Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 8-12 2023

After the Harden trade was my weekly post and then my schedule didn't allow one in recent weeks, it's time to get back into the swing of things! With a lot to touch on, I'll just get right to things with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Trey McBride wast the last bullet point in the last Gio-ing Deep I wrote, and while I've tried not to repeat players in back to back posts, his recent play definitely calls for it. In the five games since Zach Ertz was placed on IR, the second year TE has averaged 14.82 points while playing 83.13% of the snaps, participating in 82.14% of the routes, and commanding a massive 27.5% target share. That's even with the 5.2 dud when rookie Clayton Tune was an inept fill-in starter against the elite Browns defense. In just the three games that Kyler Murray has played, McBride has very similar 14.47, 87.31%, 85.37%, and 24.04% splits. Ertz asked for and was granted his release yesterday to join a contender, so it is firmly McBride TE1 SZN.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another young TE that's been on the rise since a veteran teammate went down is Dalton Kincaid. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, things actually were already trending up in the last game that Dawson Knox played, with the rookie putting up 15.5 points despite Knox playing 63.38% of the snaps. In the six games from that week on, the 1st-round pick has averaged 14.1 points with a 21.13% target share. That's come while running a route on 79.61% of the dropbacks despite only playing 71.63% of the snaps as he's much more of a big slot receiver than true tight end at this point.
  
  The Bills had switched to much more two "tight end" sets early in the season with Kincaid in a hybrid role before reverting back to their typical three WR sets with Knox out, so it will be interesting to see what they go whenever he returns. A big factor could be the fact that Khalil Shakir, a sleeper I liked in the 2022 draft, has stepped up in the five games without Knox. His snap rate got bumped up to 73.58% during this time with an even higher 75.12% route participation, and he's turned a 12.07% target share into 11.3 points per game.
  
  
• One last young TE who has a notable role is Cade Otton, who played 100% of the snaps last week. It's the second time this season that he's played every down, and overall he's played 97.07% of the Buccaneers' snaps. He's "only" run a route on 86.37% of the routes in comparison and earned a 13.59% target share for 8.25 points per game. Aside from a 23 point outburst against the Texans, though, he's scored between 8.5 and 10.3 in six games and between 2.5 and 3.9 in the other four. Being out there for so many plays could lead to more opportunity if anyone else in this relatively condensed target tree misses time, which could happen this week with Chris Godwin questionable.
  
  I've been thinking about writing about the man who could be filling in for Godwin, Trey Palmer, for a while, but he's just been an intriguing rookie more than actual producer. Instead, I'm finally spotlighting my guy Rachaad White as a workhorse running back. Overall on the season, he's played 78.35% of the snaps, gotten 72.9% of the RB carries, and seen a 12.5% target share for 14.85 points. Those are strong numbers, but they're even better when you consider his slow start.
  
  In the first five games, he was at 77.32% of the snaps, 67.31% of the RB carries, and a 10.90% target share for 10.60 points. Over the last six weeks? 79.16%, 78.18%, and a 13.68% target share for 18.38 points. White's work through the air was always what appealed to me about him, and it has been particularly strong during this stretch with 9.17 yards per target as he's caught 27 of 29 looks (and 43 of 46 on the year). That kind of dual threat ability can help overcome any tough matchup on the ground.
  
  
• Another young receiving RB that's long had my interest is Tyjae Spears. Despite being stuck behind Derrick Henry, the rookie has played 50.84% of the snaps and earned a 13.03% target share to go with 22.12% of the RB carries. Those numbers have held pretty steady across both Ryan Tannehill's six starts and Will Levis' five as Spears is clearly their go-to option in obvious passing situations. He's coming off of his worst game of the year with 1.7 points (I wanted to give him a shout after Week 10's 10 points in 60.32% of the snaps) since the Titans were able to take care of the league-worst Panthers at home, but with this team likely to trail a lot, there's potential here. That especially goes for next season since Henry is a pending free agent, and I really liked the 3rd-round pick coming out of Tulane. Spears was my RB5 in this class after Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Charbonnet, and De'Von Achane due to averaging a strong 1.96 total yards per team play and accounting for 32.81% of his team's touchdowns and 9.13% of their receptions.
  
  
• Keaton Mitchell is a rookie that wasn't on my radar until the preseason, and I'm really regretting hesitating on stashing him once he got healthy. He didn't debut until Week 6 due to a shoulder injury and then also missed Week 8 (hamstring), but he's averaged 12.5 points in four games since then. That's coming despite only playing 31.46% of the snaps and getting 33.72% of the RB carries in this span as the speedster is a big play waiting to happen. The good news is that his playing time has steadily progressed from 18.42% to 24.07% to 36.36% to 46.48% week over week as he led the RB group by a solid margin this past game. Gus Edwards (32.21% of the snaps during this stretch, 26.76% last week) will likely always steal short yardage work, but if Justice Hill (26.70% during these last three games after mopping up garbage time inflated his Week 9 snaps) can cede passing game duties, then Mitchell could improve upon the 5.56% target share during this breakout that's been the one blemish.
  
  
  
  
  
• At wide receiver, a rookie who has seen a big increase in his role is Cedric Tillman. After not playing in Weeks 6-8, the 3rd-round pick has played 89.95% of the snaps and participated in 85.38% of the snaps since Donovan Peoples-Jones was traded in Week 9. That's only translated to a  7.86% target share for 3.2 points per game, but he is coming off of his best game with 4 catches on 5 targets (12.82%) for 55 yards and 9.5 points. This would be more exciting if Deshaun Watson wasn't out for the year, but it's still worth noting going forward.
  
  
• With rookies being the theme, I'll wrap up on a similar note to how I started with a look back to a previous spotlight: Tank Dell. Whew what a hit this has been since that Week 2 post! He's averaging 16.5 points with a 19.84% target share overall, but if you look just at the eight weeks he's played over half the snaps (he was eased into his debut and left Week 5 with a first-half concussion that caused him to miss the next game), the numbers are elite. In those contests, Dell has played 78.64% of the snaps, participated in 86.83% of the routes, and drawn 24.45% of the targets for 18.79 points per game.
  
  Scoring five touchdowns in four games can't be expected like these last four weeks, but there's no doubting that he's a bona fide playmaker. I briefly mentioned his insane production at the University of Houston in that previous post, but it's worth fully appreciating. In 2021, Dell caught 90 passes for 1,329 yards, and 12 TDs in 14 games (6.43, 94.93, 0.86 averages), and in 2022, those numbers were 109 for 1,398 and 17 in just 13 games (8.38, 107.43, 1.31 averages). While the Cougars' wide open offense inflated those totals to an extent, the breakdown of 2.90 yards per team attempt, 29.32% of the team's catches, 34.97% of the receiving yards, and 37.50% of the receiving TDs and then 2.80, 32.34%, 34.25%, and 42.50% clearly still hold up as an impressive prospect. The questions were mainly around the fact that he measured only 5'8.375" and 165 lbs at the combine and was already 23 and a half at draft time. That didn't stop the Texans from trading up to the 69th pick to get him, though and now he is making magic with the incredible #2 pick, CJ Stroud.