Bucks receive:
Trail Blazers receive:
Suns receive:
The final return is not bad at all, with a true judgment depending on what they are able to flip Holiday for since the 33 year old All-Star is surely to end up on a contender next. The long-rumored offer from Miami was based around three or four 1st round picks (by gaining one from sending Tyler Herro elsewhere), 2022 1st round pick Nikola Jovic, and expiring contracts, so that's what the end result will be compared to. What they have for sure is Ayton, and your view of the 25 year old former #1 overall pick will determine how well you think the Blazers did. The $102 million remaining on his 25% max contract is certainly not cheap, but getting off of 29 year old Nurkic's bloated contract is a plus. Ayton is of course immensely talented and now provides a high ceiling option in the front court to go along with their exciting young guards Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons. Getting Camara thrown in after he looked like a steal at Summer League as the 52nd pick this past June was a nice plus, and the 23 year old joins Matisse Thybulle, Kris Murray, and Rayan Rupert as interesting options on the wing.
And now that Lillard's old team is thoroughly covered, it's time to stop burying the lede and talk about his new team that became the betting favorite to win the Finals. That is a bit of a stretch in my opinion, particularly with rookie head coach Adrian Griffin coming in, but they are clearly going to have as high of a ceiling as anyone. After ranking a paltry 15th in offensive efficiency last season at 114.3 points per 100 possession and seeing their title defense derailed in the 2022 playoffs with a terrible 103.4 mark, they added one of the most dangerous scorers in the game. Pairing Dame's range shooting and Giannis' sheer force in the pick-and-roll with Khris Middleton as a secondary playmaker will make them much more dynamic. Middleton often owned crunch time duties with Jrue as the supporting threat, and too often they'd get stuck in the mud during the postseason. Having two DPOY caliber players in Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez on the back line can help mitigate the incredibly stark downgrade defensively from Holiday to Lillard, and this should be the most complementary combination of skill sets that the former Blazer has ever had around him.
All of that being said, there is a big risk in shaking up a core that's been so successful with a 33 year old who is costing them the little remaining draft capital they had to trade and due an estimated $216 million over the next four years. Heck, Lillard is only a month younger than Holiday despite coming into the league three years later, and the final two years of an extension that was signed just last year won't have a set amount since it could go up with the cap. The fact that Giannis can opt out of his contract in 2025 loomed large over all of this, though, and perhaps he will now sign the extension he became eligible for last week. That will likely still wait until next summer so that he can sign for an additional year, but the team continuing to show its commitment to going all out in his prime has to be encouraging. Holiday was similarly traded for in 2020 as a way to encourage Antetokounmpo to sign an extension and then immediately helped them get over the hump to win that season's Finals. It is tough to give up such a respected All-Star like this, but I think this move is worth the risk. Sending out Allen as part of this is not nothing, either, even if he is one of the least popular players in the league for his antics. After all, he started 131 regular season games the last two regular seasons and shot 40.4% on 3's with a 42.9% mark in 17 playoff games to boot. Their great signing of Malik Beasley for just the minimum and internal options like Pat Connaughton can help make up for that, though, and he is a pending free agent anyway.
I don't love the Suns adding Allen or getting involved in this deal in the first place, but I can understand what they're going for...to an extent. This was the type of move that was more expected early in the summer as a way for them to break up Ayton's huge contract into three mid-sized ones to build out their roster within the limiting rules for Second Apron teams in the new CBA. I was thinking about a ton of trade ideas for him around draft time, even one that landed him in Portland, Little in Phoenix, and involved Nurkic like this ended up. However, after Phoenix had an excellent summer with so many great bargain signings (including another former Blazer big, Drew Eubanks), it didn't feel like depth was as big of a concern anymore. They even moved off of one of their few contracts that could've been filler in a trade when they salary dumped Cam Payne, who coincidentally is rumored to be of interest to Milwaukee now as Lillard's backup.
The relationship with Ayton was apparently beyond repair, though, even with Frank Vogel replacing Monty Williams as coach and consistently talking about how excited he was to work with the young big. There's always been chatter that #1 pick in 2018 wants to expand his offensive role, and that simply wasn't going to happen with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and now Bradley Beal on the team. He probably felt overqualified to be someone who just plays defense, sets screen, and rolls to the rim, which he doesn't do with enough physicality anyway, so now he gets a fresh start. Conversely, being a bruiser is a big part of Nurkic's game, and while his contract is bigger than it should be, it's worth just over half of what Ayton is making over the same period of time. Nurkic is not as mobile of a defender, especially with his leg injuries over the years, but he's been a difference maker on that end in the past. He can provide a boost in rebounding and passing at least, and he even dabbled in outside shooting at the highest volume of his career last year: 36.1% on 2.3 per game in 26.8 minutes.
The defensive question mark and his initial reaction to the Beal trade with the awkward Tweet above is why I didn't have him going to Phoenix in that earlier trade idea, but I'm excited that they got Little like I proposed. After surprisingly falling to the 25th pick in the 2019 draft, he's shown really nice flashes as a wing who owns per-36 minute averages of 12.8 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.7 steals, and 0.9 blocks for his career with 45.1%/33.5%/72.5% shooting. It's been a more respectable 34.9% from deep since his rookie year, and the 23 year old signed a really solid rookie extension that's just going into effect this season. With a 7'1.25'' wingspan on his strong 6'5", 224 lb frame, Little could help unlock some lineup versatility. In some ways, he is a more experienced version of Camara, who is a tough inclusion after looking like a real find on a 2nd Round Exception contract but still unproven.Brooklyn situation all over again 😂
— Jusuf Nurkić 🇧🇦 (@bosnianbeast27) June 18, 2023
The aforementioned shooting of Allen can help provide spacing for various lineups, as well, and his little bit of combo guard experience in the past could help considering how many shooting guards are on this roster. Johnson would be another one in theory, but Fischer has already confirmed my suspicion that he'll be one of the players cut in their roster crunch. I'm actually surprised they agreed to take on the $2.8 million guaranteed for the 21st pick in 2021 who hasn't lived up to his potential yet given their already huge luxury tax bill. Their total salary actually went up a hair in this trade, so I wonder if they might pay a team to take in Johnson in order to save some scratch and even create a small Trade Exception. And on that note to wrap things up, Bobby Marks noted that they did create a $1.1 million TE in this deal, for whatever that will be worth, while Portland created a nice $8.8 million TE.
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