Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2023

I say it every year, but I feel like Week 2 in the NFL can be the most unpredictable. We're dealing with literally the smallest of sample sizes, teams can go from playing on the road to at home, and coaches make big adjustments to get a guy going after being underutilized in the opener like with D'Andre Swift, Christian Kirk, and Drake London. I'm not going to focus on big spikes like that this week and will instead save that for the future to see if it's a one game change or not, though.

Like last week (and how all weeks will be), snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• The week started on TNF with another high-volume TJ Hockenson game, continuing a trend ever since he was traded to Minnesota last year. After getting 6.14 looks per game for a strong 17.84% target share the first seven games in Detroit, that rose to an outrageous 9.44 and 23.42% in 9 full regular season games with his new team. The game not included in this sample is Week 18 when the Vikings pulled the starters ahead of their playoff game...in which he saw 11 of 39 targets (28.21%). That was bound to regress, especially with 1st rounder Jordan Addison providing tougher competition than the departed Adam Thielen, and Hockenson is at 19.54% through two games this season. However, he's averaging 7.5 catches after 6.36 in the 11 total games last season (so counting the 1 catch Week 18 game and 10 catch playoff game for a larger sample), and his 17-game pace would result in 111 catches. Incredibly, Hockenson STILL wouldn't hit 1,000 yards based on his wildly low 8.81 yards per catch in those games, and he's only averaging 6.57 yards per target to boot. 
  
  
• On the other end of the spectrum to Hock's 7.66 aDOT with the Vikings last year and only 4.75 so far this season, there's Kyle Pitts' utilization and sad subsequent production. The Falcons tight end had a huge 13.7 aDOT last year with only 62% of those passes deemed catchable, and so far this season those numbers are 13.92 and 58%. Pitts can run like a wide receiver, but these long passes just aren't working for Atlanta. If there's a bright side, it's that his usage has held steady in the first two weeks. Although he's only been in on 61.54% and 69.51% of the snaps (66.42% overall), running a route on 90.91% and 92.11% of the dropbacks (91.67% combined) has resulted in 16.67% and 17.24% target shares (17.02% in total). Getting these looks should result in better days ahead for the talented TE.
  
  
  
  
• Another young player with nearly identical usage in the first two games is Jaxon Smith-Njiga. While I agreed on him being the top wide receiver in this (somewhat weak) draft class, I was surprised by his average draft position over the summer with him even going ahead of teammate Tyler Lockett at certain points. Clearly the #3 option, Seattle's 1st-round pick has played on only 58.82% and 55.56% of the snaps, but he has been in on 65.52% and 62.22% of the routes to result in 5 and 6 targets. That 18.03% target share overall isn't going to wow you and has only resulted in 12.7 total points so far. It's a solid number for the rookie, though, and if this offense clicks more like this past week as people expected going into the season, the production will come as his role grows with experience.
  
  
• Another rookie WR that I like is Tank Dell, and he really made the most out of his new opportunity last week. I only had him as an honorable mention in my list of top rookies for this season because I wasn't sure about his situation, which is looking like a mistake. With a fellow rookie at quarterback and the fact that Houston had a lot of competition between an emerging receiver in Nico Collins, veteran signings Roberts Woods and Noah Brown, and another first year Day 2 pick John Metchie, it wasn't clear how many targets Dell would see. Well, that was answered quickly since the Texans have had to let CJ Stroud air it out due to trailing so much, Brown went on IR after the opener, and Metchie was eased in. The former Houston Cougar who was insanely productive in college jumped from being in on 48.05% of the snaps and 46.30% of the routes to 78.57% and 81.82% over the first two contests, and he turned a 23.26% target share into 20.2 points after those were 6.98% and 6.4 in his debut. He actually ran 5 more routes than Collins and just 3 fewer than Woods, and so far in each game the Texans have had three WRs get 72%+ route participation with two others getting a little work in. Dell should be entrenched in that starting trio going forward.
  
  
• In a reversal of that situation, the Patriots saw the return of DeVante Parker from injury and Kendrick Bourne's opportunities were cut in half as a result. The latter was one of the surprises of Week 1 when he parlayed a 91.25% snap rate, 93.10% route participation, and 20.37% target share into 24.4 points, but those numbers were only 51.35%, 55.32%, 21.43%, and 6.9 in this past game. Meanwhile, Parker shockingly was healthy enough to be in on 100% of the plays and thus saw 19.05% of the targets to finish with 11.7 points. Interestingly, there was hardly any change for JuJu Smith-Schuster as he's been in on 53.75% and 59.46% of the snaps, ran routes on 46.55% and 53.19% of dropbacks, and received 12.96% and 14.29% target shares for 7.3 and 7.8 points. Rumors of his knee being in bad shape might be true if this is all he can do after they essentially gave him the same big free agent contract that they let Jakobi Meyers leave for.
  
  
• Moving over to running back rotations, a team I'm really keeping an eye on is Washington with new Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy. In the opener, Brian Robinson Jr. received 60.56% of the snaps, 76% of the RB carries, and 6.90% of the targets with 13.6 PPR points as a result. Antonio Gibson (only 35.21%, 12%, and 3.45%, respectively) fumbling in the red zone early in the 2nd quarter might have contributed to Robinson's workload, though. In Week 2, Robinson scored over twice as many points, 28.9, but actually saw his snap rate decrease to 52.05%. He just got the ball a ton when he was in there with 90% of the RB carries (albeit of a smaller pie: 18 of 20 after 19 of 25 in Week 1) and an 8.82% target share, which again was a good amount higher than the 3.47% pro-rated share he had as a rookie. That's a good sign for Robinson's versatility in this new offense, but it is worth paying attention to Gibson seeing the same 8.82% target share this week (3 out of 34) while this time getting 47.95% of the snaps. He only got 2 carries with the Commanders trailing most of the game, but I would not be surprised if this is much closer to a 50/50 split in terms of snaps going forward. Robinson is trusted to get more of the carries and has an encouraging improvement in the passing game, even if he is scoring a bit over his head right now, and Gibson could still end up being productive by playing on more of the passing downs.
  
  
• One young back who suddenly is no longer in a committee is Kyren Williams after Cam Akers was a surprise game day inactive and then traded for a ham sandwich this week. Williams was effective enough in Week 1 to score 17.4 points (largely off of two TDs) with just a 65.43% snap rate, 40.54% of the RB carries, and a 5.41% target share, but those numbers would've been higher if he didn't cede 4th quarter work to Akers due to the blowout nature of the game. Fast forward to Week 2, and the new starter was the definition of a workhorse with a massive 95% snap rate (in a game that they ran 80 plays!), all 14 of the RB carries, and 10 targets for a 19.23% share. He again scored twice to result in 28 points, and while he won't continue to find the end zone at this pace, that kind of workload is something to be excited about. I was a big fan of Williams at Notre Dame, where he had back to back seasons of over 1,000 rushing yards with over 300 receiving yards and TD totals of 14 and 17. He looked to be a nice draft prospect before his stock tanked at the combine by running a terrible 4.65 40 yard dash despite being only 5'9" and 194 lbs. That resulted in him falling to the 5th round, 164th overall, but there was buzz in camp last year that the team liked him and had plans to involve him in Week 1 before an early ankle injury put him on IR. Now you can see that faith they have in him with this usage and Akers now in Minnesota.