I guess it's that time of year already! I typically make this post after the NBA draft, but now that deals started pouring in over the weekend, I'm starting now and will just add draft day moves in here.
This will be constantly updated throughout the summer, so I'll be adding the latest news at the top to be readily available upon revisiting the page instead of always having to scroll down. Or in other words, it goes in chronological order from the bottom up.
As usual, players already under contract have their figures listed based on Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com while salaries in bold italics are my own estimates based on reported numbers and the standard 5% or 8% raises that the teams could give. Salaries are also color coded if they are a player option, a team option, not fully guaranteed based on the reporting, with parentheses to credit whoever broke the news and when.
White to re-sign with the Hornets: 3 years, $74 million (Shams 6/25)
This feels about market value for White, so I guess his agents didn't press the issue in the wake of Charlotte's big hole at lead guard after this morning's news. Or perhaps they had this deal basically finalized to make the team comfortable enough to agree to the trade. The 26 year old had his minutes drop after being traded and moving to sixth man role, but his efficiency went up as a result. He averaged 15.6 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists in just 19.3 minutes (29.1, 5.5, and 5.7 per-36 minutes) with 46.1%/39.1%/83.9% shooting on 5.2 three point attempts and 4.1 free throws (a massive 9.8 and 7.7 per-36, respectively) in 21 games.
Looking at a larger sample size of the last three seasons, White has averaged 19.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 0.7 steals against 2.3 turnovers in 32.4 minutes with 44.9%/37%/85.6% shooting on 7.2 threes and 4 free throws. With his willingness to play both on and off the ball, he can combine well with Kneuppel and Miller for an explosive offense. In a tiny sample of 45 minutes over 17 games together, that three player lineup averaged 125.5 points per 100 possessions for a +29.8 net rating.
Charlotte sends Ball to Minnesota (Shams 6/25)
Timberwolves receive: $55,449,532 total
Well that escalated quickly. After Shams first reported after last night's draft that Ball could be on the move and Stein added that the Wolves and Raptors have interest, this came together less than 12 hours later. My immediate reaction was that this could be looped into the Randle trade below so that he could contribute towards the matching salary, and based on the reported details so far, this likely will be the case to end up as a four-team trade. Since Green makes enough to be traded straight up for Reid, Charlotte stands to create a massive Trade Exception worth Ball's $40,770,520 with this structure.
It's quite the bold move from each side, and what the Hornets do with that new flexibility could determine if they're the "winner" of the trade. After starting the season 9-20, they went 35-18 the rest of the way with a league-leading +10.1 net rating during that stretch before losing in the second Play-In game, which makes this shakeup a surprise. Switching to what became their regular starting lineup of Ball, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, and Moussa Diabate is what started that run, and LaMelo finally being available for most of the season was a huge part of their success.
Ball played in 72 games (while managing his minutes to a career-low 28 per contest) after only appearing in 47, 22, and 36 over the previous three seasons, so the Hornets might feel that they are selling at a high point while he's healthy and before his contract fully rises. He was also not drafted by the current regime, and they selected a point guard, Christian Anderson, with the #18 pick on Tuesday in addition to making trade deadline move for Coby White, who now has some nice leverage in free agency.
The 2033 1st is the only one that Minnesota could outright trade and holds upside by being as far down the line possible. Anthony Edwards and Ball, the 1st and 3rd picks in the 2020 draft, will both be turning 32 that summer and are both under contract until 2029, so who knows how good the team will be by then. Getting three pick swaps in the deal could be where things really get interesting now that there are new lottery rules in place with increased randomness. If the Timberwolves are in the lottery by the time these years come up, it doesn't really matter how good or bad they might be given the flattened odds, and the Hornets don't even need to be better than them for the swaps to come into play. With the odds for the #1 pick being either 8.11%, 5.41%, or 2.70% (for just the #8 seed in the playoffs) and there being a drawing for every pick now, a pick swap to give a team potentially two bites at the apple is more valuable than ever.
Reid's inclusion here is interesting given how Charlotte just invested the #14 pick in a big man, Hannes Steinbach, and how Minnesota is already sending out Randle. Bridges has been in some trade rumors, so Reid could end up the starting power forward if that happens or remain an overqualified sixth man. Maybe he starts at center before shifting down a spot with bench units, but without a ton of size on the wing, that combination probably wouldn't hold up defensively.
The Wolves' once robust front court is now down to Rudy Gobert as the only known commodity, so they may need last year's draft picks, Joan Beringer and Rocco Zikarsky, to step up. Jaden McDaniels could also play a little more small-ball power forward with the addition of Green, who is a decent 3+D wing but saw a large drop in minutes last season. Barring another trade (which definitely can't be ruled out after this week), they will likely only have the veteran minimum to add another front court option since the Taxpayer MLE would take them perilously close to the Second Apron that they're not hard-capped by due to salary aggregation here.
It's a big swing to pair Ball with Edwards, and it'll be fascinating to see how their dynamic works out. While both are certainly willing passers, whether each of them will end up with the ball in their hands enough for their liking is the question, particularly in crunch time. I can understand the idea since Ant-Man had to run the offense even more than before with Mike Conley's decline leading to DiVincenzo stepping into the starting lineup. Now 'Melo can take some pressure off of him along with the re-signed Dosunmu, but with the investment involved, it's a little too risky for my liking.
Horford to re-sign with the Warriors: 2 years, $14 million (Shams 6/25)
So that answers the question about whether Horford is declining his $5,969,250 player option or not. Having turned 40 this month, I did not expect this big of a new deal, but he's getting the maximum possible 20% raise on last year's $5,685,000 through Non-Bird Rights. There might have been an understanding that this could be coming when he took a discount to join the team on just the Taxpayer MLE, and while he was limited to just 45 games and 21.5 minutes, he was effective in them.
In his 19th season, Horford made 36.1% of his threes while taking 7.6 per-36 minutes and also blocking 1.9 shots per-36, both of which were actually career-highs. His 20.5% defensive rebounding rate was still strong, and the 4.3 assists per-36 minutes and switchable defense fit right in with Golden State.
