Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 14-15 2024

As we near the end of the NFL season, injuries and benchings are happening across the league with some interesting fallout for surrounding players. There are also still some developments in the outcome of the many trades that happened this year, so that's where I come in.

Like I always say, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The Jaguars passing attack has seen a lot of change in the second half of the season between Evan Engram missing time with hamstring and labrum injuries, Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone in Week 8, Gabe Davis suffering a torn meniscus in Week 11, and Trevor Lawrence missing time with an injury to his shoulder injury and then a concussion. Just about the only constant has been star rookie Brian Thomas, and even he was affected by a chest injury, although it didn't cost him any games.
  
  While I was excited about him in my pre-season rookie wide receiver rankings, I wasn't high on him enough because he more than looks the part of an alpha WR. Overall on the season he is averaging 15.33 points while playing 77.47% of Jacksonville's snaps, running a route on 83.76% of the drop backs, and earning a 22.76% target share, and he's really come on of late. It may be due to fellow perimeter threat Davis going down, getting past the chest injury in Week 8 that immediately saw him with three straight target shares below 15%, or just backup quarterback Mac Jones locking onto him. In any case, Thomas is averaging 20.35 with 86.97%/93.17%/30.07% splits from Week 11 on, and he's poised to finish strong in the fantasy semifinals and championship against the Raiders and Titans, respectively.
  

  And he can do this! pic.twitter.com/G86SfmmggF

  — Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 18, 2024

  Another young player who has stepped up for them is second year tight end Brenton Strange. Last year's 2nd round pick basically assumes Engram's role whenever the veteran is out, and he's looked solid. Between Weeks 2-5 and now 15, Strange is averaging 10.86 points with a 75.83% snap rate, 70.67% route participation, and 16.67% target share in his five games as the primary TE.
  
  
• Another group that's been cursed (perhaps by a certain video game) is the 49ers running back room. After presumed backup Elijah Mitchell was placed on IR in the preseason, Christian McCaffrey missed the first eight games before getting placed back on IR after Week 13 along with surprise star fill in, Jordan Mason. Now rookie Isaac Guerendo is going to miss this week, as well, but I still wanted to make note of how well he's done and how valuable this role is.
  
  Looking at Week 8 when Mason was limited to just 11 snaps due to injury and now these past two games as the actual starter, the 4th rounder is averaging 19.17 points in three chances as the featured 'back. Guerendo played 64.48% of the snaps, ran a route on 60.2% of the drop backs, saw a 12.2% target share, and was given 71.43% of the RB carries in that span. Although those aren't quite the workhorse numbers I've written about for McCaffrey and Mason this year, they are plenty strong enough, and it makes whoever steps into the job intriguing. Journeyman Patrick Taylor is expected to get the first crack at it on Sunday, but I will be keeping an eye out on Israel Abanikanda after San Francisco claimed him off waivers in the wake of the recent injuries. A 5th round pick last year, he was already buried behind Breece Hall before annoyingly receiving even more competition this year with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. However, Ananikanda was an exciting prospect coming out of Pitt after running for 1,431 yards and 20 touchdowns in just 11 games and then running a 4.44 at his pro day at 217 pounds for a speed score of 111.68, so he could be a sleeper for the job.
  
  
• An RB who has stepped up without needing an injury is Rico Dowdle. After he missed Week 8 due to illness, the Cowboys decided they've seen enough out of retreads Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, and Dowdle has done pretty well in the featured role. Over these past 7 games, he's turned a 64.63% snap rate, 52.28% route participation, 8.53% target share, and 78.67% RB carry share into 13.97 points per game, and that's even with Dak Prescott getting injured in the very first game. Missing the starting QB has probably contributed to leaning on Dowdle more, but it's also notable that he's been able to do this without the help of a fully weaponized passing game.
  
  
• Davante Adams exploded in the 4th quarter last week to finish with 42.8 points after 25.8 the previous game, and this has been a long-time coming in a sense. Although he was only averaging 12.9 points with the Jets before those two games, he was seeing a massive 29.59% target share. Now his total numbers since his midseason trade read as 18.26 points per game while playing 91.68% of the snaps, running a route on 96.61% of the drop backs, and receiving a 30.8% target share.
  

  Davante Adams had 135 Rec yds in the final 4 minutes of regulation, the most by any player in a game this century, per ESPN Research. #Jets

  — Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) December 15, 2024

  I had been meaning to feature New York ever since making note of Garrett Wilson's usage in Week 9, but I didn't end up writing a post that week before others stood out in the following slate. They really lean into their star receivers, though, with Wilson having comparable rates to Adams with 96.67%/98.53%/27.65%, even if it's resulted in "only" a 15.27 point average. Even Allen Lazard is heavily featured (when healthy) in the lineup to the tune of 11.56 points with 85.17% and 86.18% snap and route rates, albeit with only a 15.43% target share due to the competition.
  
  
• I mentioned how disappointing the WR that the Jets traded away, Mike Williams, has been in my last post, and two are acquisitions that haven't worked out are Diontae Johnson and Amari Cooper. The Ravens ended up just releasing the former on Friday, so he ended up only playing a total of 39 snaps with just a single catch out of 5 targets on 19 routes for them.
  
  Cooper hasn't come close to that level of not producing, but he's certainly been underwhelming in Buffalo. It seemed like he may be turning a corner in Week 14 with 15.5 points thanks to a 37.84% target share despite only a 53.33% snap rate and 63.41% route participation, but then he followed it up with ZERO targets while having similar rates of 45.71% and 62.16%...In a game that the Bills scored 48 points. Missing two weeks with a wrist injury certainly didn't help Cooper adjust to his new team, but overall he's only averaging 7.52 points since the trade with 47.19%/56.74%/14.29% splits.