Monday, July 24, 2017

Sifting through Kyrie and Melo Trade Ideas

When Brian Windhorst broke the story that Kyrie Irving wants to be traded, it was like the shot heard round the world with all sorts of reactions. Does he have that much of an ego that he wants to leave a team that's gone to three straight Finals and won a title just because he's tired of living in LeBron James' shadow? What leverage does he really have to force a trade since he can't opt for free agency until the summer of 2019? If he wants to be the franchise player again, couldn't he just wait it out until next season with all of the rumblings that James is going to move to LA? That last part might be an underrated factor in his thinking since he saw first hand how bad the roster can be when left in shambles after the King's departure: Irving was just 64-117 in games he played while the team was 78-152 overall his first three seasons. He doesn't want to be the last one left at the party, and after the underrated David Griffin wasn't re-signed (because Dan Gilbert never gives GMs second contracts), the dysfunction of the team led to this request that was even more shocking than his flat Earth take.


The Trade Machine is everyone's favorite toy, so I came up with my own quick 3-team deal like so many on Twitter did, not really expecting a perennial Finals contender to actually break up like this. However, more of these details coming out over the weekend kept adding fuel added to the fire, Zach Lowe indicated that Irving's relationship with the team is almost frayed beyond repair, and Joe Vardon's story on Derrick Rose choosing Cleveland had some damning evidence about the team's intentions. The two sides apparently came to a deal after "discussing how the team will return to the Finals without Kyrie Irving" and with Rose "looking at a potential starting spot in the same lineup with LeBron James, now that Irving has asked for a trade and James is eager to see him off." Yikes, I guess that means we should think of more trade ideas! Even if I think he's a bit overrated and unlikely to be a true best player on a title contender as something of a one-dimensional player, that singular outstanding talent of shot-making is likely enticing to a lot of teams out there.

Lowe's report mentioned that the Cavs' highest priority right now is a blue-chip young player, with veterans included to help the team in its present championship quest and draft picks always a requirement for a star (unless you're Kevin Pritchard and the Pacers evidently). That makes things a little more difficult, but now that we're surprisingly already close to August, draft picks signed at the beginning of this month will soon be eligible for trades to help grease wheels. Since my first idea above lacks a young prospect and was too favorable for the Knicks in hindsight, let's revisit that one first.

Scenario #1
Cleveland gets:
Carmelo Anthony$26,243,760$27,928,140
Eric Bledsoe$14,500,000$15,000,000
Dragan Bender$4,468,800$4,661,280$5,896,519
Knicks 2018 (unprotected) and 2020 (top-3 protected) 1st round picks
Heat 2021 unprotected 1st round pick (via Phoenix)
Suns 2018 2nd round pick

New York gets:
Kyrie Irving$18,868,626$20,099,189$21,329,752
Iman Shumpert$10,337,079$11,011,234
Channing Frye$7,420,912

Phoenix gets:
Kevin Love$22,642,350$24,119,025$25,595,700
Frank Ntilikina$3,501,120$4,155,720$4,855,800$6,176,578

For Cleveland, it's basically the same logic as my tweet but with some more sweeteners. Although Bender might be somewhat of a stretch as the blue-chipper after a disappointing rookie season, it can be partly explained by injuries and him being the youngest player in the league, and the #4 pick in last year's still has an exciting skill set as a perimeter big that could eventually space the floor. Anthony's friendship with LeBron is well-chronicled, and with Bledsoe also becoming tight with him through their shared agent, Rich Paul aka LBJ's BFF, this could have an important impact on James' future with the team. The former could be an efficient secondary scorer while the latter serves in something of a 3-and-D complementary role that could play with fellow Calipari point guard Rose, whom I view as a sixth man. The bevy of picks can serve as a safeguard in case he does leave while also providing much-needed trade chips (they already owe a protected 2019 1st to Atlanta), and the Miami pick is especially tantalizing as the core that team is now locked into ages. Lastly, this proposed trade would save Gilbert over $69 million in salary and Luxury Tax payments due to the exponential nature of the Repeater penalty they now face.

For New York, it would get rid of the headache around Anthony's situation and provide a 25 year old star point guard to pair with Kristaps Porzingis, who is only about to turn 22. They'd be getting back into the business of being out multiple future picks, but in this case it would actually be worth it with Irving under contract for at least two seasons. He could shine in the bright lights near his home of New Jersey, and the contracts they have to take on aren't too onerous to hurt them going forward, especially if Shumpert opts out next summer to try his hand in the open market. Him and Frye, who both started their careers with the Knicks, can still be useful players in the right roles, and the fact that they're getting the best player in the trade makes the inclusion of them and Ntilikina more bearable. It's not ideal that the player they just took 8th overall earlier this summer would be shipped off, but by most accounts, he was a pick by Phil Jackson for the triangle offense, neither of which are a part of the team anymore. With all that being said, this large trade package should have its limits, though, and that be in the form of some kind of a protection on the latter 1st since that is the season after Irving could leave.

For Phoenix, it's well known that they've been after a star, and they've had past interest in Love before pursuing LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, and Paul Millsap in free agency the last few years. At nearly 29, Love may be older than the rest of their core, but Ntilikina, Tyler Ulis, Devin Booker, Josh Jackson, Marquese Chriss, and Alan Williams can learn from him these next couple of seasons as he provides a stabilizing force in the offense and locker room. Having a great shooter like him at one of the big man spots provides room for all everyone else to get better looks, and perhaps with Bledsoe out of the picture, even Brandon Knight could rebuild his value since his contract would be hard to move currently. Giving up on Bender so soon along with a couple of picks isn't anything to scoff at, but with Chriss already in the fold to operate in a similar role, the upside of Ntilikina thrown in, and a player of Love's caliber finally being added, I think they'd make a move like this.

Cleveland gets:
Eric Bledsoe$14,500,000$15,000,000
Jared Dudley$10,000,000$9,530,000
Josh Jackson$5,090,040$6,041,520$7,059,480$8,930,242
Better of Suns (top-5 protected) and Heat (top-7 protected) 2018 1st round pick

Phoenix gets:
Kyrie Irving$18,868,626$20,099,189$21,329,752
Iman Shumpert$10,337,079$11,011,234
Channing Frye$7,420,912

Josh Jackson always gets (wrongly) compared to Andrew Wiggins, and now he could also be traded before his rookie season in a sort of reverse Wiggins for Love trade. This one is more straightforward with no 'Melo/Love swap, "only" around $38 million saved in salary and the Tax,  and this year's #4 pick serving as the blue-chipper rather than last year's #4 pick. I had something else in mind that was more focused on the Miami picks than Jackson, but I'm cheating a bit based on Lowe's report about what Cleveland is looking for and basically tweaking his proposal. Besides the Bledsoe component described above, this gives them the young, versatile wing that they need along with a core glue guy in Dudley. Phoenix would be paying a bigger price than scenario #1 but also getting a better player who fits the team's timeline better. A back court Irving and Booker wouldn't get any stops, but they would get buckets. It's also worth noting that even if the Suns aren't on Irving's preferred list of the Spurs, Knicks, Heat, or Timberwolves, it doesn't matter since he doesn't have a no-trade clause like James or Anthony, and with two years on his contract for new teams to try to sell him on staying, his lack of leverage hurts his cause.

Cleveland gets:
Carmelo Anthony$26,243,760$27,928,140
Donovan Mitchell$2,621,280$3,111,480$3,635,760$5,195,501
Rodney Hood$2,386,864
Jazz unprotected 2018 1st round pick

Utah gets:
Kyrie Irving$18,868,626$20,099,189$21,329,752

New York gets:
Ricky Rubio$14,250,000$14,950,000
Iman Shumpert$10,337,079$11,011,234
Channing Frye$7,420,912
Wizards 2020 2nd round pick (via Utah)

For Cleveland, you never want to put too much stock into Summer League, but Mitchell looked like he shouldn't have fallen to #13 in June. Between him, the flashes that Hood has provided the last two seasons, and the 1st, that's a good amount of young talent coming their way along with Anthony. This scenario would require James to play point guard or one of their bigs to come off the bench, but I tried to get creative with what they could try and get back, meaning some pieces would have to shuffle around. Rose, Mitchell, Jose Calderon, and Kay Felder can combine for enough minutes as the "point guard" to ease LeBron's load, and Love can spend a lot of his time at center against second units. Dropping down a couple of Tax tiers also saves them over $29 million in total.
For Utah, a quick flip of Rubio after acquiring him failed to convince Gordon Hayward to stay might be necessary due to the lack of scoring they're looking at now. Unless they feel confident that Mitchell, Hood, or someone like Dante Exum or Alec Burks could be relied on as consistent threats on the perimeter, cashing in their chips on a chance at a player like Irving might be worth it. Their defense around him can hide his flaws, and although it would be an adjustment, Quinn Snyder's offensive style could help Irving become a better distributor.

For New York, it's like scenario #1, but Rubio wouldn't cost two 1st round picks and Ntilikina. Given the state of their team, I think this is a fair value for the disgruntled Anthony, and Rubio can unlock his star potential in MSG under Jeff Hornacek with some shooters around him. Adding in the 2nd would be a nice throw-in for still taking on the Shump and Frye contracts since they don't own any of their own 2nds the next four years and just have a couple less favorable picks coming their way over that span. Of course, these scenarios assume that Cleveland is still one of two teams that Anthony is willing to waive his no-trade clause for, but in case that has changed, I wanted to throw out a couple more ideas that are focused on him.

The challenge of getting Melo to Houston if that's his desired destination is that New York doesn't want to take back the money owed Ryan Anderson (over $61 million across three years) that is required to make the trade work. The Rockets are understandably hesitant to send out Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza instead even though their more favorable contracts would just about match salaries already. Thus, a third team is needed, and although Portland was initially against the idea of joining the talks unless they got Anthony, they are apparently relenting on the idea.

Scenario #4
New York gets:
Meyers Leonard$9,904,495$10,595,506$11,286,515
Ed Davis$6,352,531
Noah Vonleh$3,505,233
Shabazz Napier$2,361,360
Tim Quarterman$1,312,611
Rockets 2020 top-3 protected 1st round pick
Better of Lakers and Timberwolves 2019 2nd round pick (via Portland)
Least favorable of Hornets, Grizzlies, and Heat 2018 2nd round pick (via Houston)

Houston gets:
Carmelo Anthony$26,243,760$27,928,140

Portland gets:
Ryan Anderson$19,578,455$20,421,546$21,264,635
Shawn Long$1,312,611$1,544,951
Rockets 2022 top-3 protected 1st round pick

For New York, I almost gave them Evan Turner to be a useful point forward, but I would guess that they don't want his contract that is equally as bad as Anderson's. That limits the actual on-court value they can get back, but in addition to the picks, this would leave them with around $5.5 million in cap space this year and only Leonard's bad money going forward. They would have a crowded front court, but Davis and Vonleh are decent enough to be flipped in future deals, especially since they're expiring contracts (with Vonleh limited to restricted free agency at that). Napier isn't great, but he also would be limited to restricted free agency and could provide some experience at point guard compared to Ntilikina and Ron Baker.

For Houston, I'm not entirely sure that they're okay being out three future 1st round picks total after the Chris Paul trade, but they are obsessed with adding that all-important third star. Although going into the Luxury Tax for this addition isn't as much of a no-brainer now that Leslie Alexander is shockingly putting the team up for sale after everyone just recently made a big deal about his commitment to winning following the James Harden extension, I think Darryl Morey has the autonomy to get a deal done.

For Portland, turning their various pieces into a shooter like Ryan Anderson is a big upgrade on the court, and they would be turning a future 2nd into a 1st as a reward for taking on the extra $20 million or so he's owed compared to Leonard. This would actually trim a couple million off of this year's salary, which would save the team around $10.8 million in total once you factor in their steep Tax bill. They'd probably prefer to move the contracts of Turner or Allen Crabbe instead, but this could be worth their while.

Scenario #5
New York gets:
Mirza Teletovic$10,500,000$10,500,000
Matthew Dellavedova$9,607,500$9,607,500$9,607,500
Spencer Hawes$6,021,175
Rockets 2020 and 2022 top-3 protected 1st round picks
Least favorable of Hornets, Grizzlies, and Heat 2018 2nd round pick (via Houston)

Houston gets:
Carmelo Anthony$26,243,760$27,928,140

Milwaukee gets:
Ryan Anderson$19,578,455$20,421,546$21,264,635
Shawn Long$1,312,611$1,544,951
Tim Quarterman$1,312,611

For New York, getting two future 1st round picks is probably as good as they could hope for, even if it does eat into some of their flexibility going forward. Dellavedova would provide the established point guard that they need as Ntilikina develops, and Teletovic is a more valuable bench player than he showed last season.

For Houston, it's the same package as scenario #4, and although it's a high price to pay, swapping Anderson for Melo certainly raises their ceiling.

For Milwaukee, Dellavedova was losing his role to Malcolm Brogdon and Point Giannis, so getting out of his money while also upgrading from Teletovic to Anderson as a helpful stretch-four is a good deal. This would also ensure that they steer clear of the Tax line that they've been navigating around this year, and after the money is a wash next season, the difference between the last year of Anderson and Delly isn't crippling. They wouldn't be sacrificing any of their core while improving the team in the short-term.

All salary data provided by BasketballInsiders.com

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