Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Unpacking the Kyrie Irving and Isaiah Thomas Swap

Boston gets:
Kyrie Irving$18,868,626$20,099,189$21,329,752

Cleveland gets:
Isaiah Thomas$6,261,395
Jae Crowder$6,796,117$7,305,825$7,815,533
Ante Žižić$1,645,200$1,952,760$2,281,800$3,872,215
Brooklyn's 2018 1st

Just when I had really switched into football mode and thought my updates were done, the NBA news cycle came storming back to life on a random Tuesday afternoon in August. Now that Shams has confirmed the deal is done, let's peel back the different layers of this trade. Starting with the simple stuff, Cleveland goes from paying about $220.3 million between payroll and the Luxury Tax to just over $197 million by my math. This difference of just $4.2 million in salaries makes a huge difference because they are dealing with the repeater penalty and in such high tax brackets, so it's no chump change they're saving. With the contracts of Edy Tavares and Kay Felder not fully guaranteed, the final number could end up being $184.8 million once rosters are cut down to 15.

In terms of future value, Irving is only 25 years old and has another year left on his contract before he can opt out in the summer of 2019, which left him without a ton of leverage when this trade request saga started since he's not an immediate flight risk. Comparatively, Thomas is expecting a max contract after this season when he'll be 29, and that is a risky proposition for teams given how small guards tend to age. Crowder, who just turned 27 last month, is on one of the best contracts in the league with under $22 million owed over three years, though, and Zizic is just about to start his rookie contract at only 20 years old after being the 23rd pick in last year's draft. The true value of this trade of course hinges on the Nets pick, and I've stated a couple of times that Boston shouldn't overvalue it since Brooklyn is trending upward. They still have the Lakers/Kings premium 1st and picks coming from the Clippers and Grizzlies anyway, and you never know how or when prospects will develop with their Finals caliber team.


Making it out of the East is a realistic goal for both of these clubs, and that's what makes this trade such a surprise after they battled in the Eastern Conference Finals mere months ago. The Cavaliers sending Irving to Boston was something that was kind of joked about on Twitter since the Celtics are always the team that can offer the best package of assets and haD a comparable point guard to send back. However, I don't think many people actually thought it would happen given their similar standing atop the conference, especially with Boston's emotional attachment to "The Little Guy" and the moments they shared this season. Even if it does help their biggest threat to return to the Finals, it makes sense for Cleveland to toe the line between staying in contention now while gathering assets for the future, particularly with LeBron James' future up in the air next summer. Thomas provides similar offensive production at point guard while Crowder is a much needed wing with defensive versatility, something that they sorely lack when facing the Warriors. Then if James does depart his home state once again, they can let Thomas also walk, trade Kevin Love before he can leave the following summer, and reset around the Nets pick and a promising young center in Zizic.

Still, it feels like trading an All-NBA caliber talent who is at the beginning of his prime might have shifted the balance of power in the East. Irving's uncanny shot-making and occasional defensive highlight when trying gave the Cavs a higher ceiling, even if they didn't always perform at that level. Now he'll join Gordon Hayward and Al Horford to form a trio of All-Stars in their prime to contend now while Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the #3 picks in the last two drafts, develop for a sustained run under top young coach Brad Stevens. They also won't face the decision of whether or not to pay Thomas next summer at the same time that reserve guard Marcus Smart hits restricted free agency, so they won't face any major salary hurdles until the following year when Irving and Horford could both opt out. They paid a steep price today, but it's hard to argue against the logic of this move for their chances both now and into the future.

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