Saturday, December 7, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 11-13 2024

It's crunch time in the fantasy regular season, and the NFL schedule this year made things a little awkward. Perhaps due to Thanksgiving being so late in November, there were six teams on bye in Week 12, none in Week 13, and then six more now in Week 14 with managers making one last push for a playoff spot. Sometimes you have to be Gio-ing Deep into depth charts.

As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • Partly due to the holiday I haven't had a chance to write recently, and what a run it's been for fringe wide receivers with hyphenated names in that span! Since joining the Saints in Week 9, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has only played 58.4% of the snaps, run a route on 72.31% of the drop backs, and earned a 9.91% target share (11 total)...yet he's scored FOUR touchdowns in five games to average 13.93 points. And this comes after only catching three TDs in 33 games over the past two years on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him and zero in 6 games with Josh Allen and the Bills this year before being released.

    Even if you remove the first game due to MVS still adjusting to his new team, he's only been playing 66.12% of the snaps with a 79.17% route participation and 12.05% target share, so it's hard to believe that he'll keep this scoring up. Finding the end zone four times in his last 10 targets has been impressive, though.

  • Similarly, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored eight times in his last eight games, even dating back to before the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I talked about how Calvin Ridley has taken off since then in my last post, and now in six games as a starter, NWI has averaged 14.6 points with a 93.83% snap rate, 95.09% route participation, and 17.98% target share. That kind of usage is a little easier to trust, even if TD regression is bound to hit. Will Levis has been playing better in the four games since coming back from his shoulder injury, averaging 16.75 points, and with a favorable schedule against the Jaguars twice, Colts, and Bengals, this passing game could determine some fantasy titles.

  • Another passing attack that's been on the rise: the Browns with Jameis Winston, thanks in part to huge volume. They lead the league in drop backs per game with 45.92, and in Winston's five starts that number is 48.2 to help him average 21.34 points. And with the Amari Cooper trade also happening right before this stretch, the other pass catchers are absolutely thriving.

    Jerry Jeudy is averaging 21.68 points, which would be WR2 overall on the season, with 91.53%/96.28%/22.69% rates over these five weeks. That's of course inflated by his insane 235 yard #RevengeGame on MNF, the most ever for a player against his former team, but the fact that it came against the Broncos' previously elite defense makes it even more impressive. It's a bit crazy to think that it came on 13 looks that "only" made for a 22.81% target share in this pass happy offense.
    The leading target was actually David Njoku with 17, and in the slightly larger sample of six games without Cooper, the tight end is averaging 16.3 points with a 86.22% snap rate, a route on 84.95% of the drop backs, and a huge 22.35% target share despite his position. It'll be interesting to see how Cedric Tillman will be re-integrated after he averaged 15.4 points, 84.62% of the snaps, 87.29% of the routes, and 21.26% of the targets in the first four games without Cooper (the first being mostly without Winston) before unfortunately suffering a concussion that's going to hold him out for a second straight game. And you can't forget Elijah Moore in the slot as he is up to 13.04 points with 72.95%/77.27%/22.22% rates in the five Winston starts. If all four eventually are out there together healthy, will we simply see all of them above the 20% target share mark with little else for the backups or running backs?

  • One more team that's seen a bump in passing volume is Kansas City since the aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins trade ahead of Week 8. Patrick Mahomes was only averaging 13.83 points in the first seven games in part due to only averaging 36.17 drop backs, but those are up to 20.08 and 46 over the past six games. I think it's a combination of adding a new weapon, the defense not playing as well since starting corner Jaylen Watson got hurt right before this stretch, and natural regression to the mean for a passer of Mahomes' caliber.

    To Hopkins' credit, he's averaging 12.75 points since arriving despite oddly being a part-time player with a 51.65% snap rate and 55.43% route participation contributing to a 15.72% target share. You could take away the first game when he didn't know the playbook yet and bump his numbers up to 14.32, 55.68%, 59.40%, and 17.01%, but it's still a bit puzzling that he's not getting more run. The Chiefs have been a bit notorious for their WR rotations in recent years, but you'd think it would be a different story for a proven commodity like Hopkins.

  • Not every change of situation results in positive changes, of course, and things haven't been too exciting for Mike Williams since arriving in Pittsburgh. He caught the winning TD late in his first appearance...and that's been his only target in four games. They've only put him in on 23.97% of the snaps and 30.2% of the drop backs over this span, and that single target makes for a miniscule 0.83% target share.

  • Switching over to RBs, I have to talk about the Bucky Irving takeover. The Buccaneers lost four straight heading into their bye week, and apparently the fix coming out of it was to turn to their 4th round rookie for back to back wins (facing the Giants and Panthers also helped). Over those first 10 games he averaged 11.6 points while playing 41.24% of the snaps, running a route on 33.67% of the drop backs, earning an 8.26% target share, and getting the call for 47.52% of the RB carries, all of which were respectable for a young, small-ish back.

    Over the past two, though? 27.3, 53.1%, 45.07%, 14.06%, and 57.81% all while maintaining his impressive efficiency. Positive game scripts have contributed in this small sample size, but that's the thing: Tampa Bay should be pretty strong favorites against the Raiders, Cowboys, and Panthers again over the next four weeks. The Chargers will be the toughest matchup, but that game at least has some shootout potential. The Winter Soldier (I had to) could be a real league winner.
  • Finally, the current stretch that Jonathan Taylor is on has been fascinating. He's the only Colts RB to receive a carry in each of the last FOUR weeks, and he's seen a 100% share two other times this season, as well. He's only averaged 10.5 points over these past four games despite the backfield dominance, though, and that's in part due to to only a 6.25% target share (8.65% for the season overall).

    Taylor is out there running routes on a solid 65.87% of the drop backs during this stretch, so it's likely due to the fact that running quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson don't tend to check the ball down much. They did connect for a score last week (Taylor's first time finding the end zone since Week 8), but it was his only target. With Richardson also stealing some goal line work, Taylor really needs to run efficiently to make up for these value touches. The good news is that the overall workload of an 81.76% snap rate, 61.41% route participation, and 94.42% RB carry share should give him plenty of opportunities.
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