Sunday, October 1, 2023

The Other Shoe Drops for Portland: Jrue Holiday to Boston

Celtics receive:
Jrue Holiday$36,861,707$39,403,893

Trail Blazers receive:
Malcolm Brogdon$22,500,000$22,500,000
Robert Williams III$11,571,429$12,428,571$13,285,713
2024 Warriors 1st round pick (protected 1-4 in '24, 1 in '25, then unprotected)
2029 Celtics 1st round pick

The Celtics got their Marcus Smart replacement. After originally intending to send Brogdon to the Clippers in their trade for Kristaps Porzingis before it became Smart to the Grizzlies, it's now Brogdon to the Trail Blazers along with Williams and one of the picks they got from Memphis in that trade. The net result for them this summer is replacing Smart and Williams with Holiday and Porzingis while losing Brogdon, shedding Danilo Gallinari's salary, and getting the pick that eventually became Jordan Walsh and four future 2nd rounders.
That's a high variance gamble with Boston getting more top-end talent but also older with less depth. The 33 year old Holiday is a 5-time All-Defensive guard who can provide more offense than the 29 year old former Defensive Player of the Year, Smart, and 28 year old Porzingis is of course a much more renowned scorer than the 26 year old (later this month) Williams. While there will likely be some drop off defensively overall, Time Lord was limited to just 35 games for the C's last season, and his knee issues might have contributed to this move. The problem is that Porzingis has a long injury history himself, and now they'll only have 37 year old Al Horford as the other proven big. Luke Kornet can be an innings eater in the regular season when one sits out, but I wouldn't be surprised if another move adds some help here by the trade deadline.

I'd expect them to lean on small lineups like they did for much of last season with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown as the forwards and Holiday (who won the Olympics with Tatum) sharing lead guard duties next to Derrick White. Losing Brogdon after he was the Sixth Man of the Year will definitely hurt, but there was reportedly some damage to the relationship there after how his elbow injury was handled before it scuttled the LA trade. Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser will need to continue their development to help make up for it, and the former might have a better chance at reaching a rookie extension now. Of course, Holiday is also due an extension since he could opt out next summer, which could have been a factor in Milwaukee's willingness to move him in the Damian Lillard trade, but that might not come until six months from now due to the restrictions that come with a player who was just traded.

That Lillard deal has now resulted in Brogdon, Williams, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, three 1st round picks with almost no protections, and two potential pick swaps for the Blazers, who also got off of Jusuf Nurkic's contract at the cost of Nassir Little. With their young guards in place and Brogdon turning 30 in December, it would not be surprising at all if this leads to yet another trade for more assets to add to this tally. It was a bit unexpected to see Williams included here given that they just added Ayton, so while he is young with some power forward experience, that is another possible move to keep an eye out for. Overall, this is ended up a strong return considering the limitations faced with Lillard's massive contract and public pressure.

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