Saturday, September 27, 2025

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 1-3 in 2025

We are now fully back! I'm not going to be writing these type of posts as often this season since things can change so much week to week in the NFL, but being three weeks in now gives us a decent sample size to look at. These deep dives are meant to look beyond the regular box scores and instead focus on how teams are utilizing their skill position players. These underlying peripherals can often be a better indicator of what is to come than the raw numbers that have been put up so far.

Like last year, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • Let's start with arguably the best player in fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey. The only thing ever stopping him from being the #1 pick each year are questions about his health, and despite a calf scare right before Week 1, he's ironically been one of the only healthy 49ers so far. And the team definitely isn't worried about trying to preserve him as the dual-threat RB once again has an elite role.

    Through three games, McCaffrey has played 81.13% of the snaps, run a route on 81.60% of the drop backs, been given. 75.36% of the RB carries, and seen an absurd 29.09% target share. Once more for emphasis: he's getting the targeted at the rate of an elite WR as a running back! As a result, he's averaging 23.3 points per game despite not finding the end zone on the ground yet and only scoring one receiving touchdown. The target share will come down once more receiving options get healthy, but with the track record that both this offense and he has, the TDs will come.
  • A more split backfield is happening in Houston, and it's been interesting to see the progression of the group. The Texans initially had four RBs see at least 7 snaps in Week 1 before making Dameon Pierce inactive in Week 2, and now in Week 3 it was down to just two 'backs getting snaps.

    Veteran Nick Chubb has been solid with a consistent role, playing over half the snaps in all three games (52% overall) with his route participation rate progressing from 26.47% to 30% to 39.53% (32.71% overall). That's led to an increase in target share from 3.7% to 8.7% to 11.11% (8.14% overall) to go along getting 66.67% of the RB carries, resulting in 9.4 points per game.

    Chubb's never been a big contributor in the passing game, though, so more intriguing is the role increase for rookie Woody Marks, who I was high on in this class as a pass-catcher. From snaps (11.11% to 26.53% to 47.62%) to routes (8.82% to 23.33% to 44.19%) to RB carry share (14.29% to 20% to 40%) to target share (0% to 4.35% to 5.56%), his usage numbers have gone up across the board week over week. If this can stay around an even split with Marks getting most of the receiving work, he could become an underrated contributor.


  • The Browns have another committee that's had an interesting development with rookies. 4th rounder Dylan Sampson had a surprisingly effective debut with 17.3 points thanks in large part to 8 targets that equated to a 19.05% target share despite only running 15 routes (31.25% participation). That came with 12 carries for a 57.14% share, so even though he only played 43.42% of the snaps, he was used when out there. However, all of those rates have come down the last two weeks to the point that Sampson was barely involved with a 7.58% snap share, 7.89% route rate, 5.26% carry share, and 0% target share the last time out.

    After an offseason arrest that he ended up not being charged for, 2nd rounder Quinshon Judkins didn't get his contract signed until right at the start of the season and debuted just 8 days later in Week 2. He immediately saw 50% of the carries and a 7.32% target share despite only playing 26.03% of the snaps due to the lack of time with the team, resulting in 10.1 points. Judkins was featured even more this past week with a 54.55% snap rate, 36.84% route participation, 94.74% RB carry share (18 of 19!), and 6.06% target share for 16.5 points.

    It wouldn't be surprising if veteran Jerome Ford maintains something close to his 46.51% snap rate, 45.26% route participation rate, 20% RB carry share, and 9.48% target share so far as the trusted option on passing downs, but this certainly seems like Judkins' backfield to own on the ground going forward. He'll just need Cleveland's defense to have more strong showings to keep the game close for him to be heavily involved.


  • One more rookie that I need to talk about is Elic Ayomanor, whom I put at WR10 in this class and wanted to have higher if not for him falling to being the 20th receiver taken. He's already established himself as a featured player in the Titans' offense with a 75.13% snap rate (at least 72.73% in every game), a route on 75% of the team's drop backs, and a 20% target share. Scoring a TD in each of the last two weeks has helped him to average 10.90 points so far as a Day 3 steal. Tennessee's offense has been pretty scattershot so far, with head coach Brian Callahan relinquishing playcalling duties this week, so hopefully #1 pick Cam Ward can find some consistency to allow Ayomanor to shine.
  • A more proven WR who has had incredible usage so far is Garrett Wilson. According to PFF's tracking, he's been in on 98.33% of the Jets' snaps so far and ran a route on 100% of the drop backs, so I guess it's not necessarily a surprise that he has a monstrous 38.96% target share. Seeing at least 37.14% of the targets in every game has resulted in 18.63 points per game so far, and with the lack of other options in the passing game, that rate might not drop very far.

    Aside from the change in New York's coaching staff and quarterback, a notable difference this year has been Wilson's alignment. He's only lined up out wide on 60.45% of his snaps so far after that number was 76.12% last season and 70.17% the year before that. Getting more looks out of the slot can be an effective way to ensure that their #1 receiver always stays involved with easy targets.


  • Chris Olave, who was college teammates with Wilson and selected one pick after him in 2022, is also seeing heavy usage so far. He actually leads the league in targets so far with 37 thanks to the Saints running plays at the fastest pace in the league, a staple of coach Kellen Moore's offenses.

    Olave has seen double-digit looks in every game so far for a 31.90% target share while playing 89.95% of the snaps and running a route on 93.28% of the drop backs. Although he hasn't been the most most effective with all of this volume due to the quarterback play of Spencer Rattler, averaging 13.17 points so far is a pretty decent floor. Considering how Olave hasn't had any luck finding the end zone yet, more points should come.


  • Another Saint being heavily featured is tight end Juwan Johnson, who has perhaps bene the most surprising breakout star of this early season. He is averaging 14.20 points, second-best among TEs through three weeks, with absolutely elite usage in this new, fast-paced offensive system.

    Johnson has played a position-high 94.98% of the snaps (at least 90.41% in every game), with an 87.31% route participation rate and 24.14% target share. He only averaged 7.22 points with 64.03%, 66.24%, and 12.77% last year, but perhaps this emergence shouldn't have come as a complete shock since New Orleans did give him a 3 year extension worth over $30 million in the offseason. If he keeps up this production, that might end up a great deal.


  • Staying at TE, Dalton Kincaid is off to a hot start, but there are some reasons to remain hesitant about it keeping up. After scoring exactly two TDs in each of his first two seasons, he's already hit that mark in just three games to help him average 13.37 points so far, but his utilization hasn't really improved. The former 1st round pick is still only playing 50.91% of the snaps with a route participation rate of 60.68% resulting in just a 16.49% target share.

    Maybe these back to back games with 6 looks (good for 24% and 22.22% target shares) are a better sign of things to come with intent to use Kincaid when he is out there. It's hard to put up numbers when you're not on the field, though, so without a role change, it feels like he will be TD-dependent. Based the aforementioned scoring rates of his first two years, I'm not sure you can rely on that.
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