Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Unpacking the Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas Swap

Boston gets:
Kyrie Irving$18,868,626$20,099,189$21,329,752

Cleveland gets:
Isaiah Thomas$6,261,395
Jae Crowder$6,796,117$7,305,825$7,815,533
Ante Žižić$1,645,200$1,952,760$2,281,800$3,872,215
Brooklyn's 2018 1st

Just when I had really switched into football mode and thought my updates were done, the NBA news cycle came storming back to life on a random Tuesday afternoon in August. Now that Shams has confirmed the deal is done, let's peel back the different layers of this trade. Starting with the simple stuff, Cleveland goes from paying about $220.3 million between payroll and the Luxury Tax to just over $197 million by my math. This difference of just $4.2 million in salaries makes a huge difference because they are dealing with the repeater penalty and in such high tax brackets, so it's no chump change they're saving. With the contracts of Edy Tavares and Kay Felder not fully guaranteed, the final number could end up being $184.8 million once rosters are cut down to 15.

In terms of future value, Irving is only 25 years old and has another year left on his contract before he can opt out in the summer of 2019, which left him without a ton of leverage when this trade request saga started since he's not an immediate flight risk. Comparatively, Thomas is expecting a max contract after this season when he'll be 29, and that is a risky proposition for teams given how small guards tend to age. Crowder, who just turned 27 last month, is on one of the best contracts in the league with under $22 million owed over three years, though, and Zizic is just about to start his rookie contract at only 20 years old after being the 23rd pick in last year's draft. The true value of this trade of course hinges on the Nets pick, and I've stated a couple of times that Boston shouldn't overvalue it since Brooklyn is trending upward. They still have the Lakers/Kings premium 1st and picks coming from the Clippers and Grizzlies anyway, and you never know how or when prospects will develop with their Finals caliber team.