Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-5 2023

After a couple of weeks with NBA posts due to breaking news, I'm back with some data observations from the last few weeks of the NFL.

In case you missed the first two editions of this, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 5 finished with the "Davante Adams Revenge Game" between the Raiders and Packers, but it was Jakobi Meyers who stole the show with 7 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown to continue a strong start to his Las Vegas career. He missed Week 2 with a concussion, but in the four games he's played, Meyers now is averaging 17.6 PPR points thanks to an impressive 26.28% target share while playing on 89.55% of the snaps and 89.94% of the routes. If you only look at the three games with Jimmy Garoppolo, those numbers rise to 21.7, 32.32%, 87.18%, and 87.61%. That point total should regress some since scoring three touchdowns already probably isn't sustainable, but he has really improved at finding the end zone. After only scoring two total touchdowns in his first three seasons in the NFL, Meyers scored 6 last year, and now he has a huge role on his new team.
  
  
• Also in that game was Christian Watson's first full workload after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury and being eased into Week 4. Although he only scored 11.6 points, he was in on 84.48% of the snaps and 85.29% of the routes while commanding a strong 24.14% target share. Jordan Love's erratic throws were and could be a problem, but he loves to chuck it deep, which is Watson's specialty.
  
  Perhaps more notable than Watson's predictably strong usage was the ripple effect he had on his teammates. Romeo Doubs was still out there for 86.21% of the snaps and 97.06% of the routes but only saw a 13.79% target share after it was 25.58% in the first four games. As some feared, rookie Jayden Reed was down to a 50% snap rate and 58.82% route participation with only a 6.9% target share compared to 60.98%, 69.13%, and 20.16% coming into the week. Interestingly, rookie tight end Luke Musgrave tied Watson for the team-lead with 7 targets to get up to a 17.74% target share in his four healthy games. After coach Matt LeFleur was seen yelling at him over some mistake on the opening series, Musgrave was seemingly benched for a couple of drives before racking up check downs in only 68.97% of the snaps and 67.65% of the routes. Overall in those four full games, he has a solid 79.76% snap rate while running routes on 79.43% of the dropbacks, though.

  Packers Air Yards on MNF:
  
  Christian Watson: 180
  Jayden Reed: 28
  Romeo Doubs: 18
  Dontayvion Wicks: 10
  Luke Musgrave: 9
  Josiah Deguara: 4
  Tucker Kraft: 0
  Patrick Taylor: -3
  AJ Dillon: -5

  — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 10, 2023

  
  
• Another passing game I'm interested in is Jacksonville's, but I'm not sure how much Zay Jones being in and out of the lineup since Week 2 has affected things. Christian Kirk went from only playing in three receiver sets in the opener (1.9 points, 60% of the snaps, 65.71% of the routes, 9.38% of the targets) to exploding for 17.04 points per game ever since with a huge bump to 82.31% of the snaps, 92.13% of the routes, and a 27.03% target share. Conversely, Calvin Ridley went from a huge debut on his new team into a three week slump and then got back on track in the last game, albeit with a lot of production coming after Jones got hurt again. His 20% target share in total feels low based on his talent and his 81.87% snap rate and 88.73% route participation. I'd expect him to get closer to or surpass Kirk's overall number of 23.89%, especially with Jones banged up.
  
  Oddly, Evan Engram has had exactly 8 targets in four straight games after 5 in the opener, and he sits at a 20.56% target share with a route rate of 84.04% despite only a 75.82% snap rate. I thought he'd be hurt more by Ridley's arrival, but since this "tight end" doesn't spend much time blocking, his 11 point average makes him reliable at the bleakest fantasy position.
  
  
• A passing attack that has quietly had more volume than you might think is Atlanta's, and Drake London is starting to benefit. After criminally only having 1 target and no catches in the opener due to the team only needing 22 dropbacks against the overmatched Panthers, the second-year WR is averaging 12.57 points with a 21.48% target share, 86.27% snap rate, and 90% route rate over the last four weeks. The Falcons are averaging a healthy 40 dropbacks after that run-heavy first game, which is 11th in the league during that span thanks to running the 5th-most plays per game. After averaging 14 points over the final five games of last year, London's breakout could still be coming, especially with a favorable schedule going forward.
  
  The total plays they are running is helping Bijan Robinson overcome more frustrating usage by this coaching staff. The 8th overall pick holds a 15.69% target share, which is great for a running back, but he's only playing 70.54% of the snaps and somehow only getting 51.94% of the RB carries. I think Tyler Allgeier is a good player (which made a team with a lot of holes taking an RB in the 1st more confounding), but he should not be getting 48.06% of those calls when Robinson is on the roster. The rookie is averaging 5.4 yards per carry with a 47.8% success rate compared to Allgeier's 3.1 and 43.5%, respectively, but for now, Robinson is only averaging 16.4 points per game.
  
  
  
  
  
• I debated waiting on writing about the Rams offense until we have more than a one-game sample size with Cooper Kupp back, but there are two things I wanted to note. First, he stepped right back into his usual role to be in on 94.64% of the snaps and 97.62% of the routes en route to a huge 35.28% target share and 19.8 points. Star rookie Puka Nacua was not hurt by this competition for looks as he got just one fewer target for a 32.35% share and 20.1 points while playing every snap. Most notably, Tutu Atwell still played 89.29% of the snaps, ran a route on 95.24% of the routes, and got a decent 14.71% target share after it was 21.88% the first four weeks. It was Van Jefferson who dropped from 88.26%/87.98%/9.38% to just TWO total snaps before getting traded this week to Atlanta. I wasn't too worried about Nacua with Kupp's return, and now it looks like Atwell will still get plenty of run in Sean McVay's preferred 11 personnel.
  
  The second notable change is that Kyren Williams hasn't had quite the same workhorse role the last couple of weeks. He played an insane 95% and 100% of the snaps after Cam Akers was inactive and then traded, but it's been a more reasonable 71.95% and 83.93% the last two weeks as Ronnie Rivers has gotten some opportunities. 6th-rounder Zach Evans didn't get any snaps, but the fact that he was active this past week for the first time in his young career could be something to watch for going forward. How much the RBs will get targets could be in question with Kupp's return since Williams went from a 13.75% target share the first four games to just 5.88% in this contest, but it's worth point out that the Rams couldn't get into a rhythm in the second half with only 56 total plays in the game. Tyler Higbee could also be largely affected since he went from a 16.25% target share to 8.82%, but his 92.66% snap rate and 87.56% route participation on the season should hold steady as L.A. is a team that's consistently relied on starters to have heavy snap counts over the years.