Saturday, November 16, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 9-10 2024

Now that we're over halfway through the NFL regular season, we're really seeing roles emerge. Some have been more recent and/or due to a teammate's injury, and looking at these splits is why I write these posts. As usual, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The most obvious case of a new role is Chase Brown becoming a bell cow running back without Zack Moss, as showcased on TNF to start Week 10. I already wrote about the former starting to take over after Week 4, and from Weeks 4 through 8, Brown averaged 14.54 points while playing 47.16% of the snaps, running a route on 35.75% of the drop backs, earning a 9.87% target share, and seeing 60.95% of the RB carries compared to 8.28 points for Moss with 55.52%/48.04%/10.53%/39.05% rates. Then Moss unfortunately sustained a neck injury that's expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, and Brown has put up 26.7 and 22.4 points while seeing 100% of the RB carries.

    The Bengals made a minor trade for Khalil Herbert at the deadline, but he fumbled what would've been his only carry in his debut. And while he's a shifty back, Herbert's role with the Bears was similar to Brown's with a lack of a receiving role holding him back. At least, that was how Brown was being used because these these past two games he's set new season-highs in route participation (63.41% and then 75%) and target share (13.51% and then an eye-catching 20.37%). The more experienced Moss was getting those opportunities because he's more reliable in pass protection, but now that the second-year 'back is being trusted there, the sky is the limit.

  • Travis Kelce is another player who has taken off since Week 4, which is when Rashee Rice suffered a brutal knee injury on friendly fire during an interception return after just four plays. In the first three games, the star tight end only averaged 5 points with a 13.95% target share despite an 84.97% snap rate and 85.98% route participation. Starting with the game that Rice was injured in, Kelce's splits are now 17.50 points, a massive 31.37%, 81.32%, and 90.08% over the last six contests. What's really interesting is that his three best games have come in the past three weeks after the trade for DeAndre Hopkins that would in theory provide more target competition. Instead, Kelce has seen 12, 16, and 12 targets for 25, 22, and 20.4 points over that span. Rice was only lining up on the outside on 55.41% of his snaps while Hopkins has been out there 69.49% of the time, so it seems that the interior targets that Rice thrived on will still be funneled to Kelce. His 1.57 yards per route run for the season overall is still a career-low (he's only been under 2.00 twice), but this kind of volume makes up for that.

  • One last player who appears poised to take advantage of an injury is Jauan Jennings. If you remember in Week 3, he went nuclear for 11 catches, 175 yards, and 3 touchdowns to total 46.5 points and a 40% target share when Deebo Samuel was out. Now in his first game since Brandon Aiyuk's torn ACL, Jennings earned a 32.35% target share for 16.3 points while playing 90.63% of the snaps and running a route on 95.24% of the drop backs.

    Overall in the seven games that Jennings has played, he's earned a 21.96% target share to average 14.24 points even with just a 63.33% snap rate and 71.54% route participation. I'd expect his Week 10 playing time to be the new normal going forward without Aiyuk, and if Jennings can maintain some efficiency that's anywhere close to his astounding 2.66 yards per route run, he could really be a waiver wire hero.

  • On the other side of injury spectrum for the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey finally made his season debut last week after dealing with Achilles tendinitis and immediately stepped into his usual role. He showed some rust on the ground with just 39 yards on his 13 rushes, but that accounted for 86.67% of the RB carries on the day. That coincides with playing 87.50% of the snaps, and his elite 78.57% route participation resulted in a 20.59% target share that helped produce 16.7 points despite the slow rushing day and no touchdowns. They'd probably like to keep Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo involved in the rushing attack to lessen McCaffrey's load, but that receiving usage has always been where he separates himself from practically all other RBs.
  • Kyren Williams may not have consistent high-usage in the passing game, but he is one of the only other 'backs with the same kind of workhorse role as McCaffrey. The Rams star leads the position with an 88.83% snap rate on the season, and that number has been over 90% in each of the last three games with a ridiculous peak of 98.70% in Week 9.

    Somewhat surprisingly, he only has a 9.87% target share despite running a route on 67.44% of drop backs. That's making him a little bit touchdown dependent despite dominating playing time as seen by just 10.5 and 11.2 points these past two weeks after averaging 19.9 points in the first seven games when he found the end zone at least once every time. Seeing 84.21% of the RB carries is definitely a strong starting point each week, though, and with the team on a roll prior to the stumble on MNF, Williams should have favorable game scripts to produce points.

  • I'll wrap things up with a player who's been on a hot streak not due to injury but ever since a teammate's been traded away: Calvin Ridley. He was already seeing pretty good usage the first six games with a 76.58% snap rate, 83.64% route participation, and 21.05% target share but was only producing a frustrating 7.53 points per game. However, in the three games since Hopkins was traded the volume has been through the roof with much better results to the tune of 20.10 points with 87.98%/92.92%/36.36% rates.

    And that even held up once Will Levis returned under center after Mason Rudolph started the first two of those games. One of Ridley's touchdowns this past week did come in garbage time, but that's going to happen sometimes when there's an average of nearly 11 targets per game. Tennessee has a pretty favorable schedule for wide receivers down the stretch, so any fantasy teams that survived that rough start could be dangerous if they make the playoffs.
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