Wednesday, January 7, 2026

2025-2026 NBA Trade Tracker

It took a while, but the NBA trade season is officially here now that the Trae Young deal came together rather quickly. As usual, this post will be constantly updated to serve as a one-stop shop for every trade that happens up until the deadline. 

Like last year's edition, the confirmed salaries come from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac, previously traded draft pick details come from RealGM, and I always make sure to list which reporter was first on the news. The latest deals will be added at the top of the post so that you don't have to keep scrolling to the bottom for updates, and salaries are color-coded based on whether they're player options, team options, or non-guaranteed.


Boston ducks the tax at the buzzer (Shams 2/5)

Hornets receive:
Xavier Tillman$2,546,675

Celtics receive:
TBD but likely a fake 2nd or old draft rights

I was wondering why Boston would do the Minott deal and not have a follow up trade lined up to get out of the luxury tax completely, but it turns out there was one last deal to be reported an hour after the deadline passed. As long as the teams were in the queue to make the trade call into the league office by noon PST today, trades can go through.


Milwaukee re-routes Richards (Shams 2/5)

Bulls receive:
Nick Richards$5,000,000

Bucks receive:
Ousmane Dieng$6,670,882

This will technically end up being a three-way trade with Phoenix's involvement below, but the main point is that Milwaukee is ending up with Dieng instead of Richards, who provides some much needed center help to Chicago.


Charlotte and Dallas flip new guards (Shams 2/5)

Mavericks receives:
Tyus Jones$7,000,000

Charlotte receives:
Malaki Branham$4,962,033

Even with both of these guards being acquired just yesterday, they can be traded here since it's a one for one deal without being aggregated. It makes sense, too, since Dallas could really use a set up man and now have more financial flexibility than over the summer. Fischer added that Jones was their main target over Russell but couldn't afford him at the time.


Indiana gets their center (Fischer that it was close, Shams and Siegel the deal 2/5)

Pacers receive: $20,756,880 total
Ivica Zubac$18,102,000$19,550,160$20,998,320
Kobe Brown$2,654,880

Clippers receive: $16,787,573 total
Bennedict Mathurin$9,187,573
Isaiah Jackson$7,600,000$7,000,000$6,400,000
2026 Pacers 1st round pick (protected 1-4 and 10-30, then becomes 2031 1st)
2029 Pacers 1st round pick
2028 Mavericks 2nd round pick

I don't think we've ever seen so many lottery teams be buyers (and all for big men), but since Zubac is on such a great contract, I get it in this case. Including this year's protected pick is fascinating since Indiana currently has the third-best lottery odds. If they stay in that position, then L.A. will have a 47.86% chance of the pick dropping to #5, #6, or #7, otherwise it will become an unprotected 1st five years from now.

Of course, the Pacers aren't like the Jazz or Wizards since they were just a game away from winning the Finals last season before having to take this gap year due to Tyrese Haliburton's torn Achilles. Now they've locked in his new pick and roll partner with a 28 year old (29 next month) who also made 2nd team All-Defense. And they could still add a top-4 pick (in a great draft) to this core with their odds basically coming down to a coin flip pending any big movement in the standings.

The Clippers 1st rounder that the Thunder own just got dangerously good again after they had been on a hot streak, but that was a sunk cost for them anyway. After making the Harden trade, cashing in on Zu at the likely peak of his value makes sense with the upside of this return. In addition to the draft picks, Mathurin is nice get since he's only 23, averaging a career-high 17.8 points, and will be a restricted free agent. He didn't fit into Indy's long-term plans with the other money that they owe and the luxury tax basically acting as a hard cap for them, but he has a ton of talent and had his moments in their Finals run.


Philly salary dumps Gordon (Shams 2/5)

Grizzlies receive:
Eric Gordon$2,296,274
Right to swap 2032 2nd round picks

76ers receive:
TBD but likely a fake 2nd or old draft rights

Philadelphia had already gotten out of the tax, but now this opens up another roster spot to convert their other Two-Way forward, Jabari Walker.


Brooklyn continues to be a salary dumping ground (Shams 2/5)

Nets receive:
Josh Minott$2,378,870$2,584,539

Celtics receive:
TBD but likely a fake 2nd or old draft rights

This edges Boston closer to being able to get under the luxury tax line completely. Stein also reported that they're converting the Two-Way contract of Amari Williams, the #46 pick last year, to two year deal that's basically in conjunction to this. I'm projecting that a team option is included so that they can leverage a longer deal in the summer, and you can see the difference in salary for this roster spot here:

Amari Williams$490,128$2,150,919


Denver gets out of the tax (Shams 2/5)

Nets receive:
Hunter Tyson$2,221,677$2,406,205
2032 2nd round pick

Nuggets receive:
2026 2nd round pick (Lesser of Clippers or Hawks)

Maybe because Tyson was a relatively highly picked 2nd rounder (37th overall in 2023), but this deal proved less costly than some other for Denver to duck the tax. They also create a tiny Trade Exception worth this salary, but these small ones are only really useful for claiming a player who's on a small salary that might not technically be a "minimum contract." It's also being mentioned how they can now convert Spencer Jones' Two-Way contract, but they already had an open roster spot...they just didn't want to use it due to the tax.

Brooklyn will need to create a roster spot again now for this deal that sees them help rebalance their bounty of draft picks to a different year and with more upside.

Update: Shams reports that Cam Thomas will be waived to allow him to find a new home. He's far from perfect, but the lack of interest in him in both restricted free agency and the trade deadline is surprising to me. Now he'll be able to provide an offensive spark off the bench for any team at pretty much no cost.


New York adds a backup PG (Shams first, Haynes the return 2/5)

Knicks receive:
Jose Alvarado$4,500,000$4,500,000

Pelicans receive:
Dalen Terry$5,399,118
Two 2nd round picks
Cash considerations

This might end up being a three-teamer with Chicago to loop in last night's trade, but Terry can be re-routed immediately since he's not being aggregated here. I thought that New York was relatively set at guard with Miles McBride, Landry Shamet, Tyler Kolek, and Jordan Clarkson already available as bench options, but Alvarado has been a rumored target of theirs for a while. He is a defensive upgrade, of course, and going from Yabusele's salary to this gives them more breathing room under the Second Apron to fill their last roster spot.

Update: Fred Katz broke some news that McBride needs sports hernia surgery and might be sidelined until the playoffs, which makes this trade even more important. 


Boston sheds more salary (Shams 2/5)

Jazz receive:
Chris Boucher$2,296,274

Celtics receive:
TBD but likely a fake 2nd or old draft rights

This doesn't get Boston out of the luxury tax yet, but they keep getting ever closer. Like with the Ball trade, Utah is just churning through their open roster spot to pick up something for their room below the tax line. Unsurprisingly, Scotto adds that Boucher is going to be waived to hopefully join a playoff team.


Phoenix gets out of the tax (Shams 2/5)

Bucks receive: $7,048,494 total
Nick Richards$5,000,000
Nigel Hayes-Davis$2,048,494

Suns receive: $4,592,548 total
Cole Anthony$2,296,274
Amir Coffey$2,296,274


Immediately after Shams reported that Milwaukee is keeping Giannis (meaning even more rumors due to this delaying of the inevitable), the talk of them wanting to go the other way and add came to fruition here. Richards is a solid backup big man thanks to his rebounding, and while both Anthony and Coffey have proven to be useful rotation players in the past, they didn't work out as minimum signings. Hayes-Davis also returns to Wisconsin after starring for the Badgers back in the day, so that's fun.

The main thing here is that Phoenix has climbed all the way out of the Second Apron to duck the tax completely after this. All three of Anthony, Coffey, and Hayes-Davis can be taken in via the Minimum Exception, and the Suns will create two separate Trade Exceptions worth the salaries of Richards and Hayes-Davis.


L.A. land a shooter (Dan Woike that it was close, Shams the deal 2/5)

Lakers receive:
Luke Kennard$11,000,000

Hawks receive:
Gabe Vincent$11,500,000
2032 Lakers 2nd round pick

There goes the only 2nd rounder that L.A. owned. Kennard is an absolutely elite shooter, but given his tendency to fall out of rotations in the playoffs due to his defense, I'm a little surprised that this is the move the Lakers used it for. The money being a wash is nice since they're so close to the Second Apron, and the expiring salary doesn't hinder their cap space plans for the summer, at least.

Following last night's addition of a similar shooter in Hield, this helps balance out Atlanta's roster that lacks point guards. The draft pick being so far out helps its upside chances since Luka Doncic will be older and possibly not on the team by then. Lastly, they can use their Bogdan Bogdanovic Trade Exception here before it expires tomorrow and create a new TE worth Kennard's salary with a new shelf life for a year.


Minnesota lands its guard help (Jon Krawczynski 2/5)

Timberwolves receive: $9,740,195 total
Ayo Dosunmu$7,518,518
Julian Phillips$2,221,677$2,406,205

Bulls receive: $8,797,797 total
Rob Dillingham$6,576,120$6,889,320$8,763,216
Leonard Miller$2,221,677$2,406,205
2026 2nd round pick (Lesser of Nuggets or Warriors)
2027 Cavaliers 2nd round pick
2031 2nd round pick (Better of Warriors or Wolves)
2032 2nd round pick (Better of Rockets or Suns)

It's kind of funny that these teams agreed to this deal now after they just made the Conley trade two nights ago that could have potentially been looped in here. Dosunmu garnering one more draft pick than White is also notable given how both are pending free agents, with Scotto adding details on which picks are involved. Maybe that's due to Dillingham's salary for next season, but in theory landing the #8 overall pick from just two years ago was part of the appeal of this deal.

Maybe the expected price point to re-sign White versus Dosunmu was a factor, but in any case, this was a great pickup worth those picks in my opinion. Minnesota really needed another guard who can do a little bit of everything like this. Despite only averaging 26.4 minutes this season, he's averaging 15 points and 3.6 assists (against only 1.4 turnovers) on 51.4%/45.1%/85.7% shooting while taking 4.3 threes. The scoring, 3PA, 3P%, and FT% all career-highs, and he just turned 26 last month. Dosunmu doesn't have quite the same size or defensive versatility that they had with Nickeil Alexander-Walker last year, but he has good length length himself at 6'3.5" without shoes and a 6'10.5" wingspan that's actually a touch more than NAW's 6'9.5".


Chicago finally swaps out a guard for size (Shams 2/4)

Bulls receive:
Guerschon Yabusele$5,500,000$5,775,000

Knicks receive:
Dalen Terry$5,399,118


It's unfortunate that Yabusele, who had a strong market in free agency, didn't fit with what was being required by Mike Brown, who was hired after the signing. At least now New York was able to get off of the money owed in next year's player option without having to attach anything to him, and who knows, maybe Terry will provide surprising depth with a change of scenery. I like him coming out of Arizona, but the former 1st rounder never found a way to make an impact. Now Chicago at least has some heft up front following their flurry of trades that left the roster so guard heavy at the moment.


Toronto adds center depth (Shams 2/4)

Raptors receive:
Trayce Jackson-Davis$2,221,677$2,406,205

Warriors receive:
2026 Lakers 2nd round pick

Golden State has a severe lack of 2nd round picks, so picking up one here for their own former late 2nd rounder who hasn't been able to hold onto a rotation spot is solid. Toronto's big man rotation has been in flux with Jakob Poeltl's back injury, so they get a cheap option here with an extra pick that they had. I'm guessing that they'll use part of the MLE here, or they could use the new Agbaji Trade Exception, while still having room under the tax line after that deal.


The Kuminga saga finally ends (Shams 2/4)

Warriors receive:
Kristaps Porzingis$30,731,707

Hawks receive: $31,719,512 total
Jonathan Kuminga$22,500,000$24,300,000
Buddy Hield$9,219,512$9,658,536$10,097,560


I had thought about Porzingis as an ideal stretch big fit next to Draymond Green when Boston was shopping him over the summer, but the money didn’t work at the time with Kuminga’s Base Year Compensation issues in a sign-and-trade. Now it does, and I believe that since the salaries are actually a match in a one for one trade, Golden State creates a Trade Exception worth Hield's $9,219,512. The veteran shooter needed to be included since First Apron teams must send out more money than they receive, and it doesn't hurt that they also get off of the $3 million that he had guaranteed for next season. This also creates an open roster spot to convert Pat Spencer's Two-Way contract. (2/5 Update: Upon further examination this morning, I realized that with the trade mechanics of an Apron team, a TE isn't created here. My mistake.)

This is not the blockbuster that fans wanted, but Porzingis is an impactful player on both ends with averages of 20.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.8 blocks in 30 minutes over the past four season. The 49.6%/38.7%/84.4% shooting coming with 5.4 three point attempts per game is especially nice for a rim protector. The question around him is always availability, and a myriad of health issues has limited him to just 17 games this season after 42 and 57 the prior two with the Celtics. Al Horford was one of his front court mates there, and they'll now reunite to form a versatile group of big men with Green. That is if all can stay healthy, of course, but at least Porzingis is only 30 years old and comes with no future commitment if things don't work out.

This is also a pretty risk free gamble for Atlanta given the team option on Kuminga and small guarantee for Hield. Their GM, Onsi Saleh, was in Golden State when they drafted the athletic forward, who was actually selected 13 spots ahead of Hawks star Jalen Johnson. I'm curious to see how their fit together will look, especially since last year's #1 pick Risacher recently came back from injury, but in any case, this is a nice upside play at the cost of an expiring contract that didn't work out. Kuminga could never seem to find his way consistently enough with what the Warriors wanted him to do compared to how he wants to play, but the talent is there for the 23 year old.

Saturday, December 6, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 10-13 in 2025

This is now the home stretch of the NFL season with fantasy players going into the final week of the regular season and the real life teams fighting for playoff positioning. The trade deadline is now firmly in the rearview mirror, so we have an idea of how any arrivals or departures changed the outlook of teams' usage. I try to keep an eye out for anything notable in that department for these posts, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • Thanksgiving weekend threw off my cadence of writing these every three weeks, and funnily enough that impacted the numbers for a player I've been planning to write about for a while: De'Von Achane. I've featured him in past years, but his consistency this season has been remarkable with 16.5+ points in 11 of 12 games (and still 12.8 in the outlier).

    Being a dual-threat is always helpful in raising running backs' floors, and Achane's 74.32% route participation and 21.18% target share both trail only Christian McCaffrey (82.04% and 24.88%) at the position. This last game is the first time all year that the Dolphins star didn't record a catch, and even that included a wide open screen in the red zone that Tua Tagovailoa missed him on. Achane still finished with 19.4 points thanks to another big day on the ground with 22 carries for 134 yards, and a TD, which made it three straight games with 120+ rushing yards. He is the engine to the offense with 79.17% of the snaps and 71.81% of the RB carries in addition to the passing work, leading to 21.20 points per game for the season.
  • Like Miami, Seattle's offense is run by a former 49ers assistant, Klint Kubiak, but they are completely different with their RB deployment. Kenneth Walker has played just 47.36% of the snaps, run a route on 37.11% of the drop backs, been given 50.79% of the RB carries, and seen a 7.44% target share resulting in 11.23 points while Zach Charbonnet's numbers in those same categories are 46.77%, 36.45%, 44.01%, 3.46%, and 9.76. Even then, Walker's numbers are slightly inflated by the Week 3 game that Charbonnet missed, but things look a little different if you look at the splits before and after the team's Week 8 bye.

    In only the first 6 games when both 'backs played: 41.62% snap rate, 30.37% route participation, 52.32% carry share, 4.91% target share, 9.52 points for Walker compared to 54.32%, 43.46%, 47.68%, 4.29%, and 10.02 for Charbonnet.

    In the 5 games since the bye: 53.21%, 44.68%, 48.87%, 11.11%, and 11.94 for Walker versus 37.82%, 26.95%, 39.85%, 2.38%, and 9.46 for Charbonnet. Those aren't gamebreaking numbers for Walker, but it's an encouraging sign, especially with the passing game usage after neither RB were getting practically any work through the air to start the season. These last two games set his season-highs for target share with 16% and 17.39%, and the work was even more in his favor this past week before Charbonnet salted the game away.

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-9 in 2025

The NFL regular season is now halfway over, so how teams are utilizing their players is pretty established by this point. Still, there are always some notable changes with players' opportunities, whether by a lineup change, a teammate's injury, or in one case here, a return from suspension. That's what's covered here, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • After being suspended the first six games of the season, Rashee Rice has immediately made a huge impact. Despite only being in on 40.74% of the snaps and 47.50% of the drop backs in a blowout win his first game, he wasn't exactly eased in with a 29.41% target share leading to two touchdowns and 23.2 PPR points.

    Over the next two games, Rice was back to a full-time player with snap rates of 85.51% and 81.67% and route participation rates of 82.93% and 79.49%. His target shares have technically gone down to 28.13% and 24.14%, but those are of course still strong numbers leading to 27.37% overall. He's even getting some carries near the goal line for more scoring opportunities to go along with his coveted slot role (about 40% of snaps) that leads to so many layup looks, so his 22.43 points per game so far looks sustainable.
  • Things finally normalized this past game, but Ja'Marr Chase has been seeing absurd volume since Joe Flacco joined the Bengals. Overall through four games together, last year's receiving Triple Crown winner has a 38.04% target share while playing 98.88% of the snaps and running a route on 98.90% of the drop backs for 25.35 points per game. Before "only" having 8 targets last game (17.78%), that was a 45.76% target share, and with Flacco letting it fly so often (43.25 attempts per game), it translated to 18 targets per game.

    This stretch has brought Chase's overall season averages to 20.86 points, a 94.95% snap rate, 96.69% route participation, and a 33.75% target share (resulting in 11.89 looks). For comparison, in last year's historic season, those numbers were 23.71, 92.69%, 97.79%, and 27.87% (10.29), so he's still managed to get by with sheer volume to offset losing Joe Burrow's efficiency.

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 4-6 in 2025

It's hard to believe that Week 7 is already here! With another three weeks in the books since my last look at player usage, there is now a decent sample size for this NFL season so far. We now have a pretty solid idea of how teams are utilizing their players, so these are observations around that, including any recent changes.

As I said last time, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).


  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba is off to a scintillating start to the season with a league-leading 696 yards through six games, and the underlying numbers are even more impressive. I noted in Week 1 how absurd his 59.09% target share was, and this past week he saw over half of Seattle's looks again with a 54.17% mark. Overall on the season, he is averaging 21.45 points while playing 73.8% of the snaps, running a route on 89.2% of the drop backs, and seeing a 36.36% target share.

    With that incredible volume is also coming record-breaking efficiency as JSN is averaging 4.43 yards per route run. If he keeps that up for the whole season, it would eclipse Tyreek Hill's 3.72 mark in 2023 as the highest in PFF's history. To put things in perspective, Smith-Njigba has the aforementioned NFL lead in receiving yards despite the Seahawks ranking 31st in pass attempts per game with 27.3, barely ahead of the Ravens' 27.2 average at the bottom.
  • If I was writing this a week ago, Puka Nacua would probably be my opener since he had 588 yards through five games to JSN's 534, but the Rams star unfortunately got hurt near the end of the first half on Sunday and despite returning for some plays later, will miss the next game. Still, he's also been off to an amazing start with 3.42 YPRR and heavy usage. Nacua is averaging 23.13 points with a 75.98% snap rate, 81.08% route participation, and 31.71% target share, and before this down week those numbers were 26.80, 80%, 84.97%, and 34.64%.

    As usual, L.A.'s offense is highly condensed, and that's led to Davante Adams also seeing a 26.83% target share even with Nacua's dominance. That's only led to 13.93 points per game so far, but he could explode against the Jaguars' up and down secondary as the #1 target this week. He was already playing 84.33% of the snaps and running a route on 91.89% of the drop backs, but the target share could get even higher. 


  • Since Atlanta's coaching staff came from L.A., their offense is also pretty condensed, and Drake London and Bijan Robinson really showed that on Monday Night Football when they combined for nearly 400 yards by themselves. Staying at WR to start, London pulled a JSN and had a 51.61% target share in that game (he was the only Falcons WR to record a catch) and 31.8 points to bring his season averages to 17.34 points, 88.34% of the snaps, 93.30% route participation, and a 32.92% target share. It's worth noting that Darnell Mooney missed this game again, but this is no outlier for London after he finished last season with 16.88, 94.01%, 94.59%, and 30.10% rates.

    Even with all of Robinson's accolades so far, his season still might not be getting as much attention as it deserves. He's averaging 24.84 points while playing 74.64% of the snaps, running a route on 75.42% of the the drop backs, seeing 58.04% of the RB carries, and earning a 19.25% target share, huge for the position. Robinson is averaging 67.6 receiving yards per game on top of his 96.8 yards on the ground, putting him on pace to join Roger Craig, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey as just the fourth player to have a 1,000-1,000 season.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 1-3 in 2025

We are now fully back! I'm not going to be writing these type of posts as often this season since things can change so much week to week in the NFL, but being three weeks in now gives us a decent sample size to look at. These deep dives are meant to look beyond the regular box scores and instead focus on how teams are utilizing their skill position players. These underlying peripherals can often be a better indicator of what is to come than the raw numbers that have been put up so far.

Like last year, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • Let's start with arguably the best player in fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey. The only thing ever stopping him from being the #1 pick each year are questions about his health, and despite a calf scare right before Week 1, he's ironically been one of the only healthy 49ers so far. And the team definitely isn't worried about trying to preserve him as the dual-threat RB once again has an elite role.

    Through three games, McCaffrey has played 81.13% of the snaps, run a route on 81.60% of the drop backs, been given. 75.36% of the RB carries, and seen an absurd 29.09% target share. Once more for emphasis: he's getting the targeted at the rate of an elite WR as a running back! As a result, he's averaging 23.3 points per game despite not finding the end zone on the ground yet and only scoring one receiving touchdown. The target share will come down once more receiving options get healthy, but with the track record that both this offense and he has, the TDs will come.
  • A more split backfield is happening in Houston, and it's been interesting to see the progression of the group. The Texans initially had four RBs see at least 7 snaps in Week 1 before making Dameon Pierce inactive in Week 2, and now in Week 3 it was down to just two 'backs getting snaps.

    Veteran Nick Chubb has been solid with a consistent role, playing over half the snaps in all three games (52% overall) with his route participation rate progressing from 26.47% to 30% to 39.53% (32.71% overall). That's led to an increase in target share from 3.7% to 8.7% to 11.11% (8.14% overall) to go along getting 66.67% of the RB carries, resulting in 9.4 points per game.

    Chubb's never been a big contributor in the passing game, though, so more intriguing is the role increase for rookie Woody Marks, who I was high on in this class as a pass-catcher. From snaps (11.11% to 26.53% to 47.62%) to routes (8.82% to 23.33% to 44.19%) to RB carry share (14.29% to 20% to 40%) to target share (0% to 4.35% to 5.56%), his usage numbers have gone up across the board week over week. If this can stay around an even split with Marks getting most of the receiving work, he could become an underrated contributor.

Thursday, September 4, 2025

Top NFL Rookie WRs for 2025

It's been a while! I meant to get this out not much longer after the rookie running backs and TEs posts in May, but the NBA offseason having action start sooner than ever threw me off before travel plans over the summer. Now the 2025 NFL season is here, so I'll will fire through this wide receiver class that's not as awesome as recent years but still has a lot to like.

As a reminder, a lot of what I base profiles on comes from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years with certain statistical lenses to look through. I also tend to look at athleticism testing a little more than he does, but Ryan Heath's research at Fantasy Points indicates findings that it shouldn't be too much of a factor in success compared to other positions. Still, I'll be referencing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast); draft day age; breakout age; production profiles based on yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA), and market share rates; and then situation comes in at the end.


1. Tetairoa McMillan - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Panthers

There is a lot to like about McMillan's complete profile. He broke out as a true freshman (albeit as a 19 year old) largely based on accounting for 30.77% of Arizona's touchdowns. He really took off as a sophomore with an elite 3.02 yards per team pass attempt, a great 2.79 yards per route run, and strong market shares across the board with 27.11% of the team's catches, 34.98% of the yards, and 27.78% of the TDs. Finally, he maintained his production as a junior with a nearly identical 3.02 Y/TPA, 2.87 YPRR, and per game averages even as the team wasn't as good around him, resulting in improved rates of 32.06%, 44.34%, and 44.44%.

McMillan brings great size at 6'4.125" and 219 lbs, and although he didn't work out at the combine, he reportedly ran a more than adequate 4.53 40 yard dash at his pro day. That combination along with his track record of production means that he has all the traits to become an alpha receiver, and getting picked in the top-10 by a team who needs just that is enticing. Head coach Dave Canales has talked about running his passing attack through his top outside target and showed that through the beginning of last season with Diontae Johnson (before he apparently crashed out across multiple teams) and the prior year as offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans. Adam Thielen getting traded last week opens up even more target opportunity, so McMillan should be the clear cut top rookie WR this season.


2. Travis Hunter - 1st round, 2nd overall, 1st WR* drafted - Jaguars (traded up)

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is of course a fascinating case since he will be playing cornerback in addition to wide receiver, hence the asterisk above. The fact that Jacksonville gave up a king's ransom to move up to take him with the #2 pick gives a good idea of their big plans for him, so he could end up being the better long-term investment in dynasty over McMillan. We don't know just how many of the offensive snaps that Hunter will be playing compared just yet, and his statistical profile won't overwhelm you, which is understandable given how he pulled double duty.

Only a month younger than McMillan, Hunter broke out as a 20 year old sophomore upon transferring to Colorado after shocking the world by initially going to HBCU Jackson State as the #1 recruit in the nation. He only had 2.04 Y/TPA and 2.17 YPRR, however, with a 23.36% reception share, 26.06% yards share, and 21.74% touchdown share. Those improved across the board last season to 2.61, 2.51, 27.20%, 30.43%, and especially to 40.54%, but that still isn't necessarily elite anywhere.

The scouts rave about Hunter's traits, though, and Reception Perception guru Matt Harmon mentioned his fluid movements in the same breath as a young Odell Beckham Jr. They have similar size with Hunter 6'0.375" and 188 lbs to OBJ's 5'11.25" and 198, and perhaps with more focus on developing more as a receiver, the comparisons could continue. The Jaguars already have Brian Thomas Jr. as a #1 option for the foreseeable future after an outstanding rookie year, but there is a ton of opportunity for targets behind him with the departures of Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. New head coach Liam Coen brings an exciting element to this offense now after he followed in Canales' footsteps as the Buccaneers OC for one year before a promotion, and Hunter could end up playing a large role in it.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

2025 NBA Draft Summary

This year's NBA draft is officially in the books! With their being so many moves during the event, I like to have this post separate from my offseason tracker to really dig into the moves around the board. While I make sure to give proper reporting credit in that tracker, it gets a lot messier trying to list that here with so many trades and the main news coming from one source earlier before small details come from another. So overall just shoutout to Shams Charania, Jake Fischer, Michael Scotto, Brett Siegel, Jon Krawczynski, and Anthony Slater for providing which future picks and/or draft rights exchanged hands throughout the event.

For now, here is a list of every selection and trade made (in excruciating detail) from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. If you're curious about how teams had some of these picks from previous trades (and boy were there a lot of them), I broke it down in the second half of my lottery reaction post.


Dallas Mavericks
  • #1 Cooper Flagg

San Antonio Spurs
  • #2 Dylan Harper
  • #14 Carter Bryant
  • Traded #38 for the Kings' 2030 2nd round pick and cash considerations

Philadelphia 76ers
  • #3 VJ Edgecombe
  • #35 Johni Broome

Charlotte Hornets
  • #4 Kon Knueppel
  • Traded Mark Williams for #29 Liam McNeeley and a 2029 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, Timberwolves [protected 1-5])
  • #33 Sion James
  • #34 Ryan Kalkbrenner

Utah Jazz
  • #5 Ace Bailey
  • Traded #21, #43, and 2031 and 2032 2nd round picks for #18 Walter Clayton
  • #53 John Tonje