Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 7 2023

Some of my observations from last week turned into the kiss of death for the players involved. Even the headliner who continued his strong performance, Joshua Palmer, apparently got banged up and is questionable for this weekend. Hopefully things go more smoothly this time around.

As always, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 7 kicked off on Thursday Night Football with another huge game for Alvin Kamara. The running back saw 14 of the team's 53 targets for a huge 26.42% target share, and he's now up to a wide receiver-like 24.07% share (an astounding 9.75 looks per game) since coming off of the three-game suspension to start the year. Combined with seeing 76.67% of the RB carries (17.25 per game), he's averaging 21.7 points so far in PPR formats. With New Orleans' offensive line so banged up, it often feels like quick dump offs to Kamara are the only thing that Derek Carr can consistently execute.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another 'back who also got off to a late start and now is seeing a somewhat surprising amount of work through the air is Jonathan Taylor. After getting activated off of the PUP list and signing a large extension, he was eased into just 15.15% of the snaps in Week 5. That number went up to 42.31% and then 50% this past week, as you'd expect, with subsequent point totals of 11.5 and 21. What you might not expect is that a decent part of that production is thanks to target shares of 11.54% and 18.18%. Having more of a pocket passer like Garnder Minshew going forward means more check downs than Taylor might have seen with Anthony Richardson, who could just take off on a scramble instead. That is encouraging to see as a supplemental path to points since Zack Moss isn't likely to go away after filling in so admirably early in the season. Moss has played 50% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks while getting the call on 46.67% and 50.00% of the RB carries, and I'd expect things to end up around a 60-40 or 67-33 split in Taylor's favor going forward.
  
• Like Taylor, Rashod Bateman was a player who entered the season with health question marks after undergoing surgery (the dreaded Lisfranc surgery in this case), and unfortunately, he has not looked as good in his return. Bateman has seen exactly 3 targets in all six games that he's played, which has resulted in just a 10.06% target share. The third-year wide receiver missed a game with a hamstring injury, and when he has been active, he's only played 50.73% of the snaps and run a route on 51.8% of the dropbacks. Even with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens having an impressive season, that kind of involvement isn't going to lead to much production, which is a shame for such a talented young player.
  
  
• A young WR on a good team who is starting to stack up the stats is Rashee Rice. He's been on my radar ever since Kansas City traded up in the 2nd round to draft him, and he's shown flashes to start the year. Overall on the season, his modest 13.03% target share is actually second-best on the team despite only playing 40.91% of the snaps and participating in 39.4% of the routes. His playing time is on the rise, though, with 49.30% and 58.82% of the snaps and routes on 50.00% and 65.22% of the dropbacks resulting in 10.26% and 15% target shares the last two weeks. This comes after a surprising drop to 30.3% of the snaps 23.26% of the routes in Week 5, and Justin Watson's injury during this time could have contributed to the bump. Even with Watson potentially due back this week, it's hard to put the toothpaste back in the tube after the rookie has been their most productive WR.
  
  
• Sticking with rookies, Michael Mayer is starting to show why a lot of people considered him to be a 1st round prospect and the top tight end in a loaded class. After hovering around half of the snaps or fewer and route participation rates in the 30s the first four weeks, his snap rates have been 65.63%, 81.43%, 70.77% with routes run on 45.71%, 66.67%, and 54.35% of the dropbacks and target shares of 10.34%, 19.35%, 8.89%. That dip back down last week had to do with the fact that Las Vegas was blown out and pulled their starters late, which could actually be a good sign for him that he was a part of that group. Combining these last three weeks, he's played 72.86% of the snaps, participated in 55.26% of the routes, and seen a 12.38% target share to put up 7.23 points per game. Those numbers aren't going to jump off the page, but they're trending in the right direction. TE is a position that is notorious for not having many rookie contributors, but considering how Mayer as a true freshman immediately became the second-leading receiver at Notre Dame aka Tight End U, he could be a useful contributor down the stretch.
  
  
• One last TE to call out is Trey McBride since Zach Ertz was placed on Injured Reserve this week. The former 2nd rounder did virtually nothing as a rookie but has been used more with this new coaching staff. His overall season numbers (44.32% of the snaps, 34.5% of the routes, and 9.46% of the targets for 4.57 points) aren't much to look at, but they were already improving in the last two weeks (55.63%, 47.62%, 15.49%, and 8.05). Now with Ertz out of the picture for at least the next four games, McBride should be a full-time player.