Monday, October 30, 2023

The Harden Trade, Part IV

Clippers receive:
James Harden$35,680,595
P.J. Tucker$11,014,500$11,539,000
Filip Petrusev$1,119,563$1,891,857

76ers receive:
Marcus Morris$17,116,279
Nicolas Batum$11,710,818
Robert Covington$11,692,308
Kenyon Martin Jr.$1,930,681
2026 1st round pick (least favorable of the Clippers, Rockets, or Thunder)
2028 Clippers 1st round pick
Right to swap 2029 1st round picks with the Clippers (top-3 protected)
2024 and 2029 2nd round picks
Cash considerations (reportedly $2 million)

Thunder receive:
Right to swap 2027 1st round picks with the Clippers
Cash considerations (reportedly $1.1 million)

A Woj bomb dropping at 11 pm PST the night before the NFL Trade Deadline was hilarious, even if it took an unusually long 38 minutes to get the players involved reported after the initial news. And the draft assets involved still have yet to have actual details! There was some buzz (I believe I heard it on The Lowe Post) that Los Angeles were shopping an unprotected 1st of theirs for two protected picks to entice Philadelphia. Based on Woj's follow up tweet, it would appear they were successful, and Oklahoma City first comes to mind as a team who has more picks than they can use and might look to consolidate.

The initial takeaway here is that the Clips managed to get this done without giving up Terance Mann, and that the 76ers included Tucker's salary to open up even more cap space for next summer while also waiving Danny Green to create a roster spot for this. I'll dive into it more in the morning when more information is confirmed about the picks, but I wanted to get a first look at the salaries involved (with credit to Keith Smith on Spotrac) posted for comparison.

10/31 update: It in fact was OKC who got involved as a third team, and I updated the final tally above now that we have more details. Only getting a 2027 pick swap in order to send the worst of their 2026 1st rounders (as Derek Bodner reported) isn't as great of a value as I thought they'd get, but they're making a gamble on the upside of the Clippers being on a big decline by then. It is also kind of fitting that they got those picks from the trades of Paul George and Russell Westbrook (with the Rockets pick top-4 protected) and that they're involved in reuniting the latter with Harden yet again after they started their careers as Thunder players.We'll see how they work together this time around after Westbrook's one season in Houston wasn't the smoothest but was pretty effective offensively. Now they also have Kawhi Leonard and George on the team, though, and the dynamic between the former and Harden will be the most interesting to watch. This move of course dramatically increases the playmaking ability on the team, but it also adds another player who likes to have the ball in his hands a lot. Sending out four players who typically spend time at power forward also means that they'll now likely be starting a little small with Leonard at that spot next to the other three star perimeter players and Ivica Zubac, though the touchy subject of bringing Westbrook off the bench could make more sense to balance things.

Tucker being included in the deal helps replace some of those front court minutes, and he can play some "micro ball" center in switching lineups like that year with Westbrook on the Rockets. With Mann and Norman Powell retained, L.A. still has a variety of wings that they can mix together, and this could also be a show of faith in their 1st round rookie, Kobe Brown, who was drafted as an older, "ready" prospect. While I don't love the fit and cost in draft assets (swap rights down the road are always so volatile), they mostly are giving up players who aren't quite as effective as a couple of years ago when it seemed like they had more useful wings than practically anyone in the league. Consolidating them could be worth the risk, even if Harden has now had three messy breakups in the last three and a half years. The former MVP got his wish to go home to where he starred at Artesia High School, and he should be extra motivated to earn a new contract after leaving so much money on the table these last few years.

For Philly, this is about the best return that Daryl Morey could hope for after his relationship with his number one boy soured so badly this year. That 1st from OKC lacks upside, but even still, Morey got the extra pick that he was insistent on in order to still try to get help for this season. Two 1st rounders, a pick swap, two 2nd rounders, three potentially helpful veterans on expiring contracts, and a young flier is a job pretty well done considering the lack of leverage that Harden created (as usual). I talked over the summer about the possibility of a homecoming for former Sixer Covington and/or Philadelphia native Morris in this kind of deal, and now we'll see how the two of them, Batum, and Martin fit with this current squad.

The 76ers accomplished their goal of not taking any future money back, and now with Tucker's player option off the table, they could potentially tear things down to just Joel Embiid and the cheap cap hold of Tyrese Maxey this summer. That is why Maxey, who could take off even further as a star now, didn't get a rookie extension like so much of the 2020 draft class since it would assuredly start at a much higher number than the $13,031,760 he's set to count as until signing a new deal. It also depends on if they decline the rookie scale option of Jaden Springer (a decision due today) and waive the tricky contract of Paul Reed, who could go from a non-guaranteed deal to fully guaranteed if they win a playoff series.

Due to empty roster charges, they still wouldn't be able to sign two max contracts outright (despite what some talking heads might have said) even if the cap does rise by the maximum of 10%, but they could potentially sign one and another solid starter. This deal will presumably mean that Leonard and George stay in L.A., though, and Boston's trade for Jrue Holiday likely rules out him returning to the team that drafted him. That doesn't leave a ton of stars out there to sign, which is why Morey wanted a deal based around picks so that he could re-route them for someone now to not waste a year of Embiid's prime. One pending free agent that I've been thinking about them acquiring through Harden since the summer is Pascal Siakam since he and Toronto haven't reached an extension. He is a Cameroon native like Embiid and of course has a ton of history with former Raptors coach and current 76ers head man, Nick Nurse. Teammate OG Anunoby could be an easier fit with a lower salary and as more of a defensive wing, but either will likely be hard to extract. Or perhaps an unknown target could emerge, particularly once we get to December 15th when most of this past summer's free agent signings become trade eligible. In any case, the 76ers have a lot more optionality now than they did when a former MVP wasn't playing.

11/1 update: John Hollinger reports an important detail now that the trade is official: that Clippers pick swap in 2029 is top-3 protected. It's amusing to me that even though the lottery is for the first four selections now, picks are still often protected in this old school way, but in any case, this could prove to be an important safety net for L.A.

Bobby Marks also adds that Harden received $40,595 of what could have been a $5.1 million trade bonus had he not waived it to make the math work in matching salaries. The 76ers have to pay that, but the Clippers are sending them $2 million in cash along with $1.1 million to the Thunder. Philly also chose to create Trade Exceptions of $6,831,413 and $559,782 rather than a larger $11,014,500 (the equivalent to Tucker's salary). That's because only teams under the First Apron could structure a trade taking back 125% of outgoing salary, so they would become hard-capped for future moves. Basically, it could've been structured as Harden's $35.6 million for all four incoming players ($42.4 million, which is 119%) and then Tucker for just the larger Trade Exception. Instead, it's Harden for Morris and Covington, who combine for $28.8 million, to create the $6.8 million difference in salary for the TE and not have to deal with the Apron.

Lastly, Woj reports that Petrusev (or perhaps more importantly his partially guaranteed salary) is now being sent to Sacramento along with cash considerations. This can help trim the Clips' massive luxury tax payment while the Kings get a free look at the #50 pick from 2021 who has played well in Europe the last couple of years. There's no word on what L.A. is receiving, so it's likely a fake, top-55 protected 2nd or something along those lines.

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