Friday, November 1, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-8 2024

I hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween! With October officially in the books, we're about halfway through the NFL season already. That means there is a good sample size now for the vast majority of players, and with two weeks to look at since my last post, there are plenty of options to choose from. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • After a ridiculously slow start, the tight end position is starting to come on of late across the league, and veteran Zach Ertz is having an underrated campaign among them. Overall, he's averaging a modest 9.31 points despite a nice role with a 20% target share while running a route on 78.84% of Washington's drop backs despite only being in on 67.42% of the snaps. He's not in there to block much, basically, and over the last three weeks he's been more effective with a little bump in usage to average 13.17 with a 70.79% snap rate, 76.27% route participation, and 22.83% target share.

    Some people were excited about rookie Ben Sinnott after he was drafted 53rd overall as the second TE off the board, but Ertz has has absolutely dominated the receiving role for the Commanders. Sinnott has only played 30.87% of the snaps and run a route on 17.06% of drop backs, which has resulted in a minuscule 0.89% target share. Ironically, he went from not even seeing a single target the first six weeks to scoring a touchdown on his first look...but then he went back 0 targets in Week 8.

  • The first TE taken in this draft was of course Brock Bowers, and he's lived up to the "generational" moniker at the position. Already as a rookie he's second in scoring with a 14.09 average while having a 77.13% snap rate, 75.86% route participation, and massive 24.44% target share. Those numbers are even larger over the last five games, which coincides with the last time that top target Davante Adams (hamstring and trade) and #2 TE Michael Mayer (personal reasons) played. Since Week 4, Bowers' splits are 15 points and 82.67%/82.72%/27.67%...and that's with just one (1) touchdown scored so far. 535 receiving yards usually results in more scores, and if the Raiders offense can get a little more competent to give him more chances, he could challenge for TE1 overall status.
  • One last tight end that needs a shoutout is Cade Otton, who has gone from being "Cardio Cade" who is just always out there running routes to a big-time producer of late. In the first two weeks, he played 91.89% of the snaps and ran a route on 91.94% of drop backs but only earned an 8.16% target share to score 1.5 and -0.4 (seriously) points. However, over the next four weeks he suddenly held a 19.42% target share with similar 90.87% and 83.95% splits to average 9.45.

    Then Week 7 happened, with Mike Evans re-aggravating his hamstring injury in the first half and Chris Godwin tragically dislocating his ankle at the very end of the game. Otton was already having a career game with a 22.22% target share (10) resulting in 8 catches for 100 yards, but then he took it to another level in Week 8 when both stars were completely missing. He drew another 10 targets for a 21.74% share and caught 9 for 81 yards and two touchdowns. 29.1 points obviously isn't going to be the baseline, but Otton is clearly going to get a ton of volume with Godwin lost for the year and Evans out at least until after Tampa's Week 11 bye.

  • A TE can't earn every look, though, so everyone was wondering how the Buccaneers wide receivers would shake out in the wake of the injuries. I wrote previously about liking Jalen McMillan as a prospect and how Godwin was actually a comp for him, so I was aggressive on the waiver wire with him in all of my leagues hoping that he would take that role. The pending free agent was having a monster year with 87.06% of the snaps, 88.41% route participation, and a 26.61% target share to average 19.69 points, and he did it while lining up in the slot 61.21% of the time. You could call it the Cooper Kupp role after new offensive coordinator Liam Coen spent four years with the Rams, including two as assistant WRs coach with Kupp.

    In the first game without Godwin, McMillan did lead the team in routes with 46 (90.20%) while playing 80.82% of the snaps overall and seeing a 15.22% target share to score 9.2...but he did so while only playing in the slot on 32.20% of his snaps. That was an increase from his 22.84% rate coming into the game, but veteran Sterling Shepard was the primary slot receiver with 60% of his snaps coming there after his rate was 33.51% prior. He only drew a 10.76% target share for 4.8 points while playing 61.64% of the snaps and running a route on 72.55% of the drop backs, though. Trey Palmer was the other starting outside receiver as his slot rate from 22.32% beforehand to 27.45% in this game, and 69.86%/76.47%/4.35% splits for 4.9 points was the result. McMillan was in the slot 90.32% of the time in his last two years of college while Palmer played 52.89% of his snaps in the slot as a rookie last year, so these alignments will be something to watch going forward, especially since Shepard picked up a hamstring injury and hasn't practiced this week.
  • Another rookie seeing an increased role is Tyrone Tracy, and it doesn't look like he's giving the starting job back. He was a unique prospect who was a receiver for four years at Iowa and his first year at Purdue before converting to running back in his sixth season, and he had impressive testing numbers at the combine. As a 5th rounder, he was understandably eased in during the first four weeks with just 24.15% of the snaps, a 24.84% route participation, a 4.41% target share, and 16.67% of the RB carries resulting in 2.75 points per game. Meanwhile, Devin Singletary had strong usage with rates of 71.7%, 44.1%, 8.09%, and 77.78% for 11.83 points after joining the Giants in free agency to reunite with his former Bills OC Brian Daboll.

    However, everything changed in Week 5 when Singletary was out with a groin injury. Tracy exploded for 129 rushing yards on 18 carries (81.82% of the RB attempts) while playing 62.5% of the snaps, running a route on 42.5% of the drop backs, and seeing 6.45% of the targets. The next week he was bumped up to an 83.54% snap rate, 68.89% route participation, 16.67% target share, and 85% of the RB carries, and while he was held to only 50 yards on the ground this time (with a TD), that WR background showed up with catching all 6 targets for 57 yards.

    Singletary returned in Week 7 and had 5 carries for a 41.67% split of the RB rushes in the blowout loss, but his 20.69% snap rate, 15% route participation, and 3.7% target share were way lower than Tracy's 67.24%/67.5%/11.11%. I wondered if the veteran was just being eased back in from his injury, but once again in Week 8 it was Tracy's show, even with having to leave early due to the concussion protocol. Tracy scored 23 with 56.94%/32.56%/8.11%/90.91% splits compared to Singletary's 4.3 and 38.89%/34.88%/8.11%/9.09%. Overall, the rookie is averaging 16.48 points in the four games as a starter with a 67.97% snap rate, 52.98% route participation, 10.69% target share, and 80.26% RB carries share, which would be impressive usage over a whole season.
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