Thursday, September 14, 2023

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2023

NFL football is officially back, and this is probably my favorite time of year. Going from my birthday in early August to fantasy draft season to the actual games is always a blast, and now it's time to grind. I always track snap counts, targets, and carries for every player each week, and followers on Twitter know I used to post a thread each week with the hashtag #GIOingDeep sharing some observations. (Very creative title with my name, I know). This season I'm going to compile my thoughts on notable player usage into posts here for easier accessibility instead. The frequency will depend on when my schedule permits, but it will be a nice way to check in on how teams might be changing up the utilization of some players over the course of the season.

Snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and this season I'm also looking into PFF's routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) data listed on FantasyLife.com.

  • The new season started with encouraging usage for Isiah Pacheco in Thursday's opening kickoff. He didn't get the official start, possibly since he's still working his way back from offseason surgery or simply out of veteran deference to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Pacheco led the backfield in snaps with 31 (47.69%) and carries with 8 (57.14% of the RB carries). More importantly, the second year back saw 4 looks through the air for a 10.81% target share after only getting 14 targets (2.28%) all of last season. Part of me wonders if CEH got the nominal start in order to try to showcase him for a possible trade, but in any case, Pacheco being more than just a two-down bruiser would be a welcome development.

  • Speaking of running backs getting more targets than usual, Nick Chubb had the third-most looks on the Browns in Week 1 with 4 for a 13.79% target share. It was a middling 7.31% mark overall last season, but he finished the last six games at 8.97% with Deshaun Watson after only seeing 6.57% when Jacoby Brissett started the first 11 games. With Kareem Hunt no longer on the team to take passing down work, it could wheels up for Chubb.

    I also wanted to note that Cleveland's 5th round pick last year, Jerome Ford, had an interesting opener since he lost a fumble early but still was the clear #2 option like he appeared to be during all of camp, even with a hamstring issue. The surprising blowout inflated his stats, but getting 40.54% of the snaps and 45.45% of the RB carries (15 for only 36 yards) is something to keep an eye on.

  • Sticking with the topic of RB targets, the first game of the Sean Payton era in Denver was not surprising at all with the backs account for 11 of the 32 targeted passes. I'm not sure the right solution to last year's Russell Wilson disaster is trying to turn him into Drew Brees with an aDOT of just 5.31 resulting in only 5.2 yards per attempt and 6.6 yards per completion. That game plan can result in some productive fantasy days for the RBs, though, and it was great to see Javonte Williams out there after tearing multiple ligaments in his knee last year. He saw a massive 20.79% target share in his first three games last year before getting hurt in the fourth, and he's off to a strong start with 6 looks for a 18.75% share despite being eased in with a 45.31% snap rate. His 13 carries also accounted for 61.9% of the totes among RBs, so there was a lot to like even with just 9.7 fantasy points as the result.

    Free agent addition Samaje Perine did get the exact same 45.31% snap rate with the remaining 38.1% of the carries and a 12.5% target share, and breaking out a 20 yard catch-and-run helped him finish with 11.8 points. It's worth mentioning that Jerry Jeudy was out and Greg Dulcich also left early, but if the RBs are going to be so central to Payton's attack like they were in New Orleans, both Williams and Perine could have productive seasons.

  • One last RB that I wanted to feature is James Cook. While on the surface level it looks like he didn't do much as a 2nd round pick last year, he did finish the season on a bit of a high note with a 42.69% snap rate, 43% of the RB carries, and a 9.09% target share resulting in 11.16 points per game over Buffalo's last five games. Now operating as the clear starter, Cook began this season with a modest 10.3 points but great underlying metrics of a 59.42% snap rate, a surprising 80% of the RB carries with 12, and a strong 15.38% target share with 6. While it was odd that he wasn't out there in the two minute drill at the end of regulation, the pedigree and role bode well for his outlook.

  • At WR, it's hard not to get too excited about the waiver wire darling of the week, Puka Nacua. Although I didn't end up writing about the rookie WRs that I think will contribute this season like in some past years, he did make my top-10 list on Twitter despite being the 20th receiver taken in this year's draft. The Utah native was the 136th ranked recruit overall in the 247Sports composite as a Washington commit, but after the COVID-shortened 2020 season, he transferred back home to BYU and produced an underrated draft profile. Nacua accounted for 24.95% of the team's receiving yards and 25% of their receiving touchdowns in his 12 games as a junior before 26.81% of the yards and an okay 20% of the TDs in his 9 games as a senior (but while adding 5 rushing TDs). He also had a nice 26.81% of the catches last year along with 14 and 25 carries in those two years, so clearly the team wanted to get the ball in his hands. With good size at nearly 6'2" and 201 pounds, he put up solid numbers at his pro day with a 4.56 40 yard dash, 10'1" broad jump, 33" vertical, and 4.36 shuttle time.

    All of that is to say that Nacua was a really nice value pick as the last selection of the 5th round, and after positive training camp buzz, I'm not super surprised he had an awesome debut. No one could have expected this, but it's not completely out of nowhere. Playing 77.78% of the snaps, the rookie ran a route on 35 out of Matthew Stafford's 39 dropbacks (89.74%) and earned an astounding 40.54% target share. Turning those 15 targets into 10 catches for 119 yards should help secure his role even when Cooper Kupp returns from IR, especially since the All-Pro operates more from the slot while Nacua was playing mostly on the outside.
  • The rookie who at the top of my list, Jordan Addison, didn't disappoint with 4 catches for 61 yards and a touchdown in his debut. The fourth WR drafted this year did that despite not getting a full workload yet as he only played on 56.25% of the snaps and ran a route on 65.96% of the dropbacks. Conversely, KJ Osborn was in on 90.63% of the snaps and 93.62% of the routes, and both saw 6 looks for the same 13.64% target share. It's all but certain that Addison's role will only grow from here, but it's worth noting that Osborn could be in store for a bigger season than I expected in this pass-heavy offense.

  • Lastly, there was one tight end who caught my eye with a shocking Week 1 role: Durham Smythe. After not using Mike Gesicki as much last year and letting him leave in free agency, there's been a question about who else will Miami throw to besides their elite WR duo, and Smythe could be the unlikely answer. He played on 100% of the snaps, ran a route on 91.3% of the drop backs, and turned a 15.91% target share into 3 catches for 44 yards. That was the second-most yards of his career, though, and I'm not expecting any consistent games going forward. Notre Dame is known to produce good TEs, but even back there the 2018 4th rounder was known mostly as a blocker. Last year, Smythe played on 56.89% of the snaps in his 16 games compared to just 45.22% for Gesicki because of the blocking duties required in Mike McDaniel's offense, but that only resulted in 15 catches for 129 yards and 1 touchdown. I'm not sure if the big bump in route participation compared to just blocking will change things too much, but I just wanted to call out this huge role to watch going forward.
Posted by at
Labels:

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)