Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 13-16 2023

It's here: fantasy football championship week! Since my last post, rookies Tank Dell and Keaton Mitchell suffered unfortunate injuries, but Rachaad White and Trey McBride have continued getting the type of awesome usage that is the point of this series. Once again, I did not mean to have to lump in this many weeks for one post, but the holiday season got in the way. That means there's a lot to talk about, so I'll just get to it with the regular note that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• When talking about ideal workloads, the conversation pretty much starts with Christian McCaffrey. He just played 100% of the 49ers snaps for the third time this year while also seeing 10 targets for a 22.73% target share that would make a lot of wide receivers blush. Overall on the season he's played 82.78% of the snaps with a 18.62% target share while also getting 74.78% of the running back carries. The combination of receiving and goal line usage in Kyle Shanahan's creative scheme has led to averaging 25.21 PPR points, which is not only the highest among all players but almost 5 points higher than the next RB. The fantasy MVP should have a solid shot of winning the actual NFL award considering his 1,932 yards from scrimmage are 276 more than anyone else and he's tied for the most touchdowns scored at 21. He's just two away from matching Jerry Rice's franchise record (although the GOAT WR did it in just 12 games due to a strike season), and he could get it with a game to spare to lead fantasy managers to the promised land against Washington's pushover defense.
  
  
• Staying in the Bay Area, the splits with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are fascinating. In the 11 games that both have finished, they have identical 81.42% snap rates and 22.52% target shares with Samuel running routes on 89.77% of the dropbacks to Aiyuk's 89.49%. Deebo's unparalleled nose for the end zone gives him a PPG edge of 17.65 to 16.46 in those contests, and he does benefit from 2.67 carries for extra opportunities. Aiyuk is the more refined pure WR who relies a bit more on big plays, as his league-leading 18.5 yards per reception indicates, and his 1,203 receiving yards paces the team. If Samuel gets 166 receiving yards these last two weeks to hit the century mark, these two and George Kittle (currently at 991 yards), could become just the sixth trio in NFL history to all hit 1,000 yards and the first since 2008 Cardinals. That team was led to the Super Bowl by Kurt Warner, whom you may have heard has some similarities with a certain 49ers' QB.
  
  
  
  
  
• Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are another pair of teammates whose splits I've been keeping an eye on. On the surface level, Gibbs is averaging 17.52 points with a 56.83% snap rate, a strong 15.12% target share, and only 43.75% of the RB carries in the 13 games he's played. In the 11 games that Montgomery has played more than one half in, his numbers are 16.40, 50.60%, 6.18%, and 63.21%. Now if you look only at the 10 games in which both have played, the rookie is at 16.11, 51.66%, 15.20%, 36.63% to the veteran's 17.72, 48.48%, 4.86%, and 62.27% that is largely buoyed by goal line carries.
  
  As you can tell, Gibbs' overall PPG average is definitely boosted by the 27.6 and 29.9 he scored in the two games as the workhorse. However, he's still been trending up since the Week 9 bye even with Montgomery's return. From Week 10 on, their splits are 18.77, 57.92%, 14.41%, and 43.58% for Gibbs against Monty's 16.60, 41.04%, 5.51%, and 56.42%. Even though veteran deference doesn't lead to being the "starter," the electric 1st round pick's passing game role has led to more snaps and more total points thanks to getting some more red zone looks than when he was eased into his first few weeks.
  
  
• Another Lion who has seen more usage since the bye is Jameson Williams. The 2022 1st round pick hasn't had the smoothest start to his career between a torn ACL and suspension, so it's understandable that he was only used sparingly in his first four games this season after becoming eligible to play. His route participation got above 50% for the first time after the bye and has mostly been trending up since then. It's been 65.38% over the past two weeks (with a 62.76% snap rate), and Williams has earned 18.31% of the targets in this span. That's only amounted to 8.7 and 9.3 fantasy points, but it's a step in the right direction.
  
  
• A WR that I wish I talked about earlier is Demarcus Robinson because I wrote in my Week 13 and 14 notes that he's been seeing more time than Tutu Atwell since Week 12, but I haven't put together a post since then. It should be pointed out that the latter suffered a concussion early in Week 14, but even when he returned this past game, it was only for 4 snaps. In contrast, Robinson went from barely playing (33 total offensive snaps in the first 10 games) to suddenly seeing 59.7% of the snaps and running routes on 61.76% of the dropbacks in Week 12. He followed that up with 59.38% and 54.05% in Week 13 while earning a 14.71% target share and a touchdown.
  
  Then Atwell started missing time, and Robinson was bumped up to 85.71% of the snaps, 97.67% of the routes, and a 26.32% target share in a #revengegame against his former Ravens teammates. From that week on, he's checked in at a 90.99% snap rate, 97.41% route participation, and a 18.63% target share to average 16.17 points over these past three games. Since the Rams always ride their starters hard with almost exclusively 11 personnel, I'm counting on this stark difference in usage over Atwell continuing. Yes, finding the end zone in four straight games is inflating Robinson's point total to an extent, but catching all 6 targets for 82 yards this past week shows that he can provide a solid floor even if the TD streak ends. Even as the #3 receiving weapon, Robinson can get by with that target share as Matthew Stafford continues to play at a high level.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another sleeper I'm counting on in one of my Finals is Gerald Everett at tight end. After missing Week 11 with a chest injury, he's averaged 10.4 points over the past five games with a strong 18.23% target share despite only being in on 65.76% of the snaps and 66.04% of the routes. Things could be trending up, though, as those were up to 70% and a season-high 82.05% this past week in the first game under Giff Smith as interim coach. Everett has also seen exactly 8 targets in all three games that backup quarterback Easton Stick has played, and the Broncos are one of the worst teams in the league at defending TEs.
  
  
• Finishing up back at RB, Chase Brown has low-key been a story over the last four weeks. The 5th round rookie was one of my favorite sleepers in this class but played just eight total offensive snaps in the first seven games before spending time on Injured Reserve with a hamstring injury. He didn't get a snap in the first game back after being activated, but Brown is averaging 60 total yards per game for 9.3 PPR points from Week 13 on. Busting a screen pass for a 54 yard TD accounts for a chunk of that, but he's looked impressive in just 20.97% of the snaps while seeing 31.11% of the RB carries.
  
  Interestingly enough, Joe Mixon has been on a tear since the rookie's introduction to the offense. After averaging only 13.48 points through the first 11 games, he's averaged 18.83 while playing 66.29% of the snaps and getting 67.78% of the RB carries over the past four weeks. His 12.68% target share in this span isn't that much higher than it normally is, so keeping up this pace will likely be tough to do when he's not averaging a TD per game. Looking ahead to next season, it's debatable whether Mixon will still be around after he already had to take a pay cut this year. That's where Brown could factor in if he continues to expand his role down the stretch here.