Top 2026 NFL Rookie WRs

The NFL is back! I started writing this annual post at the beginning of the summer but got sidetracked by writing about the NBA, trips, and other responsibilities, but I wanted to make sure to get it done before any of these rookie wide receivers play. It's a much deeper position than the running backs, but I'm not sure quite how much star power it will end up with.

As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides, and the statistical marks that he looks at. I also make note of players' physical traits more than he does, but athleticism tends to matter less at this position than for running backs or tight ends.

Yards per team pass attempt (YPTPA) and yards per route run (YPRR) are the key production markers to keep in mind since they help tell a better story of a player's stats than raw numbers due to the huge differences in offensive styles from school to school. I'm also looking at how old they were when they became contributors and the percentage of their team's receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in games they participated in. On the athletic testing side, 40 yard dash, the subsequent height-adjusted speed score (HaSS), vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone time, and the short shuttle are all under consideration for WRs. I'm more focused on getting an idea of how athletic these prospects may or may not be than whether they hit certain thresholds, though.

Once again, all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic, and the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.

1. Jordyn Tyson - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Saints

Tyson was one of the more divisive figures of the 1st round with the perception of how high he'd go varying to a large degree during draft, but I'm a big fan. He didn't have as many college stops as his older brother Jaylon, who was an NBA 1st rounder two years ago, but Jordyn started first his career at Colorado, where he led a 1-11 team in receiving yards and touchdowns as a true freshman. He did that despite missing the final three games with a torn ACL, MCL, and PCL, and his pro-rated market shares of 27.57% and 50%, respectively, are excellent for an 18 year old, and he had a strong 2.79 YPRR.

Following the coaching change to Deion Sanders and reportedly not feeling wanted, Tyson was part of the massive roster overhaul and transferred to Arizona State, where he missed all but a handful of snaps in 2023 as his knee recovered. He came back stronger than ever as a redshirt sophomore to put up 75 catches for 1,101 yards, and 10 touchdowns in only 12 games, resulting in outstanding marks of 3.48 YPTPA, 3.04 YPRR, a 38.27% reception share, 40.81% yardage share, and 45.45% TD share.

Nagging hamstring strains to both legs limited Tyson this past season to drop those figures to 2.19, 2.37, 37.58%, 34.50%, and 72.73%, but those are all still better than a lot of his peers. His early breakout, best-season market shares, and even a career 2.71 YPRR combine for an elite production profile, and he was only 21.69 years old on draft day. 

Although Tyson wasn't healthy enough to participate in testing at the combine or a pro day, he was able to put on a private workout for teams before the draft to show his recovery from the hamstrings. He did join the measurements portion of the combine to confirm his 6'2.125" and 203 pound frame that allows him to play either outside or in the slot, and he makes the most out of that catch radius with good hands. Because he can get open with craft in addition to winning at the catch point with acrobatic grabs, Brugler even gave a Stefon Diggs comp.

Tyson was selected much higher in the draft than Diggs with the scary injury history not enough to prevent him from going in the top-10, and New Orleans is a really nice landing spot. Kellen Moore is a great offensive mind whose teams always tend to run a lot of plays thanks to a fast pace, and Tyler Shough improved at a nice rate as the second half of the season went on. The rookie will unfortunately start the season on IR with more hamstring issues, but whenever he makes his debut, he has a wide open opportunity to immediately become the #2 WR next to Chris Olave. While the Saints like Devaugn Vele (after surprisingly trading a 4th and 7th for him) and fellow rookie Bryce Lance also brings upside to the WR room, Tyson has the talent and runway to make an early impact just like he did in college.

2. Carnell Tate - 1st round, 4th overall, 1st WR drafted - Titans

While I think that Tyson will have the biggest impact on a per game basis, you can definitely make the case that Tate will have the best season-long stats as a rookie. Although it was a surprise just how high he went in the NFL draft, he was generally accepted to be the first WR selected thanks to having a pretty safe overall profile. As a sophomore, Tate was a contributor to Ohio State's 2024 national championship team playing alongside 1st rounder Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, a likely top-5 pick in next year's draft, and then he truly broke out as a 20 year old junior.

Tate's overall totals don't jump off the page due to missing three games, but in the contests that he played his 2.74 YPTPA, 3.03 YPRR, 28.61% yardage share, and 31.03% touchdown share were all strong marks. He can get a bit of a pass on the 20.73% reception share due to working more down the field with 17.2 yard per catch and playing next to a generational prospect like Smith. For Tate's three-year career, he averaged 2.27 YPRR, which is more than acceptable, especially for an early declare prospect.

Already holding high draft stock, Tate didn't do a full workout at the combine but showed that he has the prototypical physical tools of an outside receiver by running a solid 4.53 40 yard dash at 6'2.25" and 192 pounds. His 6'6" wingspan also doesn't hurt with the 50/50 balls that he comes away with down the field. Joining a Titans team that signed the 5'8" Wan'Dale Robinson to be the top target competition, the rookie is expected to have a prominent role. 31 year old Calvin Ridley is coming off of a broken leg, and while Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike showed some nice flashes as rookies, Tate earned way higher draft capital for a reason. The main question is how much of a leap will last year's #1 overall pick Cam Ward make with a new coaching staff.

3. Makai Lemon - 1st round, 20th overall, 3rd WR drafted - Eagles (traded up)

Lemon is an interesting case after he was expected to go in the top half of the 1st round before the Eagles eventually moved up to stop his fall. He had a 2.05 YPRR in a very limited role as a freshman before posting an elite 3.03 rate as a sophomore despite an uneven offense. Lemon only averaged 1.75 YPTPA that year with 23.85% of the team's receiving yards his only notable market share number. Things came together in a big way this past year, though, as he posted a 2.96 YPTPA, 3.13 YPRR, a 30.15% reception share, 32.4% yardage share, and 44% TD share.

Having a birthday in June of 2004, Lemon is on the older side for his year (he's actually older than Tyson despite being a grade below him) to make that a 21 year old breakout as a junior, but those are still elite numbers, as is his 3.02 career YPRR. At 5'11.125", 192 pounds and wearing a single digit number at USC, it's easy to make a a comparison to Amon-Ra St. Brown (5'11.5" and 197 pounds at his combine) like Daniel Jeremiah did. Lemon's 4.50 40 at his pro day isn't going to blow anyone away but is adequate enough, especially for the type of receiver he is with his quickness and versatility to work out of the slot.

Landing in Philadelphia should provide a nice opportunity immediately with the departure of AJ Brown. Lemon missed a good amount of the offseason with hamstring issues, so he might start the season as the #3 receiver but could easily finish as the #2 behind DeVonta Smith by the end of the season. Trade acquisition Dontayvion Wicks has been productive in a limited role, so we'll see if provides tough competition throughout the season. They made the move up to draft Lemon for a reason, though, and his type of talent should show itself sooner rather than later.

Top 2026 NFL Rookie RBs

The NFL Draft has long been over, and I finally finished my first dynasty league rookie draft of the season. That means that now is as good of a time as ever to go through some rookie rankings, starting with the weakest group in this class. There weren't many running backs taken overall and especially not early as a lot of the prospects have question marks. 

I ended up going a bit longer than expected on the clear top runner, but that's reflective of this draft with shorter write ups thereafter. As usual, I'm taking into account three components when evaluating these prospects: their production profile, their athleticism, and where they were drafted. As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides that go over his statistical models and how RBs' speed scores (based on 40 yard dash and weight) are important.

I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's total offensive touchdowns, and his share of the team's receptions in the games that he played. Besides speed score, I'm looking at vertical jumps and broad jumps to get a further idea of physical traits, and all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic. Finally, the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.

1. Jeremiyah Love - 1st round, 3rd overall, 1st RB drafted - Cardinals

Like last year, this is the easiest start possible given Love's complete profile. You can argue that a team with as many roster needs as Arizona shouldn't take a running back so high (his draft slot will earn him the most guaranteed money at the position in NFL history, for example), but what is a widely held opinion is that he is the best skill position player in this draft. Perhaps even the best player overall.

Love broke out as a 19 year old sophomore on Notre Dame's national runner up team in 2024 with 163 carries for 1,125 yards (6.90 per carry) and 17 touchdowns along with 28 catches for 237 yards and another 2 scores. That resulted in a strong 27.54% touchdown share and 9.46% reception share but just okay 1.34 total yards per team play and 0.53 receiving yards team per pass attempt. This past season, however, he had similar yet improved raw numbers despite fewer games played, and thus his market shares were great across the board.

Carrying the ball 199 times for 1,372 yards (6.89), Love tied the Fighting Irish record with 18 rushing touchdowns, and with his 27 catches for 280 yards and 3 more end zone trips, his 21 total TDs set a new record in the school's long history. He would've also broken the records for most rushing yards and yards from scrimmage had he not been slowed by rib injury during his last game of the season or had the team not been frustratingly left out of the playoff bracket. Altogether, the Doak Walker award winner and Heisman trophy finalist scored 33.33% of the team's offensive TDs, averaged 2.20 TY/P and 0.87 RY/PA, and caught 12.44% of their receptions.

Love showed out at the Combine despite being a lock to be the top RB in this week class, which shows what kind of competitor he is and how confident he is in his athleticism. At 6'0" and 212 pounds, he blazed a 4.36 40 yard dash for an elite 117.33 speed score. He uses that strong frame and competitiveness as a very willing blocker, often leading the way on designed quarterback runs by the goal line that hurt his own scoring numbers. Sharing a backfield with a fellow 1st round pick (see below) didn't help either, and yet he still hits basically every mark. The reception share isn't at the top of the class but is still plenty good as he displayed dynamic ability as a receiver, with his one hander against Texas A&M a good example.

Altogether, Love possesses a three-down skill set with a terrific production profile, high-end physical tools, and about as high of a pedigree as you could get. Not even turning 21 until the end of May, he lands in a situation that isn't necessarily great but could be worse. The offensive line has potential after signing Isaac Seumalo and drafting Chase Bisontis in the 2nd round to improve both guard spots. In the short term, Jacoby Brissett displayed last season that he can run a functional passing game with a strong group of targets in Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson. The selection of Carson Beck in the 3rd round leaves a lot to be desired as a long-term QB to line up next to, but they could have another high draft pick in next year's stronger class. The signing of Tyler Allgeier to go with veteran holdover James Conner and 2024 2nd round pick Trey Benson is what made picking a RB at #3 such a surprising choice. The latter two are coming off of season-ending injuries, though, and have no attachment to a brand new coaching staff in place. They may cap Love's upside as a rookie with something of a committee, but his ascension to one of the league's stars should only be a matter of when, not if.

2. Jadarian Price - 1st round, 32nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Seahawks

Notre Dame made history in the 1st round with this being the first time in the common draft era that the first two RBs selected came from the same school. Love and Price are also just the sixth pair of RB teammates to go in the 1st round and the first since Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (Arkansas) in 2008. Naturally, Price doesn't have a strong production profile given Love's dominance, so there's a lot of projecting needed here.

The main appeal for Price is his big play ability that was on display with his 15 total touchdowns on just 131 touches as a redshirt junior last season. Two of those came on special teams en route to being named a first team All-American kick returner (12 for 450 yards), and two others came as a receiver despite having just 6 catches for 87 yards. Hardly being involved at all in the passing game is the biggest knock for Price as he had paltry reception shares of 2.20%, 1.35%, and 2.76% over his three seasons.

That also resulted in just 0.27 RY/PA and 1.01 TY/P, with a 20.63% touchdown share being the only production metric even close to average in this class, but again, this was always going to be the case next to Love. Price did rank second within the class with 19.22% of his career carries going for 10+ yards, and looking more at physical traits, his Combine performance showed that he is a good, if unspectacular athlete. At 5'10.625" and 203 pounds, his 4.49 40 time was a little surprising given all of his long runs, but it was still enough for a decent speed score of 99.89. The 10'4" broad jump and 35" vertical better displayed his explosiveness, and he put up 21 bench press reps to boot.

What really solidified Price's ranking in this class was Seattle taking him in the 1st round. Possessing a monstrous defense and strong offensive line, the Super Bowl champions love to run the ball, and the 22 year old will have the opportunity to be the Week 1 starter. With Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL in January and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker lost to free agency, Price will be competing with Emanuel Wilson, who only received $1.6 million in free agency after being a Packers backup, and George Holani, who was re-signed for under $1.1 million after mostly playing special teams. Draft capital doesn't always guarantee playing time, but in this situation, the rookie has a great chance to be featured more as a pro than he was in college.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-9 in 2025

The NFL regular season is now halfway over, so how teams are utilizing their players is pretty established by this point. Still, there are always some notable changes with players' opportunities, whether by a lineup change, a teammate's injury, or in one case here, a return from suspension. That's what's covered here, and as usual,  fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats come from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• After being suspended the first six games of the season, Rashee Rice has immediately made a huge impact. Despite only being in on 40.74% of the snaps and 47.50% of the drop backs in a blowout win his first game, he wasn't exactly eased in with a 29.41% target share leading to two touchdowns and 23.2 PPR points.
  
  Over the next two games, Rice was back to a full-time player with snap rates of 85.51% and 81.67% and route participation rates of 82.93% and 79.49%. His target shares have technically gone down to 28.13% and 24.14%, but those are of course still strong numbers leading to 27.37% overall. He's even getting some carries near the goal line for more scoring opportunities to go along with his coveted slot role (about 40% of snaps) that leads to so many layup looks, so his 22.43 points per game so far looks sustainable.

  Rashee Rice has a touchdown in his first game back
  
  LVvsKC on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/oueOtDSk2I

  — NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025

  
  
• Things finally normalized this past game, but Ja'Marr Chase has been seeing absurd volume since Joe Flacco joined the Bengals. Overall through four games together, last year's receiving Triple Crown winner has a 38.04% target share while playing 98.88% of the snaps and running a route on 98.90% of the drop backs for 25.35 points per game. Before "only" having 8 targets last game (17.78%), that was a 45.76% target share, and with Flacco letting it fly so often (43.25 attempts per game), it translated to 18 targets per game.
  
  This stretch has brought Chase's overall season averages to 20.86 points, a 94.95% snap rate, 96.69% route participation, and a 33.75% target share (resulting in 11.89 looks). For comparison, in last year's historic season, those numbers were 23.71, 92.69%, 97.79%, and 27.87% (10.29), so he's still managed to get by with sheer volume to offset losing Joe Burrow's efficiency.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 1-3 in 2025

We are now fully back! I'm not going to be writing these type of posts as often this season since things can change so much week to week in the NFL, but being three weeks in now gives us a decent sample size to look at. These deep dives are meant to look beyond the regular box scores and instead focus on how teams are utilizing their skill position players. These underlying peripherals can often be a better indicator of what is to come than the raw numbers that have been put up so far.

Like last year, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Let's start with arguably the best player in fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey. The only thing ever stopping him from being the #1 pick each year are questions about his health, and despite a calf scare right before Week 1, he's ironically been one of the only healthy 49ers so far. And the team definitely isn't worried about trying to preserve him as the dual-threat RB once again has an elite role.
  
  Through three games, McCaffrey has played 81.13% of the snaps, run a route on 81.60% of the drop backs, been given. 75.36% of the RB carries, and seen an absurd 29.09% target share. Once more for emphasis: he's getting the targeted at the rate of an elite WR as a running back! As a result, he's averaging 23.3 points per game despite not finding the end zone on the ground yet and only scoring one receiving touchdown. The target share will come down once more receiving options get healthy, but with the track record that both this offense and he has, the TDs will come.

  Mac to CMC! @49ers TD!
  
  SFvsNO on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/6hnm17aFuF

  — NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025

  
  

• A more split backfield is happening in Houston, and it's been interesting to see the progression of the group. The Texans initially had four RBs see at least 7 snaps in Week 1 before making Dameon Pierce inactive in Week 2, and now in Week 3 it was down to just two 'backs getting snaps.
  
  Veteran Nick Chubb has been solid with a consistent role, playing over half the snaps in all three games (52% overall) with his route participation rate progressing from 26.47% to 30% to 39.53% (32.71% overall). That's led to an increase in target share from 3.7% to 8.7% to 11.11% (8.14% overall) to go along getting 66.67% of the RB carries, resulting in 9.4 points per game.
  
  Chubb's never been a big contributor in the passing game, though, so more intriguing is the role increase for rookie Woody Marks, who I was high on in this class as a pass-catcher. From snaps (11.11% to 26.53% to 47.62%) to routes (8.82% to 23.33% to 44.19%) to RB carry share (14.29% to 20% to 40%) to target share (0% to 4.35% to 5.56%), his usage numbers have gone up across the board week over week. If this can stay around an even split with Marks getting most of the receiving work, he could become an underrated contributor.

Top NFL Rookie WRs for 2025

It's been a while! I meant to get this out not much longer after the rookie running backs and TEs posts in May, but the NBA offseason having action start sooner than ever threw me off before travel plans over the summer. Now the 2025 NFL season is here, so I'll will fire through this wide receiver class that's not as awesome as recent years but still has a lot to like.

As a reminder, a lot of what I base profiles on comes from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years with certain statistical lenses to look through. I also tend to look at athleticism testing a little more than he does, but Ryan Heath's research at Fantasy Points indicates findings that it shouldn't be too much of a factor in success compared to other positions. Still, I'll be referencing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast); draft day age; breakout age; production profiles based on yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA), and market share rates; and then situation comes in at the end.

1. Tetairoa McMillan - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Panthers

There is a lot to like about McMillan's complete profile. He broke out as a true freshman (albeit as a 19 year old) largely based on accounting for 30.77% of Arizona's touchdowns. He really took off as a sophomore with an elite 3.02 yards per team pass attempt, a great 2.79 yards per route run, and strong market shares across the board with 27.11% of the team's catches, 34.98% of the yards, and 27.78% of the TDs. Finally, he maintained his production as a junior with a nearly identical 3.02 Y/TPA, 2.87 YPRR, and per game averages even as the team wasn't as good around him, resulting in improved rates of 32.06%, 44.34%, and 44.44%.

McMillan brings great size at 6'4.125" and 219 lbs, and although he didn't work out at the combine, he reportedly ran a more than adequate 4.53 40 yard dash at his pro day. That combination along with his track record of production means that he has all the traits to become an alpha receiver, and getting picked in the top-10 by a team who needs just that is enticing. Head coach Dave Canales has talked about running his passing attack through his top outside target and showed that through the beginning of last season with Diontae Johnson (before he apparently crashed out across multiple teams) and the prior year as offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans. Adam Thielen getting traded last week opens up even more target opportunity, so McMillan should be the clear cut top rookie WR this season.

2. Travis Hunter - 1st round, 2nd overall, 1st WR* drafted - Jaguars (traded up)

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is of course a fascinating case since he will be playing cornerback in addition to wide receiver, hence the asterisk above. The fact that Jacksonville gave up a king's ransom to move up to take him with the #2 pick gives a good idea of their big plans for him, so he could end up being the better long-term investment in dynasty over McMillan. We don't know just how many of the offensive snaps that Hunter will be playing compared just yet, and his statistical profile won't overwhelm you, which is understandable given how he pulled double duty.

Only a month younger than McMillan, Hunter broke out as a 20 year old sophomore upon transferring to Colorado after shocking the world by initially going to HBCU Jackson State as the #1 recruit in the nation. He only had 2.04 Y/TPA and 2.17 YPRR, however, with a 23.36% reception share, 26.06% yards share, and 21.74% touchdown share. Those improved across the board last season to 2.61, 2.51, 27.20%, 30.43%, and especially to 40.54%, but that still isn't necessarily elite anywhere.

The scouts rave about Hunter's traits, though, and Reception Perception guru Matt Harmon mentioned his fluid movements in the same breath as a young Odell Beckham Jr. They have similar size with Hunter 6'0.375" and 188 lbs to OBJ's 5'11.25" and 198, and perhaps with more focus on developing more as a receiver, the comparisons could continue. The Jaguars already have Brian Thomas Jr. as a #1 option for the foreseeable future after an outstanding rookie year, but there is a ton of opportunity for targets behind him with the departures of Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. New head coach Liam Coen brings an exciting element to this offense now after he followed in Canales' footsteps as the Buccaneers OC for one year before a promotion, and Hunter could end up playing a large role in it.

Top NFL Rookie TEs for 2025

Teams across the NFL have begun their OTAs, so now is a good time to continue looking at this rookie class. After the running backs that I started with, I'd say that tight ends are the next strongest group this year. To reiterate, this isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

And once again, the basis of what I look for originates from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, although TEs are newer to his model. Based on his research and Ryan Heath's at Fantasy Points, athleticism matters the most at this position compared to running backs and especially compared to wide receivers. I'll be weighing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast) and draft day age before production profiles based on career yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, and then situation comes in at the end.

1. Colston Loveland - 1st round, 10th overall pick, 1st TE drafted - Bears

The week of the draft, I posted in my work's "Hot Take Board" that although Tyler Warren will be drafted first, Loveland has the highest upside of this class and will end up as the TE1...and then Chicago made me look smart by taking Loveland first despite all of the mock drafts and rankings out there. He didn't give us any athleticism measurements but did come in at an impressive 6'5.75" and 248 lbs while only turning 21 just a few weeks before the draft.

That youth makes it even more impressive how efficient Loveland was in a limited Michigan passing attack. As a sophomore, he caught 45 passes for 649 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games for the national champions, and while that might not sound like much at the surface level, that's where YPRR tells more of the story given how little his team threw the ball. His 2.38 mark that year is pretty elite, and it was even better last season, 2.67, when his raw totals were 56 catches, 582 yards, and 5 scores in only 10 games. Overall, he finished with 2.22 YPRR for his career before getting awesome draft capital as the first pick of Ben Johnson's career as a head coach. The hottest offensive coordinator on the market, Johnson ran the show in Detroit when Sam LaPorta shockingly led the position in total points as a rookie two years ago, and while I wouldn't expect that lofty of a season due to the WR target competition, Loveland certainly is in line to pace his 2025 peers.

2. Tyler Warren - 1st round, 14th overall pick, 2nd TE drafted - Colts

Warren was widely expected to be the first TE off the board after he had 104 catches, 1,233 yards, and 8 TDs last year with an additional 218 yards and 4 scores on 26 carries, but I'm not entirely surprised that he fell slightly since that came somewhat out of nowhere as a redshirt senior. As a high school quarterback who joined a position group at Penn State that contained three other NFL players (Pat Freiermuth, Brenton Strange, and Theo Johnson), it's understandable that he was a late bloomer, having just turned 23 this past week compared to Loveland.

It all came together last year for 2.78 YPRR after being at 1.41 and 1.34 the previous two seasons, and that brought his career rate to a strong 1.98. Neither of these top-two TEs gave us athletic testing, but you can see on film how much Warren beasted opponents at 6'5.5" and 256 lbs. The problem in the immediate future is that he landed in Indianapolis, where either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones will be throwing passes to him as a rookie. While I already would've had him as #2 in this class, I think that drops him to a tier by himself after Loveland.

Top NFL Rookie RBs for 2025

Now that the NFL Draft is firmly in the rearview mirror and my first dynasty league rookie draft is over, I wanted to put together some thoughts on this year's class. It's a total flip from last year's strong group of wide receivers and flawed running backs, so this time I'm starting with the unusually deep class of RBs. This isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

As often mentioned, the three factors that I take into consideration for this are production profiles, physical traits, and situation. I care most about the first part and have based a lot of what I look for on JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, so I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's receptions, and his share of the team's total touchdowns in the games that he played. Athleticism does matter a bit more at this position than at WR, though, so players' Speed Score (based on 40 yard dash and weight) and jumps are important. Stats cited are coming from Sports Reference while measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic.

1. Ashton Jeanty - 1st round, 6th overall, 1st RB drafted - Raiders

This is an easy start after Jeanty finished just shy of breaking Barry's Sanders' NCAA record for rushing yards in a season and then got top-10 draft capital to a RB-needy team. Even before Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a junior, he was a great prospect based on a sophomore year that saw him have 2.42 total yards per play, 1.85 receiving yards per attempt, a 23.76% reception share, and 41.30% TD share. Anything approaching 2, 0.70, 12%, and 35% as a best season mark in those categories is great, and he shattered each of those as a 19 year old.

Jeanty wasn't asked to do as much through the air last year due to the heavy workload on the ground, but he still had a respectable 8.81% reception share while bumping his TY/P and TD% to 2.82 and 45.45%, respectively. He did measure only 5'8.5" and didn't work out at all in the pre-draft process (because he didn't need to), but he is a solid 211 lbs and obviously showed he can be a workhorse with 397 total touches last year.

RBs getting drafted this highly are practically guaranteed to see large workloads anyway, but both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are no longer with the Raiders after leading the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert was signed as a veteran option, but at 33 years old, the speedster will likely only be a change of pace option and not much of a threat to receiving work. Jeanty could be a top-5 fantasy RB immediately and is the 1.01 in rookie drafts.

2. Omarion Hampton - 1st round, 22nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Chargers

In a lot of classes, Hampton would be the RB1 and was the only other 1st rounder at the position thanks to a very complete profile after 1,500+ rushing yards, 15 TDs, and 29+ catches as both a sophomore and junior. He averaged a strong 1.82 TY/P and decent 0.49 RY/PA with solid 9.93% and 29.63% market shares in the first of those years before improving across the board to elite marks of 2.40, 0.99, 17.35%, and 39.53%.

Hampton did this at 5'11.75" and 221 lbs, and even with that size he ran a 4.46 40 yard dash for a great Speed Score of 111.71. He also had a 38" vertical and 10'10" broad jump to further show his explosiveness, so he certainly looks the part of a bell cow 'back. How soon until he gets that role is to be determined because the Chargers are an interesting landing spot. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman typically like to lean on the running game often, and they've chosen to leave last year's leading rushers, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, unsigned.

Najee Harris was added instead, but it's only a one-year deal with $5.25 million guaranteed before another possible $4M in incentives, per OverTheCap.com. While both Harris and Hampton are big, well-rounded RBs, the veteran doesn't offer much big-play ability as he infamously doesn't have a run of 40+ yards in his career. Even if it's not top-10 draft capital like Jeanty, 1st round RBs are usually featured, so Hampton could easily be the leader of this committee by season's end ahead of Harris hitting free agency again. I'm also a fan Raheim Sanders, whom they added as a surprising undrafted free agent, and perhaps he could work his way into becoming Hampton's backup a year from now. 

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 14-15 2024

As we near the end of the NFL season, injuries and benchings are happening across the league with some interesting fallout for surrounding players. There are also still some developments in the outcome of the many trades that happened this year, so that's where I come in.

Like I always say, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The Jaguars passing attack has seen a lot of change in the second half of the season between Evan Engram missing time with hamstring and labrum injuries, Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone in Week 8, Gabe Davis suffering a torn meniscus in Week 11, and Trevor Lawrence missing time with an injury to his shoulder injury and then a concussion. Just about the only constant has been star rookie Brian Thomas, and even he was affected by a chest injury, although it didn't cost him any games.
  
  While I was excited about him in my pre-season rookie wide receiver rankings, I wasn't high on him enough because he more than looks the part of an alpha WR. Overall on the season he is averaging 15.33 points while playing 77.47% of Jacksonville's snaps, running a route on 83.76% of the drop backs, and earning a 22.76% target share, and he's really come on of late. It may be due to fellow perimeter threat Davis going down, getting past the chest injury in Week 8 that immediately saw him with three straight target shares below 15%, or just backup quarterback Mac Jones locking onto him. In any case, Thomas is averaging 20.35 with 86.97%/93.17%/30.07% splits from Week 11 on, and he's poised to finish strong in the fantasy semifinals and championship against the Raiders and Titans, respectively.
  

  And he can do this! pic.twitter.com/G86SfmmggF

  — Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 18, 2024

  Another young player who has stepped up for them is second year tight end Brenton Strange. Last year's 2nd round pick basically assumes Engram's role whenever the veteran is out, and he's looked solid. Between Weeks 2-5 and now 15, Strange is averaging 10.86 points with a 75.83% snap rate, 70.67% route participation, and 16.67% target share in his five games as the primary TE.
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 11-13 2024

It's crunch time in the fantasy regular season, and the NFL schedule this year made things a little awkward. Perhaps due to Thanksgiving being so late in November, there were six teams on bye in Week 12, none in Week 13, and then six more now in Week 14 with managers making one last push for a playoff spot. Sometimes you have to be Gio-ing Deep into depth charts.

As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Partly due to the holiday I haven't had a chance to write recently, and what a run it's been for fringe wide receivers with hyphenated names in that span! Since joining the Saints in Week 9, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has only played 58.4% of the snaps, run a route on 72.31% of the drop backs, and earned a 9.91% target share (11 total)...yet he's scored FOUR touchdowns in five games to average 13.93 points. And this comes after only catching three TDs in 33 games over the past two years on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him and zero in 6 games with Josh Allen and the Bills this year before being released.
  
  Even if you remove the first game due to MVS still adjusting to his new team, he's only been playing 66.12% of the snaps with a 79.17% route participation and 12.05% target share, so it's hard to believe that he'll keep this scoring up. Finding the end zone four times in his last 10 targets has been impressive, though.
  
  
• Similarly, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored eight times in his last eight games, even dating back to before the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I talked about how Calvin Ridley has taken off since then in my last post, and now in six games as a starter, NWI has averaged 14.6 points with a 93.83% snap rate, 95.09% route participation, and 17.98% target share. That kind of usage is a little easier to trust, even if TD regression is bound to hit. Will Levis has been playing better in the four games since coming back from his shoulder injury, averaging 16.75 points, and with a favorable schedule against the Jaguars twice, Colts, and Bengals, this passing game could determine some fantasy titles.
  
  
• Another passing attack that's been on the rise: the Browns with Jameis Winston, thanks in part to huge volume. They lead the league in drop backs per game with 45.92, and in Winston's five starts that number is 48.2 to help him average 21.34 points. And with the Amari Cooper trade also happening right before this stretch, the other pass catchers are absolutely thriving.
  
  Jerry Jeudy is averaging 21.68 points, which would be WR2 overall on the season, with 91.53%/96.28%/22.69% rates over these five weeks. That's of course inflated by his insane 235 yard #RevengeGame on MNF, the most ever for a player against his former team, but the fact that it came against the Broncos' previously elite defense makes it even more impressive. It's a bit crazy to think that it came on 13 looks that "only" made for a 22.81% target share in this pass happy offense.
  

  First play for the Browns... AND JERRY JEUDY IS FREE.
  
  📺: #CLEvsDEN on ESPN
  📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/MQsQirbiZN

  — NFL (@NFL) December 3, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 9-10 2024

Now that we're over halfway through the NFL regular season, we're really seeing roles emerge. Some have been more recent and/or due to a teammate's injury, and looking at these splits is why I write these posts. As usual, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The most obvious case of a new role is Chase Brown becoming a bell cow running back without Zack Moss, as showcased on TNF to start Week 10. I already wrote about the former starting to take over after Week 4, and from Weeks 4 through 8, Brown averaged 14.54 points while playing 47.16% of the snaps, running a route on 35.75% of the drop backs, earning a 9.87% target share, and seeing 60.95% of the RB carries compared to 8.28 points for Moss with 55.52%/48.04%/10.53%/39.05% rates. Then Moss unfortunately sustained a neck injury that's expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, and Brown has put up 26.7 and 22.4 points while seeing 100% of the RB carries.
  
  The Bengals made a minor trade for Khalil Herbert at the deadline, but he fumbled what would've been his only carry in his debut. And while he's a shifty back, Herbert's role with the Bears was similar to Brown's with a lack of a receiving role holding him back. At least, that was how Brown was being used because these these past two games he's set new season-highs in route participation (63.41% and then 75%) and target share (13.51% and then an eye-catching 20.37%). The more experienced Moss was getting those opportunities because he's more reliable in pass protection, but now that the second-year 'back is being trusted there, the sky is the limit.
  
  
• Travis Kelce is another player who has taken off since Week 4, which is when Rashee Rice suffered a brutal knee injury on friendly fire during an interception return after just four plays. In the first three games, the star tight end only averaged 5 points with a 13.95% target share despite an 84.97% snap rate and 85.98% route participation. Starting with the game that Rice was injured in, Kelce's splits are now 17.50 points, a massive 31.37%, 81.32%, and 90.08% over the last six contests.

  Travis Kelce's first TD of year? On #NationalTightEndsDay!
  
  📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uOQ8BVlAiK

  — NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-8 2024

I hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween! With October officially in the books, we're about halfway through the NFL season already. That means there is a good sample size now for the vast majority of players, and with two weeks to look at since my last post, there are plenty of options to choose from. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• After a ridiculously slow start, the tight end position is starting to come on of late across the league, and veteran Zach Ertz is having an underrated campaign among them. Overall, he's averaging a modest 9.31 points despite a nice role with a 20% target share while running a route on 78.84% of Washington's drop backs despite only being in on 67.42% of the snaps. He's not in there to block much, basically, and over the last three weeks he's been more effective with a little bump in usage to average 13.17 with a 70.79% snap rate, 76.27% route participation, and 22.83% target share.
  
  Some people were excited about rookie Ben Sinnott after he was drafted 53rd overall as the second TE off the board, but Ertz has has absolutely dominated the receiving role for the Commanders. Sinnott has only played 30.87% of the snaps and run a route on 17.06% of drop backs, which has resulted in a minuscule 0.89% target share. Ironically, he went from not even seeing a single target the first six weeks to scoring a touchdown on his first look...but then he went back 0 targets in Week 8.
  
  
• The first TE taken in this draft was of course Brock Bowers, and he's lived up to the "generational" moniker at the position. Already as a rookie he's second in scoring with a 14.09 average while having a 77.13% snap rate, 75.86% route participation, and massive 24.44% target share. Those numbers are even larger over the last five games, which coincides with the last time that top target Davante Adams (hamstring and trade) and #2 TE Michael Mayer (personal reasons) played. Since Week 4, Bowers' splits are 15 points and 82.67%/82.72%/27.67%...and that's with just one (1) touchdown scored so far. 535 receiving yards usually results in more scores, and if the Raiders offense can get a little more competent to give him more chances, he could challenge for TE1 overall status.
  

  Bowers showing off the hands on #NationalTightEndsDay
  
  📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/RUjIkgkYcx

  — NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2024

With this week's post a touch later than usual, I'm going to keep it brief. You know the deal by this point of the season: fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Kenneth Walker III didn't have much success on the ground on TNF (just 32 yards on 14 carries), but he did add 37 yards through the air while setting a career-high with 8 catches. That continues a trend this year with the third-year running back now holding a 14.55% target share per game after that number was below 10% in each of the last two seasons.
  
  The new Seahawks coaching staff talked about over the offseason about using Walker in the passing game more, and that's come to fruition to give him a much higher floor than before with the 20.9 points last week a great example. Combine that with getting 75% of the RB carries, and you've got an elite RB role.
  
  
• In that same same, George Kittle continued to play like the best tight end in football by hauling in two more touchdowns to give him five on the season already. Scoring in four straight games has him tied for the most TDs in the league despite sitting out Week 3, and he's now averaging 17.26 points per game while the next closest is 13.77.
  
  This scoring rate may regress to the mean, but Kittle is also just seeing a ton of short-range opportunities with Christian McCaffrey still sidelined. His 7.7 aDOT is slightly below his 7.9 career average and way below last year's 9.9. That could help explain the jump from a 20.18% target share to 23.33% despite lower snap and route shares of 87.13% and 80%. Those are still high-end marks, of course; he's just been banged up a bit more to miss some time. Maybe things change in the second half of the season, but this gap atop the TE rankings had to be called out.

  Kittle's footwork 😮‍💨#SFvsSEA on Prime Video
  Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/t7BgSL1A5z

  — NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 5 2024

Well, last week's post ended up cursing the Minnesota guys while Dontayvion Wicks couldn't cash in on more great usage (28% target share!), but Josh Downs and Chase Brown continued to earn more work. A few of the guys for this week are on bye, so they won't have go through those kind of swings for at least one weekend.

As always when looking at notable stats across the league, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now is that the #3 overall pick, Drake Maye, is making his first start for the Patriots. The situation around him doesn't project to be great due to the offensive line, but I'm curious to see how their 2nd rounder, Ja'Lynn Polk, does with this change. After mixing in as a part-time player the first three weeks, Polk has played 91.13% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.11% of the drop backs, and earned a 20.97% target share over the last two games. He's only been able to turn that into 8.3 total points, but if he gets 6 or 7 targets again from Maye rather than Jacoby Brissett, maybe better results are on the way. I dug into Polk as a prospect right before the season here.
  
  Staying in New England, head coach Jerod Mayo made a big deal last week about Rhamondre Stevenson no longer starting due to fumbling in each of the first four games. While Antonio Gibson technically got the start, Stevenson still played the exact same 28 snaps (46.67%) as Gibson and led the team with 12 carries (66.67% of the running back share). Gibson ran a route on 43.24% of drop backs compared to 32.43%, but he only finished with one target to Stevenson's 4 (13.33% target share). Stevenson did get ruled out this morning due to a foot injury, so we'll see how much of the workload Gibson carries this week.

  Rhamondre Stevenson goes 33 yards for the TD!
  
  📺: #MIAvsNE on FOX
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/6KyiDrKa3I

  — NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-4 2024

After a quick detour to the NBA side last week due to the stunning trade that went down, Gio-ing Deep is back with more usage notes around the NFL! The sample size is getting a little larger now, so there are more takeaways that you can start to believe in from the data. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The 4-0 Vikings are one of the best surprises of the league so far, thanks in large part to Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones being tremendous free agent signings. The former leads the league in touchdown passes with 11 despite being just 22nd in pass attempts, and his 8.8 yards per attempt ranks 2nd in the league behind only the player he backed up last season, Brock Purdy. Darnold smartly joined a team that runs a similar scheme to what he was in last year, so he's hit the ground running with the kind of efficiency that the 49ers typically have. His current 10.4% touchdown percentage is bound to regress (league average is usually in the 4-5% range), but he can continue to lead a good offense, especially with Jordan Addison back now and TJ Hockenson opening up his practice window to return from injury. Combine that with Darnold's underrated rushing ability, and he could be a viable fantasy quarterback all season.
  

  Watch where the ball hits Jefferson.
  
  Darnold DIME.
  
  📺: #MINvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/bcQyqq6Qw7

  — NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

  Jones is already proving to be one of the best fantasy values of the year now that he's fully healthy again. He hasn't run for a TD since the opener and only added one more through the air so far, yet he's a top-10 running back (18.1 points per game) thanks to his typical efficiency and strong receiving role. After only getting 2 targets in Week 1 due to the blowout nature of the game, Jones has had at least 5 targets every week since, and he has a 19.19% target share on the season. Seeing 65.42% of the snaps and and 68.82% of the RB carries aren't quite as strong of rates, but those did bump up this past week to 82.35% and 88%. Minnesota might've simply been trying to feed him in his return to Green Bay for a #revengegame, but it at least shows that the volume potential is there.
  
  
• On the other side of that game, Dontayvion Wicks had the breakout game that his truthers have been waiting for since best ball draft szn with 5 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. There is important context that the Packers had to throw the ball 54 times as they fell behind 28-0, and Christian Watson only played 9 snaps due to unfortunately suffering a high-ankle sprain on one of Jordan Love's three interceptions.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2024

I say it every year, but Week 2 is always one of the most interesting slates of the NFL season since you start to see what might be real from the opener. It's still a small sample size that we're dealing with, but these were some of the observations that stood out most to me through two games. Once again, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The TNF game during into a blowout after Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another scary concussion, but there were a couple of other key notes from the Dolphins offense, as well. The most obvious is that with Raheem Mostert sitting out, De'Von Achane became an absolute workhorse. After being in a rotation as a rookie, even when Mostert was unavailable, Achane was given 22 carries (75.86% of the running back rushes) and 7 targets for a 18.92% target share. He also saw 7 targets (19.44%) in Week 1, so he has a 19.18% target share on the season so far with 26.25 fantasy points per game. Achane has lined up as a receiver on 25 of his 85 (29.41%) of his snaps so far, so he could finish as the #3 passing option in this offense throughout the year.

  Tua. Achane. Tie game.#BUFvsMIA on Prime Video
  Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BspX8Yhq4A

  — NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2024

  Perhaps the main competition for that role is new "tight end" Jonnu Smith, who also saw 7 targets on Thursday and turned them into 11.3 points. I put that position in quotes because he's basically playing as a big wide receiver, having lined up in the slot or out wide on 45 of his 52 snaps (86.54%) on the season. In Week 2, he was only in on 32 plays for a 41.56% snap rate, but he ran a route on 31 of them for a 68.89% route participation, and through two weeks he's run 48 routes in those 52 snaps (92.31%). So he's on the field to do one thing, and he did it at a much higher frequency than in Week 1 when he only had a 28.17% snap rate, 38.64% route participation, and 5.56% target share. I'm definitely keeping an eye on whether those rates continue to rise.
  
  
• Another new addition to a team is Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, and in Week 2, we saw more of the more open passing attack that was expected like in his previous offenses at the University of Washington. Perhaps it was due to Kenneth Walker being injured, but they increased their drop backs from 28 to 48. The new game plan benefited Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most as he saw 16 looks for a 37.21% target share after just 2 for 8% with the limited optortunities in the opener. His snap rates (79.10% and 82.86%) and route participation (89.29% and 91.67%) have held steady each week, but the team's different approach led to a jump from 3.9 points to 23.7.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2024

The NFL season officially started last week, and so did my football posts after a busy NBA offseason. That was more of a long-term outlook for this year's rookie WR class, and now I'm getting back into my week to week usage notes. These will be check ins about how players are being used; their statistical production, typically with points-per reception (PPR) fantasy points; and how sustainable all of that might be. Fantasy data and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The Ravens number two tight end, Isaiah Likely, kicking off the season with 9 catches, 111 yards, a touchdown, and almost a last-second game-winner on Thursday was the biggest news of the week. The 24 year old had flashed in his first two years whenever All-Pro Mark Andrews was out, but this coming with them playing together means that Likely could have standalone value. With Baltimore's lack of proven wide receiver depth, there was speculation that he could get a good amount of action with more two-TE sets, and that looks like it will be the case.
  
  On that note, let's not panic about Andrews despite only getting 2 targets, catching both for 14 yards. He still played 73.75% of the snaps and ran a route on 74.51% of Lamar Jackson's drop backs, which is comparable to the 76.54% and 84.59% in his full games last year. And let's remember his history against Steve Spagnuolo's double teams (see below) and that he's still getting into shape after missing a chunk of training camp after a car accident last month.
  
  This is more about Likely also being a weapon alongside Andrews. Thursday's star was in on 66.25% of the snaps and 68.63% of the routes while seeing 12 targets for a massive 30% target share. The last part won't stay that high, but first two have room for even more growth. With that amount of playing time and his talent, Likely could easily be the #3 target in this offense along with Andrews and Zay Flowers.
  

  Mark Andrews career vs. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo: pic.twitter.com/QNFVwuoQ3P

  — Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 13, 2024

  
  
• The following night, Jayden Reed going for 4 catches, 171 totals yards and two TDs was the biggest takeaway for me, even if the 70 yard TD came from a broken play. How the Packers would utilize all of their weapons was one of the biggest questions of draft season, and we got a lot of answers across the position groups. At WR, Reed is the guy you want, even if he is mostly limited to the slot in three-receiver sets. He scored 33.1 fantasy points despite his 71.64% snap rate, 73.68% route participation, and 18.75% target share all ranking second among their WRs behind Romeo Doubs (86.57%, 89.47%, and 21.88% for 9 points), and the carry that he scored on continued a trend from last year with his versatility.

NFL Rookie WRs Poised to Contribute in 2024

The NFL returns tonight! And after a little hiatus the last couple of years, I'm bringing back one of my favorite topics that I used to write for The Sports Fan Journal: Which rookie wide receives will contribute the most this season?

There are three factors that I take into consideration for this. The first, and most important, is how productive these prospects were in college. A lot of what I'm looking for is based on JJ Zachariason's research over the years (you should check out his prospect guide on LateRound.com) with market share numbers along with yards per route run (Y/RR) from Pro Football Focus. Next, I'm looking for physical traits shown at the NFL Combine (ideally) or college pro days. Lastly, I'm looking at the situation they landed in, which can be based on the draft capital teams invested in them and/or the amount of available targets there will be. 4for4.com has a very helpful list of targets and air yards that are unaccounted for from last season.

This year's wide receiver class is both strong at the top and deep, which made the order of this list complicated, but hopefully the profiles allow for some nuance with how I'm viewing them.

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. 1st round, 4th overall pick, 1st WR drafted

Imagine taking a Hall of Fame receiver and making his son 3 inches taller and 24 pounds heavier (6'3.25", 209 lbs at the combine) while being arguably being just as fast, and you'll get an idea of how good Marvin Harrison Jr. is. Although he didn't officially test, this year's Biletnikoff Award winner reportedly runs in the high 4.3s with a 3.94 shuttle and 10'8" broad jump, which helped him put up 14 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons.

Harrison's breakout came just a month after he turned 20 as he accounted for 33.33% of Ohio State's receiving touchdowns, 32.57% of their receiving yards, and 28.10% of their receptions in the '22-23 season. Those market shares improved to 53.85% (!!), 35.70%, and 27.35% in the 12 games that he played this past season even with CJ Stroud replaced at quarterback by Kyle McCord, who has since had to transfer to Syracuse. Harrison's efficiency was also outstanding and on the rise with 3.08 and 3.22 yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA) and 3.18 and 3.44 Y/RR (anything over 3 is elite in both metrics).

Harrison is often compared to both AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald, albeit with more speed than both, so it's fitting that he wears the same number as the former (it's pretty cool that he wears #18 in honor of his dad's QB, Peyton Manning) and was drafted to the same team as the latter. Arizona needed a new #1 receiver after the departures of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in back to back years, and they rank 6th in both available targets and available target share from last season. With Kyler Murray another year removed from his torn ACL, the first WR taken in this year's draft will have a more than adequate passer to feed him those vacated looks. I expect big things right out of the gate.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 17-18 2023

And just like that, the 2023-24 NFL regular season is done. I'm going to wrap up this series with just a few observations that cover both the fantasy season (with most finals in Week 17) and overall season. As I've written throughout, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• CeeDee Lamb won a lot of fantasy championships with his monstrous 40.2 points from 13 catches for 227 yards and touchdown, and the crazy thing is that it could've been an even bigger night if he hadn't lost a fumble reaching for the pylon. As if that's not enough, he had another 13 catch performance in the regular season finale for 35.5 points. Overall on the season, he finished with the most total PPR points among wide receivers and an average of 23.72 while playing 83.70% of the Cowboys' snaps, running a route on 91.42% of the dropbacks, and seeing 29.92% of the targets.
  
  Those are absolutely alpha receiver numbers, and they're even better when you isolate them from Week 6 on, which is when Lamb had a conversation with Mike McCarthy about how he's being used following their embarrassing loss to the 49ers. He proceeded to go on an insane 12 game stretch averaging 27.69 points with 87.84%, 92.49%, and 32.88% rates. It helped that McCarthy reverted the offense back to their pass-heavy ways instead of forcing a run-heavy game plan, and practically running the offense through Lamb resulted in them finishing the season 9-3. 108 catches for 1,391 yards and 11 TDs with 11 carries for another 92 yards and 2 scores would make for an awesome season let alone 12 game stretch, so I can't wait to see what he does for an encore next season.
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 13-16 2023

It's here: fantasy football championship week! Since my last post, rookies Tank Dell and Keaton Mitchell suffered unfortunate injuries, but Rachaad White and Trey McBride have continued getting the type of awesome usage that is the point of this series. Once again, I did not mean to have to lump in this many weeks for one post, but the holiday season got in the way. That means there's a lot to talk about, so I'll just get to it with the regular note that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• When talking about ideal workloads, the conversation pretty much starts with Christian McCaffrey. He just played 100% of the 49ers snaps for the third time this year while also seeing 10 targets for a 22.73% target share that would make a lot of wide receivers blush. Overall on the season he's played 82.78% of the snaps with a 18.62% target share while also getting 74.78% of the running back carries. The combination of receiving and goal line usage in Kyle Shanahan's creative scheme has led to averaging 25.21 PPR points, which is not only the highest among all players but almost 5 points higher than the next RB. The fantasy MVP should have a solid shot of winning the actual NFL award considering his 1,932 yards from scrimmage are 276 more than anyone else and he's tied for the most touchdowns scored at 21. He's just two away from matching Jerry Rice's franchise record (although the GOAT WR did it in just 12 games due to a strike season), and he could get it with a game to spare to lead fantasy managers to the promised land against Washington's pushover defense.
  
  
• Staying in the Bay Area, the splits with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are fascinating. In the 11 games that both have finished, they have identical 81.42% snap rates and 22.52% target shares with Samuel running routes on 89.77% of the dropbacks to Aiyuk's 89.49%. Deebo's unparalleled nose for the end zone gives him a PPG edge of 17.65 to 16.46 in those contests, and he does benefit from 2.67 carries for extra opportunities. Aiyuk is the more refined pure WR who relies a bit more on big plays, as his league-leading 18.5 yards per reception indicates, and his 1,203 receiving yards paces the team. If Samuel gets 166 receiving yards these last two weeks to hit the century mark, these two and George Kittle (currently at 991 yards), could become just the sixth trio in NFL history to all hit 1,000 yards and the first since 2008 Cardinals. That team was led to the Super Bowl by Kurt Warner, whom you may have heard has some similarities with a certain 49ers' QB.
  
  
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 8-12 2023

After the Harden trade was my weekly post and then my schedule didn't allow one in recent weeks, it's time to get back into the swing of things! With a lot to touch on, I'll just get right to things with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Trey McBride wast the last bullet point in the last Gio-ing Deep I wrote, and while I've tried not to repeat players in back to back posts, his recent play definitely calls for it. In the five games since Zach Ertz was placed on IR, the second year TE has averaged 14.82 points while playing 83.13% of the snaps, participating in 82.14% of the routes, and commanding a massive 27.5% target share. That's even with the 5.2 dud when rookie Clayton Tune was an inept fill-in starter against the elite Browns defense. In just the three games that Kyler Murray has played, McBride has very similar 14.47, 87.31%, 85.37%, and 24.04% splits. Ertz asked for and was granted his release yesterday to join a contender, so it is firmly McBride TE1 SZN.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another young TE that's been on the rise since a veteran teammate went down is Dalton Kincaid. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, things actually were already trending up in the last game that Dawson Knox played, with the rookie putting up 15.5 points despite Knox playing 63.38% of the snaps. In the six games from that week on, the 1st-round pick has averaged 14.1 points with a 21.13% target share. That's come while running a route on 79.61% of the dropbacks despite only playing 71.63% of the snaps as he's much more of a big slot receiver than true tight end at this point.
  
  The Bills had switched to much more two "tight end" sets early in the season with Kincaid in a hybrid role before reverting back to their typical three WR sets with Knox out, so it will be interesting to see what they go whenever he returns. A big factor could be the fact that Khalil Shakir, a sleeper I liked in the 2022 draft, has stepped up in the five games without Knox. His snap rate got bumped up to 73.58% during this time with an even higher 75.12% route participation, and he's turned a 12.07% target share into 11.3 points per game.