contract like this, likely via the rest of the Collins TE, in order to add more draft picks, with these being the last two that Cleveland had to trade. With next year a team option, it's expected that Ball will be waived and free to join a contender, though his production this year has taken an unfortunate nosedive.
 

L.A. and Toronto shed salary (Shams 2/4)

Raptors receive:
Chris Paul$2,296,274

Nets receive:
Ochai Agbaji$6,383,525
2032 Raptors 2nd round pick
Cash considerations

Clippers receive:
TBD but likely a fake 2nd or old draft rights
Vanja Marinkovic (60th pick in 2019)

This gets the Raptors under the luxury tax line while trimming the Clippers' tax bill after their franchise legend was sent home from the team earlier in the season. Shams is already reporting that Paul is not expected to report to the team as they discuss another home for him.

As soon as I pressed update with my speculation on L.A.'s return, Fischer added which former draft pick it was. This deal is really just about the $7 million or so in tax payments, with Haynes reporting that they're sending Brooklyn $3.5 million to facilitate this, and clearing space under their First Apron hard cap to convert the Two-Way contracts of Kobe Sanders and Jordan Miller.


Charlotte picks up former UNC guard (Shams first, Siegel on the three-way 2/4)

Hornets receive: $23,662,927 total (sent out $21,271,274)
Coby White$12,888,889
Mike Conley$10,774,038
TBD Thunder 2nd round pick

Bulls receive: $25,645,882 (sent out $23,662,927)
Collin Sexton$18,975,000
Ousmane Dieng$6,670,882
2029 2nd round pick (Lesser of Hornets or Nuggets)
2031 Nuggets 2nd round pick
2031 Knicks 2nd round pick

Thunder receive: $2,296,274 total (sent out $6,670,882)
Mason Plumlee$2,296,274

OKC needed to clear a roster spot for McCain, so they'll likely execute this first, immediately waive Plumlee, and then do the Philly trade. The difference in Dieng's and Plumlee's salaries, $4,374,608, matches perfectly with McCain's $4,221,360 to keep them from going into the tax, and since Plumlee can be taken into the Minimum Exception, they should create a Trade Exception worth all of Dieng's salary. They would then likely use the MLE to take in McCain and leave that new TE since it would have a longer shelf life of a full year.

Like with Saric, Chicago is able to re-trade Conley immediately since he's not technically being aggregated here: the two for two trade can work as two separate one for one trades. As I speculated yesterday, there's already talk from Fischer and Brett Siegel that he could get bought out, and now that he's been traded again, he could technically return to Minnesota.

This might end up as two separate transactions for Charlotte with them first using part of their MLE to take in Dieng, and then sending him to Chicago. Since they likely won't be using the MLE, I believe doing it that way is most beneficial to create a Trade Exception worth the difference in Sexton's and Conley's salaries, $8,200,962. Doing it as a three-way deal would preserve the MLE but only create a TE worth Plumlee's minimum contract.



OKC adds another guard (Shams 2/4)

Thunder receive:
Jared McCain$4,221,360$4,422,600$6,784,268

76ers receive:
2026 Rockets 1st round pick (protected 1-4, then becomes 2026 2nd)
2027 2nd round pick (Best of Heat, Pacers Rockets, or Thunder)
2028 Bucks 2nd round pick
2028 Thunder 2nd round pick

I thought that the reigning champs might add another forward instead of a guard since they already have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, and Isaiah Joe, but this could just be a value that they thought they couldn't pass up. They were looking at having three or four 1st round picks in this coming draft (from the Clippers, Rockets, 76ers, and maybe the Jazz, with their own going to Dallas), so moving the Houston one for a more known commodity who can help the current campaign makes a ton of sense.

It's a little funny that Oklahoma City have Philadelphia's 1st rounder but instead gave them Houston's since they have a better record right now, along with three 2nd rounders, whose details were first reported by Fischer. Philly bailing on McCain so quickly after the fast start to his career last season before he went down with a torn meniscus is surprising but not a total shock after the additions of VJ Edgecombe and Quentin Grimes since then. Now they are out of the luxury tax, no longer out a 1st rounder in this draft, and have a roster spot to convert Dominick Barlow's Two-Way after his emergence as a regular starter for them.


Washington makes it back to back days with a shocker (Shams 2/4)

Wizards receive: $68,107.724 total
Anthony Davis$54,126,450$58,456,566$62,786,682
Jaden Hardy$6,000,000$6,000,000$6,000,000
D'Angelo Russell$5,685,000$5,969,250
Dante Exum$2,296,274

Mavericks receive: $43,645,083 total
Khris Middleton$33,296,296
Malaki Branham$4,962,033
AJ Johnson$3,090,480$3,237,120$5,493,394
Marvin Bagley III$2,296,274
2026 Thunder 1st round pick
2030 Warriors 1st round pick (protected 1-20, then becomes 2030 2nd)
2026 Suns 2nd round pick
2027 Bulls 2nd round pick
2029 Rockets 2nd round pick

I guess the new trend for rebuilding teams is to make their big moves at the deadline when they have more flexibility than competitors will have in the summer. I wonder how many games we'll actually see with Trae and AD together this season as they recover from their respective injuries, but it could be a dynamic pick and roll partnership down the line. 

This gets Dallas out of the luxury tax this season in addition to restocking their barren stock of draft picks. The 1st rounders lack upside, but this at least helps make up for the fact that they likely won't control their own 1st between 2027-2030. The '27 pick is only top-2 protected, they owe pick swaps in '28 and '30, and the '29 pick is gone outright, though they have the Lakers' 1st rounder that year. They also didn't have 2nd round picks in 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2031 before this either.

Even the trade mechanics of this are similar to yesterday's Jackson deal with Dallas creating a large Trade Exception (the difference in salary between Davis and Middelton, $20,830,154) and Washington needing to use their own Exceptions to take back the smaller pieces. All four players they're sending out were needed to salary match with Davis, and then Hardy will likely go into the Jonas Valanciunas TE (that was going to expire tomorrow), Russell probably eats into the Kelly Olynyk TE (leaving $7,760,122 left), and Exum into the Minimum Exception.


L.A. and Cleveland swap guards (Mannix had first news 2/2; Shams the deal 2/3)

Cavaliers receive:
James Harden$39,182,693$42,317,307

Clippers receive:
Darius Garland$39,446,090$42,166,510$44,886,930
2026 2nd round pick

Cleveland being the team to concede draft compensation is really surprising given the 10.5 year age difference, so they must have really been worried about Garland's health. The near identical salaries make this pretty straightforward otherwise, with Harden waiving his implicit no trade clause and most of his trade bonus to facilitate this. I believe he'll only get bumped up to the same salary as Garland since Cleveland is an Apron team who can't take back more salary than they're sending out. I've listed his player option as purple since even if he picks it up, it's only guaranteed for $13,317,307 until July 11th, but there could be an understanding that they will guarantee all of it (or give him a new deal after opting out).

After missing the first seven games of the season following surgery on his left big toe, Garland has now missed the last nine games with a sprain to his right big toe, in addition to other time missed in between. In the 26 games he has been able to play, his shooting is a tick down, particularly from 3 (36% compared to 39.2% on the basically same amount of attempts), but his per minute stats are about the same as the prior four seasons, aka since he made his first All-Star team. There's definitely a chance that L.A. was just gifted a core piece of their long-term future if he can get past the various maladies that have been problematic in recent years.

The timing of Harden wanting out is pretty crazy since Mannix first broke the story last night when the Clippers were on a 17-4 stretch after starting the season a dreadful 6-21. The Cavs are on an 8-2 run in their own right, though, and being on more stable ground in the playoff picture thanks to residing in the East could give The Beard more reasonable hope of attaining his first title. Based on the two guards' play and availability this year, it's fair to say that Cleveland got a short term upgrade as they try to maximize their window of contention before Donovan Mitchell could potentially opt out in 2027, which could dovetail with the end of Harden's current contract. We will see just how long this new partnership lasts as Harden joins his fifth team in the past six seasons.


Boston adds more size (Shams 2/3)

Celtics receive:
Nikola Vucevic$21,481,481
2027 Nuggets 2nd round pick

Bulls receive:
Anfernee Simons$27,678,571
2026 2nd round pick (Best of
 Knicks, Pelicans Timberwolves, or Trailblazers)

Neemias Queta and Luka Garza have done an admirable job at center for Boston, but this deal gives them more experience in addition to shaving around $20+ million off of their luxury tax bill. And if they can shed about $6 million more in salary, they could get out of the tax completely. Starting with their summer trades of Jrue Holiday and Krisptaps Porzingis, this is like the opposite of the old "trade a paperclip for..." sequence. As Gozlan pointed out on Twitter, Vucevic fits almost perfectly into the Porzingis Trade Exception, so now they can create a new, even bigger TE worth Simons' salary.

Chicago is getting a pretty good draft pick to help them out since it will likely be near the very start of the 2nd round thanks to New Orleans being so bad (with the details via Keith Smith). They now have an absolute logjam at guard between their moves, but I expect that they're not done dealing yet, with Coby White (and to some extent Ayo Dosunmu) in a lot of rumors.


Guards get swapped around the midwest (Shams 2/3)

Bulls receive: $20,881,201 total ($23,417,471 sent out)
Mike Conley$10,774,038
Jaden Ivey$10,107,163

Pistons receive: $23,417,471 total ($10,774,038 sent out)
Kevin Huerter$17,991,071
Dario Saric$5,426,400
Right to swap 2026 1st round picks with the Wolves

Timberwolves receive: $0 total ($10,774,038 sent out)
Cash considerations

I'm still waiting on more news about what Minnesota is getting out of this, but for now they're still just above the luxury tax line if taking no salary back. Detroit had a lot of flexibility under the tax to make an uneven trade like this, and I think they're using part of the Schroder Trade Exception to take in Saric in order to get a small jump at the end of the 1st round. As of this morning, the Pistons hold the #29 pick while the Wolves own #23 to make that a worthy proposition.

Although Huerter isn't as dynamic of a trade target as I expected for them to add offensive reinforcements, he is a 37.1% career 3-point shooter on 5.6 attempts in 27.8 minutes. That's down to just 31.4% this season, so hopefully he has a post-trade bounce back like last season when he went from 30.2% with the Kings to 37.6% with the Bulls.

In theory, Ivey would've been that more explosive force to help take pressure off of Cade Cunningham, but after missing the end of last year with a broken fibula and the start of this season with a minor knee injury, it kind of seemed like that ship had sailed. He's only averaged 16.8 minutes in 33 games, almost exclusively off the bench, so a trade ahead of restricted free agency this summer made sense. I thought that Detroit might get more for him, but instead Chicago gets a nice test drive before a potential deal.

This is another sneakily nice move by the Bulls to actually take on a little money for once in order to add value. They don't have much need for a veteran like Conley, especially with all of the guards they already have, so I wonder where he might end up. If bought out, it would be cool to see him try for his first ring with his fellow 2007 top-10 picks Kevin Durant and Jeff Green since Houston could use a proven organizer, but I'm just speculating here.

Update: Fischer reports that the Wolves are receiving cash in the deal, so this move is all about financial flexibility, potentially setting the stage for a bigger trade. I'm surprised that they weren't interested in Ivey themselves since they've been looking for guard help all season, but I guess all else is on hold while they pursue the Greek Freak.

Saturday, December 6, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 10-13 in 2025

This is now the home stretch of the NFL season with fantasy players going into the final week of the regular season and the real life teams fighting for playoff positioning. The trade deadline is now firmly in the rearview mirror, so we have an idea of how any arrivals or departures changed the outlook of teams' usage. I try to keep an eye out for anything notable in that department for these posts, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • Thanksgiving weekend threw off my cadence of writing these every three weeks, and funnily enough that impacted the numbers for a player I've been planning to write about for a while: De'Von Achane. I've featured him in past years, but his consistency this season has been remarkable with 16.5+ points in 11 of 12 games (and still 12.8 in the outlier).

    Being a dual-threat is always helpful in raising running backs' floors, and Achane's 74.32% route participation and 21.18% target share both trail only Christian McCaffrey (82.04% and 24.88%) at the position. This last game is the first time all year that the Dolphins star didn't record a catch, and even that included a wide open screen in the red zone that Tua Tagovailoa missed him on. Achane still finished with 19.4 points thanks to another big day on the ground with 22 carries for 134 yards, and a TD, which made it three straight games with 120+ rushing yards. He is the engine to the offense with 79.17% of the snaps and 71.81% of the RB carries in addition to the passing work, leading to 21.20 points per game for the season.
  • Like Miami, Seattle's offense is run by a former 49ers assistant, Klint Kubiak, but they are completely different with their RB deployment. Kenneth Walker has played just 47.36% of the snaps, run a route on 37.11% of the drop backs, been given 50.79% of the RB carries, and seen a 7.44% target share resulting in 11.23 points while Zach Charbonnet's numbers in those same categories are 46.77%, 36.45%, 44.01%, 3.46%, and 9.76. Even then, Walker's numbers are slightly inflated by the Week 3 game that Charbonnet missed, but things look a little different if you look at the splits before and after the team's Week 8 bye.

    In only the first 6 games when both 'backs played: 41.62% snap rate, 30.37% route participation, 52.32% carry share, 4.91% target share, 9.52 points for Walker compared to 54.32%, 43.46%, 47.68%, 4.29%, and 10.02 for Charbonnet.

    In the 5 games since the bye: 53.21%, 44.68%, 48.87%, 11.11%, and 11.94 for Walker versus 37.82%, 26.95%, 39.85%, 2.38%, and 9.46 for Charbonnet. Those aren't gamebreaking numbers for Walker, but it's an encouraging sign, especially with the passing game usage after neither RB were getting practically any work through the air to start the season. These last two games set his season-highs for target share with 16% and 17.39%, and the work was even more in his favor this past week before Charbonnet salted the game away.

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-9 in 2025

The NFL regular season is now halfway over, so how teams are utilizing their players is pretty established by this point. Still, there are always some notable changes with players' opportunities, whether by a lineup change, a teammate's injury, or in one case here, a return from suspension. That's what's covered here, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • After being suspended the first six games of the season, Rashee Rice has immediately made a huge impact. Despite only being in on 40.74% of the snaps and 47.50% of the drop backs in a blowout win his first game, he wasn't exactly eased in with a 29.41% target share leading to two touchdowns and 23.2 PPR points.

    Over the next two games, Rice was back to a full-time player with snap rates of 85.51% and 81.67% and route participation rates of 82.93% and 79.49%. His target shares have technically gone down to 28.13% and 24.14%, but those are of course still strong numbers leading to 27.37% overall. He's even getting some carries near the goal line for more scoring opportunities to go along with his coveted slot role (about 40% of snaps) that leads to so many layup looks, so his 22.43 points per game so far looks sustainable.
  • Things finally normalized this past game, but Ja'Marr Chase has been seeing absurd volume since Joe Flacco joined the Bengals. Overall through four games together, last year's receiving Triple Crown winner has a 38.04% target share while playing 98.88% of the snaps and running a route on 98.90% of the drop backs for 25.35 points per game. Before "only" having 8 targets last game (17.78%), that was a 45.76% target share, and with Flacco letting it fly so often (43.25 attempts per game), it translated to 18 targets per game.

    This stretch has brought Chase's overall season averages to 20.86 points, a 94.95% snap rate, 96.69% route participation, and a 33.75% target share (resulting in 11.89 looks). For comparison, in last year's historic season, those numbers were 23.71, 92.69%, 97.79%, and 27.87% (10.29), so he's still managed to get by with sheer volume to offset losing Joe Burrow's efficiency.

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 4-6 in 2025

It's hard to believe that Week 7 is already here! With another three weeks in the books since my last look at player usage, there is now a decent sample size for this NFL season so far. We now have a pretty solid idea of how teams are utilizing their players, so these are observations around that, including any recent changes.

As I said last time, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).


  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is off to a scintillating start to the season with a league-leading 696 yards through six games, and the underlying numbers are even more impressive. I noted in Week 1 how absurd his 59.09% target share was, and this past week he saw over half of Seattle's looks again with a 54.17% mark. Overall on the season, he is averaging 21.45 points while playing 73.8% of the snaps, running a route on 89.2% of the drop backs, and seeing a 36.36% target share.

    With that incredible volume is also coming record-breaking efficiency as JSN is averaging 4.43 yards per route run. If he keeps that up for the whole season, it would eclipse Tyreek Hill's 3.72 mark in 2023 as the highest in PFF's history. To put things in perspective, Smith-Njigba has the aforementioned NFL lead in receiving yards despite the Seahawks ranking 31st in pass attempts per game with 27.3, barely ahead of the Ravens' 27.2 average at the bottom.
  • If I was writing this a week ago, Puka Nacua would probably be my opener since he had 588 yards through five games to JSN's 534, but the Rams star unfortunately got hurt near the end of the first half on Sunday and despite returning for some plays later, will miss the next game. Still, he's also been off to an amazing start with 3.42 YPRR and heavy usage. Nacua is averaging 23.13 points with a 75.98% snap rate, 81.08% route participation, and 31.71% target share, and before this down week those numbers were 26.80, 80%, 84.97%, and 34.64%.

    As usual, L.A.'s offense is highly condensed, and that's led to Davante Adams also seeing a 26.83% target share even with Nacua's dominance. That's only led to 13.93 points per game so far, but he could explode against the Jaguars' up and down secondary as the #1 target this week. He was already playing 84.33% of the snaps and running a route on 91.89% of the drop backs, but the target share could get even higher. 


  • Since Atlanta's coaching staff came from L.A., their offense is also pretty condensed, and Drake London and Bijan Robinson really showed that on Monday Night Football when they combined for nearly 400 yards by themselves. Staying at WR to start, London pulled a JSN and had a 51.61% target share in that game (he was the only Falcons WR to record a catch) and 31.8 points to bring his season averages to 17.34 points, 88.34% of the snaps, 93.30% route participation, and a 32.92% target share. It's worth noting that Darnell Mooney missed this game again, but this is no outlier for London after he finished last season with 16.88, 94.01%, 94.59%, and 30.10% rates.

    Even with all of Robinson's accolades so far, his season still might not be getting as much attention as it deserves. He's averaging 24.84 points while playing 74.64% of the snaps, running a route on 75.42% of the the drop backs, seeing 58.04% of the RB carries, and earning a 19.25% target share, huge for the position. Robinson is averaging 67.6 receiving yards per game on top of his 96.8 yards on the ground, putting him on pace to join Roger Craig, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey as just the fourth player to have a 1,000-1,000 season.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 1-3 in 2025

We are now fully back! I'm not going to be writing these type of posts as often this season since things can change so much week to week in the NFL, but being three weeks in now gives us a decent sample size to look at. These deep dives are meant to look beyond the regular box scores and instead focus on how teams are utilizing their skill position players. These underlying peripherals can often be a better indicator of what is to come than the raw numbers that have been put up so far.

Like last year, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • Let's start with arguably the best player in fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey. The only thing ever stopping him from being the #1 pick each year are questions about his health, and despite a calf scare right before Week 1, he's ironically been one of the only healthy 49ers so far. And the team definitely isn't worried about trying to preserve him as the dual-threat RB once again has an elite role.

    Through three games, McCaffrey has played 81.13% of the snaps, run a route on 81.60% of the drop backs, been given. 75.36% of the RB carries, and seen an absurd 29.09% target share. Once more for emphasis: he's getting the targeted at the rate of an elite WR as a running back! As a result, he's averaging 23.3 points per game despite not finding the end zone on the ground yet and only scoring one receiving touchdown. The target share will come down once more receiving options get healthy, but with the track record that both this offense and he has, the TDs will come.
  • A more split backfield is happening in Houston, and it's been interesting to see the progression of the group. The Texans initially had four RBs see at least 7 snaps in Week 1 before making Dameon Pierce inactive in Week 2, and now in Week 3 it was down to just two 'backs getting snaps.

    Veteran Nick Chubb has been solid with a consistent role, playing over half the snaps in all three games (52% overall) with his route participation rate progressing from 26.47% to 30% to 39.53% (32.71% overall). That's led to an increase in target share from 3.7% to 8.7% to 11.11% (8.14% overall) to go along getting 66.67% of the RB carries, resulting in 9.4 points per game.

    Chubb's never been a big contributor in the passing game, though, so more intriguing is the role increase for rookie Woody Marks, who I was high on in this class as a pass-catcher. From snaps (11.11% to 26.53% to 47.62%) to routes (8.82% to 23.33% to 44.19%) to RB carry share (14.29% to 20% to 40%) to target share (0% to 4.35% to 5.56%), his usage numbers have gone up across the board week over week. If this can stay around an even split with Marks getting most of the receiving work, he could become an underrated contributor.

Thursday, September 4, 2025

Top NFL Rookie WRs for 2025

It's been a while! I meant to get this out not much longer after the rookie running backs and TEs posts in May, but the NBA offseason having action start sooner than ever threw me off before travel plans over the summer. Now the 2025 NFL season is here, so I'll will fire through this wide receiver class that's not as awesome as recent years but still has a lot to like.

As a reminder, a lot of what I base profiles on comes from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years with certain statistical lenses to look through. I also tend to look at athleticism testing a little more than he does, but Ryan Heath's research at Fantasy Points indicates findings that it shouldn't be too much of a factor in success compared to other positions. Still, I'll be referencing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast); draft day age; breakout age; production profiles based on yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA), and market share rates; and then situation comes in at the end.


1. Tetairoa McMillan - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Panthers

There is a lot to like about McMillan's complete profile. He broke out as a true freshman (albeit as a 19 year old) largely based on accounting for 30.77% of Arizona's touchdowns. He really took off as a sophomore with an elite 3.02 yards per team pass attempt, a great 2.79 yards per route run, and strong market shares across the board with 27.11% of the team's catches, 34.98% of the yards, and 27.78% of the TDs. Finally, he maintained his production as a junior with a nearly identical 3.02 Y/TPA, 2.87 YPRR, and per game averages even as the team wasn't as good around him, resulting in improved rates of 32.06%, 44.34%, and 44.44%.

McMillan brings great size at 6'4.125" and 219 lbs, and although he didn't work out at the combine, he reportedly ran a more than adequate 4.53 40 yard dash at his pro day. That combination along with his track record of production means that he has all the traits to become an alpha receiver, and getting picked in the top-10 by a team who needs just that is enticing. Head coach Dave Canales has talked about running his passing attack through his top outside target and showed that through the beginning of last season with Diontae Johnson (before he apparently crashed out across multiple teams) and the prior year as offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans. Adam Thielen getting traded last week opens up even more target opportunity, so McMillan should be the clear cut top rookie WR this season.


2. Travis Hunter - 1st round, 2nd overall, 1st WR* drafted - Jaguars (traded up)

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is of course a fascinating case since he will be playing cornerback in addition to wide receiver, hence the asterisk above. The fact that Jacksonville gave up a king's ransom to move up to take him with the #2 pick gives a good idea of their big plans for him, so he could end up being the better long-term investment in dynasty over McMillan. We don't know just how many of the offensive snaps that Hunter will be playing compared just yet, and his statistical profile won't overwhelm you, which is understandable given how he pulled double duty.

Only a month younger than McMillan, Hunter broke out as a 20 year old sophomore upon transferring to Colorado after shocking the world by initially going to HBCU Jackson State as the #1 recruit in the nation. He only had 2.04 Y/TPA and 2.17 YPRR, however, with a 23.36% reception share, 26.06% yards share, and 21.74% touchdown share. Those improved across the board last season to 2.61, 2.51, 27.20%, 30.43%, and especially to 40.54%, but that still isn't necessarily elite anywhere.

The scouts rave about Hunter's traits, though, and Reception Perception guru Matt Harmon mentioned his fluid movements in the same breath as a young Odell Beckham Jr. They have similar size with Hunter 6'0.375" and 188 lbs to OBJ's 5'11.25" and 198, and perhaps with more focus on developing more as a receiver, the comparisons could continue. The Jaguars already have Brian Thomas Jr. as a #1 option for the foreseeable future after an outstanding rookie year, but there is a ton of opportunity for targets behind him with the departures of Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. New head coach Liam Coen brings an exciting element to this offense now after he followed in Canales' footsteps as the Buccaneers OC for one year before a promotion, and Hunter could end up playing a large role in it.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

2025 NBA Draft Summary

This year's NBA draft is officially in the books! With their being so many moves during the event, I like to have this post separate from my offseason tracker to really dig into the moves around the board. While I make sure to give proper reporting credit in that tracker, it gets a lot messier trying to list that here with so many trades and the main news coming from one source earlier before small details come from another. So overall just shoutout to Shams Charania, Jake Fischer, Michael Scotto, Brett Siegel, Jon Krawczynski, and Anthony Slater for providing which future picks and/or draft rights exchanged hands throughout the event.

For now, here is a list of every selection and trade made (in excruciating detail) from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. If you're curious about how teams had some of these picks from previous trades (and boy were there a lot of them), I broke it down in the second half of my lottery reaction post.


Dallas Mavericks
  • #1 Cooper Flagg

San Antonio Spurs
  • #2 Dylan Harper
  • #14 Carter Bryant
  • Traded #38 for the Kings' 2030 2nd round pick and cash considerations

Philadelphia 76ers
  • #3 VJ Edgecombe
  • #35 Johni Broome

Charlotte Hornets
  • #4 Kon Knueppel
  • Traded Mark Williams for #29 Liam McNeeley and a 2029 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, Timberwolves [protected 1-5])
  • #33 Sion James
  • #34 Ryan Kalkbrenner

Utah Jazz
  • #5 Ace Bailey
  • Traded #21, #43, and 2031 and 2032 2nd round picks for #18 Walter Clayton
  • #53 John Tonje